<p>出於多種原因，國家在 2025 年關注的最大經濟指標之一是房地產市場。在高抵押貸款利率和更高房價的情況下，人們擔心今年對購房者來説可能比過去幾年更為艱難，儘管這聽起來難以置信。</p>
<ul>
<li>關於 2025 年房地產市場的表現，確實存在疑問。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>我們希望看到更多房源上市，從而整體降低價格。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>根據貿易政策，通貨膨脹的下降可能導致抵押貸款利率的降低。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>您在退休方面是領先還是落後？SmartAsset 的免費工具可以在幾分鐘內將您與財務顧問匹配，幫助您今天回答這個問題。每位顧問都經過嚴格審查，必須以您的最佳利益為重。不要再浪費時間；點擊這裏開始吧。(贊助商)</li>
</ul>
<p>當然，要理解 2025 年是否會導致房地產泡沫，您必須考慮多個觀點，通常這些觀點來自於很少達成一致的專家。好消息是，專家們似乎並不預測崩盤，但這仍然引發了一個問題：您是否應該在 2025 年買房，還是等待。</p>
<h2>定義房地產泡沫或崩盤</h2>
<p>如果您試圖理解如何量化房地產泡沫或房地產市場崩盤，詢問這究竟意味着什麼是可以的。公平地説，這也是一個專家們並不總是高度一致的領域。也就是説，泡沫是指快速價格上漲是由大量投機或輕鬆獲得信貸驅動的任何情況，就像 2008 年之前和大蕭條期間的情況一樣。</p>
<p>房地產崩盤則是泡沫的對立面，當房價迅速下跌，通常是在泡沫期之後。這可能是由於利率上升或其他經濟因素，如失業率上升，導致購房被推遲，直到經濟和就業市場更加穩定。</p>
<h2>2025 年的房地產市場</h2>
<h3>房屋供應短缺</h3>
<p>根據 Realtor.com 的見解，美國確實存在住房短缺，缺口在 230 萬到 650 萬套房屋之間。根據全國房地產經紀人協會首席經濟學家 Lawrence Yun 的説法，考慮到這一點，“供應顯然不足”。</p>
<p>因此，即使存在住房短缺且需求依然旺盛，這也直接導致了房價不會崩盤的想法。不過，這並沒有幫助那些希望崩盤以便能夠在一生中買得起人人渴望的房子的人。</p>
<h3>當前市場快照</h3>
<p>基於我們對住房供應短缺的瞭解，這直接引發了關於房價為何穩步上漲的問題。根據一份報告，2025 年，我們看到中位數轉售價格上漲 3.8%，達到 398,400 美元，這延續了 20 年的增長期。然而，這比 2024 年中位數價格上漲 5.2% 有所放緩，這確實表明市場略微降温。</p>
<p>儘管如此，2024 年至 2025 年間，住房庫存上升了 17%，目前市場上可供買家的房屋供應為 3.5 個月。然而，現有房屋銷售處於 30 年來的低點，這表明增長緩慢，但並不算泡沫或崩盤。相反，這更像是房地產市場的中間狀態。</p>
<p>或許最大的考慮是 2025 年利率會發生什麼。人們希望利率在過去幾年中可能已經達到峯值，但截至 2025 年 4 月 14 日，30 年固定利率約為 6.9%，沒有跡象表明近期會有顯著下降。</p>
<h2>預測 2025 年的房地產市場</h2>
<p>正如人們所料，預測房地產市場有點像是一場有根據的猜測遊戲。您可以做出專家預測，但市場隨時可能因衝突、關税或市場崩盤而改變。</p>
<h3>2025 年市場會崩盤嗎？</h3>
<p>將注意力轉向 NAR 的 Lawrence Yun，他重申 2025 年房地產市場崩盤的可能性不大。“抵押貸款利率急劇上升至約 9%，加上顯著的淨失業，可能會對房地產市場施加嚴重壓力。然而，這兩種情況都不太可能發生，因此市場崩盤的可能性不大。”</p>
<p>在這種情況下，Yun 並不孤單。其他房地產專家也持類似觀點，包括 Realtor.com 的首席經濟學家 Danielle Hale。她也認為，抵押貸款利率在 2025 年可能會下降，這將使住房更加負擔得起，即使房價不會大幅下跌。</p>
<p>進一步支持 2025 年房地產市場將保持相對理智的觀點是，房利美僅預測 2025 年房價上漲 3.5%，低於 2024 年，而 NAR 僅預測 2-3% 的增長。根據這些預測，可以説 2025 年市場將降温，但遠遠不至於崩盤。</p>
<h3>2025 年房地產市場會復甦嗎？</h3>
<p>專家們還在問的另一個問題是，2025 年是否會給我們帶來驚喜，我們可能會看到房地產市場的復甦。要實現這一目標，上述提到的庫存短缺需要顯著減少。更多可供買家的庫存將有助於緩解一些價格壓力，這在某些情況下是積極的。</p>
<p>然而，2025 年任何復甦的最大挑戰將是抵押貸款利率的下降。由於利率在過去幾個月一直保持在 6.5% 以上，這似乎不太可能。不過，人們仍然希望如果通貨膨脹壓力繼續減輕，美聯儲將再進行一兩次降息，但考慮到新的關税政策，這現在是一個大問號。</p>
<p>根據專家的説法，最佳情況是抵押貸款利率降至 4% 到 5% 之間，這將有助於房地產市場恢復到 “正常” 狀態，而不會產生顯著的副作用。</p>
<h2>2025 年您應該買房還是等待？</h2>
<h3>現在買</h3>
<p>最終，關鍵問題是根據專家對 2025 年房市是否會出現泡沫或崩潰的預測，你應該購買還是等待。這個問題的簡單答案是，像股市一樣，準確把握房市時機幾乎是不可能的，因此你必須在任何時候做出適合自己的選擇。希望改善的庫存供應能夠為購房提供支持。</p>
<h3>等待</h3>
