<p>關税正在擾動市場，並導致波動性激增。以科技和消費品為主的增長型行業尤其脆弱，因為它們具有周期性和全球曝光度。</p>
<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 3.95%) 和 <strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.07%) 在撰寫本文時年初至今已下跌超過 20%，顯著落後於 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>，這兩者也大幅下跌。以下是這兩隻股票下跌的原因，以及現在是否值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ1MDMvYS1wZXJzb24tcHV0cy10aGVpci1oYW5kLW9uLXRoZWlyLWZvcmVoZWFkLXdoaWxlLXNpdHRpbmctZG93bi1hbmQtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS1pbi1hLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1tYW5uZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ1MDMvYS1wZXJzb24tcHV0cy10aGVpci1oYW5kLW9uLXRoZWlyLWZvcmVoZWFkLXdoaWxlLXNpdHRpbmctZG93bi1hbmQtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS1pbi1hLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1tYW5uZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>與中國的貿易戰對蘋果來説是壞消息</h2>
<p>蘋果對關税的暴露無可否認，尤其是在中國。中國是蘋果的關鍵市場——無論是從製造還是銷售的角度來看。</p>
<p>在 4 月 9 日，蘋果股票因對除中國以外所有國家的互惠關税暫停 90 天的反應而飆升，但在次日因關税率將提高至驚人的 145% 的消息而下跌了 4%。如果這一關税率持續存在，將嚴重打擊蘋果的短期盈利能力。這就是為什麼該股票年初至今下跌如此之多的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>現在購買蘋果股票意味着相信兩件事情會發生：</p>
<ol>
<li>蘋果能夠調整其供應鏈以避免關税的衝擊，或者關税將會減輕。</li>
<li>蘋果能夠將更高的成本轉嫁給消費者。</li>
</ol>
<p>4 月 10 日，有報道稱蘋果正在將 iPhone 從印度空運到美國，以規避對中國的關税。如果蘋果認為中國可能是一個長期風險，它可能會努力將製造永久性地轉移出中國，轉向印度和東南亞的其他合作伙伴。然而，投資者可能希望等到蘋果在 5 月 1 日的即將召開的財報電話會議上，進一步瞭解公司如何計劃減少關税影響。</p>
<p>至於蘋果的定價能力，近年來 iPhone 的增長已經放緩。但公司通過擴大其高利潤的服務部門和回購股票來彌補部分放緩。娛樂服務包括 Apple TV+、Apple Music、Apple Podcasts、Apple Books 等。蘋果還有一系列不斷增長的金融服務，從 Apple Pay 到 Apple Card 和 Apple Cash。</p>
<p>蘋果在人工智能領域尚未取得投資者所期待的重大突破，因此人們擔心其定價能力不如以往。然而，服務增強了蘋果生態系統的廣度。</p>
<p>總的來説，如果你相信蘋果能夠應對供應鏈挑戰並保持其定價能力，那麼蘋果是一個值得購買的優質股票。但在投資者對蘋果應對關税的反應有更多瞭解之前，採取觀望態度也是合理的，尤其是在幾周後的財報電話會議上。</p>
<h2>耐克在關税動盪之前就已經在掙扎</h2>
<p>考慮到耐克年初至今的損失更加令人擔憂，因為它去年已經是 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 中表現最差的成分股之一。耐克的股價已經下跌到十年來的最低水平。</p>
<p>耐克問題的簡要版本是，它過度投資於將業務從批發合作伙伴轉向數字化，這在疫情期間有效，但在近年來證明是一個代價高昂的錯誤，因為直接面向消費者的部分表現不如批發和耐克的實體店。除了管理失誤，耐克還受到來自 <strong>阿迪達斯</strong> 和新興競爭者如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 旗下的 Hoka 的強大競爭。</p>
<p>關税在耐克的投資論點中又添了一層複雜性，此時公司已經在為過去的錯誤而苦苦掙扎。報告顯示，耐克 95% 的鞋子是在中國、越南和印度尼西亞生產的。中國也是耐克銷售的關鍵市場。</p>
<p>截至 2 月 28 日的九個月內，大中華區的銷售額為 51.1 億美元，而北美為 148.7 億美元，歐洲、中東和非洲為 92.6 億美元。在此期間，耐克在大中華區銷售的鞋類、服裝和設備的數量超過了亞太地區和拉丁美洲的總和——大中華區在這九個月內佔耐克品牌總收入的 15.1%。</p>
<p>與蘋果類似，現在購買耐克股票是對其品牌實力的押注，認為它能夠扭轉業務、應對競爭並調整其供應鏈。然而，考慮到耐克在貿易緊張局勢開始之前就已經在進行業務轉型，耐克的脆弱性可能比蘋果更大。</p>
<p>耐克已經從一隻成長股轉變為一隻支付股息的價值股。儘管面臨困境，公司仍繼續回購股票，並且已經連續 23 年提高股息。股價的下跌使耐克的收益率上升至 10 年來的最高水平 2.8%，市盈率降至 10 年來的最低水平，僅為 18。然而，如果關税持續存在，耐克的盈利幾乎可以肯定會在短期內下降，從而使其估值變得不那麼吸引人。</p>
<h2>兩隻值得耐心投資者關注的股票</h2>
<p>蘋果和耐克可能在完全不同的行業中運營，但這兩家公司的購買理由是相似的。兩者都面臨嚴重的關税風險，近年來都沒有以驚人的速度增長盈利。然而，如果它們能夠度過這一艱難時期，這兩大品牌的估值在事後看來可能會顯得便宜。</p>
<p>蘋果作為更安全的全方位投資脱穎而出，而耐克則具有更高的風險和潛在回報，如果它能夠扭轉業務並應對關税的話。如果你有長期投資的視角，現在購買這兩隻股票都是值得的。然而，考慮到我們正航行在未知的水域，合理的做法是將這兩隻股票列入觀察名單，等待即將到來的財報電話會議，以便更清楚地瞭解它們的戰略。</p>

蘋果

耐克

<p>對關税敏感的股票，如蘋果和耐克，正面臨顯著下跌，兩者年初至今均下跌超過 20%。蘋果在中國的關税風險對其盈利能力構成威脅，這使得其在財報電話會議前的前景變得謹慎。耐克在向數字銷售轉型和競爭中已經面臨困難，關税的影響進一步加劇，因為其在中國的製造依賴程度很高。投資者正在權衡兩家公司運營中持續挑戰與潛在復甦的可能性</p>

