<p>一些投資者正在密切關注他們所持有的股票，並問自己是否能夠承受經濟放緩的影響。美國總統唐納德·特朗普對貿易伙伴的關税威脅以及美聯儲最近關於經濟不確定性的評論引發了人們的擔憂。</p>
<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -2.19%) 的投資者也未能倖免於這些擔憂。自年初以來，亞馬遜的股票已經下跌了 8%。但這次拋售是否過度反應了呢？</p>
<p>讓我們考慮一下亞馬遜在未來 12 個月可能面臨的一些障礙，以及公司可能繼續增長的一些方式。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE2NTY1NTg3NC0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE2NTY1NTg3NC0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>對亞馬遜的悲觀展望</h2>
<p>一些經濟學家擔心，特朗普總統可能願意發動貿易戰，最終可能會使美國陷入衰退。<strong>摩根大通</strong> 最近將其對今年發生衰退的概率預測從 30% 上調至 40%。</p>
<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近在談到經濟時表示，經濟&#34;不確定性非常高&#34;，這進一步加劇了人們對衰退的擔憂。1 月份，消費者支出首次下降，顯示出美國人正在減少消費。</p>
<p>亞馬遜按收入計算的最大業務是其北美電子商務銷售。該部門在第四季度的銷售額達到了 1156 億美元，比去年同期增長了 10%。但根據美聯儲的説法，消費者支出正在減緩，消費者信心也在減弱。如果發生全面衰退甚至放緩，可能會導致美國人進一步收緊開支。</p>
<h2>對亞馬遜的樂觀展望</h2>
<p>儘管對消費者支出在今年放緩的擔憂是合理的，但並不能保證這會影響亞馬遜的收入和利潤。即使在經濟低迷時期，亞馬遜也是一傢俱有韌性的公司。</p>
<p>例如，在 2008 年金融危機期間，該公司的銷售額增長了 29%，在 COVID 疫情的第一年，其收入增長了 22%。人們幾乎可以在亞馬遜的市場上購買到他們所需的任何東西。在經濟下行期間，客户可能會改變他們在平台上的消費習慣，但不會完全放棄。</p>
<p>亞馬遜在電子商務領域佔據主導地位，市場份額約為 40%。這遠遠超過了其最接近的競爭對手 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong>，後者的市場份額約為 5%。即使在衰退期間，美國人也不太可能停止在線購買商品，因此這一強勢地位使亞馬遜在應對放緩時佔據了優勢。</p>
<p>雖然我主要關注亞馬遜的電子商務業務，但該公司一半的運營收入來自其雲計算服務——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。這一部門應該有助於推動亞馬遜的增長，因為公司正在加大對人工智能雲計算的支出。</p>
<p><strong>高盛</strong> 估計，未來五年全球人工智能雲計算銷售額將達到 2 萬億美元，而亞馬遜肯定會受益。該公司在雲市場中佔據 30% 的份額，<strong>微軟</strong> 以 21% 位居第二。公司們目前正處於人工智能競賽中，即使在經濟下行期間，也不太可能停止支出以保持競爭優勢。</p>
<h2>最可能的情景</h2>
<p>我認為亞馬遜並非對嚴重的經濟放緩免疫，但該公司在雲計算和電子商務中的主導地位可能會在衰退發生時減輕衝擊。</p>
<p>更重要的是，長期投資者應該記住，購買股票意味着你對公司的前景持樂觀態度，預計未來許多年都會如此。即使我們面臨放緩，亞馬遜的股票現在也比幾個月前便宜。</p>
<p>現在以折扣價購買股票，即使未來仍有更多不確定性，也可能證明是一個明智的舉動。亞馬遜在雲計算和電子商務領域的領先地位不會很快消失。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜的股票今年因經濟放緩的擔憂下跌了 8%，市場對潛在貿易戰和消費者支出下降表示擔憂。然而，亞馬遜在電子商務和雲計算領域的強大地位可能幫助其度過經濟衰退。歷史上，該公司在經濟低迷期間也曾實現銷售增長。分析師建議，儘管存在不確定性，現在投資亞馬遜可能是有利的，因為其股票目前價格較低，且其市場主導地位預計將持續</p>

<p>Some investors are looking closely at the stocks they own and asking themselves if they could weather an economic slowdown. U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs against trading partners and recent comments by the Federal Reserve about uncertainty in the economy are sparking fears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投資者正在密切關注他們所持有的股票，並問自己是否能夠承受經濟放緩的影響。美國總統唐納德·特朗普對貿易伙伴的關税威脅以及美聯儲最近關於經濟不確定性的評論引發了人們的擔憂。</p>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.19%) investors aren't immune from the concerns. Amazon's stock has tumbled 8% since the beginning of the year. But is the sell-off an overreaction?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -2.19%) 的投資者也未能倖免於這些擔憂。自年初以來，亞馬遜的股票已經下跌了 8%。但這次拋售是否過度反應了呢？</p>
</div><p>Let's consider some of the hurdles Amazon could face over the next 12 months, as well as some likely ways the company may continue growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們考慮一下亞馬遜在未來 12 個月可能面臨的一些障礙，以及公司可能繼續增長的一些方式。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE2NTY1NTg3NC0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812265%2Fgettyimages-2165655874-1201x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The pessimistic outlook for Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對亞馬遜的悲觀展望</h2>
</div><p>Some economists are concerned that President Trump's potential willingness to start trade wars could eventually tip the U.S. into a recession. <strong>J.P. Morgan</strong> recently changed its prediction on the probability of a recession occurring this year, from 30% likelihood to 40% currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些經濟學家擔心，特朗普總統可能願意發動貿易戰，最終可能會使美國陷入衰退。<strong>摩根大通</strong> 最近將其對今年發生衰退的概率預測從 30% 上調至 40%。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently added some fuel to the recession fears fire when he said that economic &#34;uncertainty is remarkably high.&#34; Consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years in January, indicating that Americans are pulling back on purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近在談到經濟時表示，經濟&#34;不確定性非常高&#34;，這進一步加劇了人們對衰退的擔憂。1 月份，消費者支出首次下降，顯示出美國人正在減少消費。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's largest business by revenue is its North American e-commerce sales. That segment brought in $115.6 billion in sales in the fourth quarter, a 10% increase from the year-ago quarter. But consumer spending is moderating and consumer confidence is weakening, according to the Fed. If a full-blown recession or even a slowdown occurs, it could result in Americans tightening their belts further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜按收入計算的最大業務是其北美電子商務銷售。該部門在第四季度的銷售額達到了 1156 億美元，比去年同期增長了 10%。但根據美聯儲的説法，消費者支出正在減緩，消費者信心也在減弱。如果發生全面衰退甚至放緩，可能會導致美國人進一步收緊開支。</p>
