<p>儘管加密貨幣在全球貿易的起伏中幾乎沒有作用，但關税有可能以幾種深遠的方式擾亂它們。這是因為股票、債務和加密市場之間的聯繫比許多人想象的要緊密得多。</p>
<p>由於關税的不確定性，波動性已經激增，加密貨幣價格幾乎全面下跌。那麼，哪些因素將在 2025 年對你的加密投資組合產生最大的影響呢？</p>
<h2>投資者情緒</h2>
<p>讓我們從投資者情緒開始，因為這是一個容易量化的因素。目前，加密恐懼與貪婪指數為 29，表明投資者相對恐懼。該指數的測量範圍為 0-100，100 表示極度亢奮。</p>
<p>由於對關税的所有擔憂，這個恐懼與貪婪指數在 3 月和 4 月短暫跌破 20。因此，如果你想這麼説，好的消息是投資者似乎稍微平靜了一些。</p>
<p>但問題是：在當前環境下，投資者沒有購買投機性迷因幣或風險較高的山寨幣的興趣。不幸的是，這意味着 “山寨幣季節”——山寨幣暴漲的時期——可能今年不會到來。</p>
<p>歷史上，<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH 1.19%) 一直是開啓山寨幣季節的加密貨幣。你猜怎麼着？以太坊今年下跌了 53%，過去 30 天下跌了 16%。沒有以太坊，就沒有山寨幣季節。</p>
<p>相反，投資者更有可能將資金轉移到 <strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC 0.73%)，它常常被稱為數字黃金。雖然比特幣是否能作為長期價值儲存仍有爭議，但它在這次關税動盪中似乎表現得比其他頂級加密貨幣更為穩健。</p>
<h2>加密貨幣估值與宏觀經濟前景的關係</h2>
<p>與此同時，投資者正在重新思考如何評估加密貨幣。在牛市週期中，投資者關注與區塊鏈增長相關的變量——例如新用户增加、區塊鏈交易活動的增長或技術性能的快速提升。但在熊市週期中，關注點轉向財政政策、貨幣政策和宏觀經濟數據。</p>
<p>因此，加密投資者對可能提供通脹線索和經濟走向的宏觀經濟數據表現出濃厚的興趣。他們特別關注美國聯邦儲備可能採取的行動。這是因為降息被視為對加密貨幣非常有利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NTQvYnVsbC1iZWFyLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1zdG9ybS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NTQvYnVsbC1iZWFyLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1zdG9ybS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在過去，這種對整體宏觀經濟前景的關注在加密市場並不明顯。加密貨幣與每個主要金融資產之間沒有相關性，華爾街或華盛頓特區發生的事情並不重要。直到最近，機構投資者在加密市場中幾乎沒有發揮作用，政治家們幾乎沒有關注加密貨幣。</p>
<p>但這一切在 2024 年 1 月隨着現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出而改變。現在，購買科技股的同一羣人也在購買現貨比特幣 ETF，這意味着他們關注的是相同的經濟數據。難怪科技股與加密貨幣之間的相關性正在加緊。在 2025 年的大部分時間裏，比特幣的表現就像一隻非常昂貴且波動的科技股。</p>
<h2>加密貨幣作為主權政府的戰略資產</h2>
<p>如果貿易戰加劇，全球主權政府可能會開始將加密貨幣視為一種戰略資產，以幫助他們實現某些經濟目標。畢竟，如果出口枯竭，或經濟增長停滯，他們可能被迫採取激烈措施。而加密貨幣可能為他們提供一種非常獨特的政策選擇。</p>
<p>例如，特朗普白宮在 3 月提出的戰略比特幣儲備。當前的思路是，比特幣是一種戰略資產，類似於黃金或石油，政府應該儲備。在立法者已經提出的一個情景中，這些比特幣儲備可能在某一天被用來幫助償還政府沉重的 37 萬億美元債務負擔。</p>
<p>此外，財政部長斯科特·貝森特毫不掩飾地表示，穩定幣——加密世界的數字美元——可能被用來實現某些貨幣目標。這是因為穩定幣與美元 1 比 1 掛鈎，並由現金和現金等價物（包括短期國債）支持。</p>
<p>這些國債持有創造了債券市場與加密市場之間的新聯繫。例如，有人建議穩定幣有可能壓低美國國債的收益率，從而減少政府的債務利息成本。</p>
<h2>現在買哪些加密貨幣</h2>
<p>因此，綜合考慮，完美的加密貨幣應該是（1）被視為安全資產和長期價值儲存，（2）能夠超越科技股，以及（3）獲得主權政府的默許支持。</p>
<p>從我的角度來看，所有這些都指向比特幣是你現在需要購買的唯一加密貨幣。儘管比特幣遠非穩妥的投資，但如果特朗普的關税演變為全面的貿易戰，我沒有其他加密貨幣更願意持有。</p>

