<p>沃倫·巴菲特毫不掩飾他對 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -3.82%) 的喜愛，曾稱其為他所知道的最佳商業。它通常是 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%) (BRK.B -2.13%) 投資組合中的最大持股。</p>
<p>但在去年多個季度中，伯克希爾一直在削減其在這家 iPhone 製造商的持股，這讓一些投資者開始懷疑這位億萬富翁投資者是否對這家科技公司不再那麼樂觀。</p>
<p>我認為這並不屬實，以下是我相信他可能在市場最近的拋售中增加了持股的原因。</p>
<h2>巴菲特最初可能削減在蘋果的持股的原因</h2>
<p>在 2024 年 11 月，投資者注意到他連續第四個季度減少了對這家科技公司的持股。到那時，他在過去一年中已經出售了超過 6.15 億股。雖然他每次買賣股票的原因通常不為人知，但一個可能的原因可能與税收有關。</p>
<p>過去，他曾表達過對資本利得税可能上升的擔憂。而總統候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯確實建議提高這一税率。</p>
<p>巴菲特為了照顧伯克希爾的股東，可能希望在税率上升之前出售一大部分蘋果股票，以避免因多年來股票價值的巨大上漲而給公司帶來沉重的税負。而且，與其通過一次大規模的股票出售來驚嚇市場，分散在多個季度進行出售可能更為合理。</p>
<p>但無論是出於税收原因還是蘋果估值的上升，都沒有理由相信他認為這家企業有麻煩。它每年持續產生超過 900 億美元的利潤，過去 12 個月的收入接近 4000 億美元。其服務業務持續增長，儘管今天的投資者可能對關税感到擔憂，但在股票出售時並沒有明顯的擔憂理由。</p>
<h2>現在可能是巴菲特增持蘋果股票的良機</h2>
<p>在當前季度（從 4 月開始），我預計伯克希爾會進行大規模購買，增加在蘋果的持股。在唐納德·特朗普總統任內，資本利得税可能不會上升，甚至可能會降低。</p>
<p>無論如何，在當前政府下，風險顯著降低，這可能緩解了巴菲特對税率上升的擔憂，至少在可預見的未來。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，他在 2024 年第四季度停止了出售蘋果股票——當時正值選舉，哈里斯提高資本利得税的風險消失。雖然這可能只是巧合，但很難忽視這個時機。</p>
<p>另一個購買該股票的動機是蘋果在特朗普宣佈 “解放日” 和全球關税公告後的暴跌。這導致投資者拋售股票，擔心關税會顯著提高這家科技公司的成本。</p>
<p>股票最終下跌，4 月 8 日收於 172.42 美元，距離其 52 周低點 164.08 美元並不遠。對於巴菲特來説，這可能創造了一個不容錯過的買入機會。我相信，隨着税收擔憂的緩解以及伯克希爾在蘋果的持股顯著減少，這使得他在本月某個時候增加對這家消費科技公司的投資變得容易。</p>
<p>儘管關税風險仍然存在，但對於像巴菲特這樣的長期投資者，我認為這並不會讓他放棄購買該股票。</p>
<h2>現在蘋果股票值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>如果你是長期投資者，你會考慮購買並持有蘋果股票，不僅僅是幾年，而是幾十年。關税可能會在短期內對其運營造成問題，但如果你是為了長期投資，最終這可能並不那麼重要。</p>
<p>公司的基本面依然強勁，憑藉其卓越的品牌，蘋果是你今天可以在投資組合中持有的最安全和最佳的成長股票之一。</p>

