<p><strong>英偉達</strong> 首席執行官黃仁勳在一月份引發了人們對量子計算新興領域的懷疑。他的評論暗示該技術距離商業化應用仍需 15 到 20 年，這被視為對行業前景的重大失望，導致多家公司的股票出現急劇拋售，例如 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 0.69%)、<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -1.74%) 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 0.16%)，這些公司正在開發創新的量子解決方案。</p>
<p>然而，在上個月的英偉達 GPU 技術大會的 “量子日” 活動上，黃仁勳對之前的懷疑態度進行了反轉。他承認自己可能被誤導，轉而擁抱被視為計算技術下一個前沿的量子計算，宣佈對研究進行新的投資。行業領先公司出席了此次活動，藉此機會強調他們最近的突破和顛覆性潛力。</p>
<p>現在量子計算股票值得購買嗎？以下是您需要了解的內容。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxMDEvamVuc2VuLW52aWRpYS1jZW8tYnVsbGlzaC1xdWFudHVtLXN0b2Nrcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxMDEvamVuc2VuLW52aWRpYS1jZW8tYnVsbGlzaC1xdWFudHVtLXN0b2Nrcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>量子計算機的 NISQ 時代</h2>
<p>量子計算機旨在解決機器學習、優化、模擬和密碼學等領域的高度複雜計算，超越包括英偉達高性能 GPU 在內的最先進超級計算機。</p>
<p>與依賴於二進制邏輯的經典計算機不同，量子計算機使用量子比特（qubits），可以在額外維度中同時表示 0、1 或兩者。通過疊加和糾纏，量子系統為獨特任務（如加密）和可能模仿人類思維的下一代人工智能（AI）解鎖了指數級更強的處理能力，而不受訓練數據集的限制。</p>
<p>這項技術是真實存在的，已經有多家公司在追求多樣化的量子架構，每種架構都有其獨特的優勢。IonQ 利用捕獲離子技術，在 2024 年（截至 12 月 31 日）產生了 4700 萬美元的收入，採用其量子計算即服務（QCaaS）模型在雲平台上運營。儘管目前尚未盈利，該公司預計今年收入將幾乎翻倍。類似地，D-Wave Quantum 最近報告有 135 個客户正在探索其量子退火方法的實際應用。在撰寫本文時，其股票在過去一年中上漲了超過 220%。</p>
<p>另一方面，儘管在早期商業進展中取得了一些成就，但該技術仍被認為停留在噪聲中間規模量子（NISQ）時代。當前系統雖然能夠實現量子解決方案，但在顯著擴展量子比特的同時管理不斷上升的錯誤率方面面臨挑戰，限制了它們僅能用於小眾或研究應用，因為它們尚未能夠在可靠的基礎上超越傳統硬件。量子計算行業仍處於早期階段，該領域的純粹公司仍面臨漫長的道路，以證明其潛力。</p>
<h2>長期承諾與短期機會</h2>
<p>黃仁勳在淡化量子計算的短期重要性方面可能至少是部分正確的，因為到目前為止，這並未威脅到英偉達的半導體領導地位。然而，故事遠未結束，突破進入後 NISQ 時代的可能性——這一時代的特徵是擁有數十萬個量子比特和容錯錯誤校正的系統——可能會比預期更早到來。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 這樣的科技巨頭正在推進他們的量子研究與開發，爭奪專家預計到 2040 年將達到 1700 億美元的量子硬件和軟件供應商市場機會。2 月份，微軟推出了其 Majorana 1 量子芯片，採用了一種新穎的方法來穩定量子比特，他們相信這加快了變革性商業量子應用的時間表。即使是英偉達也可能從這一變化的格局中受益，因為其 GPU 與量子芯片在同一技術基礎設施中集成。</p>
<p>與此同時，像 Rigetti Computing 這樣的純量子計算公司在短期內的增長機會顯著，儘管它們的規模仍然相對較小。各行業的早期採用者客户正在大量投資以保持領先，突顯了量子開發的戰略重要性。</p>
<h2>我持謹慎樂觀態度</h2>
<p>投資者在股市中有多種選擇可以進入量子計算領域——從成熟的科技巨頭到新興的顛覆者。儘管近期股市波動劇烈以及對美國經濟強度的擔憂，但人們對量子計算作為技術的長期增長驅動力的信心剛剛開始。</p>
<p>在整個行業經歷深度拋售後，我看到謹慎樂觀的空間，並開始逐步投資於一些被打壓的顛覆者。那些能夠成功實現優越平台貨幣化的公司將在長期內為股東帶來豐厚回報。</p>