ETHE

<p>關税有可能顯著擾亂加密貨幣，儘管它們在全球貿易中的作用微乎其微。目前投資者情緒恐慌，Crypto Fear & Greed Index（加密恐懼與貪婪指數）為 29，這影響了投機性投資。比特幣被視為比以太坊更安全的選擇，而以太坊今年已下跌 53%。此外，宏觀經濟因素也在影響加密貨幣的估值，重點關注美國聯邦儲備的政策。各國政府可能還會將加密貨幣視為管理經濟挑戰的戰略資產，可能利用比特幣儲備來應對國家債務</p>

<p>Despite the fact that cryptocurrencies play very little role in the ebb and flow of global trade, tariffs have the potential to disrupt them in several profound ways. That's because the equity, debt, and crypto markets are more interconnected than many people might assume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管加密貨幣在全球貿易的起伏中幾乎沒有作用，但關税有可能以幾種深遠的方式擾亂它們。這是因為股票、債務和加密市場之間的聯繫比許多人想象的要緊密得多。</p>
</div><p>Already, volatility has spiked and crypto prices are down nearly across the board, due to tariff uncertainty. So, which factors will have the greatest impact on your crypto portfolio in 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於關税的不確定性，波動性已經激增，加密貨幣價格幾乎全面下跌。那麼，哪些因素將在 2025 年對你的加密投資組合產生最大的影響呢？</p>
</div><h2>Investor sentiment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者情緒</h2>
</div><p>Let's start with investor sentiment, because this is one factor that is easy to quantify. Right now, the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index sits at 29, indicating that investors are relatively fearful. The index is measured on a scale from 0-100, with 100 being extremely euphoric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們從投資者情緒開始，因為這是一個容易量化的因素。目前，加密恐懼與貪婪指數為 29，表明投資者相對恐懼。該指數的測量範圍為 0-100，100 表示極度亢奮。</p>
</div><p>This Fear &amp; Greed Index briefly dipped below 20 in both March and April, due to all the concerns about tariffs. So the good news, if you want to call it that, is that investors seem to be calming down a bit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於對關税的所有擔憂，這個恐懼與貪婪指數在 3 月和 4 月短暫跌破 20。因此，如果你想這麼説，好的消息是投資者似乎稍微平靜了一些。</p>
</div><p>But here's the thing: In the current environment, there is no appetite to buy speculative meme coins or risky altcoins. And that, unfortunately, means that &#34;Altcoin Season&#34; -- the time of the year when altcoins go parabolic -- may not be coming this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但問題是：在當前環境下，投資者沒有購買投機性迷因幣或風險較高的山寨幣的興趣。不幸的是，這意味着 “山寨幣季節”——山寨幣暴漲的時期——可能今年不會到來。</p>
</div><p>Historically, <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH 1.19%) has been the cryptocurrency that kicks off the start of Altcoin Season. And guess what? Ethereum is down 53% for the year and 16% during the past 30 days. Without Ethereum, there will be no Altcoin Season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH 1.19%) 一直是開啓山寨幣季節的加密貨幣。你猜怎麼着？以太坊今年下跌了 53%，過去 30 天下跌了 16%。沒有以太坊，就沒有山寨幣季節。</p>
</div><p>Instead, investors will be much more likely to move their money into <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.73%), which has often been referred to as digital gold. While it's still debatable whether Bitcoin can act as a long-term store of value, it does appear to be holding up better through this tariff upheaval than other top cryptocurrencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，投資者更有可能將資金轉移到 <strong>比特幣</strong>(BTC 0.73%)，它常常被稱為數字黃金。雖然比特幣是否能作為長期價值儲存仍有爭議，但它在這次關税動盪中似乎表現得比其他頂級加密貨幣更為穩健。</p>
</div><h2>Crypto valuations tied to the macroeconomic outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密貨幣估值與宏觀經濟前景的關係</h2>
</div><p>At the same time, investors are rethinking how they value cryptocurrencies. During bullish market cycles, investors focus on variables related to blockchain growth -- such as new user increases, gains in blockchain transaction activity, or rapid improvements in technical performance. But during bearish market cycles, focus shifts to fiscal policy, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，投資者正在重新思考如何評估加密貨幣。在牛市週期中，投資者關注與區塊鏈增長相關的變量——例如新用户增加、區塊鏈交易活動的增長或技術性能的快速提升。但在熊市週期中，關注點轉向財政政策、貨幣政策和宏觀經濟數據。</p>
</div><p>As a result, crypto investors are taking a keen interest in macroeconomic data that might offer clues about inflation and where the economy could be headed. They are especially focused on potential moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve. That's because interest rate cuts are perceived as being very bullish for crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，加密投資者對可能提供通脹線索和經濟走向的宏觀經濟數據表現出濃厚的興趣。他們特別關注美國聯邦儲備可能採取的行動。這是因為降息被視為對加密貨幣非常有利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NTQvYnVsbC1iZWFyLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1zdG9ybS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814854%2Fbull-bear-financial-storm.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In the past, this focus on the overall macroeconomic outlook was not so much the case for the crypto market. Crypto was uncorrelated with every major financial asset, and it really didn't matter what was happening on Wall Street or in Washington, D.C. Until fairly recently, institutional investors played very little role in the crypto market, and politicians paid almost no attention to crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去，這種對整體宏觀經濟前景的關注在加密市場並不明顯。加密貨幣與每個主要金融資產之間沒有相關性，華爾街或華盛頓特區發生的事情並不重要。直到最近，機構投資者在加密市場中幾乎沒有發揮作用，政治家們幾乎沒有關注加密貨幣。</p>
