<p>如今，作為市場做市商的時光令人感到恐懼。最近，密歇根大學的消費者信心指數在四月份驟降至 50.4，這是自 2022 年 6 月以來的最低水平。這一數據也較三月份的 57 點大幅下滑。令投資者擔憂的是，這一數字顯著低於經濟學家預測的 54.5。自然，這一消息對 <strong>亞馬遜公司</strong> AMZN 帶來了重大且負面的影響。</p>
<p>更令人沮喪的是，消費者信心下降的背景也不容樂觀。密歇根大學消費者調查主任 <strong>Joanne Hsu</strong> 表示：“消費者信心連續第四個月下降，較三月份下降了 11%。” 她補充道：“這一下降趨勢與上個月一樣，普遍存在於各個年齡、收入、教育、地理區域和政治派別之間。”</p>
<p>Hsu 在接受彭博電視採訪時表示，惡化的經濟前景在兩個月內跨越了政治光譜。同時，短期和長期的通脹預期正在上升。因此，消費者信心的減弱對亞馬遜的信心幾乎沒有任何提振作用。</p>
<p>然而，市場做市商不能僅僅為潛在的下行風險進行對沖。正如投資者在特朗普總統對部分國家的關税暫停 90 天后，週中交易會的顯著反轉所看到的那樣，在當前政府下，任何事情都有可能發生。</p>
<p>此外，值得指出的是，截至目前，亞馬遜的股票年初至今下跌約 17%。為衍生合約提供流動性的交易者還必須對可能的折扣購買進行對沖。再一次，作為市場做市商的時光令人感到恐懼。</p>
<h2>定價錯誤的亞馬遜股票期權對投機者來説是一個亮點？</h2>
<p>正如俗話所説，一個人的垃圾是另一個人的寶藏。當談到亞馬遜期權時，市場做市商在這一股票週期中提供流動性的艱鉅任務可能為等待機會的投機者打開了大門。而且，可能會有一個錯誤在風險承擔者的 favor。</p>
<p>在正常情況下，悲觀的交易者可能會購買一種稱為看跌價差的多腿期權策略。這些垂直價差之所以被稱為垂直，是因為基礎的多頭和空頭腿之間的行權價差是垂直堆疊的（因此具有相同的到期日）——這些交易是淨借記交易。簡單來説，交易者支付借記以投機某一特定事件的發生（即目標股票將下跌）。</p>
<p>在垂直價差的買方另一端，當然是價差的賣方。賣出信用價差代表一種淨信用交易。具體而言，該頭寸從現金流入頭寸開始。賣方收到借記買方支付的溢價，賭注是時間會在借記交易變得盈利之前耗盡。</p>
<p>對於賣方而言，收到的溢價——即現金流入的金額——可以視為安全邊際或 “信用邊際”。本質上，這是交易可以逆向移動而仍然盈利的金額。然而，一旦邊際被超出，借記買方就處於盈利狀態。在這種情況下，邊際的上升赤字反映了信用價差爆炸的責任。</p>
<p>使某些亞馬遜股票看跌價差在此時如此引人注目的原因在於上述信用邊際處於借記一側；也就是説，時間衰減（theta）有利於買方。當風險建模在試圖適應所有情況時失控時，可能會出現不尋常的定價動態。這可能就是目前亞馬遜看跌期權所發生的情況。</p>
<h2>獲取免費賠率</h2>
<p>希望從價格建模混亂中獲利的投機者可能會考慮在 4 月 17 日到期的看跌價差，短腿行權價為 185 美元。具體而言，190/185 的看跌價差對投機者來説看起來很有吸引力。這筆交易涉及購買 190 美元的看跌期權（在撰寫時的要價為 935 美元）並同時出售 185 美元的看跌期權（在出價為 625 美元）。</p>
<p>因此，短期看跌期權的收益部分抵消了長期看跌期權的借記，導致淨借記為 310 美元。如果亞馬遜在到期時跌至或低於 185 美元的短行權價，交易者將獲得最高獎勵 190 美元，代表超過 61% 的回報。</p>
<p>亞馬遜在公開市場上的股票交易價格低於短行權目標。換句話説，這筆交易在紙面上已經對借記買方有利可圖。一旦時間過去，如果情況保持不變，風險承擔者就會獲勝。</p>
<p>使亞馬遜在定價失配方面如此引人注目的原因是其相對較低的貝塔值為 1.39。這不是一隻在統計上會在任何方向上反應過於強烈的證券。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>作者提供的圖片</em></p>
<p>談到統計數據，亞馬遜在任何給定的一週內上漲的機會約為 53% 到 54%。這對看漲者來説並沒有太大的優勢。然而，市場做市商可能正在對亞馬遜的動量趨勢進行對沖，亞馬遜可能正試圖從 170 美元的低點反彈。話雖如此，考慮到超過 10% 的單週回報極少，這一動量論點也是風險重重，導致數據失真。</p>
<p>需要記住的是，正如上述看跌價差所示，賭注並不一定是股票會下跌（因為在紙面上它已經低於看跌者的盈利閾值）。</p>
<p>而是，賭注在於亞馬遜不會在此處大幅上漲。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，上述看跌價差似乎在借記買方的 favor 下定價錯誤。</p>
<p><strong>現在閲讀：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>通脹可能正在緩解，但科技前景仍然動盪，分析師警告</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

亞馬遜

<p>最近，密歇根大學消費者信心指數降至 50.4，為亞馬遜的看跌價差交易者創造了重大機會。由於亞馬遜的股票年初至今下跌了 17%，市場做市商在定價期權時面臨挑戰。看跌價差策略，特別是 190/185 的價差，為交易者提供了一個引人注目的機會，如果亞馬遜的股票在到期時跌破 185 美元，潛在的收益超過 61%。這一情況源於消費者信心惡化和通脹預期上升所導致的異常定價動態</p>

<p>It's a terrifying time to be a market maker these days. Recently, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged to 50.4, its lowest reading since June 2022. It also represents a steep drop from March's reading of 57 points. Worrying investors is that the figure missed economists' forecast of 54.5 by a significant margin. Naturally, this news item carries significant — and negative — implications for <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> AMZN.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，作為市場做市商的時光令人感到恐懼。