<p>作者：Angela Palumbo</p>
<p>迪士尼的《獅子王》教會觀眾 “hakuna matata” 意味着無憂無慮，但隨着消費者信心下降和競爭加劇，投資者卻感到擔憂。</p>
<p>華特迪士尼公司的股價今年已下跌 12%，跌至不到 100 美元，而標準普爾 500 指數則下跌了 4.6%。隨着公司在主題公園進行重大更新並推出新一批遊輪，消費者感到經濟壓力加大。</p>
<p>最新的零售銷售報告低於預期，消費者信心正在下滑。經濟環境不確定，新關税政策即將生效，通貨膨脹依然頑固。本月早些時候，幾家航空公司下調了當前季度的業績預期，原因是消費者信心減弱。</p>
<p>競爭也在加劇。佛羅里達的環球影城進行了重大更新；其新的 Epic Universe 主題公園計劃於 5 月開幕。顧客可能會選擇在那兒度假，而不是在華特迪士尼世界。</p>
<p>儘管如此，BofA 證券和摩根大通的分析師對迪士尼的體驗部門的短期表現仍持樂觀態度。</p>
<p>迪士尼的體驗部門包括主題公園和遊輪，是公司運營收入的最大貢獻者。今年 2 月，公司報告稱第一季度體驗運營收入受到負面影響。國內公園與體驗的運營收入在經歷颶風和遊輪預開支後下降了 5%。</p>
<p>BofA 分析師 Jessica Reif Ehrlich 對該部門的反彈充滿信心。她在週五的研究報告中寫道，第二季度將反映出 “體驗部門運營收入的逐步改善，隨後在第三季度和第四季度加速”，這得益於與去年相比，去年受到前往巴黎奧運會的旅行轉移和頑固通脹的影響。</p>
<p>Ehrlich 對迪士尼的評級為買入，目標價為 140 美元，她對公司最新遊輪迪士尼寶藏號的表現也充滿信心，該遊輪於 12 月啓航。迪士尼計劃在未來幾年增加更多遊輪。</p>
<p>摩根大通的 David Karnovsky 對迪士尼的評級為增持，目標價為 130 美元。他對體驗部門也持樂觀態度，並在 3 月 11 日的報告中寫道：“我們對該部門的長期盈利能力持樂觀態度，因為資本支出將投入到新的產能和遊輪中，定價也將進一步優化。”</p>
<p>迪士尼在 8 月宣佈了其主題公園的一些重大更新。公司在 D23 活動中表示，迪士尼世界的魔法王國將進行 “有史以來最大的土地擴展”，包括基於迪士尼反派和電影《汽車總動員》的新景點。好萊塢影城也將新增《怪獸電力公司》的景點。</p>
<p>“計劃中的迪士尼公園擴展在很大程度上依賴於受歡迎的知識產權，應該能激勵新遊客和回頭客的到訪，” Karnovsky 寫道。</p>
<p>與此同時，投資者將不得不決定是否要繼續這趟旅程。</p>
<p>請聯繫 Angela Palumbo，郵箱：angela.palumbo@dowjones.com</p>
<p>此內容由 Barron's 創作，Barron's 由道瓊斯公司運營。Barron's 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>

迪士尼

<p>迪士尼的股票今年下跌了 12%，原因是消費者信心減弱以及來自環球影業的競爭加劇。儘管經濟環境嚴峻，體驗部門的營業收入也有所下降，但美銀和摩根大通的分析師對迪士尼的復甦仍持樂觀態度。他們預測，隨着新景點和遊輪的推出，體驗部門將會有所改善。美銀給予迪士尼 “買入” 評級，目標價為 140 美元，而摩根大通則給予 “增持” 評級，目標價為 130 美元。對迪士尼樂園的重大更新也預計將提升遊客量</p>

