<p>儘管情緒在投資中可能會發揮作用，但華爾街主要是一個以數據驅動的市場。季度運營結果和近乎每日（週一至週五）的經濟數據發佈為投資者提供了大量的信息供其分析。</p>
<p>但每個季度最重要的數據揭示或許是來自美國最知名億萬富翁資金管理者的 13F 表格申報。</p>
<p>13F 表格為投資者提供了華爾街領先資產管理者（管理資產至少為 1 億美元）所購買、出售和持有的股票的簡明快照。儘管這些快照在提交時可能已經有多達 45 天的歷史，但它們仍然可以為投資者提供有關哪些股票、行業、部門和趨勢是最聰明的資金管理者所青睞的寶貴見解。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yZWZsZWN0aW9uLWdsYXNzZXMtbGFwdG9wLWJ1eS1zZWxsLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yZWZsZWN0aW9uLWdsYXNzZXMtbGFwdG9wLWJ1eS1zZWxsLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>關於季度 13F 申報，特別值得注意的是觀察到股市上最成功的億萬富翁投資者如何看待華爾街的人工智能（AI）寵兒 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.66%）。而專注的億萬富翁基金經理——我所説的 “專注” 是指持有 100 個或更少證券的基金——一直在持續減少或完全拋售 Nvidia 股票，但有一位知名億萬富翁卻沒有出售一股。</p>
<h2>這位億萬富翁是 Nvidia 最大的看漲者嗎？</h2>
<p>有十多位億萬富翁資金管理者管理着集中投資組合，證券數量在 10 到 100 之間。在這些人中，有四位一直在持續出售 Nvidia 股票：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Coatue Management 的 Philippe Laffont</strong>：自 2023 年第一季度以來出售了 39,795,532 股 Nvidia。</li>
<li><strong>Appaloosa Management 的 David Tepper</strong>：自 2023 年第三季度以來出售了 9,569,999 股。</li>
<li><strong>Lone Pine Capital 的 Stephen Mandel</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以來出售了其基金的全部股份 6,416,490 股。</li>
<li><strong>Duquesne Family Office 的 Stanley Druckenmiller</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以來出售了其基金的全部股份 9,500,750 股。</li>
</ul>
<p>請注意，這些股份數量已根據 Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月進行的 10 比 1 的前向股票拆分進行了調整。</p>
<p>而在另一端，有一位億萬富翁基金經理沒有兑現一股：Tiger Global Management 的 Chase Coleman。</p>
<p>截至 2024 年底，Coleman 管理着近 265 億美元的資產，分散在 49 只股票中。Tiger 的億萬富翁首席對創新驅動的科技股、AI 革命和 Nvidia 充滿信心。在 2024 年，Coleman 堅定持有 Tiger Global 投資組合中的 9,683,550 股經過拆分調整的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<p>唯一另一位專注的億萬富翁買家是 Viking Global Investors 的 Ole Andreas Halvorsen，他去年開設了 2,031,985 股的頭寸。Coleman 的持股幾乎是 Halvorsen 的五倍。</p>
<p>Coleman 對 Nvidia 未來的堅定樂觀可能源於其在高計算數據中心中對圖形處理單元（GPU）市場份額的絕對主導地位。該公司的 Hopper（H100）及其後續的 Blackwell GPU 架構在 AI 數據中心中佔據主導地位，龐大的訂單積壓和卓越的定價能力使 Nvidia 能夠持續超越華爾街的共識預期。</p>
<p>高性能 AI-GPU 的稀缺性也對 Nvidia 有利。即使全球領先的芯片製造公司 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong> 正在迅速提升其芯片 - 晶圓 - 基板的生產能力，這對於在 AI 加速的數據中心中包裝高帶寬內存是必要的，Nvidia 及其競爭對手也無法快速銷售 AI-GPU。擁有最快和最受歡迎的硬件使 Nvidia 能夠對其同行收取 100% 到 300% 的單價溢價。</p>
<p>Chase Coleman 對創新的熱愛可能也在促使他希望保留其基金的全部 9.68 百萬股 Nvidia 股份。新推出的 Blackwell GPU 在能效方面顯著優於其前身，但它的設計旨在顯著加速生成性 AI 和量子計算的計算。</p>
<p>到目前為止，Coleman 的樂觀態度和不願出售一股的決心已經得到了豐厚的回報！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>大多數億萬富翁對 Nvidia 股票持謹慎態度</h2>
<p>但每個硬幣都有兩面，絕大多數億萬富翁資金管理者一直是 Nvidia 股票的淨賣家。儘管該公司具有明確的競爭優勢以及其 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的卓越計算速度，但億萬富翁 Philippe Laffont、David Tepper、Stephen Mandel 和 Stanley Druckenmiller 可能已經注意到了一些明顯的缺陷。</p>
<p>最明顯的可能是對競爭將加劇的預期，這將不斷削弱 Nvidia 在企業 AI 數據中心的壟斷市場份額。雖然焦點往往集中在那些生產自己 AI-GPU 的直接競爭對手（例如 <strong>超威半導體</strong>）上，但更大的擔憂可能來自 Nvidia 自身的頂級客户。</p>
<p>在過去兩年中，華爾街的 AI 寵兒獲得了來自 “大七” 大多數成員的鉅額訂單。但許多這些按淨銷售額計算的頂級客户正在開發自己的 AI 芯片，以幫助生成性 AI 解決方案和大型語言模型的訓練。儘管這些內部開發的解決方案可能沒有 Nvidia 的硬件那麼快，但它們必然會便宜得多且更容易獲得。這使得 Nvidia 在 2025 年之後可能會失去寶貴的數據中心市場份額。</p>
<p>這四位億萬富翁可能對可能形成的人工智能泡沫有所保留。在過去的 30 多年裏，每一項顛覆性的技術/創新，包括互聯網，都經歷過泡沫破裂事件。這反映了投資者一貫高估新技術在主流市場上被採納和獲得實用性的速度。這導致了最終未能實現的高期望，以及泡沫的破裂。</p>
<p>沒有哪隻股票比英偉達更直接地受益於人工智能的崛起，預計到 2025 財年（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日），其淨銷售額中超過 88% 來自數據中心部門。如果人工智能泡沫形成並破裂，英偉達的股票很可能會受到重創。</p>
<p>充其量，英偉達在經歷了其拋物線式的上漲後，仍需很長時間才能與其當前估值相匹配。最糟糕的情況下，股東可能面臨類似電梯般的下跌。</p>

英偉達

<p>Tiger Global Management 的 Chase Coleman 是少數沒有出售英偉達股票的億萬富翁基金經理之一，仍持有 968 萬股的顯著股份。相比之下，包括 Philippe Laffont 和 David Tepper 在內的幾位知名億萬富翁已經出售了大量英偉達股票。Coleman 對英偉達的信心源於其在 GPU 市場的主導地位和創新技術，儘管對 AI 領域競爭加劇的擔憂依然存在。大多數億萬富翁投資者對英偉達保持謹慎態度，強調其市場份額面臨的潛在風險</p>

