<p>大型科技股一直是人工智能（AI）革命中最大的受益者之一。儘管自 AI 成為一種重大趨勢以來，科技行業的成長股至少經歷了一定程度的波動，但對於大多數公司來説，這些收益都是短暫的，導致了長期的劇烈波動。</p>
<p>但對於大型科技公司來説，過去幾年收益一直相當穩定。到目前為止，享受最大收益的公司是半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>，其市值已上升了_萬億_，使其成為全球最有價值的公司之一。</p>
<p>雖然擁有 Nvidia 股票幫助一些投資者實現了前所未有的收益和財富，但我認為&#34;七大奇蹟&#34;中的另一位成員是更好的長期機會。讓我們探討 Nvidia 與 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN -2.61%）之間的動態，並評估為什麼這家電子商務和雲計算的明星公司在下一個十年可能更具價值。</p>
<h2>為什麼 Amazon 的增長看起來即將加速</h2>
<p>在過去的二十年裏，Amazon 的業務已經遠遠超出了其電子商務市場。如今，該公司在雲計算基礎設施、廣告、流媒體和娛樂、物流、雜貨配送、訂閲服務等多個領域運營。通過多元化其生態系統，Amazon 獲得了零售和企業消費者的豐厚組合。</p>
<p>在過去的幾年裏，Amazon 一直在悄悄地向多個與 AI 相關的項目投入數十億美元，開始構建其業務的下一個階段。該公司所做的一些優先事項包括向一家名為 Anthropic 的初創公司投資 80 億美元，該公司已成為 Amazon 雲計算平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的重要組成部分。</p>
<p>Amazon 還專注於建立 AI 數據中心、自有定製硅芯片組，並加大對其履行中心的機器人自動化流程的投入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 季度收入數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>如果你查看上面的收入和利潤趨勢，你可能會質疑 Amazon 為什麼要進行這些投資。好吧，只需看看 Nvidia 的增長與 Amazon 的差距。顯然，Nvidia 的收入和利潤曲線的斜率遠遠陡峭於 Amazon。</p>
<p>話雖如此，我要提醒投資者不要低估 Amazon 的潛力。自從與 Anthropic 的合作開始以來，AWS 的收入和運營利潤已經顯著加速。此外，Nvidia 銷售一些開發 AI 所需的最重要的硬件和軟件。換句話説，Nvidia 之所以享受比同行更快的增長，是因為公司需要他們的產品。相比之下，Amazon 在過去兩年裏一直在構建尚未完全擴展的新產品和服務。</p>
<p>基於這些原因，我認為 Amazon 正處於一個新的指數增長的早期階段。接下來，我將詳細説明為什麼 Nvidia 在未來幾年可能面臨顯著放緩。</p>
<h2>為什麼 Nvidia 的增長可能開始停滯</h2>
<p>推動 Nvidia 在過去幾年業務增長的主要動力是對數據中心計算和網絡設備的需求。投資 AI 基礎設施的公司在很大程度上依賴於被稱為圖形處理單元（GPU）的芯片組，而這正是 Nvidia 專注設計的硬件。</p>
<p>一段時間以來，Nvidia 幾乎沒有直接競爭的奢侈。這為公司提供了巨大的議價籌碼，形成了定價權——基本上以溢價出售其 GPU，因為全球各地的公司紛紛排隊購買。</p>
<p>儘管 Nvidia 最新的 GPU 架構 Blackwell 的推出勢頭強勁，但我開始質疑公司的定價權還能持續多久。<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 終於推出了自己的競爭 GPU 系列 MI300 加速器。儘管 AMD 的數據中心 GPU 業務遠不及 Nvidia，但其增長速度很快且保持盈利。此外，AMD 在價格方面能夠與 Nvidia 競爭——這幫助該公司吸引了 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 等 MI300 架構的早期採用者。</p>
<p>除了直接競爭，其他超大規模公司如 Microsoft 和 Alphabet 也在與 Amazon 一起開發他們的定製硅芯片。隨着更多芯片組進入市場，Nvidia 面臨着企業開始將 GPU 視為商品化硬件的風險。</p>
<p>因此，Nvidia 可能被迫放鬆其定價結構，以保持在 GPU 領域的競爭力——這一動態可能會在銷售和利潤率上開始顯現出一些顯著的放緩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQxMjg2MDA2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQxMjg2MDA2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>看一下估值差異</h2>
<p>下圖展示了過去三年 Amazon 和 Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）比率。有趣的是，<strong>納斯達克</strong> 的持續拋售使得兩家公司的市盈率倍數基本收斂到相同的值（大約在 30 左右）。換句話説，儘管 Nvidia 的市值為 2.3 萬億美元，遠高於 Amazon 的 1.8 萬億美元，但兩家公司的市盈率估值相似。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>雖然我確實認為每隻股票都有反彈的潛力，但我認為投資者可能會開始對 Nvidia 施加更多的審視。該公司在過去兩年裏一直火熱，勢頭肯定會在某個時刻停滯。</p>
<p>隨着越來越多的競爭者開始進入英偉達的核心市場，該公司將不得不在人工智能領域的其他方面進行投資，以繼續贏得成長投資者的熱情。相比之下，亞馬遜已經進行了多項投資——其中許多尚未實現規模化和完全見效。</p>
<p>基於這些原因，我認為亞馬遜目前比英偉達更值得買入和持有，因為我認為該公司有望在未來幾年加速銷售和利潤的增長——因此在未來將獲得相對於同行的溢價倍數。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>這篇文章討論了亞馬遜在 2030 年前超越英偉達市值的潛力，強調了亞馬遜在人工智能和雲計算方面的多元化投資。儘管英偉達因其 GPU 而實現了顯著增長，但來自 AMD 和其他科技巨頭的競爭可能會對其定價和利潤率施加壓力。相比之下，亞馬遜的戰略投資，包括與 Anthropic 的 80 億美元合作，使其具備了加速增長的條件，暗示其在長期內可能成為更有價值的公司</p>

<p>Megacap technology stocks have been some of the biggest and longest-standing beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. While growth stocks in the tech sector have experienced at least some form of action since AI emerged as a megatrend, these gains have been fleeting for most companies -- leading to prolonged periods of outsize volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型科技股一直是人工智能（AI）革命中最大的受益者之一。儘管自 AI 成為一種重大趨勢以來，科技行業的成長股至少經歷了一定程度的波動，但對於大多數公司來説，這些收益都是短暫的，導致了長期的劇烈波動。</p>
