<p>在 2023 年 12 月創下歷史新高的五年間，這家知名的面向消費者的企業的股票上漲了驚人的 321%。這一漲幅輕鬆超越了同期 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 的表現。</p>
<p>然而，增長放緩正在讓投資者感到恐慌。這隻成長股目前的交易價格比其歷史最高點低 52%。也許是時候仔細看看了。這個公司現在是否提供了十年一遇的買入機會？</p>
<h2>面對宏觀挑戰</h2>
<p>在 2021 財年，<strong>露露樂蒙</strong>（LULU 10.47%）報告了 42.1% 的年同比收入增長。三年後，這一增長率在 2024 財年（截至 2 月 2 日）降至 10.1%。公平地説，期望 2021 年的那種擴張持續下去並不合理。尤其是在過去幾年疫情對零售行業的影響下，在線購物極為流行。</p>
<p>如今，宏觀經濟因素難以忽視。今年消費者信心急劇下降。美聯儲並不急於降息以促進貸款活動。而持續不確定的關税問題使得沒有人真正知道事情將如何發展。</p>
<p>露露樂蒙從越南採購 40% 的商品，這一點並不令人鼓舞。特朗普總統對來自這個亞洲國家的商品實施了 46% 的新關税，但在談判中暫停了這一關税。這種不確定性讓高管們處於困境。</p>
<p>就目前的情況而言，任何人都很難對露露樂蒙的短期前景持樂觀態度。甚至管理層也採取了謹慎的語氣。首席執行官卡爾文·麥克唐納在 2024 財年第四季度的財報電話會議上提到，&#34;由於對通貨膨脹和經濟的擔憂加劇，消費者的支出減少了，&#34;這是公司最近進行的一項調查的結果。</p>
<h2>關注積極因素</h2>
<p>露露樂蒙可能正在失去投資界的信任。然而，仍然有理由對這家企業保持積極態度。</p>
<p>該公司已經建立了一個強大的品牌，定位於服裝行業的高端市場。高質量的商品不依賴於第三方零售商的銷售，有助於提高消費者的可見度。品牌是露露樂蒙所擁有的競爭優勢。</p>
<p>露露樂蒙的盈利能力令人印象深刻。再次強調，品牌的高端地位支持了定價能力，給公司的底線帶來了好處。在過去五年中，露露樂蒙的毛利率和營業利潤率平均分別為 57.3% 和 21.8%。這是出色的底線表現。</p>
<p>增長在放緩，但露露樂蒙仍在以健康的速度擴張。在當前財年，管理團隊預計收入將增長 5% 至 7%。這與投資者習慣看到的兩位數增長相去甚遠，但比行業巨頭 <strong>耐克</strong> 預測的當前財季兩位數下降要好得多。</p>
<h2>估值與競爭</h2>
<p>一方面，投資於一家增長放緩且大部分產品在當前談判關税的國家生產的服裝和鞋類公司似乎是個錯誤。這增加了許多投資者可能不願接受的不確定性。</p>
<p>另一方面，當前的估值可能完全反映了新的現實。該股的市盈率（P/E）在撰寫時為 16.9，遠低於標準普爾 500 指數。在過去十年中，估值從未如此便宜，突顯了市場對露露樂蒙的極度悲觀。</p>
<p>我認為露露樂蒙的股票值得那些願意接受更多風險的投資者仔細關注，因為在未來五年內有相當大的上行空間。然而，我還不準備説這是十年一遇的買入機會。</p>

露露樂蒙

<p>露露樂蒙的股價從歷史高點下跌了 52%，引發了關於潛在買入機會的討論。該公司在過去經歷了顯著的增長，但現在面臨宏觀經濟挑戰，包括消費者信心下降和關税不確定性。儘管增長預期放緩，露露樂蒙仍保持強勁的盈利能力和競爭品牌地位。與標準普爾 500 指數相比，該股票目前的估值較低，暗示對於風險承受能力強的投資者可能存在上行空間，但對於當前市場情緒仍需保持謹慎</p>

