<p>數字廣告巨頭 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -4.84%)(GOOGL -4.81%)、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -4.32%) 和 <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -4.40%) 的股票在週五暴跌，截至東部時間下午 1:30，分別下跌了 4.6%、3.5% 和 4.5%。</p>
<p>起初，這一下跌似乎極為嚴重。這些公司都是大型、財務穩健的行業領導者。此外，今天並沒有太多公司特定的新聞。那麼，究竟發生了什麼？</p>
<p>基本上，市場仍然受到特朗普政府關税政策規模和範圍的不確定性困擾，以及這些政策對經濟狀態的潛在殘餘影響。今天發佈了兩項額外的經濟數據，均令人失望，進一步加重了低迷的情緒。這使得市場再次下跌，因為人們似乎越來越預期消費者支出將放緩，這可能會導致廣告支出隨之下降。</p>
<h2>不確定性足以暫停廣告支出</h2>
<p>今天，聯邦儲備委員會首選的通脹指標——2 月份的個人消費支出指數（PCE）發佈，其中 “核心” 數據剔除了波動較大的食品和能源價格，同比增幅為 2.8%，環比增幅為 0.4%。這些數字均高於預期。</p>
<p>此外，備受關注的密歇根大學 3 月份消費者信心指數也發佈，結果同樣不如預期。調查顯示，消費者信心指數為 57，同比下降 28.2%，低於經濟學家預測的已經悲觀的 57.9。</p>
<p>更令人擔憂的是，消費者信心指數的低迷情緒似乎跨越了各個政治團體，甚至包括獨立人士和共和黨人。一些市場預測者將近期的負面消費者信心調查視為政治偏見，認為共和黨或民主黨的情緒在新政黨上台時會立即下降。因此，看到這種低迷情緒蔓延到所有政黨，尤其令人擔憂。</p>
<p>經濟放緩加上持續的通脹壓力可能導致可怕的滯漲情景，這通常對資產估值非常不利。</p>
<p>在大家恐慌之前，經濟是否會陷入衰退並不是一個確定的賭注。關税的影響仍然未知，政府也可能會因市場下跌而撤回部分關税政策。儘管今天消費者信心正在惡化，但關於經濟的 “硬數據” 尚未顯示出顯著的裂痕。</p>
<p>儘管如此，普遍的恐懼、不確定性和懷疑可能會導致公司在短期內減少廣告預算。這無疑會影響到 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌搜索業務和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的核心廣告業務，因為這兩家巨頭分別是全球第一和第二大數字廣告平台。儘管最近對這兩家公司生成性人工智能（AI）努力的熱情高漲，但這些努力是通過各自公司鉅額的核心廣告利潤來資助的。</p>
<p>與此同時，<strong>Netflix</strong> 最近轉向數字廣告，在 2022 年底推出了一個低價的廣告支持層，以維持其訂閲和收入增長。在其最近的 2025 年展望中，<strong>Netflix</strong> 預計其廣告銷售將同比翻倍。因此，<strong>Netflix</strong> 也越來越依賴數字廣告收入，更不用説在經濟下滑時可能也會放緩的訂閲收入。</p>
<h2>現在是買入抄底的時候嗎？</h2>
<p>隨着經濟高度不確定，我們也不清楚我們是否處於或接近此次回調的底部。然而，在這三家公司中，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的市盈率僅為今年盈利預期的 17.5 倍。這個低於市場的倍數似乎相當便宜，並且是 “七大奇蹟” 中最便宜的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>儘管對生成性人工智能侵蝕搜索流量和收入的擔憂存在，但在 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的財務結果中似乎尚未發生。此外，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的雲計算部門現在已經盈利並快速增長，承載着許多生成性人工智能公司，而 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 本身也在與其 Gemini 模型在人工智能競賽中激烈競爭，這些模型的評價和競爭基準都在改善。</p>
<p>儘管目前圍繞這三家公司存在許多不確定性，但 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 今天似乎特別便宜。但底部是否已經到來或即將到來，沒人真的知道。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

