<p>市場波動再次迴歸。在經歷了連續兩年的上漲市場——2023 年和 2024 年是 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 歷史上最好的年份之一——2025 年帶來了痛苦。</p>
<p>雖然標準普爾 500 指數尚未正式下跌 20%，因此未觸發熊市聲明，但它正經歷自 2022 年以來最劇烈的回撤，並且由於關税混亂，最近幾周經歷了一些劇烈的波動。波動率指數年初至今上漲了 100%。</p>
<p>當價格下跌時，這可能會引發壓力，讓你相信現在是積極交易投資組合的時機。沃倫·巴菲特對此觀點持不同意見。這位最佳投資者經歷了十幾次市場下跌，比任何人都更明白，逆向思維和長期心態才是贏得股市的關鍵。</p>
<p>以下是沃倫·巴菲特在應對熊市時的三條建議。</p>
<h2>熊市是你的朋友</h2>
<p>在熊市中，股市價格正在下跌。這與美國上市公司的_價值_無關。沃倫·巴菲特建議將股票視為一種合同，賦予你對企業的所有權。如果你購買標準普爾 500 指數基金，你就是在購買美國企業未來盈利能力的一部分。</p>
<p>把它想象成在零售商或超市購買商品。假設商品完全相同，你更願意讓你的購物賬單是 200 美元還是 100 美元？每個人都會選擇 100 美元；否則的想法是不合邏輯的。以同樣的方式看待股市。如果標準普爾 500 指數從歷史最高點下跌 50%，你就能夠以 50% 的折扣購買美國企業的集體所有權，這應該讓你感到興奮。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼沃倫·巴菲特説熊市是投資者最好的朋友。購買股票的人，尤其是年輕人，能夠以顯著低於歷史價格的折扣進行購買。年輕投資者應該為股價下跌而歡呼，因為這給他們提供了以更低價格購買企業所有權的機會。</p>
<h2>當別人恐懼時要貪婪</h2>
<p>對股價下跌感到歡呼與沃倫·巴菲特的另一條建議有關，也許是他最著名的格言：當別人恐懼時要貪婪。股價下跌發生在當人們更加害怕時，他們關注短期並跟隨頭條新聞，尋找買入或賣出的信號。在這個時刻，巴菲特認為最佳投資者會採取逆向思維。</p>
<p>當其他人感到恐懼，而你喜歡的股票價格下跌 90% 時，趁其他人紛紛逃離時加大投資可能會帶來豐厚的回報。例如，我們可以看看巴菲特在 2008 年大蕭條後對 <strong>穆迪</strong>(MCO -2.19%) 的投資，他的投資公司 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%)(BRK.B -2.13%)。由於穆迪在債券評級上的糟糕判斷導致了危機，投資者們感到恐慌，股票價格從歷史最高點下跌了約 80%。</p>
<p>當每個人都感到恐懼時，巴菲特卻在為伯克希爾哈撒韋購買穆迪的股票，現在他是該股票的最大股東。自 2011 年初以來，穆迪的股票上漲了近 20 倍，成為巴菲特 21 世紀最好的投資之一。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png"/></p>
<p>MCO 總回報水平數據來自 YCharts</p>
<h2>採取長期視角</h2>
<p>巴菲特始終主張投資者應該採取長期視角。為了説明這一點，他總是建議一個假想的場景。假設股市將在接下來的 10 年內關閉，這意味着在十年內沒有人可以買賣他們的投資組合。你還會想要你當前的投資組合配置嗎？如果不想，你可能過於關注短期。巴菲特説，如果你不想擁有一隻股票 10 年，你就不應該在 10 分鐘內擁有它。</p>
<p>這一建議可以幫助你在熊市期間放寬心態，儘管經歷可能很痛苦，但通常只會持續不到一年。如果你的投資組合時間跨度為十年或更長，熊市就會變得更容易承受。最終，股價將與基礎企業的盈利能力趨於一致。</p>
<p>採取長期視角，保持逆向思維，把股票視為企業的所有權，而不是屏幕上的曲線。運用這條巴菲特的建議，你將在未來的任何熊市中表現良好。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