<p>Although emotions can come into play when investing, Wall Street is primarily a data-driven landscape. Quarterly operating results and near-daily (Monday through Friday) economic data releases give investors plenty to comb over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管情緒在投資中可能會發揮作用，但華爾街主要是一個以數據驅動的市場。季度運營結果和近乎每日（週一至週五）的經濟數據發佈為投資者提供了大量的信息供其分析。</p>
</div><p>But perhaps the most important data reveal of each quarter is Form 13F filings from America's most-prominent billionaire money managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每個季度最重要的數據揭示或許是來自美國最知名億萬富翁資金管理者的 13F 表格申報。</p>
</div><p>A 13F provides investors with a concise snapshot of which stocks Wall Street's leading asset managers -- those with at least $100 million in assets under management (AUM) -- have been buying, selling, and holding. Even though these snapshots are up to 45 days old when filed, they can still provide valuable insight into which stocks, industries, sectors, and trends the smartest money managers are flocking to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>13F 表格為投資者提供了華爾街領先資產管理者（管理資產至少為 1 億美元）所購買、出售和持有的股票的簡明快照。儘管這些快照在提交時可能已經有多達 45 天的歷史，但它們仍然可以為投資者提供有關哪些股票、行業、部門和趨勢是最聰明的資金管理者所青睞的寶貴見解。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yZWZsZWN0aW9uLWdsYXNzZXMtbGFwdG9wLWJ1eS1zZWxsLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812188%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-reflection-glasses-laptop-buy-sell-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>What's been particularly noteworthy about quarterly 13F filings is seeing how the stock market's most-successful billionaire investors have approached Wall Street's artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.66%). Whereas focused billionaire fund managers -- by &#34;focused,&#34; I mean a fund with 100 or fewer securities -- have been persistently paring down or completely jettisoning Nvidia stock, one well-known billionaire hasn't sold a single share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於季度 13F 申報，特別值得注意的是觀察到股市上最成功的億萬富翁投資者如何看待華爾街的人工智能（AI）寵兒 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.66%）。而專注的億萬富翁基金經理——我所説的 “專注” 是指持有 100 個或更少證券的基金——一直在持續減少或完全拋售 Nvidia 股票，但有一位知名億萬富翁卻沒有出售一股。</p>
</div><h2>Is this billionaire Nvidia's biggest bull?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這位億萬富翁是 Nvidia 最大的看漲者嗎？</h2>
</div><p>There are more than one dozen billionaire money managers who oversee a concentrated portfolio ranging from 10 to 100 securities. Among these, four have been persistent sellers of Nvidia stock:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有十多位億萬富翁資金管理者管理着集中投資組合，證券數量在 10 到 100 之間。在這些人中，有四位一直在持續出售 Nvidia 股票：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management</strong>: Sold 39,795,532 shares of Nvidia since the first quarter of 2023.</li>
<li><strong>David Tepper of Appaloosa Management</strong>: Sold 9,569,999 shares since the third quarter of 2023.</li>
<li><strong>Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital</strong>: Sold his fund's entire stake of 6,416,490 shares since the second quarter of 2023.</li>
<li><strong>Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office</strong>: Sold his fund's entire stake of 9,500,750 shares since the second quarter of 2023.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Coatue Management 的 Philippe Laffont</strong>：自 2023 年第一季度以來出售了 39,795,532 股 Nvidia。</li>
<li><strong>Appaloosa Management 的 David Tepper</strong>：自 2023 年第三季度以來出售了 9,569,999 股。</li>
<li><strong>Lone Pine Capital 的 Stephen Mandel</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以來出售了其基金的全部股份 6,416,490 股。</li>
<li><strong>Duquesne Family Office 的 Stanley Druckenmiller</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以來出售了其基金的全部股份 9,500,750 股。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Note, these share counts have been adjusted for Nvidia's historic 10-for-1 forward stock split undertaken in June 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請注意，這些股份數量已根據 Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月進行的 10 比 1 的前向股票拆分進行了調整。</p>