奈飛

<p>由於市場對特朗普政府關税政策的不確定性以及令人失望的經濟數據，Alphabet、Meta Platforms 和奈飛的股票大幅下跌。個人消費支出指數顯示通脹高於預期，而消費者信心急劇下降。這一下滑引發了對廣告預算可能減少的擔憂，影響了 Alphabet 和 Meta 的核心業務。儘管存在不確定性，Alphabet 的股票似乎相對於其盈利預期被低估，這引發了人們對是否是時候抄底的猜測</p>

<p>Shares of digital advertising giants <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -4.84%)(GOOGL -4.81%), <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -4.32%), and <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -4.40%) were plunging on Friday, falling 4.6%, 3.5%, and 4.5%, respectively, as of 1:30 p.m. ET.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數字廣告巨頭 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -4.84%)(GOOGL -4.81%)、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -4.32%) 和 <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -4.40%) 的股票在週五暴跌，截至東部時間下午 1:30，分別下跌了 4.6%、3.5% 和 4.5%。</p>
</div><p>At first, the downturn may seem extreme. These companies are each large, financially strong, and leaders in their respective fields. Moreover, there wasn't much in the way of company-specific news today. So, what gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>起初，這一下跌似乎極為嚴重。這些公司都是大型、財務穩健的行業領導者。此外，今天並沒有太多公司特定的新聞。那麼，究竟發生了什麼？</p>
</div><p>Basically, the market continues to be plagued by uncertainty regarding the size and scope of the Trump administration's tariff policies and their potential residual effects on the state of the economy. Today, two additional pieces of economic data were released, with each disappointing and adding to the downbeat mood. That sent the market another leg lower, as there appears to be growing anticipation of a slowdown in consumer spending, which would likely take ad spending down along with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本上，市場仍然受到特朗普政府關税政策規模和範圍的不確定性困擾，以及這些政策對經濟狀態的潛在殘餘影響。今天發佈了兩項額外的經濟數據，均令人失望，進一步加重了低迷的情緒。這使得市場再次下跌，因為人們似乎越來越預期消費者支出將放緩，這可能會導致廣告支出隨之下降。</p>
</div><h2>Uncertainty is enough to pause ad spending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不確定性足以暫停廣告支出</h2>
</div><p>Today, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) from February was released, with the &#34;core&#34; reading stripping out volatile food and energy prices, and coming in at 2.8% year over year and 0.4% month over month. Those figures were higher than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，聯邦儲備委員會首選的通脹指標——2 月份的個人消費支出指數（PCE）發佈，其中 “核心” 數據剔除了波動較大的食品和能源價格，同比增幅為 2.8%，環比增幅為 0.4%。這些數字均高於預期。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the much-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading from March was also released and also worse than expected. The survey showed a reading of 57, down 28.2% from a year ago and below the already-pessimistic 57.9 reading economists had forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，備受關注的密歇根大學 3 月份消費者信心指數也發佈，結果同樣不如預期。調查顯示，消費者信心指數為 57，同比下降 28.2%，低於經濟學家預測的已經悲觀的 57.9。</p>
</div><p>What was more worrying about the consumer sentiment reading was that the downbeat mood appeared to stretch across political groups, even including Independents and Republicans. Some market forecasters have brushed off recent negative consumer sentiment surveys as politically biased, with Republicans' or Democrats' moods declining immediately when a new party takes power. So, to see the sour mood stretching across all political parties was particularly worrisome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人擔憂的是，消費者信心指數的低迷情緒似乎跨越了各個政治團體，甚至包括獨立人士和共和黨人。一些市場預測者將近期的負面消費者信心調查視為政治偏見，認為共和黨或民主黨的情緒在新政黨上台時會立即下降。因此，看到這種低迷情緒蔓延到所有政黨，尤其令人擔憂。</p>
</div><p>A slowdown in the economy combined with still-persistent inflationary pressures could lead to the dreaded stagflation scenario, which is usually really bad for asset valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟放緩加上持續的通脹壓力可能導致可怕的滯漲情景，這通常對資產估值非常不利。</p>
