<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 3.16%) 在過去幾年讓投資者驚歎不已，似乎以不斷的勢頭攀升，達到了創紀錄的水平。該股票甚至在去年飆升至超過 $1,000，隨後公司進行了股票拆分，以降低每股價格。所有這一切都得益於英偉達在當今最受關注的市場之一：人工智能（AI）中的地位。</p>
<p>分析師預計這一市場將在整個十年內爆炸性增長，而我們迄今為止看到的發展也支持了這一觀點。科技巨頭們正在其人工智能項目上投資數十億美元——許多公司已經開始看到這些努力的成果。例如，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的雲計算部門去年發佈了 $1150 億的收入年化率，因為客户選擇了其人工智能產品和服務。</p>
<p>所有這些都幫助英偉達的收益不斷攀升。直到最近，股價也隨之上漲，但對整體經濟的擔憂超過了對英偉達財務結果和未來前景的樂觀情緒。事實上，就在上週，英偉達的股票做了一件近三年來未曾做過的事情。讓我們來看看這一舉動，並考慮歷史會告訴我們接下來會發生什麼。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyMzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtc3VycHJpc2VkLWJ1c2luZXNzLXBlcnNvbi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyMzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtc3VycHJpc2VkLWJ1c2luZXNzLXBlcnNvbi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達的 “死亡交叉”</h2>
<p>無論你是投資新手還是已經購買股票多年，你可能聽説過技術分析。它涉及查看歷史市場數據，以預測股票可能的下一步動作。它通常與短期投資相關，因為它可以指導你在特定時刻買入或賣出，以潛在獲利。在技術分析的世界中，英偉達的股票剛剛發生了一個重大變化。上週，其 50 日移動平均線（在給定時間段內的平均價格趨勢）首次跌破 200 日移動平均線，形成了所謂的 “死亡交叉”。</p>
<p>而死亡交叉表明負面動能正在增強，並可能成為一種持續的趨勢。現在讓我們考慮一下英偉達股票在上一次死亡交叉後的表現——在 2022 年 4 月。該指標準確預測了接下來的走勢，因為英偉達的股票從那時起到年底下跌了約 45%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50 日簡單移動平均數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>另一次類似的變化發生在 2018 年 11 月，英偉達的股票在接下來的九個月中下跌了超過 40%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50 日簡單移動平均數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>那麼，這是否意味着英偉達絕對會進入一個持續的虧損期，你應該遠離這隻股票？不一定。重要的是要記住，儘管技術分析在許多情況下能夠成功檢測短期趨勢，但它並未考慮基本面——例如出色的盈利記錄——或公司可能隨時報告的積極消息。日內交易者發現這些模式很有用，因為他們在幾個小時或幾天內進行買賣，但長期投資者不應讓技術趨勢影響他們的投資決策——有兩個關鍵原因。</p>
<h2>一家公司的真實價值</h2>
<p>首先，如前所述，技術分析並未考慮公司通過其基本面所衡量的真實價值。它基本上指示你在短期內何時可能買入或賣出以獲得收益。但是，為了潛在獲得更大的勝利，你最好在數年內押注於一只優質股票，以便在公司在其市場中成長和發展時受益。</p>
<p>其次，對某隻股票的情緒——在這種情況下是英偉達——可能會在一夜之間發生變化。在任何時候，如果對英偉達施加壓力的關鍵外部因素髮生變化，股票可能會飆升。例如，如果特朗普政府放寬最新的進口關税或與貿易伙伴達成協議，這一消息可能會提振英偉達的股價。因此，對於長期投資者來説，最好在估值看起來合理時買入股票，而不是試圖等待最低水平。</p>
<p>時機把握市場是非常困難的，如果你嘗試這樣做，可能會錯過機會（並花費過多時間盯着電腦屏幕）。值得注意的是，英偉達在過去的死亡交叉期後曾大幅上漲——在 2022 年死亡交叉後的 18 個月內上漲超過 85%，在 2018 年事件後的兩年內上漲約 140%。</p>
<h2>為什麼英偉達可能會獲勝</h2>
<p>所有這些意味着，最好將對潛在短期模式的擔憂放在一邊，關注公司在未來幾年的前景。在這種情況下，英偉達給我們提供了許多對未來充滿熱情的理由。</p>
<p>該公司是人工智能芯片的領導者，其對創新的關注應能保持這一勢頭。而且英偉達不僅在創造出色的收入，而且還以高水平的盈利能力實現這一目標——每個季度的毛利率超過 70%。考慮到這些因素，英偉達的股票目前以 25 倍的未來收益預期交易，低於今年早些時候的 50 倍，價格看起來非常合理。</p>
<p>因此，即使歷史表明英偉達的負面動能可能會持續，精明的投資者也可能將其視為以合理價格買入該股票的機會——然後持有並可能在長期內獲勝。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票最近形成了 “死亡交叉”，其 50 日移動平均線跌破了 200 日平均線，顯示出潛在的負面動能。歷史上，這種模式通常會導致顯著的下跌，英偉達在 2022 年 4 月經歷類似事件後下跌了 45%。然而，長期投資者被建議關注公司的基本面和在人工智能市場的增長潛力，因為英偉達在過去的死亡交叉後強勁反彈，在 2022 年後的 18 個月內上漲超過 85%，在 2018 年後的兩年內上漲了 140%</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.16%) amazed investors over the past few years, climbing with what seemed like nonstop momentum to reach record levels. The stock even soared beyond $1,000 last year before the company launched its stock split, a move to lower the per-share price. All of this is thanks to Nvidia's position in one of today's most-watched markets: artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 3.16%) 在過去幾年讓投資者驚歎不已，似乎以不斷的勢頭攀升，達到了創紀錄的水平。該股票甚至在去年飆升至超過 $1,000，隨後公司進行了股票拆分，以降低每股價格。所有這一切都得益於英偉達在當今最受關注的市場之一：人工智能（AI）中的地位。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect this market to explode higher throughout the decade, and developments we've seen so far support this idea. Tech giants are investing billions of dollars in their AI programs -- and many already are starting to see the efforts bear fruit. For example, <strong>Amazon</strong>'s cloud computing arm last year posted a $115 billion revenue run rate as customers opted for its AI products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計這一市場將在整個十年內爆炸性增長，而我們迄今為止看到的發展也支持了這一觀點。科技巨頭們正在其人工智能項目上投資數十億美元——許多公司已經開始看到這些努力的成果。例如，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的雲計算部門去年發佈了 $1150 億的收入年化率，因為客户選擇了其人工智能產品和服務。</p>