QBTS

IONQ

<p>Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳已經改變了他之前對量子計算的懷疑態度，承認可能存在誤判，並宣佈在該領域的新投資。儘管量子技術目前存在侷限性，但 IonQ 和 D-Wave Quantum 等公司正在取得進展，IonQ 的收入達到了 4700 萬美元，而 D-Wave 的股票在過去一年中上漲了超過 220%。預計到 2040 年，量子計算市場將達到 1700 億美元，微軟和 Alphabet 等科技巨頭也在大力投資。投資者被建議謹慎考慮這一新興領域的機會</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong> CEO Jensen Huang made headlines in January, sowing skepticism toward the emerging field of quantum computing. His comments, which suggested the technology was still 15 to 20 years away from being commercially useful, were seen as a major disappointment to industry prospects, triggering a sharp sell-off in shares of several companies, such as <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 0.69%), <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -1.74%), and <strong>Rigetti</strong> <strong>Computing</strong>(RGTI 0.16%), developing innovative quantum solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong> 首席執行官黃仁勳在一月份引發了人們對量子計算新興領域的懷疑。他的評論暗示該技術距離商業化應用仍需 15 到 20 年，這被視為對行業前景的重大失望，導致多家公司的股票出現急劇拋售，例如 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 0.69%)、<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -1.74%) 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 0.16%)，這些公司正在開發創新的量子解決方案。</p>
</div><p>However, at last month's Nvidia GPU Technology Conference during a &#34;Quantum Day&#34; event, Huang made an about-face on his prior doubts. Admitting he may have been misinformed, he pivoted to embrace what is seen as the next frontier in computing technology, announcing new investments into research. Leading industry companies were present, taking the opportunity to highlight their recent breakthroughs and game-changing potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在上個月的英偉達 GPU 技術大會的 “量子日” 活動上，黃仁勳對之前的懷疑態度進行了反轉。他承認自己可能被誤導，轉而擁抱被視為計算技術下一個前沿的量子計算，宣佈對研究進行新的投資。行業領先公司出席了此次活動，藉此機會強調他們最近的突破和顛覆性潛力。</p>
</div><p>Are quantum computing stocks a buy right now? Here's what you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在量子計算股票值得購買嗎？以下是您需要了解的內容。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxMDEvamVuc2VuLW52aWRpYS1jZW8tYnVsbGlzaC1xdWFudHVtLXN0b2Nrcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814101%2Fjensen-nvidia-ceo-bullish-quantum-stocks.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The NISQ era for quantum computers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子計算機的 NISQ 時代</h2>
</div><p>Quantum computers are designed to tackle highly complex calculations in fields like machine learning, optimization, simulations, and cryptography, surpassing even the most advanced supercomputers, including those powered by Nvidia's high-performance GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算機旨在解決機器學習、優化、模擬和密碼學等領域的高度複雜計算，超越包括英偉達高性能 GPU 在內的最先進超級計算機。</p>
</div><p>Unlike classical computers that rely on binary logic, quantum computers use qubits, which can represent 0, 1, or both simultaneously in an additional dimension. Through superposition and entanglement, quantum systems unlock exponentially greater processing power for unique tasks, such as encryption, and for potentially next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) that mimics human thinking unbound by trained datasets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與依賴於二進制邏輯的經典計算機不同，量子計算機使用量子比特（qubits），可以在額外維度中同時表示 0、1 或兩者。通過疊加和糾纏，量子系統為獨特任務（如加密）和可能模仿人類思維的下一代人工智能（AI）解鎖了指數級更強的處理能力，而不受訓練數據集的限制。</p>
</div><p>The technology is real and already present, with multiple companies pursuing diverse quantum architectures, each offering distinct advantages. IonQ, leveraging trapped-ion technology, generated $47 million in revenue in 2024 (for the period ended Dec. 31) with its quantum computing as-a-service (QCaaS) model on cloud platforms. While not currently profitable, the company is projecting to nearly double its revenue this year. Similarly, D-Wave Quantum last reported 135 customers exploring real-world applications with its quantum annealing approach. Its shares are up more than 220% over the past year at the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這項技術是真實存在的，已經有多家公司在追求多樣化的量子架構，每種架構都有其獨特的優勢。IonQ 利用捕獲離子技術，在 2024 年（截至 12 月 31 日）產生了 4700 萬美元的收入，採用其量子計算即服務（QCaaS）模型在雲平台上運營。儘管目前尚未盈利，該公司預計今年收入將幾乎翻倍。類似地，D-Wave Quantum 最近報告有 135 個客户正在探索其量子退火方法的實際應用。