最近，密歇根大學的消費者信心指數在四月份驟降至 50.4，這是自 2022 年 6 月以來的最低水平。這一數據也較三月份的 57 點大幅下滑。令投資者擔憂的是，這一數字顯著低於經濟學家預測的 54.5。自然，這一消息對 <strong>亞馬遜公司</strong> AMZN 帶來了重大且負面的影響。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the dour environment is the discouraging context behind the velocity decline. “Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March,” said <strong>Joanne Hsu</strong>, director of the Survey of Consumers at the University of Michigan. “This decline was, like last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人沮喪的是，消費者信心下降的背景也不容樂觀。密歇根大學消費者調查主任 <strong>Joanne Hsu</strong> 表示：“消費者信心連續第四個月下降，較三月份下降了 11%。” 她補充道：“這一下降趨勢與上個月一樣，普遍存在於各個年齡、收入、教育、地理區域和政治派別之間。”</p>
</div><p>Hsu told Bloomberg TV that the deteriorating economic outlook cut across the political spectrum for two months. At the same time, inflation expectations are rising, for both the short and long term. Subsequently, the projection of fading consumer sentiment does little to bolster confidence in Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hsu 在接受彭博電視採訪時表示，惡化的經濟前景在兩個月內跨越了政治光譜。同時，短期和長期的通脹預期正在上升。因此，消費者信心的減弱對亞馬遜的信心幾乎沒有任何提振作用。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, market makers cannot just hedge for a potential downturn. As investors saw during the midweek session's remarkable turnaround following President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariffs for select countries, anything can happen under the current administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市場做市商不能僅僅為潛在的下行風險進行對沖。正如投資者在特朗普總統對部分國家的關税暫停 90 天后，週中交易會的顯著反轉所看到的那樣，在當前政府下，任何事情都有可能發生。</p>
</div><p>Plus, it's worth pointing out that, as of this writing, Amazon’s stock is down about 17% on a year-to-date basis. Those providing liquidity for derivative contracts must also hedge for the possibility of discount buying. Again, it's a terrifying time to be a market maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，值得指出的是，截至目前，亞馬遜的股票年初至今下跌約 17%。為衍生合約提供流動性的交易者還必須對可能的折扣購買進行對沖。再一次，作為市場做市商的時光令人感到恐懼。</p>
</div><h2>Mispriced Amazon Stock Options A Bright Spot For Speculators?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定價錯誤的亞馬遜股票期權對投機者來説是一個亮點？</h2>
</div><p>As the saying goes, one person's trash is another person's treasure. When it comes to Amazon options, the market makers' dreadful duties to provide liquidity in this equities cycle can open doors for opportunistic speculators waiting to pounce on a mistake. And there just might be one in favor of the risk-taker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如俗話所説，一個人的垃圾是另一個人的寶藏。當談到亞馬遜期權時，市場做市商在這一股票週期中提供流動性的艱鉅任務可能為等待機會的投機者打開了大門。而且，可能會有一個錯誤在風險承擔者的 favor。</p>