<p>然而，利率下降的潛力可能使市場看到低於 6% 的數字，這使得數百萬人的處境是等待美聯儲的下一步行動。僅僅一個百分點的支付差異在 30 年的成本上就可能是數千美元，因此等待抵押貸款利率下降的理由值得考慮。</p>
<h3>其他考慮因素</h3>
<p>另一個額外的考慮因素是你所在的國家地區。像南佛羅里達這樣的地區在過去幾年中一直處於泡沫中，因此那裏發生的事情並不適用於鄉村堪薩斯。</p>
<p>另外，你還必須考慮總統政府的關税和其他政策變化將如何影響通貨膨脹，如果日常商品的價格再次普遍上漲，這可能會減少整體住房需求。由於 2025 年 4 月初的當前不確定性，確實有理由在購買新房之前等待局勢穩定。</p>
<p>這篇文章《住房泡沫還是崩潰？2025 年房價的下一步是什麼》最早出現在 24/7 Wall St.上。</p>

AOMR

<p>住房市場是 2025 年的一個關鍵經濟指標，高抵押貸款利率和房價引發了買家的擔憂。專家預測將出現 230 萬到 650 萬套房屋的短缺，這可能會阻止價格崩潰，儘管價格增長略有降温。預計中位數轉售價格將上漲 3.8%，達到 398,400 美元。目前庫存上升了 17%，但現有房屋銷售處於 30 年來的低點。預測表明市場崩潰的可能性不大，但利率仍然是一個重要因素</p>

<p>For many reasons, one of the biggest economic indicators the country is looking at in 2025 is the housing market. Between high mortgage rates and even higher home prices, there is a concern that this year could be tougher for home buyers than the previous few years, as hard as that would be to believe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>出於多種原因，國家在 2025 年關注的最大經濟指標之一是房地產市場。在高抵押貸款利率和更高房價的情況下，人們擔心今年對購房者來説可能比過去幾年更為艱難，儘管這聽起來難以置信。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>There is a definite question of how the housing market will perform in 2025.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>關於 2025 年房地產市場的表現，確實存在疑問。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>We hope to see more inventory come on the market, reducing pricing overall.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我們希望看到更多房源上市，從而整體降低價格。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Depending on trade policies, a decrease in inflation could lead to a drop in mortgage interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>根據貿易政策，通貨膨脹的下降可能導致抵押貸款利率的降低。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
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</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>您在退休方面是領先還是落後？SmartAsset 的免費工具可以在幾分鐘內將您與財務顧問匹配，幫助您今天回答這個問題。每位顧問都經過嚴格審查，必須以您的最佳利益為重。不要再浪費時間；點擊這裏開始吧。(贊助商)</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Of course, to understand whether 2025 will lead to a housing bubble, you have to consider multiple points of view, often from experts who rarely agree. The good news is that experts don’t seem to predict a crash, but it still begs the question of whether or not you should buy a home in 2025 or wait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，要理解 2025 年是否會導致房地產泡沫，您必須考慮多個觀點，通常這些觀點來自於很少達成一致的專家。好消息是，專家們似乎並不預測崩盤，但這仍然引發了一個問題：您是否應該在 2025 年買房，還是等待。</p>
</div><h2>Defining A Housing Bubble Or Bust</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定義房地產泡沫或崩盤</h2>