<p>沃倫·巴菲特在近期市場波動中提供了應對熊市的建議。他強調，熊市提供了以折扣價格購買股票的機會，鼓勵投資者將股票視為企業的所有權份額。巴菲特建議在他人恐懼時要貪婪，強調在市場下跌時投資可以帶來顯著收益的潛力。他還強調了長期視角的重要性，建議投資者應準備至少持有股票十年。遵循這些原則可以幫助投資者在艱難的市場環境中蓬勃發展</p>

<p>Market volatility is back. After two straight years of up markets -- 2023 and 2024 were some of the best years in the <strong>S&amp;P 500'</strong> s history -- 2025 has brought back the pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場波動再次迴歸。在經歷了連續兩年的上漲市場——2023 年和 2024 年是 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 歷史上最好的年份之一——2025 年帶來了痛苦。</p>
</div><p>While the S&amp;P 500 index has not officially fallen 20%, therefore triggering a bear market declaration, it is in its sharpest drawdown since 2022 and has gone through some wild gyrations in recent weeks due to tariff mayhem. The volatility index has shot up 100% year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然標準普爾 500 指數尚未正式下跌 20%，因此未觸發熊市聲明，但它正經歷自 2022 年以來最劇烈的回撤，並且由於關税混亂，最近幾周經歷了一些劇烈的波動。波動率指數年初至今上漲了 100%。</p>
</div><p>When prices are falling, it can induce stress and make you believe now is the time to aggressively trade your portfolio. Warren Buffett disagrees with this notion. The best investor has lived through a dozen market downturns, understanding better than anyone that contrarian thinking and a long-term mindset is how you win in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當價格下跌時，這可能會引發壓力，讓你相信現在是積極交易投資組合的時機。沃倫·巴菲特對此觀點持不同意見。這位最佳投資者經歷了十幾次市場下跌，比任何人都更明白，逆向思維和長期心態才是贏得股市的關鍵。</p>
</div><p>Here are three pieces of advice Warren Buffett has when dealing with bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是沃倫·巴菲特在應對熊市時的三條建議。</p>
</div><h2>Bear markets are your friend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>熊市是你的朋友</h2>
</div><p>In a bear market, the price of the stock market is falling. That has nothing to do with the <em>value</em> of the companies listed in the United States, though. Warren Buffett recommends viewing stocks as a contract that gives you an ownership stake in a business. Or, if you buy an S&amp;P 500 index fund, you are buying a slice of the future earnings power of American businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在熊市中，股市價格正在下跌。這與美國上市公司的_價值_無關。沃倫·巴菲特建議將股票視為一種合同，賦予你對企業的所有權。如果你購買標準普爾 500 指數基金，你就是在購買美國企業未來盈利能力的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Think of it like buying goods at a retailer or supermarket. Would you rather your grocery bill be $200 or $100, assuming it is the exact same goods? Everyone would choose $100; it is illogical to think otherwise. Look at the stock market the same way. If the S&amp;P 500 index falls 50% from all-time highs, you are able to purchase collective ownership of an American business at a 50% discount, which you should be enthusiastic about doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>把它想象成在零售商或超市購買商品。假設商品完全相同，你更願意讓你的購物賬單是 200 美元還是 100 美元？每個人都會選擇 100 美元；否則的想法是不合邏輯的。以同樣的方式看待股市。如果標準普爾 500 指數從歷史最高點下跌 50%，你就能夠以 50% 的折扣購買美國企業的集體所有權，這應該讓你感到興奮。</p>
</div><p>This is why Warren Buffett says bear markets are an investor's best friend. People who purchase stocks, especially younger people, are able to do so at a significant discount to historical prices in a bear market. Young investors should cheer falling stock prices because it gives them an opportunity to buy an ownership stake in a business at a cheaper price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼沃倫·巴菲特説熊市是投資者最好的朋友。購買股票的人，尤其是年輕人，能夠以顯著低於歷史價格的折扣進行購買。年輕投資者應該為股價下跌而歡呼，因為這給他們提供了以更低價格購買企業所有權的機會。</p>
</div><h2>Be greedy when others are fearful</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>當別人恐懼時要貪婪</h2>