</div><p>Under ordinary circumstances, pessimistic traders might buy a multi-leg options strategy known as the bear put spread. These vertical spreads — so called because the strike-price difference between the underlying long and short legs is stacked vertically (and thus for the same expiration date) — are net debit-based transactions. Simply stated, the trader pays a debit to speculate that a specific event will materialize (i.e. the target stock will fall).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情況下，悲觀的交易者可能會購買一種稱為看跌價差的多腿期權策略。這些垂直價差之所以被稱為垂直，是因為基礎的多頭和空頭腿之間的行權價差是垂直堆疊的（因此具有相同的到期日）——這些交易是淨借記交易。簡單來説，交易者支付借記以投機某一特定事件的發生（即目標股票將下跌）。</p>
</div><p>On the other end of a buyer of a vertical spread is, of course, the spread's seller. Selling a credit spread represents a net credit-based transaction. Specifically, the position starts from a cash influx position. The seller receives the premium that the debit buyer pays, gambling that the clock will run out on the buyer before the debit trade becomes profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在垂直價差的買方另一端，當然是價差的賣方。賣出信用價差代表一種淨信用交易。具體而言，該頭寸從現金流入頭寸開始。賣方收到借記買方支付的溢價，賭注是時間會在借記交易變得盈利之前耗盡。</p>
</div><p>For the seller, the premium received — that is, the amount of the cash influx — can be viewed as the safety margin or &#34;credit margin.&#34; Essentially, it's the amount that the trade can move against the seller and still be profitable. Once the margin is exceeded, though, the debit buyer is now in the money. Under this scenario, the rising deficit to the margin reflects the liability of a blown-up credit spread.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於賣方而言，收到的溢價——即現金流入的金額——可以視為安全邊際或 “信用邊際”。本質上，這是交易可以逆向移動而仍然盈利的金額。然而，一旦邊際被超出，借記買方就處於盈利狀態。在這種情況下，邊際的上升赤字反映了信用價差爆炸的責任。</p>
</div><p>What makes certain Amazon stock put spreads so compelling at this hour is that the aforementioned credit margin is on the debit side; that is, time decay (theta) favors the buyer. When risk modeling goes haywire in an attempt to accommodate all circumstances, unusual pricing dynamics may materialize. This may be what's happening right now with Amazon put options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使某些亞馬遜股票看跌價差在此時如此引人注目的原因在於上述信用邊際處於借記一側；也就是説，時間衰減（theta）有利於買方。當風險建模在試圖適應所有情況時失控時，可能會出現不尋常的定價動態。這可能就是目前亞馬遜看跌期權所發生的情況。</p>
</div><h2>Getting Spotted Free Odds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>獲取免費賠率</h2>
</div><p>Speculators looking to profit from the price modeling chaos may consider the bear put spreads expiring April 17 with a short leg strike price of $185. Specifically, the 190/185 bear spread looks enticing for speculators. This transaction involves buying the $190 put (at a time-of-writing ask of $935) and simultaneously selling the $185 put (at a bid of $625).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希望從價格建模混亂中獲利的投機者可能會考慮在 4 月 17 日到期的看跌價差，短腿行權價為 185 美元。具體而言，190/185 的看跌價差對投機者來説看起來很有吸引力。這筆交易涉及購買 190 美元的看跌期權（在撰寫時的要價為 935 美元）並同時出售 185 美元的看跌期權（在出價為 625 美元）。</p>