<p>Tariffs are rattling markets and leading to spikes in volatility. Growth-focused sectors like technology and consumer discretionary are particularly vulnerable given their cyclicality and global exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關税正在擾動市場，並導致波動性激增。以科技和消費品為主的增長型行業尤其脆弱，因為它們具有周期性和全球曝光度。</p>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 3.95%) and <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 0.07%) are down over 20% year to date at the time of this writing, significantly underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>, which are also down significantly. Here's why both stocks are selling off and whether they are worth buying now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 3.95%) 和 <strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.07%) 在撰寫本文時年初至今已下跌超過 20%，顯著落後於 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>，這兩者也大幅下跌。以下是這兩隻股票下跌的原因，以及現在是否值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ1MDMvYS1wZXJzb24tcHV0cy10aGVpci1oYW5kLW9uLXRoZWlyLWZvcmVoZWFkLXdoaWxlLXNpdHRpbmctZG93bi1hbmQtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS1pbi1hLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1tYW5uZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814503%2Fa-person-puts-their-hand-on-their-forehead-while-sitting-down-and-looking-at-a-mobile-phone-in-a-concerned-manner.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A trade war with China is bad news for Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>與中國的貿易戰對蘋果來説是壞消息</h2>
</div><p>There's no sugarcoating Apple's exposure to tariffs, especially in China. China is a key market for Apple -- both from a manufacturing and a sales perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果對關税的暴露無可否認，尤其是在中國。中國是蘋果的關鍵市場——無論是從製造還是銷售的角度來看。</p>
</div><p>After Apple stock surged on April 9 in response to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to all countries except China, it sank 4% the following day on news that the tariff rate on Chinese goods would be raised to a staggering 145%. If it sticks, that steep of a tariff rate would crush Apple's near-term profitability. That's why the stock is down so much year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月 9 日，蘋果股票因對除中國以外所有國家的互惠關税暫停 90 天的反應而飆升，但在次日因關税率將提高至驚人的 145% 的消息而下跌了 4%。如果這一關税率持續存在，將嚴重打擊蘋果的短期盈利能力。這就是為什麼該股票年初至今下跌如此之多的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^SPX 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Buying Apple stock now is a belief that two things will happen:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在購買蘋果股票意味着相信兩件事情會發生：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Apple will be able to adjust its supply chain to avoid the brunt of tariffs, or tariffs will ease.</li>
<li>Apple will be able to pass along higher costs to consumers.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>蘋果能夠調整其供應鏈以避免關税的衝擊，或者關税將會減輕。</li>
<li>蘋果能夠將更高的成本轉嫁給消費者。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>On April 10, reports indicated that Apple was flying iPhones from India to the U.S. to circumnavigate tariffs on China. If Apple feels China could be a longer-term risk, it could work to permanently shift manufacturing out of China toward India and other partners in Southeast Asia. However, investors may want to wait for Apple's upcoming earnings call on May 1 to better understand how the company plans to reduce the tariff impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 10 日，有報道稱蘋果正在將 iPhone 從印度空運到美國，以規避對中國的關税。如果蘋果認為中國可能是一個長期風險，它可能會努力將製造永久性地轉移出中國，轉向印度和東南亞的其他合作伙伴。然而，投資者可能希望等到蘋果在 5 月 1 日的即將召開的財報電話會議上，進一步瞭解公司如何計劃減少關税影響。</p>