</div><p>Before everyone panics, it's not a sure bet the economy will roll into a recession. The effects of tariffs are still unknown, and the administration could also roll back some of its tariff policies in response to the market downturn. While consumer sentiment is deteriorating today, the &#34;hard data&#34; around the economy hasn't yet shown significant cracks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大家恐慌之前，經濟是否會陷入衰退並不是一個確定的賭注。關税的影響仍然未知，政府也可能會因市場下跌而撤回部分關税政策。儘管今天消費者信心正在惡化，但關於經濟的 “硬數據” 尚未顯示出顯著的裂痕。</p>
</div><p>Still, the mere widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt could very well cause companies to reduce their advertising budgets in the near term. That would certainly affect Alphabet's Google Search business and Meta Platforms' core ad business, as these two giants are the No. 1 and No. 2 digital advertising platforms, respectively, on a global basis. For all of the recent enthusiasm over both companies' generative artificial intelligence (AI) efforts, those efforts are funded through each company's massive core advertising profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，普遍的恐懼、不確定性和懷疑可能會導致公司在短期內減少廣告預算。這無疑會影響到 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌搜索業務和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的核心廣告業務，因為這兩家巨頭分別是全球第一和第二大數字廣告平台。儘管最近對這兩家公司生成性人工智能（AI）努力的熱情高漲，但這些努力是通過各自公司鉅額的核心廣告利潤來資助的。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Netflix has more recently turned to digital ads, introducing a lower-priced, ad-supported tier in late 2022 to maintain its subscriber and revenue growth. In its recent 2025 outlook, Netflix anticipated it would double its advertising sales year over year. So, Netflix is also increasingly dependent on digital advertising dollars, not to mention subscriptions, which could also slow in an economic downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，<strong>Netflix</strong> 最近轉向數字廣告，在 2022 年底推出了一個低價的廣告支持層，以維持其訂閲和收入增長。在其最近的 2025 年展望中，<strong>Netflix</strong> 預計其廣告銷售將同比翻倍。因此，<strong>Netflix</strong> 也越來越依賴數字廣告收入，更不用説在經濟下滑時可能也會放緩的訂閲收入。</p>
</div><h2>Is it time to buy the dip?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是買入抄底的時候嗎？</h2>
</div><p>As the economy remains highly uncertain, it's also unclear whether we are at or near the bottom of this pullback. However, of the three companies listed, Alphabet trades at just 17.5 this year's earnings expectations. That below-market multiple seems quite cheap and is the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven by a wide margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着經濟高度不確定，我們也不清楚我們是否處於或接近此次回調的底部。然而，在這三家公司中，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的市盈率僅為今年盈利預期的 17.5 倍。這個低於市場的倍數似乎相當便宜，並且是 “七大奇蹟” 中最便宜的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOG 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>While there are some concerns over generative AI eating into Search traffic and revenues, that doesn't appear to have happened yet in Alphabet's financial results. Moreover, Alphabet's cloud-computing unit is now profitable and growing fast, hosting many generative AI companies, and Alphabet itself is competing hard in the AI races with its Gemini models, which have seen improving reviews and better competitive benchmarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對生成性人工智能侵蝕搜索流量和收入的擔憂存在，但在 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的財務結果中似乎尚未發生。此外，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的雲計算部門現在已經盈利並快速增長，承載着許多生成性人工智能公司，而 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 本身也在與其 Gemini 模型在人工智能競賽中激烈競爭，這些模型的評價和競爭基準都在改善。</p>
</div><p>While much uncertainty swirls around all three companies at the moment, Alphabet seems to have gotten particularly cheap today. But whether the bottom is in or approaching, nobody really knows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管目前圍繞這三家公司存在許多不確定性，但 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 今天似乎特別便宜。但底部是否已經到來或即將到來，沒人真的知道。</p>
</div>

Why Digital Ad Giants Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Netflix Plunged Today

- 數字廣告巨頭 Alphabet、Meta 和 Netflix 股價大幅下跌，分別下跌 4.6%、3.5% 和 4.5%。  
- 市場對特朗普政府關税政策的不確定性加劇，導致消費者支出放緩預期。  
- 儘管經濟數據不佳，Alphabet 的估值相對便宜，可能吸引投資者關注。  

為什麼數字廣告巨頭 Alphabet、Meta Platforms 和奈飛今天暴跌