</div><p>Cheering about falling stock prices relates to another piece of Warren Buffett's advice and perhaps his most famous adage: Be greedy when others are fearful. Falling stock prices occur when people are more afraid, thinking of the short term and following headlines, looking for signals to buy or sell. At this moment, Buffett believes the best investors act with a contrarian mindset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對股價下跌感到歡呼與沃倫·巴菲特的另一條建議有關，也許是他最著名的格言：當別人恐懼時要貪婪。股價下跌發生在當人們更加害怕時，他們關注短期並跟隨頭條新聞，尋找買入或賣出的信號。在這個時刻，巴菲特認為最佳投資者會採取逆向思維。</p>
</div><p>When others are fearful, and the price of a stock you like has fallen 90%, it can pay handsomely to lean in when others are scattering for the exits. For example, we can look at Buffett's investment in <strong>Moody's</strong>(MCO -2.19%) at his investment company <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%)(BRK.B -2.13%) in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008. Investors were scared out of their minds because of Moody's poor judgement in bond ratings, which led to the crisis, and the stock fell around 80% from all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當其他人感到恐懼，而你喜歡的股票價格下跌 90% 時，趁其他人紛紛逃離時加大投資可能會帶來豐厚的回報。例如，我們可以看看巴菲特在 2008 年大蕭條後對 <strong>穆迪</strong>(MCO -2.19%) 的投資，他的投資公司 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%)(BRK.B -2.13%)。由於穆迪在債券評級上的糟糕判斷導致了危機，投資者們感到恐慌，股票價格從歷史最高點下跌了約 80%。</p>
</div><p>While everyone was scared, Buffett was buying up shares of Moody's for Berkshire Hathaway and is now the largest shareholder of the stock. Since the beginning of 2011, shares of Moody's are up close to 20x, making it one of Buffett's best investments of the 21st century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當每個人都感到恐懼時，巴菲特卻在為伯克希爾哈撒韋購買穆迪的股票，現在他是該股票的最大股東。自 2011 年初以來，穆迪的股票上漲了近 20 倍，成為巴菲特 21 世紀最好的投資之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png"/></p>
<p>MCO Total Return Level data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MCO 總回報水平數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Take the long view</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>採取長期視角</h2>
</div><p>Buffett consistently espouses that investors should take the long view. To illustrate this point, he always recommends an imaginary scenario. Say the stock market was going to close for the next 10 years, meaning nobody could buy or sell anything from their portfolio for a decade. Would you still want your current portfolio allocation? If not, you may be too short-term focused. Buffett says if you don't want to own a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't own it for 10 minutes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特始終主張投資者應該採取長期視角。為了説明這一點，他總是建議一個假想的場景。假設股市將在接下來的 10 年內關閉，這意味着在十年內沒有人可以買賣他們的投資組合。你還會想要你當前的投資組合配置嗎？如果不想，你可能過於關注短期。巴菲特説，如果你不想擁有一隻股票 10 年，你就不應該在 10 分鐘內擁有它。</p>
</div><p>This advice can help you zoom out during bear markets, which can be painful to experience but usually only last less than a year. If you have a time horizon of a decade or longer for your portfolio, it makes a bear market much easier to stomach. Eventually, stock prices will converge with the earnings power of the underlying businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一建議可以幫助你在熊市期間放寬心態，儘管經歷可能很痛苦，但通常只會持續不到一年。如果你的投資組合時間跨度為十年或更長，熊市就會變得更容易承受。最終，股價將與基礎企業的盈利能力趨於一致。</p>
</div><p>Take the long view, have a contrarian mindset, and think of stocks like ownership stakes in businesses instead of squiggly lines on a screen. Use this Buffett advice, and you will do fine in any future bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>採取長期視角，保持逆向思維，把股票視為企業的所有權，而不是屏幕上的曲線。運用這條巴菲特的建議，你將在未來的任何熊市中表現良好。</p>
</div>

Worried About a Bear Market? Here's What Warren Buffett Says to Do

- 2025 年市場波動加劇，S&P 500 指數經歷劇烈波動。  
- 沃倫·巴菲特建議在熊市中以長期視角投資，視股票為企業的所有權。  
- 他強調在他人恐懼時應貪婪，利用低價買入優質股票。  

擔心熊市？看看沃倫·巴菲特建議的應對措施