<p>沃倫·巴菲特被譽為有史以來最偉大的投資者之一，他的業績也證明了這一點。有趣的是，他被稱為逆向投資者；他不做大家都在做的事情。儘管有無數追隨者和眾多粉絲試圖模仿他的成功，但他的投資方法仍被認為是逆勢而為。</p>
<p>考慮過去兩年發生的事情。這是一個強勁的牛市，這意味着投資者在買入，但 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -1.00%）（BRK.B -0.76%）作為巴菲特的控股公司，在此期間每個季度都是淨賣出股票。在 2024 年第四季度，它連續九個季度淨賣出股票，並以 3340 億美元的現金結束了這一年，創下了歷史最高紀錄。巴菲特已經掌舵伯克希爾哈撒韋 60 年，這讓這一切更具背景。</p>
<p>業餘分析師們一直在剖析巴菲特的交易行為，以看看投資者能從中學到什麼，以及這對市場意味着什麼。具體來説，人們一直在想他是否認為市場崩盤即將來臨。</p>
<p>好吧，時機已經來臨。上週，在特朗普總統的 “解放日” 之後，市場暴跌。巴菲特終於開始買入股票了嗎？</p>
<h2>恐懼與貪婪</h2>
<p>巴菲特多次明確表示，他對購買高估股票不感興趣，並且對強勁的牛市持謹慎態度。</p>
<p>許多人都知道他在 1986 年寫給董事會主席的信中關於恐懼與貪婪的著名信條：“我們只是試圖在別人貪婪時保持恐懼，而在別人恐懼時保持貪婪。”</p>
<p>在同一封信中，他聲稱不知道任何市場會如何波動，但牛市如果與真實的股票價值 “脱鈎”，必然會下跌。“在寫這篇文章時，華爾街幾乎沒有恐懼可見……然而，不幸的是，股票無法無限期地超越企業。” 這時他才會考慮買入。</p>
<h2>便宜貨與價值</h2>
<p>巴菲特的成功顯而易見，他的投資方法也同樣清晰。但投資者仍然發現很難進入巴菲特的思維模式。他以投資被低估的股票而聞名。他在 1986 年的信中繼續説道：“當條件合適時，也就是當具有良好經濟和良好管理的公司以遠低於內在商業價值的價格出售時——股票有時會提供大滿貫的機會。”</p>
<p>但他如何判斷這一點並不總是顯而易見。伯克希爾哈撒韋購買的一個明顯被低估的股票例子是 <strong>克羅格</strong>，它在 2019 年被收購。克羅格是美國最大的高端超市連鎖店，符合巴菲特對在美國經濟中長期角色的公司的標準。但當時它的表現並不好，看看巴菲特買入時的價格有多便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png"/></p>
<p>KR 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>自那時以來，它進行了許多運營變革並復甦，克羅格的股票自伯克希爾哈撒韋購買股份以來上漲了約 170%。</p>
<p>然而，巴菲特和他的團隊最近購買了 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的股票，與近期平均水平相比，這並不顯得那麼便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png"/></p>
<p>POOL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>他們可能在對不同的情景進行對沖，考慮可能的不同結果。事實上，儘管 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC -0.23%）在 2025 年下跌了 13%，泳池公司的股票僅下跌了 7%。</p>
<h2>深陷機會？</h2>
<p>如果巴菲特發現了這種股權產品，即使在高牛市情緒下也能讓公司的資金運作，那麼他很可能會對現在可用的機會感到高興。就在幾周前，在伯克希爾哈撒韋的年度信中，他談到了在股市中尋找便宜貨：“通常，沒有什麼看起來令人信服；我們很少發現自己深陷機會之中。” 他稱讚投資經理格雷格·阿貝爾，稱他 “生動地” 展示了 “在這種時候採取行動的能力”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM4NjkvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM4NjkvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<p>現在可能正是這樣的時機。許多優秀的股票的估值處於幾十年來的低點，包括巴菲特的股票 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>。</p>
<p>不過，我要指出的是，許多巴菲特的股票今天的表現超過了市場。它們是那些在各種情況下都能保持穩定的安全、成熟的股票。巴菲特今天可能不太可能再買入更多這些股票，因為它們並不一定便宜。但他可能會發現一些值得在今天價格下買入的新股票。</p>
<p>我們要等到最早的第一季度報告（包括三月份）才能知道伯克希爾哈撒韋是否打破了其淨賣出股票的記錄。然而，四月份股票進一步下跌，而這個月的交易活動要等到第二季度更新時才能報告。</p>
<p>我對伯克希爾哈撒韋目前的情況並沒有任何瞭解，經濟可能處於你所稱的未知領域。但巴菲特對他的投資方式毫不掩飾，我不會感到驚訝，如果發現他和他的團隊正在尋找今天市場中的便宜貨。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

<p>沃倫·巴菲特以其逆向投資策略而聞名，已經在過去兩年裏出售股票，同時在伯克希爾哈撒韋積累了創紀錄的 3340 億美元現金。儘管市場強勁反彈，他對高估的股票依然保持謹慎。分析師們猜測，在最近的市場下跌後，他是否會重新開始買入。巴菲特的投資哲學強調購買被低估的股票，儘管他最近購買了如 Pool Corp 等股票，但他偏好的許多股票目前並不便宜。下一份報告將揭示伯克希爾是否已轉變為股票的淨買家</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has a reputation as one of the greatest investors ever, and he has the track record to back that up. What's interesting about that is that he's known as a contrarian investor; he doesn't do what everyone else does. Despite myriad followers and legions of fans who try to imitate his success, his method is still considered going against the grain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特被譽為有史以來最偉大的投資者之一，他的業績也證明了這一點。有趣的是，他被稱為逆向投資者；他不做大家都在做的事情。儘管有無數追隨者和眾多粉絲試圖模仿他的成功，但他的投資方法仍被認為是逆勢而為。</p>
</div><p>Consider what's been happening for the past two years. It's been a strong bull market, which means investors are buying, but <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -1.00%) (BRK.B -0.76%), Buffett's holding company, has been a net seller of stocks every quarter throughout. It hit nine straight quarters of net selling stocks in the 2024 fourth quarter, and it ended the year with $334 billion in cash, its largest stockpile ever. Buffett has been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway for 60 years, which puts that into context.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮過去兩年發生的事情。這是一個強勁的牛市，這意味着投資者在買入，但 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -1.00%）（BRK.B -0.76%）作為巴菲特的控股公司，在此期間每個季度都是淨賣出股票。在 2024 年第四季度，它連續九個季度淨賣出股票，並以 3340 億美元的現金結束了這一年，創下了歷史最高紀錄。巴菲特已經掌舵伯克希爾哈撒韋 60 年，這讓這一切更具背景。</p>