<p>By Angela Palumbo</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Angela Palumbo</p>
</div><p>Disney's Lion King taught viewers that hakuna matata means no worries, but investors are worried about the stock as consumer confidence wanes and competition heats up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼的《獅子王》教會觀眾 “hakuna matata” 意味着無憂無慮，但隨着消費者信心下降和競爭加劇，投資者卻感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Walt Disney have dropped 12% this year to less than $100 while the S&amp;P 500 has declined 4.6%. As the company puts more money into major updates of its theme parks and introduces a new fleet of cruise ships, consumers are feeling pinched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華特迪士尼公司的股價今年已下跌 12%，跌至不到 100 美元，而標準普爾 500 指數則下跌了 4.6%。隨着公司在主題公園進行重大更新並推出新一批遊輪，消費者感到經濟壓力加大。</p>
</div><p>The latest retail sales report came in below expectations and consumer sentiment is sliding. The economic environment is uncertain with new tariff policies taking effect soon and inflation remaining sticky. Several airline companies cut guidance for the current quarter earlier this month, citing weaker consumer confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的零售銷售報告低於預期，消費者信心正在下滑。經濟環境不確定，新關税政策即將生效，通貨膨脹依然頑固。本月早些時候，幾家航空公司下調了當前季度的業績預期，原因是消費者信心減弱。</p>
</div><p>Competition is also picking up. Universal Studios in Florida underwent a major update; its new Epic Universe theme park is scheduled to open in May. Customers may choose to spend their vacation there instead of at Walt Disney World.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>競爭也在加劇。佛羅里達的環球影城進行了重大更新；其新的 Epic Universe 主題公園計劃於 5 月開幕。顧客可能會選擇在那兒度假，而不是在華特迪士尼世界。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at BofA Securities and J.P. Morgan are still optimistic about the near-term performance of Disney's experiences sector, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，BofA 證券和摩根大通的分析師對迪士尼的體驗部門的短期表現仍持樂觀態度。</p>
</div><p>Disney's experiences segment includes theme parks and cruises and is the company's largest contributor to operating income. In February, the company reported a negative impact on experiences operating income for the first quarter. Domestic Parks &amp; Experiences operating income declined by 5% following hurricanes and cruise pre-opening expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼的體驗部門包括主題公園和遊輪，是公司運營收入的最大貢獻者。今年 2 月，公司報告稱第一季度體驗運營收入受到負面影響。國內公園與體驗的運營收入在經歷颶風和遊輪預開支後下降了 5%。</p>
</div><p>BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich is confident the segment can bounce back. She wrote in a research note on Friday that the second quarter will reflect a &#34;sequential improvement in the Experiences segment operating income which will subsequently accelerate in 3Q and 4Q,&#34; aided by the fact they will be compared to last year, which was impacted by diverted travel to the Paris Olympics and sticky inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BofA 分析師 Jessica Reif Ehrlich 對該部門的反彈充滿信心。她在週五的研究報告中寫道，第二季度將反映出 “體驗部門運營收入的逐步改善，隨後在第三季度和第四季度加速”，這得益於與去年相比，去年受到前往巴黎奧運會的旅行轉移和頑固通脹的影響。</p>
</div><p>Ehrlich, who rates Disney a Buy with a $140 price target, is also confident in the performance of the company's newest cruise ship, the Disney Treasure, which set sail in December. Disney plans on adding more cruise ships in coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ehrlich 對迪士尼的評級為買入，目標價為 140 美元，她對公司最新遊輪迪士尼寶藏號的表現也充滿信心，該遊輪於 12 月啓航。迪士尼計劃在未來幾年增加更多遊輪。</p>
</div><p>J.P. Morgan's David Karnovsky rates Disney as Overweight with a $130 price target. He's also optimistic about the experiences sector and wrote in a note on March 11 that &#34;we're bullish on the long-term earnings power of this segment as capex is deployed into new capacity and cruises, and pricing is further refined.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通的 David Karnovsky 對迪士尼的評級為增持，目標價為 130 美元。他對體驗部門也持樂觀態度，並在 3 月 11 日的報告中寫道：“我們對該部門的長期盈利能力持樂觀態度，因為資本支出將投入到新的產能和遊輪中，定價也將進一步優化。”</p>
</div><p>Disney announced some major updates to its theme parks in August. The company said at its D23 event that the Magic Kingdom park in Disney World will get its &#34;largest land expansion ever,&#34; including the addition of attractions based on Disney villains and the movie Cars. The Hollywood Studios park is also getting new Monsters, Inc. attractions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼在 8 月宣佈了其主題公園的一些重大更新。公司在 D23 活動中表示，迪士尼世界的魔法王國將進行 “有史以來最大的土地擴展”，包括基於迪士尼反派和電影《汽車總動員》的新景點。好萊塢影城也將新增《怪獸電力公司》的景點。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Planned Disney parks expansions lean heavily on popular IP and should provide incentive for new and repeat visitation,&#34; Karnovsky wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“計劃中的迪士尼公園擴展在很大程度上依賴於受歡迎的知識產權，應該能激勵新遊客和回頭客的到訪，” Karnovsky 寫道。</p>
</div><p>In the meantime, investors will have to decide whether or not they want to stay on this ride.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，投資者將不得不決定是否要繼續這趟旅程。</p>
</div><p>Write to Angela Palumbo at angela.palumbo@dowjones.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請聯繫 Angela Palumbo，郵箱：angela.palumbo@dowjones.com</p>
</div><p>This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 Barron's 創作，Barron's 由道瓊斯公司運營。Barron's 與道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div>

Disney Stock Is Under Pressure. Why Wall Street Is Singing Hakuna Matata.

- 迪士尼股價今年下跌 12%，消費者信心減弱，競爭加劇。  
- 主題公園和郵輪是迪士尼最大收入來源，第一季度運營收入受影響。  
- 分析師對迪士尼體驗部門的短期表現持樂觀態度，預計將逐步改善。

迪士尼股票承壓。為什麼華爾街在唱《無憂無慮》？