</div><p>But all that changed in January 2024 with the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ETFs. Now, the same people who buy tech stocks are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs, and that means they are looking at the same economic numbers. No wonder correlations between tech stocks and cryptos are tightening. For much of 2025, Bitcoin has behaved like a very expensive and volatile tech stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這一切在 2024 年 1 月隨着現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出而改變。現在，購買科技股的同一羣人也在購買現貨比特幣 ETF，這意味着他們關注的是相同的經濟數據。難怪科技股與加密貨幣之間的相關性正在加緊。在 2025 年的大部分時間裏，比特幣的表現就像一隻非常昂貴且波動的科技股。</p>
</div><h2>Crypto as a strategic asset for sovereign governments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密貨幣作為主權政府的戰略資產</h2>
</div><p>If the trade war intensifies, it's possible that sovereign governments around the world will start to view crypto as a strategic asset that can help them achieve certain economic goals. After all, they might be forced to take drastic steps if exports dry up, or if economic growth grinds to a halt. And crypto could give them a very unique policy option.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果貿易戰加劇，全球主權政府可能會開始將加密貨幣視為一種戰略資產，以幫助他們實現某些經濟目標。畢竟，如果出口枯竭，或經濟增長停滯，他們可能被迫採取激烈措施。而加密貨幣可能為他們提供一種非常獨特的政策選擇。</p>
</div><p>Take, for example, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which the Trump White House outlined in March. The current thinking is that Bitcoin is a strategic asset, similar to gold or oil, that the government should stockpile. In one scenario that has already been proposed by lawmakers, those Bitcoin reserves might one day be used to help pay down the government's crushing $37 trillion debt load.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，特朗普白宮在 3 月提出的戰略比特幣儲備。當前的思路是，比特幣是一種戰略資產，類似於黃金或石油，政府應該儲備。在立法者已經提出的一個情景中，這些比特幣儲備可能在某一天被用來幫助償還政府沉重的 37 萬億美元債務負擔。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made no secret of the fact that stablecoins -- the digital dollars of the crypto world -- might be used to achieve certain monetary goals. That's because stablecoins are pegged 1-to-1 to the U.S. dollar, and are backed by cash and cash equivalents, including short-term Treasury bills.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，財政部長斯科特·貝森特毫不掩飾地表示，穩定幣——加密世界的數字美元——可能被用來實現某些貨幣目標。這是因為穩定幣與美元 1 比 1 掛鈎，並由現金和現金等價物（包括短期國債）支持。</p>
</div><p>These Treasury holdings create all sorts of new linkages between the bond market and the crypto market. For example, some have suggested that stablecoins have the potential to push down yields on U.S. Treasury debt, thereby reducing the government's interest costs on its debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些國債持有創造了債券市場與加密市場之間的新聯繫。例如，有人建議穩定幣有可能壓低美國國債的收益率，從而減少政府的債務利息成本。</p>
</div><h2>Which cryptos to buy now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在買哪些加密貨幣</h2>
</div><p>So, putting it all together, the perfect crypto to buy would be one that (1) is viewed as a safe asset and long-term store of value, (2) can outperform tech stocks, and (3) has the tacit support of sovereign governments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，綜合考慮，完美的加密貨幣應該是（1）被視為安全資產和長期價值儲存，（2）能夠超越科技股，以及（3）獲得主權政府的默許支持。</p>
</div><p>From my perspective, all of that points to Bitcoin being the one crypto you need to buy right now. Although Bitcoin is far from being a slam-dunk investment, there's no other crypto I'd rather hold if Trump's tariffs turn into a full-blown trade war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從我的角度來看，所有這些都指向比特幣是你現在需要購買的唯一加密貨幣。儘管比特幣遠非穩妥的投資，但如果特朗普的關税演變為全面的貿易戰，我沒有其他加密貨幣更願意持有。</p>
</div>

3 Ways Tariffs Are About to Disrupt Cryptocurrencies Around the World

- 加密貨幣與全球貿易的關係微弱，但關税可能深刻影響其市場。  
- 投資者情緒低迷，Crypto Fear & Greed Index 為 29，表明市場恐懼。  
- 比特幣被視為安全資產，可能在貿易戰中表現優於其他加密貨幣。

關税即將通過三種方式擾亂全球的加密貨幣市場