</div><p>As for Apple's pricing power, iPhone growth has slowed in recent years. But the company has made up for some of that slowdown by growing its high-margin services segment and repurchasing stock to grow earnings per share. Entertainment services include Apple TV+, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, Apple Books, and more. Apple also has a growing list of financial services, from Apple Pay to Apple Card and Apple Cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於蘋果的定價能力，近年來 iPhone 的增長已經放緩。但公司通過擴大其高利潤的服務部門和回購股票來彌補部分放緩。娛樂服務包括 Apple TV+、Apple Music、Apple Podcasts、Apple Books 等。蘋果還有一系列不斷增長的金融服務，從 Apple Pay 到 Apple Card 和 Apple Cash。</p>
</div><p>Apple has yet to make as big a splash in artificial intelligence as some investors may have hoped for, so there are fears that it lacks the pricing power it once had. However, services have enhanced the breadth of the Apple ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在人工智能領域尚未取得投資者所期待的重大突破，因此人們擔心其定價能力不如以往。然而，服務增強了蘋果生態系統的廣度。</p>
</div><p>All told, Apple stands out as a solid buy if you believe in its ability to navigate supply chain challenges and its pricing power. But it's also reasonable to take a wait-and-see approach until investors get more clarity on Apple's response to tariffs from the earnings call in a few weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，如果你相信蘋果能夠應對供應鏈挑戰並保持其定價能力，那麼蘋果是一個值得購買的優質股票。但在投資者對蘋果應對關税的反應有更多瞭解之前，採取觀望態度也是合理的，尤其是在幾周後的財報電話會議上。</p>
</div><h2>Nike was already struggling to gain its footing before the onset of tariff turmoil</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐克在關税動盪之前就已經在掙扎</h2>
</div><p>Nike's year-to-date losses are even more alarming, considering it was already one of the worst-performing components of the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> last year. Nike has sold off so much that it is now hovering around its lowest level in a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到耐克年初至今的損失更加令人擔憂，因為它去年已經是 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 中表現最差的成分股之一。耐克的股價已經下跌到十年來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The abridged version of Nike's problems is that it overly invested in switching the business away from wholesale partnerships to digital, which worked during the pandemic but proved a costly error in recent years, as the direct-to-consumer segment has been underperforming wholesale and Nike's brick-and-mortar stores. In addition to management blunders, Nike has been hit hard by formidable competition from <strong>Adidas</strong> and newer players like <strong>On Holding</strong> and <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong>-owned Hoka.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克問題的簡要版本是，它過度投資於將業務從批發合作伙伴轉向數字化，這在疫情期間有效，但在近年來證明是一個代價高昂的錯誤，因為直接面向消費者的部分表現不如批發和耐克的實體店。除了管理失誤，耐克還受到來自 <strong>阿迪達斯</strong> 和新興競爭者如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 旗下的 Hoka 的強大競爭。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs throw yet another wrench in the Nike investment thesis at a time when the company was already licking its wounds from past mistakes. Reports indicate that Nike makes 95% of its shoes in China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. China is a key market for Nike's sales as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關税在耐克的投資論點中又添了一層複雜性，此時公司已經在為過去的錯誤而苦苦掙扎。報告顯示，耐克 95% 的鞋子是在中國、越南和印度尼西亞生產的。中國也是耐克銷售的關鍵市場。</p>