</div><p>But for big tech, the gains have been quite steady over the last couple of years. The company that has enjoyed the most upside so far is semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>, which has seen its market value rise by <em>trillions</em>-- making it one of the most valuable companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但對於大型科技公司來説，過去幾年收益一直相當穩定。到目前為止，享受最大收益的公司是半導體巨頭 <strong>Nvidia</strong>，其市值已上升了_萬億_，使其成為全球最有價值的公司之一。</p>
</div><p>While owning Nvidia stock has helped some investors realize unprecedented gains and wealth, I see a different member of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; as the better long-term opportunity. Let's explore the dynamics between Nvidia and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.61%) and assess why the e-commerce and cloud computing darling could be the more valuable company by next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然擁有 Nvidia 股票幫助一些投資者實現了前所未有的收益和財富，但我認為&#34;七大奇蹟&#34;中的另一位成員是更好的長期機會。讓我們探討 Nvidia 與 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN -2.61%）之間的動態，並評估為什麼這家電子商務和雲計算的明星公司在下一個十年可能更具價值。</p>
</div><h2>Why Amazon's growth looks poised to accelerate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼 Amazon 的增長看起來即將加速</h2>
</div><p>Over the last two decades Amazon has extended far beyond its e-commerce marketplace. Today, the company operates across cloud computing infrastructure, advertising, streaming and entertainment, logistics, grocery delivery, subscription services, and more. By diversifying its ecosystem, Amazon has acquired a lucrative combination of retail and corporate consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的二十年裏，Amazon 的業務已經遠遠超出了其電子商務市場。如今，該公司在雲計算基礎設施、廣告、流媒體和娛樂、物流、雜貨配送、訂閲服務等多個領域運營。通過多元化其生態系統，Amazon 獲得了零售和企業消費者的豐厚組合。</p>
</div><p>For a couple of years now, Amazon has quietly been pouring billions into a number of AI-related initiatives as it begins to build the next phase of its business. Some of the higher-priority moves the company has made includes investing $8 billion into a start-up called Anthropic, which has become an integral component of the company's cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的幾年裏，Amazon 一直在悄悄地向多個與 AI 相關的項目投入數十億美元，開始構建其業務的下一個階段。該公司所做的一些優先事項包括向一家名為 Anthropic 的初創公司投資 80 億美元，該公司已成為 Amazon 雲計算平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的重要組成部分。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has also been focusing on building AI data centers, its own line of custom silicon chipsets, and doubling down on robotics automation processes for its fulfillment centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 還專注於建立 AI 數據中心、自有定製硅芯片組，並加大對其履行中心的機器人自動化流程的投入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 季度收入數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If you look at the revenue and profit trends above, you might be questioning why Amazon is making these investments in the first place. Well, just check out the disparity between Nvidia's growth and Amazon's. It's clear that the slopes of Nvidia's revenue and profit lines are far steeper than Amazon's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你查看上面的收入和利潤趨勢，你可能會質疑 Amazon 為什麼要進行這些投資。好吧，只需看看 Nvidia 的增長與 Amazon 的差距。顯然，Nvidia 的收入和利潤曲線的斜率遠遠陡峭於 Amazon。</p>
