<p>美元經歷了多年來最快的下跌，指數對一籃子全球貨幣下跌了 10%——這是自 2022 年以來最大的跌幅。</p>
<p>如果你擔心美元持續走弱，有多種可行的對沖方式，包括外幣 ETF，我們稍後會討論。</p>
<p>但首先，讓我們花點時間探討一下近期走弱的原因。</p>
<p>下圖是美元指數，它衡量美元對六種全球貨幣（歐元、瑞士法郎、日本日元、加拿大元、英鎊和瑞典克朗）的強度。Stockcharts.com 使用$USD 作為該指數，但你也可以在其他地方找到 DXY。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239"/></p>
<p>正如你所看到的，美元從年初的 110 跌至今天略低於 100。這是自 2022 年以來的最大跌幅，美元交易接近近期低點。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，美元仍在自 2022 年以來的多年來交易區間內。</p>
<p>儘管下跌速度很快，但我們並不是在談論貨幣崩潰。</p>
<p>然而，我們看到的是美元可能繼續走低的風險在增加。</p>
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<p>新實施的關税制度，正如你所知，已經讓股市感到恐慌，並引發了修正/熊市。但它也導致債券拋售，因為 10 年期國債收益率自 4 月初以來飆升了 50 個基點。</p>
<p>由於國債收益率和價格呈反向移動，這一收益率飆升意味着投資者正在積極拋售國債。</p>
<p>通常，當股票下跌時，國債會上漲，因為投資者在股市波動期間競相購買債券以尋求安全。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，兩種資產同時下跌，促使一些分析師認為市場上存在持續的 “賣出美國” 主題。</p>
<p>不難理解原因，越來越混亂的經濟政策可能促使全球各國政府和投資者減少與美國進行的商業（和投資）活動。</p>
<p>就像市場本身一樣，目前尚不清楚這一趨勢是否已經達到暫時底部（國債價格在本週初略有上漲，儘管美元略顯疲軟）或只是暫時喘息。</p>
<p>如果你擔心是後者，有幾種方法可以對沖美元走弱。黃金最近表現特別強勁，尤其是在可能降息的情況下，預計將繼續保持強勢。</p>
<p>你還可以考慮直接接觸外幣，目前有兩隻外幣 ETF 看起來特別有吸引力。</p>
<h2><strong>2 只外幣 ETF 以對沖美元走弱</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)</strong> 和 <strong>Euro Trust (FXE)</strong> 今年表現良好，FXF 上漲了 12%，FXE 上漲了 10.7%。</p>
<p>_Cabot Explorer_的 Carl Delfeld 為投資瑞士提供了有力的理由，瑞士長期以來對投資者具有避風港的吸引力。</p>
<p>至於歐元，歐元區在實施關税後趨向於一致，最近展現出更為統一的立場。在不確定時期，這種穩定性是一個顯著的價值增益。</p>
<p>這兩隻 ETF 的回報在很大程度上受到美元貶值的限制，儘管 FXE 在過去 12 個月支付了適度的股息（1.8%），因此這裏的潛力完全在於對沖。</p>
<p>也就是説，如果關税的推出是未來的一個跡象，並且對美國資產的厭惡情緒在增加，使用貨幣 ETF 作為部分對沖可能是明智之舉，尤其是如果你考慮在海外花費一些時間。</p>
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歐元 做多 - CurrencyShares

瑞士法郎 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>美元經歷了顯著下跌，兑一籃子全球貨幣下跌了 10%，這是自 2022 年以來的最大跌幅。這一下降引發了人們對美元未來強度的擔憂。為了對沖美元走弱的風險，投資者可以考慮外幣 ETF，特別是 Invesco CurrencyShares 瑞士法郎信託（FXF）和歐元信託（FXE），這兩者今年表現強勁。FXF 上漲了 12%，而 FXE 上漲了 10.7%。這些 ETF 在美元持續承壓的情況下提供了潛在的對沖機會</p>

<p>The U.S. dollar has suffered its fastest drop in years, with the index shedding 10% against a basket of global currencies—the largest decline since 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元經歷了多年來最快的下跌，指數對一籃子全球貨幣下跌了 10%——這是自 2022 年以來最大的跌幅。</p>
</div><p>If you’re concerned about continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, there are a number of viable hedges, including foreign currency ETFs, which we’ll get to in a minute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你擔心美元持續走弱，有多種可行的對沖方式，包括外幣 ETF，我們稍後會討論。</p>
</div><p>But first, let’s take a moment to explore what’s behind the recent weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但首先，讓我們花點時間探討一下近期走弱的原因。</p>
</div><p>The chart below is the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six global currencies (the euro, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, and the Swedish krona). Stockcharts.com uses $USD for the index, but you’ll find it elsewhere under DXY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖是美元指數，它衡量美元對六種全球貨幣（歐元、瑞士法郎、日本日元、加拿大元、英鎊和瑞典克朗）的強度。Stockcharts.com 使用$USD 作為該指數，但你也可以在其他地方找到 DXY。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzE5L2Q4LzIxM2VmZWJjNGQ3Y2I3MjRmNDZlZWFjZTc4NzQvdXNkLTQtMTQtMjUucG5n" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F19%2Fd8%2F213efebc4d7cb724f46eeace7874%2Fusd-4-14-25.png"/></p>
<p>As you can see, it’s declined from a value of 110 at the beginning of the year to just below 100 today. That’s the steepest decline since 2022, and the dollar is trading near its recent low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，美元從年初的 110 跌至今天略低於 100。這是自 2022 年以來的最大跌幅，美元交易接近近期低點。</p>
</div><p>It should be noted that the dollar is still within a multi-year trading range dating back to 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，美元仍在自 2022 年以來的多年來交易區間內。</p>
</div><p>Despite the speed of the decline, we’re not exactly talking about a currency collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管下跌速度很快，但我們並不是在談論貨幣崩潰。</p>
</div><p>What we are seeing, however, is a growing risk that the dollar could continue trending lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我們看到的是美元可能繼續走低的風險在增加。</p>