</div><p>Armchair analysts have been dissecting Buffett's trading behavior to see what investors can learn from it and what it means about the markets. Specifically, people have been wondering if he thinks there's a market crash on the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>業餘分析師們一直在剖析巴菲特的交易行為，以看看投資者能從中學到什麼，以及這對市場意味着什麼。具體來説，人們一直在想他是否認為市場崩盤即將來臨。</p>
</div><p>Well, the time has come. The markets tumbled last week after President Trump's &#34;Liberation Day.&#34; Is Buffett finally buying stocks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好吧，時機已經來臨。上週，在特朗普總統的 “解放日” 之後，市場暴跌。巴菲特終於開始買入股票了嗎？</p>
</div><h2>Fear and greed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>恐懼與貪婪</h2>
</div><p>Buffett has made it clear on many occasions that he isn't interested in buying overpriced stocks, and that he's wary of a strong bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特多次明確表示，他對購買高估股票不感興趣，並且對強勁的牛市持謹慎態度。</p>
</div><p>Many people know his famous credo about fear and greed from the Chariman's letter Buffett penned in 1986 : &#34;We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多人都知道他在 1986 年寫給董事會主席的信中關於恐懼與貪婪的著名信條：“我們只是試圖在別人貪婪時保持恐懼，而在別人恐懼時保持貪婪。”</p>
</div><p>In that same letter, he claimed not to know how any market would move, but that a bull market that becomes &#34;uncoupled&#34; with true stock values would be bound to fall. &#34;As this is written, little fear is visible in Wall Street...unfortunately, however, stocks can't outperform businesses indefinitely.&#34; That's when he's interested in buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在同一封信中，他聲稱不知道任何市場會如何波動，但牛市如果與真實的股票價值 “脱鈎”，必然會下跌。“在寫這篇文章時，華爾街幾乎沒有恐懼可見……然而，不幸的是，股票無法無限期地超越企業。” 這時他才會考慮買入。</p>
</div><h2>Bargains and value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>便宜貨與價值</h2>
</div><p>Buffett's success is clear, and so is his investing method. But investors still find it challenging to get into Buffett's mindset. He's known for investing in undervalued stocks. his 1986 letter continued, &#34;when conditions are right, that is, when companies with good economics and good management sell well below intrinsic business value -- stocks sometimes provide grand-slam home runs,&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的成功顯而易見，他的投資方法也同樣清晰。但投資者仍然發現很難進入巴菲特的思維模式。他以投資被低估的股票而聞名。他在 1986 年的信中繼續説道：“當條件合適時，也就是當具有良好經濟和良好管理的公司以遠低於內在商業價值的價格出售時——股票有時會提供大滿貫的機會。”</p>
</div><p>But how he determines that isn't always obvious. One example of what was a clearly undervalued stock that Berkshire Hathaway bought is <strong>Kroger</strong>, which it bought in 2019. Kroger is the largest premium supermarket chain in the U.S., which meets Buffett's criteria for a company that has a long-term role in the U.S. economy. But it wasn't doing so well at the time, and look how cheap it got when Buffett bought it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他如何判斷這一點並不總是顯而易見。伯克希爾哈撒韋購買的一個明顯被低估的股票例子是 <strong>克羅格</strong>，它在 2019 年被收購。克羅格是美國最大的高端超市連鎖店，符合巴菲特對在美國經濟中長期角色的公司的標準。但當時它的表現並不好，看看巴菲特買入時的價格有多便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png"/></p>
<p>KR PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KR 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>It has since made many operational changes and rebounded, and Kroger stock is up about 170% since Berkshire Hathaway bought shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，它進行了許多運營變革並復甦，克羅格的股票自伯克希爾哈撒韋購買股份以來上漲了約 170%。</p>