</div><p>All of this has helped Nvidia's earnings to climb. The share price followed until recently, as concerns about the general economy outweighed optimism about Nvidia's financial results and future prospects. In fact, just last week, Nvidia stock did something it hasn't done for nearly three years. Let's take a look at this move, and consider what history says will happen next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些都幫助英偉達的收益不斷攀升。直到最近，股價也隨之上漲，但對整體經濟的擔憂超過了對英偉達財務結果和未來前景的樂觀情緒。事實上，就在上週，英偉達的股票做了一件近三年來未曾做過的事情。讓我們來看看這一舉動，並考慮歷史會告訴我們接下來會發生什麼。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyMzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtc3VycHJpc2VkLWJ1c2luZXNzLXBlcnNvbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812237%2Fgettyimages-surprised-business-person.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's &#34;death cross&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的 “死亡交叉”</h2>
</div><p>Whether you're new to investing or have been buying stocks for years, you may have heard of technical analysis. It involves looking at historical market data to predict what a stock may do next. It's often associated with shorter-term investing as it could guide you to buy or sell at a specific moment to potentially benefit. Well, in the world of technical analysis, Nvidia stock just made a big move. Its 50-day moving average (an average price trend over a given period of time) last week passed below its 200-day moving average, forming what's known as a &#34;death cross.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論你是投資新手還是已經購買股票多年，你可能聽説過技術分析。它涉及查看歷史市場數據，以預測股票可能的下一步動作。它通常與短期投資相關，因為它可以指導你在特定時刻買入或賣出，以潛在獲利。在技術分析的世界中，英偉達的股票剛剛發生了一個重大變化。上週，其 50 日移動平均線（在給定時間段內的平均價格趨勢）首次跌破 200 日移動平均線，形成了所謂的 “死亡交叉”。</p>
</div><p>And a death cross suggests negative momentum is picking up and that it could become a lasting trend. Now let's consider how Nvidia stock performed following its last death cross -- back in April of 2022. The measure was an accurate predictor of what was to come, as Nvidia stock sank about 45% from that point through the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而死亡交叉表明負面動能正在增強，並可能成為一種持續的趨勢。現在讓我們考慮一下英偉達股票在上一次死亡交叉後的表現——在 2022 年 4 月。該指標準確預測了接下來的走勢，因為英偉達的股票從那時起到年底下跌了約 45%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50-Day Simple Moving Average data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 50 日簡單移動平均數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Another such move happened in November 2018, and Nvidia stock went on to drop more than 40% in the following nine months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一次類似的變化發生在 2018 年 11 月，英偉達的股票在接下來的九個月中下跌了超過 40%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50-Day Simple Moving Average data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 50 日簡單移動平均數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>So, does this mean Nvidia absolutely is heading for a sustained period of losses and that you should stay away from the stock? Not necessarily. It's important to remember that though technical analysis may on many occasions successfully detect short-term trends, it doesn't take into account fundamentals -- such as a great earnings track record -- or positive news that the company may report at any moment. Day traders find these patterns useful as they buy and sell in a matter of hours or days, but long-term investors shouldn't let a technical trend affect their investing decisions -- for two key reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，這是否意味着英偉達絕對會進入一個持續的虧損期，你應該遠離這隻股票？不一定。重要的是要記住，儘管技術分析在許多情況下能夠成功檢測短期趨勢，但它並未考慮基本面——例如出色的盈利記錄——或公司可能隨時報告的積極消息。日內交易者發現這些模式很有用，因為他們在幾個小時或幾天內進行買賣，但長期投資者不應讓技術趨勢影響他們的投資決策——有兩個關鍵原因。</p>