</div><p>On the other end of the spectrum is the one billionaire fund manager who hasn't cashed in a single share: Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而在另一端，有一位億萬富翁基金經理沒有兑現一股：Tiger Global Management 的 Chase Coleman。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of 2024, Coleman was overseeing close to $26.5 billion in AUM, which was spread across 49 stocks. Tiger's billionaire chief is a big believer in innovation-driven tech stocks, the AI revolution, and Nvidia. Throughout 2024, Coleman held firm to the 9,683,550 split-adjusted shares of Nvidia in Tiger Global's portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年底，Coleman 管理着近 265 億美元的資產，分散在 49 只股票中。Tiger 的億萬富翁首席對創新驅動的科技股、AI 革命和 Nvidia 充滿信心。在 2024 年，Coleman 堅定持有 Tiger Global 投資組合中的 9,683,550 股經過拆分調整的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><p>The only other focused billionaire who's been a buyer is Viking Global Investors' Ole Andreas Halvorsen, who opened a 2,031,985-share position last year. Coleman's stake in nearly five times the size of Halvorsen's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一另一位專注的億萬富翁買家是 Viking Global Investors 的 Ole Andreas Halvorsen，他去年開設了 2,031,985 股的頭寸。Coleman 的持股幾乎是 Halvorsen 的五倍。</p>
</div><p>The likely reason Coleman remains steadfastly optimistic about Nvidia's future is its utter dominance of graphics processing unit (GPU) market share in high-compute data centers. The company's Hopper (H100) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture are dominating in AI data centers, with extensive backlogs and superior pricing power allowing Nvidia to consistently blow past Wall Street's consensus expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coleman 對 Nvidia 未來的堅定樂觀可能源於其在高計算數據中心中對圖形處理單元（GPU）市場份額的絕對主導地位。該公司的 Hopper（H100）及其後續的 Blackwell GPU 架構在 AI 數據中心中佔據主導地位，龐大的訂單積壓和卓越的定價能力使 Nvidia 能夠持續超越華爾街的共識預期。</p>
</div><p>The scarcity of high-powered AI-GPUs has also worked in Nvidia's favor. Even with world-leading chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> rapidly ramping up its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity, which is necessary for the packaging of high-bandwidth memory in AI-accelerated data centers, Nvidia and its competitors can't sell AI-GPUs fast enough. Having the fastest and most in-demand hardware has allowed Nvidia to charge between a 100% to 300% per-unit premium to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高性能 AI-GPU 的稀缺性也對 Nvidia 有利。即使全球領先的芯片製造公司 <strong>台灣半導體制造公司</strong> 正在迅速提升其芯片 - 晶圓 - 基板的生產能力，這對於在 AI 加速的數據中心中包裝高帶寬內存是必要的，Nvidia 及其競爭對手也無法快速銷售 AI-GPU。擁有最快和最受歡迎的硬件使 Nvidia 能夠對其同行收取 100% 到 300% 的單價溢價。</p>
</div><p>Chase Coleman's love for innovation is likely playing a role in his desire to hang onto his fund's entire 9.68-million-share Nvidia stake, as well. The newly introduced Blackwell GPU is considerably more energy efficient than its predecessor, but it's designed to notably speed up computation for generative AI and quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chase Coleman 對創新的熱愛可能也在促使他希望保留其基金的全部 9.68 百萬股 Nvidia 股份。新推出的 Blackwell GPU 在能效方面顯著優於其前身，但它的設計旨在顯著加速生成性 AI 和量子計算的計算。</p>
</div><p>Thus far, Coleman's optimism and unwillingness to sell a single share have paid off, <em>big-time</em>!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，Coleman 的樂觀態度和不願出售一股的決心已經得到了豐厚的回報！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812188%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Most billionaires are wary of Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大多數億萬富翁對 Nvidia 股票持謹慎態度</h2>