</div><p>With that said, I'd caution investors against dismissing Amazon's potential. Revenue and operating profits in AWS have been accelerating considerably since the Anthropic partnership commenced a couple of years ago. In addition, Nvidia sells some of the most important pieces of hardware and software needed to develop AI. In other words, Nvidia has been enjoying faster gains compared to its peers because companies need their products. Amazon, by contrast, has spent the last two years building new products and services that have yet to fully scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，我要提醒投資者不要低估 Amazon 的潛力。自從與 Anthropic 的合作開始以來，AWS 的收入和運營利潤已經顯著加速。此外，Nvidia 銷售一些開發 AI 所需的最重要的硬件和軟件。換句話説，Nvidia 之所以享受比同行更快的增長，是因為公司需要他們的產品。相比之下，Amazon 在過去兩年裏一直在構建尚未完全擴展的新產品和服務。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I think Amazon is in the early days of a new period of exponential growth. Below, I'll detail why Nvidia may be staring at a considerable slowdown over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於這些原因，我認為 Amazon 正處於一個新的指數增長的早期階段。接下來，我將詳細説明為什麼 Nvidia 在未來幾年可能面臨顯著放緩。</p>
</div><h2>Why Nvidia's growth could begin to stall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼 Nvidia 的增長可能開始停滯</h2>
</div><p>The primary tailwind fueling Nvidia's business for the last couple of years is demand for compute and networking equipment for data centers. Companies investing in AI infrastructure rely heavily on chipsets called graphics processing units (GPUs), which is a piece of hardware that Nvidia specializes in designing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動 Nvidia 在過去幾年業務增長的主要動力是對數據中心計算和網絡設備的需求。投資 AI 基礎設施的公司在很大程度上依賴於被稱為圖形處理單元（GPU）的芯片組，而這正是 Nvidia 專注設計的硬件。</p>
</div><p>For a while, Nvidia had the luxury of virtually no direct competition. This provided the company with an enormous bargaining chip in the form of pricing power -- essentially charging a premium for its GPUs as companies all around the world lined up to buy them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一段時間以來，Nvidia 幾乎沒有直接競爭的奢侈。這為公司提供了巨大的議價籌碼，形成了定價權——基本上以溢價出售其 GPU，因為全球各地的公司紛紛排隊購買。</p>
</div><p>Although the launch of Nvidia's newest GPU architecture, Blackwell, is off to a strong start, I am beginning to question how much longer the company's pricing power is going to last. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has finally launched its own line of competing GPUs, the MI300 accelerators. Although AMD's data center GPU business is much slower than that of Nvidia, it is growing at a fast clip while maintaining profitability. In addition, AMD is able to compete with Nvidia when it comes to price -- which has helped the company attract the likes of <strong>Oracle</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> as early adopters of the MI300 architecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Nvidia 最新的 GPU 架構 Blackwell 的推出勢頭強勁，但我開始質疑公司的定價權還能持續多久。<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 終於推出了自己的競爭 GPU 系列 MI300 加速器。儘管 AMD 的數據中心 GPU 業務遠不及 Nvidia，但其增長速度很快且保持盈利。此外，AMD 在價格方面能夠與 Nvidia 競爭——這幫助該公司吸引了 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 等 MI300 架構的早期採用者。</p>