</div><p>Subsequently, the proceeds from the short put partially offset the debit paid for the long put, resulting in a net debit paid of $310. Should Amazon fall to or below the short strike price of $185 at expiration, the trader collects the maximum reward of $190, representing a payout of over 61%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，短期看跌期權的收益部分抵消了長期看跌期權的借記，導致淨借記為 310 美元。如果亞馬遜在到期時跌至或低於 185 美元的短行權價，交易者將獲得最高獎勵 190 美元，代表超過 61% 的回報。</p>
</div><p>Amazon shares in the open market were trading at a lower price than the short strike target. In other words, the trade is already in the money for the debit buyer on paper. Once time passes and if the situation stays as is, the risk taker wins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜在公開市場上的股票交易價格低於短行權目標。換句話説，這筆交易在紙面上已經對借記買方有利可圖。一旦時間過去，如果情況保持不變，風險承擔者就會獲勝。</p>
</div><p>What makes Amazon so compelling as a play on pricing mismatches is the relatively low beta of 1.39. This is not a security that will statistically react too strongly in either direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使亞馬遜在定價失配方面如此引人注目的原因是其相對較低的貝塔值為 1.39。這不是一隻在統計上會在任何方向上反應過於強烈的證券。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image by author</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>作者提供的圖片</em></p>
</div><p>Speaking of statistics, the chances that on any given week Amazon would rise is around 53% to 54%. That’s not much of an advantage for bulls. However, market makers could be hedging for the momentum-riding tendencies of Amazon, which could be attempting to bounce back from the $170 lows. Then again, the momentum argument is also risky considering how few one-week returns exceeding 10% there have been, resulting in data distortion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談到統計數據，亞馬遜在任何給定的一週內上漲的機會約為 53% 到 54%。這對看漲者來説並沒有太大的優勢。然而，市場做市商可能正在對亞馬遜的動量趨勢進行對沖，亞馬遜可能正試圖從 170 美元的低點反彈。話雖如此，考慮到超過 10% 的單週回報極少，這一動量論點也是風險重重，導致數據失真。</p>
</div><p>The thing to remember is that as the above bear put spread stands, the wager isn't necessarily that the stock will fall (because it's already below the profitability threshold for bears on paper).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要記住的是，正如上述看跌價差所示，賭注並不一定是股票會下跌（因為在紙面上它已經低於看跌者的盈利閾值）。</p>
</div><p>Rather, it's that Amazon won't materially rise from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而是，賭注在於亞馬遜不會在此處大幅上漲。</p>
</div><p>In that context, the above put spread appears mispriced in favor of the debit buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，上述看跌價差似乎在借記買方的 favor 下定價錯誤。</p>
</div><p><strong>Now Read:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>現在閲讀：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Inflation Might Be Easing But Tech Outlook Still Choppy, Analysts Warn</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>通脹可能正在緩解，但科技前景仍然動盪，分析師警告</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Wall Street's Risk Modeling Nightmare Creates Massive Opportunities In Amazon Put Spreads

- 密 ichigan 大學消費者信心指數降至 50.4，為 2022 年 6 月以來最低。  
- 該指數較 3 月的 57 點大幅下滑，未達經濟學家預期 54.5。  
- 亞馬遜股票年初至今下跌約 17%，市場情緒低迷。  

期權角：華爾街的風險建模噩夢在亞馬遜看跌期權價差中帶來了巨大的機會