<p>During the five years leading up to their all-time high in December 2023, shares of this well-known, consumer-facing enterprise were up an astonishing 321%. That gain easily crushed what the broader <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> produced during the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年 12 月創下歷史新高的五年間，這家知名的面向消費者的企業的股票上漲了驚人的 321%。這一漲幅輕鬆超越了同期 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 的表現。</p>
</div><p>Slower growth, however, is scaring investors. This growth stock now trades 52% below its record. Maybe it's time to take a closer look. Is this company providing a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，增長放緩正在讓投資者感到恐慌。這隻成長股目前的交易價格比其歷史最高點低 52%。也許是時候仔細看看了。這個公司現在是否提供了十年一遇的買入機會？</p>
</div><h2>Facing macro challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>面對宏觀挑戰</h2>
</div><p>In fiscal 2021, <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 10.47%) reported fantastic year-over-year revenue growth of 42.1%. Fast-forward three years, and that growth rate fell to 10.1% for fiscal 2024 (ended Feb. 2). To be fair, it's not reasonable to expect the type of expansion from 2021 to continue indefinitely. This is particularly true in light of the pandemic's impact on the retail sector over the past few years when online shopping was extremely popular.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 財年，<strong>露露樂蒙</strong>（LULU 10.47%）報告了 42.1% 的年同比收入增長。三年後，這一增長率在 2024 財年（截至 2 月 2 日）降至 10.1%。公平地説，期望 2021 年的那種擴張持續下去並不合理。尤其是在過去幾年疫情對零售行業的影響下，在線購物極為流行。</p>
</div><p>These days, macroeconomic forces are hard to ignore. Consumer confidence has been declining sharply this year. The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates to help boost lending activity. And the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs has created a situation in which no one really knows how things are going to play out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，宏觀經濟因素難以忽視。今年消費者信心急劇下降。美聯儲並不急於降息以促進貸款活動。而持續不確定的關税問題使得沒有人真正知道事情將如何發展。</p>
</div><p>It's not encouraging that Lululemon sources 40% of its merchandise from Vietnam. President Trump implemented a new 46% tariff on goods from this Asian nation, only to pause the tariff amid negotiations. This uncertainty puts executives in a tough spot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>露露樂蒙從越南採購 40% 的商品，這一點並不令人鼓舞。特朗普總統對來自這個亞洲國家的商品實施了 46% 的新關税，但在談判中暫停了這一關税。這種不確定性讓高管們處於困境。</p>
</div><p>As things stand today, it's difficult for anyone to be optimistic about the near-term prospects for Lululemon. Even management is adopting a cautious tone. &#34;Consumers are spending less due to increased concerns about inflation and the economy,&#34; CEO Calvin McDonald said on the fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call about a survey the business recently conducted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就目前的情況而言，任何人都很難對露露樂蒙的短期前景持樂觀態度。甚至管理層也採取了謹慎的語氣。首席執行官卡爾文·麥克唐納在 2024 財年第四季度的財報電話會議上提到，&#34;由於對通貨膨脹和經濟的擔憂加劇，消費者的支出減少了，&#34;這是公司最近進行的一項調查的結果。</p>
</div><h2>Focus on the positives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關注積極因素</h2>
</div><p>Lululemon might be losing the trust of the investment community. However, there are still reasons to remain positive about the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>露露樂蒙可能正在失去投資界的信任。然而，仍然有理由對這家企業保持積極態度。</p>
</div><p>The company has developed a strong brand that's positioned at the premium end of the apparel industry. High-quality merchandise sold without a dependence on third-party retailers helps drive better visibility with consumers. The brand is a competitive advantage that Lululemon possesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司已經建立了一個強大的品牌，定位於服裝行業的高端市場。高質量的商品不依賴於第三方零售商的銷售，有助於提高消費者的可見度。品牌是露露樂蒙所擁有的競爭優勢。</p>
</div><p>Lululemon's profitability is impressive. Again, the brand's high-end status supports pricing power that has benefited the company's bottom line. Lululemon's gross margin and operating margin have averaged 57.3% and 21.8%, respectively, in the past five years. This is outstanding bottom-line performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>露露樂蒙的盈利能力令人印象深刻。再次強調，品牌的高端地位支持了定價能力，給公司的底線帶來了好處。在過去五年中，露露樂蒙的毛利率和營業利潤率平均分別為 57.3% 和 21.8%。這是出色的底線表現。</p>
</div><p>The growth is slowing, but Lululemon is still expanding at a healthy clip. For the current fiscal year, the leadership team expects revenue to increase between 5% and 7%. That's not close to the double-digit gains investors might be used to seeing, but it's much better than the double-digit decline that industry heavyweight <strong>Nike</strong> is forecasting for its current fiscal quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增長在放緩，但露露樂蒙仍在以健康的速度擴張。在當前財年，管理團隊預計收入將增長 5% 至 7%。這與投資者習慣看到的兩位數增長相去甚遠，但比行業巨頭 <strong>耐克</strong> 預測的當前財季兩位數下降要好得多。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation and competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值與競爭</h2>
</div><p>On the one hand, it can seem like a mistake to invest in an apparel and footwear company that's exhibiting slower growth and makes a lot of its products in a country that is currently negotiating tariffs. That adds a lot of uncertainty that investors might not be comfortable with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，投資於一家增長放緩且大部分產品在當前談判關税的國家生產的服裝和鞋類公司似乎是個錯誤。這增加了許多投資者可能不願接受的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the current valuation might fully reflect the new reality. The stock is much cheaper than the S&amp;P 500, trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.9 at the time of this writing (April 8). The valuation has never been cheaper in the past decade, underscoring the market's extreme pessimism toward Lululemon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，當前的估值可能完全反映了新的現實。該股的市盈率（P/E）在撰寫時為 16.9，遠低於標準普爾 500 指數。在過去十年中，估值從未如此便宜，突顯了市場對露露樂蒙的極度悲觀。</p>
</div><p>I believe Lululemon shares deserve a closer look from investors willing to accept more risk, as there is sizable upside over the next five years. However, I'm not ready to say this is a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為露露樂蒙的股票值得那些願意接受更多風險的投資者仔細關注，因為在未來五年內有相當大的上行空間。然而，我還不準備説這是十年一遇的買入機會。</p>
</div>

這個知名消費品牌曾經是一個明星股票。隨着股價下跌 52%，現在是十年一遇的買入機會嗎？