</div><p>However, Buffett and his team recently bought <strong>Pool Corp</strong> stock, which doesn't look so cheap as compared to recent averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，巴菲特和他的團隊最近購買了 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的股票，與近期平均水平相比，這並不顯得那麼便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png"/></p>
<p>POOL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>POOL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>They may have been hedging their bets, considering how different scenarios could play out. Indeed, while the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.23%) is down 13% in 2025, Pool is down 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們可能在對不同的情景進行對沖，考慮可能的不同結果。事實上，儘管 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC -0.23%）在 2025 年下跌了 13%，泳池公司的股票僅下跌了 7%。</p>
</div><h2>Knee-deep in opportunities?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深陷機會？</h2>
</div><p>If Buffett found that kind of equity product to put the company's money to work even under conditions of high bull sentiment, it's likely he's delighting in what's available right now. Just a few weeks ago, in the Berkshire Hathaway annual letter, he spoke about finding bargains in the stock market: &#34;Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities.&#34; He praised investing manager Greg Abel, who's in line to take over Berkshire Hathaway, as &#34;vividly&#34; showing &#34;his ability to act at such times.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果巴菲特發現了這種股權產品，即使在高牛市情緒下也能讓公司的資金運作，那麼他很可能會對現在可用的機會感到高興。就在幾周前，在伯克希爾哈撒韋的年度信中，他談到了在股市中尋找便宜貨：“通常，沒有什麼看起來令人信服；我們很少發現自己深陷機會之中。” 他稱讚投資經理格雷格·阿貝爾，稱他 “生動地” 展示了 “在這種時候採取行動的能力”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM4NjkvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813869%2Fbuffett2-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>Now could very well be such a time. Many excellent stocks are at decades-low valuations, including Buffett stock <strong>Amazon</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在可能正是這樣的時機。許多優秀的股票的估值處於幾十年來的低點，包括巴菲特的股票 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>。</p>
</div><p>I would note, though, that many Buffett stocks are beating the market today. They're the safe, established stocks that hold up under all sorts of circumstances. Buffett may not be likely to buy more of them today because they aren't necessarily cheap. But he might find new stocks that are worth buying at today's prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，我要指出的是，許多巴菲特的股票今天的表現超過了市場。它們是那些在各種情況下都能保持穩定的安全、成熟的股票。巴菲特今天可能不太可能再買入更多這些股票，因為它們並不一定便宜。但他可能會發現一些值得在今天價格下買入的新股票。</p>
</div><p>We won't know if Berkshire Hathaway broke its streak to become a net buyer of stocks until at earliest the first-quarter report, which includes the month of March. However, stocks have moved even lower in April, and trading activity for the month won't be reported until the second-quarter update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們要等到最早的第一季度報告（包括三月份）才能知道伯克希爾哈撒韋是否打破了其淨賣出股票的記錄。然而，四月份股票進一步下跌，而這個月的交易活動要等到第二季度更新時才能報告。</p>
</div><p>I don't have any knowledge of what's happening at Berkshire Hathaway right now, and the economy could be in what you might call uncharted territory. But Buffett's made no secret of how he invests, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he and his team are finding bargains in today's market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我對伯克希爾哈撒韋目前的情況並沒有任何瞭解，經濟可能處於你所稱的未知領域。但巴菲特對他的投資方式毫不掩飾，我不會感到驚訝，如果發現他和他的團隊正在尋找今天市場中的便宜貨。</p>
</div>

Buffett Has Been Stockpiling Cash and Selling Stocks for More Than 2 Years. Is He Finally Buying?

- 巴菲特在強勁牛市中持續淨賣出股票，現金儲備達 3340 億美元。  
- 他堅持在市場貪婪時保持謹慎，尋找被低估的股票。  
- 當前市場低估的優質股票可能吸引他重新投資。  

巴菲特已經囤積現金並出售股票超過兩年了。他現在終於開始買入了嗎？