</div><h2>The true value of a company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家公司的真實價值</h2>
</div><p>First, as mentioned, technical analysis doesn't consider the true value of a company as measured by its fundamentals. It basically indicates when you might buy or sell in the near term to post a gain. But, to potentially score an even bigger win, you're better off betting on a quality stock for a number of years so that you can benefit as the company grows and develops in its market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，如前所述，技術分析並未考慮公司通過其基本面所衡量的真實價值。它基本上指示你在短期內何時可能買入或賣出以獲得收益。但是，為了潛在獲得更大的勝利，你最好在數年內押注於一只優質股票，以便在公司在其市場中成長和發展時受益。</p>
</div><p>Second, sentiment about a given stock -- in this case, Nvidia -- may shift overnight. At any point, if a key external element that's weighing on Nvidia changes, the stock could take off. For example, if the Trump administration loosens up the latest tariffs on imports or reaches an agreement with trade partners, that news may lift Nvidia shares. So, for the long-term investor, it's best to buy a stock when the valuation looks reasonable rather than attempting to wait for the very lowest level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，對某隻股票的情緒——在這種情況下是英偉達——可能會在一夜之間發生變化。在任何時候，如果對英偉達施加壓力的關鍵外部因素髮生變化，股票可能會飆升。例如，如果特朗普政府放寬最新的進口關税或與貿易伙伴達成協議，這一消息可能會提振英偉達的股價。因此，對於長期投資者來説，最好在估值看起來合理時買入股票，而不是試圖等待最低水平。</p>
</div><p>It's very difficult to time the market, and if you try, you may miss out on opportunities (and spend way too much time starting at your computer screen). It's important to note that Nvidia went on to roar higher after past death cross periods -- more than 85% in the 18 months following the 2022 death cross and about 140% in the two years following the 2018 event.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>時機把握市場是非常困難的，如果你嘗試這樣做，可能會錯過機會（並花費過多時間盯着電腦屏幕）。值得注意的是，英偉達在過去的死亡交叉期後曾大幅上漲——在 2022 年死亡交叉後的 18 個月內上漲超過 85%，在 2018 年事件後的兩年內上漲約 140%。</p>
</div><h2>Why Nvidia could win</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼英偉達可能會獲勝</h2>
</div><p>All of this means it's best to set aside concerns about potential short-term patterns and focus on a company's prospects over the coming years. In this case, Nvidia offers us plenty of reasons to be enthusiastic about what's to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些意味着，最好將對潛在短期模式的擔憂放在一邊，關注公司在未來幾年的前景。在這種情況下，英偉達給我們提供了許多對未來充滿熱情的理由。</p>
</div><p>The company is the AI chip leader, and its focus on innovation should keep this going. And Nvidia's not only generating standout revenue, but it's also doing this at a high level of profitability -- with gross margin of more than 70% each quarter. Considering these points, trading for 25 times forward earnings estimates down from 50 earlier this year, Nvidia stock looks very reasonably priced today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司是人工智能芯片的領導者，其對創新的關注應能保持這一勢頭。而且英偉達不僅在創造出色的收入，而且還以高水平的盈利能力實現這一目標——每個季度的毛利率超過 70%。考慮到這些因素，英偉達的股票目前以 25 倍的未來收益預期交易，低於今年早些時候的 50 倍，價格看起來非常合理。</p>
</div><p>So, even if history suggests Nvidia's negative momentum could continue, savvy investors may use this as an opportunity to get in on the stock for a good price -- then hold on and potentially win over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使歷史表明英偉達的負面動能可能會持續，精明的投資者也可能將其視為以合理價格買入該股票的機會——然後持有並可能在長期內獲勝。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Just Did This for the First Time in 3 Years. Here's What History Says Will Happen Next

- Nvidia 股票近期出現 “死亡交叉”，50 日均線跌破 200 日均線。
- 歷史數據顯示，此現象後股價可能下跌，但長期投資者應關注基本面。
- Nvidia 在 AI 芯片領域領先，未來前景樂觀，當前估值合理。

英偉達股票三年來首次出現這種情況。歷史告訴我們接下來會發生什麼