</div><p>For the nine months ended Feb. 28, Greater China sales were $5.11 billion compared to $14.87 billion in North America and $9.26 billion in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. During that period, Nike sold more footwear, apparel, and equipment in Greater China than the rest of Asia Pacific and Latin America combined -- with Greater China making up a significant 15.1% of total Nike Brand revenue during that nine-month period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2 月 28 日的九個月內，大中華區的銷售額為 51.1 億美元，而北美為 148.7 億美元，歐洲、中東和非洲為 92.6 億美元。在此期間，耐克在大中華區銷售的鞋類、服裝和設備的數量超過了亞太地區和拉丁美洲的總和——大中華區在這九個月內佔耐克品牌總收入的 15.1%。</p>
</div><p>Like Apple, buying Nike stock now is a bet on the power of its brand, that it can turn the business around, handle competition, and pivot its supply chain. However, Nike is arguably more vulnerable than Apple, considering the business was already in the middle of a turnaround before the onset of trade tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與蘋果類似，現在購買耐克股票是對其品牌實力的押注，認為它能夠扭轉業務、應對競爭並調整其供應鏈。然而，考慮到耐克在貿易緊張局勢開始之前就已經在進行業務轉型，耐克的脆弱性可能比蘋果更大。</p>
</div><p>Nike has gone from a growth stock to a dividend-paying value stock. Despite its struggles, the company has continued to buy back stock and has 23 consecutive years of dividend raises. The sell-off in the stock price has pushed Nike's yield up to a 10-year high of 2.8% and its price-to-earnings ratio down to a 10-year low of just 18. Although if tariffs stick around, Nike's earnings will almost certainly fall in the near term -- making its valuation less appealing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克已經從一隻成長股轉變為一隻支付股息的價值股。儘管面臨困境，公司仍繼續回購股票，並且已經連續 23 年提高股息。股價的下跌使耐克的收益率上升至 10 年來的最高水平 2.8%，市盈率降至 10 年來的最低水平，僅為 18。然而，如果關税持續存在，耐克的盈利幾乎可以肯定會在短期內下降，從而使其估值變得不那麼吸引人。</p>
</div><h2>Two watch list-worthy stocks for patient investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>兩隻值得耐心投資者關注的股票</h2>
</div><p>Apple and Nike may operate in entirely different industries, but the buy case for both companies is similar. Both face serious tariff risks, and neither company has been growing earnings at breakneck rates in recent years. However, these are two top brands whose valuations could look cheap in hindsight if they can endure this challenging period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果和耐克可能在完全不同的行業中運營，但這兩家公司的購買理由是相似的。兩者都面臨嚴重的關税風險，近年來都沒有以驚人的速度增長盈利。然而，如果它們能夠度過這一艱難時期，這兩大品牌的估值在事後看來可能會顯得便宜。</p>
</div><p>Apple stands out as the safer all-around play, whereas Nike has a higher risk and potential reward if it can turn the business around and navigate tariffs. Both stocks could be worth buying now if you have a long-term horizon. However, it's also reasonable to keep both stocks on a watch list and wait for upcoming earnings calls for more clarity on their strategies, given we are sailing through uncharted waters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果作為更安全的全方位投資脱穎而出，而耐克則具有更高的風險和潛在回報，如果它能夠扭轉業務並應對關税的話。如果你有長期投資的視角，現在購買這兩隻股票都是值得的。然而，考慮到我們正航行在未知的水域，合理的做法是將這兩隻股票列入觀察名單，等待即將到來的財報電話會議，以便更清楚地瞭解它們的戰略。</p>
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Tariff-Sensitive Stocks Apple and Nike Are Getting Clobbered. Time to Buy?

- 關税導致市場波動，科技和消費品行業受影響嚴重。  
- 蘋果和耐克股價年初至今均下跌超過 20%。  
- 投資者需關注即將發佈的財報以評估公司應對關税的策略。

關税敏感的股票蘋果和耐克正在遭受重創。現在是買入的好時機嗎？