</div><h2>The optimistic view of Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對亞馬遜的樂觀展望</h2>
</div><p>While there are legitimate concerns about consumer spending slowing this year, there's no guarantee it'll affect Amazon's top or bottom lines. Amazon is a resilient company, even during dismal economic times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對消費者支出在今年放緩的擔憂是合理的，但並不能保證這會影響亞馬遜的收入和利潤。即使在經濟低迷時期，亞馬遜也是一傢俱有韌性的公司。</p>
</div><p>For example, the company's sales rose 29% during the 2008 financial crisis, and in the first year of the COVID pandemic, its revenue increased 22%. People can buy nearly anything they need on Amazon's marketplace. During downturns, customers may shift their spending habits on the platform, but not abandon it entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在 2008 年金融危機期間，該公司的銷售額增長了 29%，在 COVID 疫情的第一年，其收入增長了 22%。人們幾乎可以在亞馬遜的市場上購買到他們所需的任何東西。在經濟下行期間，客户可能會改變他們在平台上的消費習慣，但不會完全放棄。</p>
</div><p>Amazon holds a dominant e-commerce position, with about 40% market share. That easily outpaces its closest rival, <strong>Walmart</strong>, which has about 5% of the market. Americans aren't likely to stop buying goods online even during a recession, so this strong position gives Amazon the upper hand in riding out a slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜在電子商務領域佔據主導地位，市場份額約為 40%。這遠遠超過了其最接近的競爭對手 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong>，後者的市場份額約為 5%。即使在衰退期間，美國人也不太可能停止在線購買商品，因此這一強勢地位使亞馬遜在應對放緩時佔據了優勢。</p>
</div><p>And while I've focused mostly on Amazon's e-commerce business, the company makes half of its operating income from its cloud computing services, Amazon Web Services (AWS). This segment should help fuel Amazon's growth, because companies are ramping up artificial intelligence cloud computing spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我主要關注亞馬遜的電子商務業務，但該公司一半的運營收入來自其雲計算服務——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。這一部門應該有助於推動亞馬遜的增長，因為公司正在加大對人工智能雲計算的支出。</p>
</div><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> estimates that global AI cloud computing sales will reach $2 trillion over the next five years, and Amazon is sure to benefit. The company holds 30% of the cloud market, with <strong>Microsoft</strong> in second place with 21%. Companies are locked in an AI race right now, and even a downturn is unlikely to stop them from spending to stay ahead of the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 估計，未來五年全球人工智能雲計算銷售額將達到 2 萬億美元，而亞馬遜肯定會受益。該公司在雲市場中佔據 30% 的份額，<strong>微軟</strong> 以 21% 位居第二。公司們目前正處於人工智能競賽中，即使在經濟下行期間，也不太可能停止支出以保持競爭優勢。</p>
</div><h2>The most likely scenario</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最可能的情景</h2>
</div><p>I don't think Amazon is immune from a severe economic slowdown, but the company's dominant position in cloud computing and e-commerce can likely soften the blow if a recession occurs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為亞馬遜並非對嚴重的經濟放緩免疫，但該公司在雲計算和電子商務中的主導地位可能會在衰退發生時減輕衝擊。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, long-term investors should remember that buying a stock means you have an optimistic outlook for the company for many years to come. Even if we get a slowdown, Amazon's shares are cheaper than they were just a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，長期投資者應該記住，購買股票意味着你對公司的前景持樂觀態度，預計未來許多年都會如此。即使我們面臨放緩，亞馬遜的股票現在也比幾個月前便宜。</p>
</div><p>Buying the stock now, at a discount, could prove to be a smart move even if there's more uncertainty down the road. Amazon's lead in cloud computing and e-commerce isn't going away anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在以折扣價購買股票，即使未來仍有更多不確定性，也可能證明是一個明智的舉動。亞馬遜在雲計算和電子商務領域的領先地位不會很快消失。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 投資者擔憂經濟放緩，亞馬遜股價年初以來下跌 8%。  
- 經濟不確定性加劇，消費者支出首次下降，可能影響亞馬遜銷售。  
- 然而，亞馬遜在雲計算和電商領域的主導地位有助於其抵禦經濟衝擊。  

亞馬遜股票一年後會達到什麼水平？