蘋果

<p>沃倫·巴菲特預計將在本季度增加對蘋果股票的投資，此前他曾削減了持倉。對資本利得税上升的擔憂可能影響了他之前的拋售，但在當前政府的背景下，這些擔憂有所減輕。蘋果最近的股價下跌提供了一個買入機會，儘管存在關税風險，但其強勁的基本面使其成為一個穩健的長期投資。巴菲特偏愛蘋果的歷史表明，他可能會抓住這個機會來增加對這家科技巨頭的持股</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has made no secret about how much he likes <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -3.82%), once referring to it as the best business he knows of. It's routinely the top holding in the portfolio of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%) (BRK.B -2.13%), Buffett's conglomerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特毫不掩飾他對 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -3.82%) 的喜愛，曾稱其為他所知道的最佳商業。它通常是 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%) (BRK.B -2.13%) 投資組合中的最大持股。</p>
</div><p>But for multiple quarters last year, Berkshire had been trimming its position in the iPhone maker, leading some investors to wonder if the billionaire investor is no longer as optimistic about the tech company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在去年多個季度中，伯克希爾一直在削減其在這家 iPhone 製造商的持股，這讓一些投資者開始懷疑這位億萬富翁投資者是否對這家科技公司不再那麼樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Not only do I think that's not true, here's why I also believe he probably added to his position amid the market's recent sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為這並不屬實，以下是我相信他可能在市場最近的拋售中增加了持股的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why Buffett may have been trimming his position in Apple to begin with</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特最初可能削減在蘋果的持股的原因</h2>
</div><p>In November 2024, investors noticed that he reduced his stake in the tech company for a fourth consecutive quarter. At that point, he had sold more than 615 million shares over the past year. While his reasons are usually not known for why he buys or sells a stock each time, one possible reason could be to do with taxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 11 月，投資者注意到他連續第四個季度減少了對這家科技公司的持股。到那時，他在過去一年中已經出售了超過 6.15 億股。雖然他每次買賣股票的原因通常不為人知，但一個可能的原因可能與税收有關。</p>
</div><p>In the past, he has voiced concern that the tax rate on capital gains might rise. And presidential candidate Kamala Harris did suggest increasing it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去，他曾表達過對資本利得税可能上升的擔憂。而總統候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯確實建議提高這一税率。</p>
</div><p>Buffett, in looking out for Berkshire shareholders, may have wanted to sell off a big chunk of Apple stock before that happened, to avoid a hefty tax bill for the company given the shares' mammoth rise in value over the years. And rather that spooking the markets with one large stock sale, spreading it out over multiple quarters might have made more sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特為了照顧伯克希爾的股東，可能希望在税率上升之前出售一大部分蘋果股票，以避免因多年來股票價值的巨大上漲而給公司帶來沉重的税負。而且，與其通過一次大規模的股票出售來驚嚇市場，分散在多個季度進行出售可能更為合理。</p>
</div><p>But whether it's to do with taxes or Apple's rising valuation, there would have been no reason to believe that he thought the business was in trouble. It consistently generates more than $90 billion in profit each year, and its revenue over the trailing 12 months has totaled nearly $400 billion. Its services business continues to grow, and although investors today may be worried about tariffs, at the time of the stock sales there would have been no glaring reason for worry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但無論是出於税收原因還是蘋果估值的上升，都沒有理由相信他認為這家企業有麻煩。它每年持續產生超過 900 億美元的利潤，過去 12 個月的收入接近 4000 億美元。其服務業務持續增長，儘管今天的投資者可能對關税感到擔憂，但在股票出售時並沒有明顯的擔憂理由。</p>
</div><h2>Why now may be an opportune time for Buffett to load up on Apple stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在可能是巴菲特增持蘋果股票的良機</h2>
</div><p>During the current quarter, which began in April, I would expect to see a big purchase from Berkshire, adding to its position in Apple. Under President Donald Trump, capital gains taxes might not increase, and it's possible he could even decrease them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前季度（從 4 月開始），我預計伯克希爾會進行大規模購買，增加在蘋果的持股。在唐納德·特朗普總統任內，資本利得税可能不會上升，甚至可能會降低。</p>
</div><p>Either way, the risk is considerably much lower under the current administration, which may alleviate any concerns Buffett had about a rising tax rate, at least for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，在當前政府下，風險顯著降低，這可能緩解了巴菲特對税率上升的擔憂，至少在可預見的未來。</p>
</div><p>What is notable is that he stopped selling Apple stock in the fourth quarter of 2024 -- when the election took place and the risk of Harris raising capital gains taxes was gone. It may have just been a coincidence, but it's hard to ignore the timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，他在 2024 年第四季度停止了出售蘋果股票——當時正值選舉，哈里斯提高資本利得税的風險消失。雖然這可能只是巧合，但很難忽視這個時機。</p>
</div><p>Another incentive to buy the stock is Apple's crash after Trump's declaration of &#34;Liberation Day&#34; and the announcement of global tariffs. That caused investors to dump their shares on fears that tariffs would significantly raise costs for the tech company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個購買該股票的動機是蘋果在特朗普宣佈 “解放日” 和全球關税公告後的暴跌。這導致投資者拋售股票，擔心關税會顯著提高這家科技公司的成本。</p>
</div><p>The stock would end up falling, and on April 8 it closed at $172.42 -- not far from its 52-week low of $164.08. For Buffett, that may have created a buying opportunity too appealing to pass up. And I believe with the tax fears alleviated and Berkshire's position in Apple being significantly reduced, it would have made it easy to justify adding to its stake in the consumer tech company at some point this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票最終下跌，4 月 8 日收於 172.42 美元，距離其 52 周低點 164.08 美元並不遠。對於巴菲特來説，這可能創造了一個不容錯過的買入機會。我相信，隨着税收擔憂的緩解以及伯克希爾在蘋果的持股顯著減少，這使得他在本月某個時候增加對這家消費科技公司的投資變得容易。</p>
</div><p>While the tariff risk is still there, for a long-term investor such as Buffett, I don't believe it would have necessarily dissuaded him from buying the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管關税風險仍然存在，但對於像巴菲特這樣的長期投資者，我認為這並不會讓他放棄購買該股票。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple stock a good buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在蘋果股票值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>If you're a long-term investor, you'll want to consider buying and holding Apple for not just years but decades. Tariffs could cause problems for its operations in the short run but if you're investing for the long haul, it may not matter all that much in the end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是長期投資者，你會考慮購買並持有蘋果股票，不僅僅是幾年，而是幾十年。關税可能會在短期內對其運營造成問題，但如果你是為了長期投資，最終這可能並不那麼重要。</p>
</div><p>The company's fundamentals remain strong, and with an excellent brand behind it, Apple is one of the safest and best growth stocks you can hold in your portfolio today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的基本面依然強勁，憑藉其卓越的品牌，蘋果是你今天可以在投資組合中持有的最安全和最佳的成長股票之一。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Warren Buffett Will Start Buying More Apple Stock This Quarter

- 巴菲特持續減持蘋果股票，引發市場對其樂觀態度的質疑。  
- 減持可能與税務考慮有關，避免未來資本利得税上升的影響。  
- 當前市場回調或為巴菲特增持蘋果提供了良機。

預測：沃倫·巴菲特將在本季度增持蘋果股票