</div><p>But there are two sides to every coin, and the vast majority of billionaire money managers have been net sellers of Nvidia stock. Despite the company's well-defined competitive advantages and the superior computing speed of its Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, billionaires Philippe Laffont, David Tepper, Stephen Mandel, and Stanley Druckenmiller have likely homed in on a few glaring flaws.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每個硬幣都有兩面，絕大多數億萬富翁資金管理者一直是 Nvidia 股票的淨賣家。儘管該公司具有明確的競爭優勢以及其 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的卓越計算速度，但億萬富翁 Philippe Laffont、David Tepper、Stephen Mandel 和 Stanley Druckenmiller 可能已經注意到了一些明顯的缺陷。</p>
</div><p>Arguably the most obvious is the expectation that competition will pick up and continually strip away Nvidia's monopoly like market share in enterprise AI-data centers. While the focus tends to be on the direct competitors that are producing AI-GPUs of their own (e.g., <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>), the bigger worry might come from Nvidia's own top customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最明顯的可能是對競爭將加劇的預期，這將不斷削弱 Nvidia 在企業 AI 數據中心的壟斷市場份額。雖然焦點往往集中在那些生產自己 AI-GPU 的直接競爭對手（例如 <strong>超威半導體</strong>）上，但更大的擔憂可能來自 Nvidia 自身的頂級客户。</p>
</div><p>Over the last two years, Wall Street's AI darling has secured some mammoth orders from most members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34; But many of these top customers by net sales are developing AI chips of their own that can assist with generative AI solutions and the training of large language models. Even though these internally developed solutions may not be as fast as Nvidia's hardware, they're bound to be substantially cheaper and more readily available. It's a recipe for Nvidia to lose out on valuable data center real estate beyond 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩年中，華爾街的 AI 寵兒獲得了來自 “大七” 大多數成員的鉅額訂單。但許多這些按淨銷售額計算的頂級客户正在開發自己的 AI 芯片，以幫助生成性 AI 解決方案和大型語言模型的訓練。儘管這些內部開發的解決方案可能沒有 Nvidia 的硬件那麼快，但它們必然會便宜得多且更容易獲得。這使得 Nvidia 在 2025 年之後可能會失去寶貴的數據中心市場份額。</p>
</div><p>This billionaire quartet might also have reservations about a possible AI bubble forming. For more than 30 years, every game-changing technology/innovation, including the internet, has endured a bubble-bursting event. This is a reflection of investors consistently overestimating how quickly a new technology will be adopted on a mainstream basis and gain utility. It leads to lofty expectations that are, eventually, not met, and the bursting of a bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這四位億萬富翁可能對可能形成的人工智能泡沫有所保留。在過去的 30 多年裏，每一項顛覆性的技術/創新，包括互聯網，都經歷過泡沫破裂事件。這反映了投資者一貫高估新技術在主流市場上被採納和獲得實用性的速度。這導致了最終未能實現的高期望，以及泡沫的破裂。</p>
</div><p>No stock has benefited more directly from the rise of AI than Nvidia, with more than 88% of its net sales deriving from its data center segment in fiscal 2025 (ended Jan. 26, 2025). If an AI bubble were to form and burst, it's logical to expect Nvidia stock to take it on the chin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有哪隻股票比英偉達更直接地受益於人工智能的崛起，預計到 2025 財年（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日），其淨銷售額中超過 88% 來自數據中心部門。如果人工智能泡沫形成並破裂，英偉達的股票很可能會受到重創。</p>
</div><p>At best, Nvidia has a long way to go before it grows into its current valuation following its parabolic move higher. At worst, shareholders could be facing an elevator-like move lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>充其量，英偉達在經歷了其拋物線式的上漲後，仍需很長時間才能與其當前估值相匹配。最糟糕的情況下，股東可能面臨類似電梯般的下跌。</p>
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Meet One of the Only Billionaire Money Managers Who Isn't Selling Nvidia Stock

- 美國億萬富翁投資者的 13F 文件揭示了他們的股票買賣情況。  
- 大多數億萬富翁經理對 Nvidia 股票持賣出態度，擔心競爭加劇。  
- Chase Coleman 仍持有 Nvidia 股票，因其在 AI 數據中心的市場主導地位。

認識一下為數不多的沒有出售英偉達股票的億萬富翁基金經理之一