</div><p>Beyond direct competition, other hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Alphabet are joining Amazon in developing their custom silicon chips. With the addition of more chipsets coming to market, Nvidia faces the risk that businesses begin to see GPUs as a commoditized piece of hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了直接競爭，其他超大規模公司如 Microsoft 和 Alphabet 也在與 Amazon 一起開發他們的定製硅芯片。隨着更多芯片組進入市場，Nvidia 面臨着企業開始將 GPU 視為商品化硬件的風險。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Nvidia may be forced to loosen its pricing structure in order to remain competitive in the GPU realm -- a dynamic that will likely begin to show some meaningful deceleration across sales and profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Nvidia 可能被迫放鬆其定價結構，以保持在 GPU 領域的競爭力——這一動態可能會在銷售和利潤率上開始顯現出一些顯著的放緩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQxMjg2MDA2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813901%2Fgettyimages-1412860060.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Taking a look at valuation disparity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看一下估值差異</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Amazon and Nvidia over the last three years. It's interesting that the ongoing sell-off in the <strong>Nasdaq</strong> has converged both companies' P/E multiples to essentially the same value (hovering right around 30). In other words, although Nvidia's market cap of $2.3 trillion is much higher than Amazon's $1.8 trillion, both businesses are valued similarly on a P/E basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖展示了過去三年 Amazon 和 Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）比率。有趣的是，<strong>納斯達克</strong> 的持續拋售使得兩家公司的市盈率倍數基本收斂到相同的值（大約在 30 左右）。換句話説，儘管 Nvidia 的市值為 2.3 萬億美元，遠高於 Amazon 的 1.8 萬億美元，但兩家公司的市盈率估值相似。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While I do think each stock is poised for a rebound, I think investors may begin to apply some more scrutiny over Nvidia. The company has been sizzling hot for the last two years and the momentum was surely going to stall out at some point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我確實認為每隻股票都有反彈的潛力，但我認為投資者可能會開始對 Nvidia 施加更多的審視。該公司在過去兩年裏一直火熱，勢頭肯定會在某個時刻停滯。</p>
</div><p>Now as more competition begins to enter Nvidia's core market, the company is going to have to invest in other areas of the AI landscape in order to continue winning over enthusiasm from growth investors. By contrast, Amazon has already been making a number of investments -- many of which have yet to scale and fully bear fruit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着越來越多的競爭者開始進入英偉達的核心市場，該公司將不得不在人工智能領域的其他方面進行投資，以繼續贏得成長投資者的熱情。相比之下，亞馬遜已經進行了多項投資——其中許多尚未實現規模化和完全見效。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I think Amazon is the better buy and hold than Nvidia right now, as I think the company is positioned to accelerate both sales and profits for years to come -- hence commanding a premium multiple over its peers down the road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於這些原因，我認為亞馬遜目前比英偉達更值得買入和持有，因為我認為該公司有望在未來幾年加速銷售和利潤的增長——因此在未來將獲得相對於同行的溢價倍數。</p>
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Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia in 2030

- 大型科技股在人工智能革命中受益顯著，尤其是 Nvidia。  
- Amazon 通過多元化業務和 AI 投資，未來增長潛力巨大。  
- Nvidia 面臨競爭加劇，可能導致增長放緩。

預測：這隻人工智能（AI）股票將在 2030 年的價值超過英偉達