在撰寫本文時，其股票在過去一年中上漲了超過 220%。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, despite this early commercial progress, the technology is recognized as still stuck in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era. Current systems, while capable of achieving quantum solutions, face challenges in scaling qubits significantly while managing rising error rates, limiting them to niche or research applications since they are not yet able to outperform conventional hardware on a reliable basis. It's still early for the quantum computing industry, with the pure play companies in the segment still facing a long road ahead to prove their potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，儘管在早期商業進展中取得了一些成就，但該技術仍被認為停留在噪聲中間規模量子（NISQ）時代。當前系統雖然能夠實現量子解決方案，但在顯著擴展量子比特的同時管理不斷上升的錯誤率方面面臨挑戰，限制了它們僅能用於小眾或研究應用，因為它們尚未能夠在可靠的基礎上超越傳統硬件。量子計算行業仍處於早期階段，該領域的純粹公司仍面臨漫長的道路，以證明其潛力。</p>
</div><h2>Long-term promise with near-term opportunities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>長期承諾與短期機會</h2>
</div><p>Jensen Huang may have been at least half-right in downplaying the near-term significance of quantum computing, which thus far does not threaten Nvidia's semiconductor leadership. However, the story is far from over, with a breakthrough into the post-NISQ era -- defined by systems boasting hundreds of thousands of qubits and fault-tolerant error correction -- potentially arriving sooner rather than later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃仁勳在淡化量子計算的短期重要性方面可能至少是部分正確的，因為到目前為止，這並未威脅到英偉達的半導體領導地位。然而，故事遠未結束，突破進入後 NISQ 時代的可能性——這一時代的特徵是擁有數十萬個量子比特和容錯錯誤校正的系統——可能會比預期更早到來。</p>
</div><p>Tech giants like <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are advancing their quantum research and development, competing for a share of what experts estimate is a $170 billion market opportunity for quantum hardware and software providers projected by 2040. In February, Microsoft introduced its Majorana 1 quantum chip, featuring a novel approach to stabilizing qubits that it believes has accelerated the timeline for transformative commercial quantum applications. Even Nvidia could benefit from this shifting landscape, as its GPUs integrate with quantum chips within the same tech infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 這樣的科技巨頭正在推進他們的量子研究與開發，爭奪專家預計到 2040 年將達到 1700 億美元的量子硬件和軟件供應商市場機會。2 月份，微軟推出了其 Majorana 1 量子芯片，採用了一種新穎的方法來穩定量子比特，他們相信這加快了變革性商業量子應用的時間表。即使是英偉達也可能從這一變化的格局中受益，因為其 GPU 與量子芯片在同一技術基礎設施中集成。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, near-term growth opportunities for pure play quantum computing companies, such as Rigetti Computing, are notable for their still relatively small scale. Customers as early adopters across industries are investing heavily to stay ahead, underscoring the strategic importance of quantum development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，像 Rigetti Computing 這樣的純量子計算公司在短期內的增長機會顯著，儘管它們的規模仍然相對較小。各行業的早期採用者客户正在大量投資以保持領先，突顯了量子開發的戰略重要性。</p>
</div><h2>I'm cautiously bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我持謹慎樂觀態度</h2>
</div><p>Investors have multiple options in the stock market to tap into quantum computing -- from established tech giants to emerging disruptors. Beyond the recent extreme stock market volatility and concerns regarding the strength of the U.S. economy, there is confidence that quantum computing as a secular growth driver in technology is just getting started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者在股市中有多種選擇可以進入量子計算領域——從成熟的科技巨頭到新興的顛覆者。儘管近期股市波動劇烈以及對美國經濟強度的擔憂，但人們對量子計算作為技術的長期增長驅動力的信心剛剛開始。</p>
</div><p>Following the deep sell-off in the broader sector, I see room to turn cautiously bullish and begin nibbling at some of these beaten-down disrupters. The companies that can manage to successfully monetize a superior platform will be well positioned to reward shareholders over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在整個行業經歷深度拋售後，我看到謹慎樂觀的空間，並開始逐步投資於一些被打壓的顛覆者。那些能夠成功實現優越平台貨幣化的公司將在長期內為股東帶來豐厚回報。</p>
</div>

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Admits He Was Wrong About Quantum Computing. Are Quantum Stocks Buys Right Now?

- Nvidia CEO 黃仁勳曾對量子計算表示懷疑，稱其商業化仍需 15 至 20 年。  
- 近期他在會議上改變立場，承認可能誤判，並宣佈新投資。  
- 量子計算行業仍處於 NISQ 時代，面臨技術挑戰，但長期前景樂觀。

Motley Fool

Nvidia CEO 黃仁勳承認他對量子計算的看法是錯誤的。量子股票現在是否值得購買？