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</div><p>The freshly implemented tariff regime has, as you’re no doubt aware, spooked equity markets and triggered a correction/bear market. But it’s also triggered selling in bonds as the yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked by 50 basis points since the beginning of April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新實施的關税制度，正如你所知，已經讓股市感到恐慌，並引發了修正/熊市。但它也導致債券拋售，因為 10 年期國債收益率自 4 月初以來飆升了 50 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Because Treasury yields and prices move in the opposite direction, that yield spike means that investors have been aggressively selling Treasurys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於國債收益率和價格呈反向移動，這一收益率飆升意味着投資者正在積極拋售國債。</p>
</div><p>Typically, when stocks sell off, Treasurys rise as investors bid up bonds for safety during periods of stock market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，當股票下跌時，國債會上漲，因為投資者在股市波動期間競相購買債券以尋求安全。</p>
</div><p>In this case, both assets fell simultaneously, prompting some analysts to posit that there is an ongoing “sell America” theme in the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，兩種資產同時下跌，促使一些分析師認為市場上存在持續的 “賣出美國” 主題。</p>
</div><p>It’s not hard to understand why, as an increasingly chaotic economic policy may be prompting governments and investors around the world to scale back the amount of business (and investing) that they’re interested in doing with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不難理解原因，越來越混亂的經濟政策可能促使全球各國政府和投資者減少與美國進行的商業（和投資）活動。</p>
</div><p>Much like the markets themselves, it’s unclear whether that trend has reached a temporary bottom (Treasury prices have ticked up modestly to begin the week, although the dollar is slightly weaker) or if it’s simply catching its breath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像市場本身一樣，目前尚不清楚這一趨勢是否已經達到暫時底部（國債價格在本週初略有上漲，儘管美元略顯疲軟）或只是暫時喘息。</p>
</div><p>If you’re concerned that it’s the latter, there are a few ways you can hedge a weaker dollar. Gold has been particularly strong of late, and is likely to continue to be, especially if rate cuts are forthcoming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你擔心是後者，有幾種方法可以對沖美元走弱。黃金最近表現特別強勁，尤其是在可能降息的情況下，預計將繼續保持強勢。</p>
</div><p>You can also consider adding direct exposure to foreign currency, and two foreign currency ETFs look particularly attractive right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你還可以考慮直接接觸外幣，目前有兩隻外幣 ETF 看起來特別有吸引力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>2 Foreign Currency ETFs to Hedge a Weakening Dollar</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>2 只外幣 ETF 以對沖美元走弱</strong></h2>
</div><p>Both the <strong>Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)</strong> and <strong>Euro Trust (FXE)</strong> have performed well this year, as the FXF is higher by 12% and the FXE is up 10.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)</strong> 和 <strong>Euro Trust (FXE)</strong> 今年表現良好，FXF 上漲了 12%，FXE 上漲了 10.7%。</p>
</div><p><em>Cabot Explorer’s</em> Carl Delfeld makes a strong case for investing in Switzerland in its own right, and it has long offered a safe-haven appeal for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_Cabot Explorer_的 Carl Delfeld 為投資瑞士提供了有力的理由，瑞士長期以來對投資者具有避風港的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>As for euros, the bloc has responded to the implementation of tariffs by trending towards coherence and has lately been presenting a more unified front. That stability is a notable value-add at a time of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於歐元，歐元區在實施關税後趨向於一致，最近展現出更為統一的立場。在不確定時期，這種穩定性是一個顯著的價值增益。</p>
</div><p>Returns for either ETF are largely capped by the devaluation of the dollar, although the FXE does pay a modest dividend (1.8% over the last 12 months), so the potential here is entirely in the hedge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩隻 ETF 的回報在很大程度上受到美元貶值的限制，儘管 FXE 在過去 12 個月支付了適度的股息（1.8%），因此這裏的潛力完全在於對沖。</p>
</div><p>That said, if the tariff rollout is a sign of what’s to come, and there’s a growing distaste for American assets, using a currency ETF as a partial hedge may be a wise move, especially if you’re considering spending any time overseas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，如果關税的推出是未來的一個跡象，並且對美國資產的厭惡情緒在增加，使用貨幣 ETF 作為部分對沖可能是明智之舉，尤其是如果你考慮在海外花費一些時間。</p>
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兩隻用於對沖美元貶值的外幣 ETF