</div><p>If you’re trying to understand how to quantify a housing bubble or a housing market bust, it’s okay to ask questions about what this exactly would mean. It’s also fair to say this is another area where experts aren’t always extremely aligned. This said, a bubble would be any instance in which rapid price increases are driven by heavy speculation or easy access to credit, as was the case pre-2008 and during the Great Recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果您試圖理解如何量化房地產泡沫或房地產市場崩盤，詢問這究竟意味着什麼是可以的。公平地説，這也是一個專家們並不總是高度一致的領域。也就是説，泡沫是指快速價格上漲是由大量投機或輕鬆獲得信貸驅動的任何情況，就像 2008 年之前和大蕭條期間的情況一樣。</p>
</div><p>A housing bust would be the opposite of a bubble, when home prices rapidly fall, often following a bubble period. This could result from rising interest rates or other economic factors like increased unemployment, where buying a home is pushed to the back burner until a more stable economy and job market prevail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產崩盤則是泡沫的對立面，當房價迅速下跌，通常是在泡沫期之後。這可能是由於利率上升或其他經濟因素，如失業率上升，導致購房被推遲，直到經濟和就業市場更加穩定。</p>
</div><h2>The Housing Market In 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的房地產市場</h2>
</div><h3>Housing Supply Shortage</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>房屋供應短缺</h3>
</div><p>According to insights from Realtor.com, there is a definite housing shortage in the United States, with at least 2.3 million to 6.5 million homes. Given this, there is “simply not enough supply,” according to Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Realtor.com 的見解，美國確實存在住房短缺，缺口在 230 萬到 650 萬套房屋之間。根據全國房地產經紀人協會首席經濟學家 Lawrence Yun 的説法，考慮到這一點，“供應顯然不足”。</p>
</div><p>As a result, even if there is a housing shortage and still high demand, it leads directly to the idea that housing prices won’t crash. Still, this doesn’t help those hoping for a crash to finally be able to afford a home everyone wants in their lifetime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使存在住房短缺且需求依然旺盛，這也直接導致了房價不會崩盤的想法。不過，這並沒有幫助那些希望崩盤以便能夠在一生中買得起人人渴望的房子的人。</p>
</div><h3>Current Market Snapshot</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>當前市場快照</h3>
</div><p>Building on what we know about the housing supply shortage, it directly leads to questions about why home prices have steadily increased. According to one report, in 2025, we’re seeing a 3.8% increase in median resale prices at $398,400, which continues a 20-year growth period. However, this is somewhat slower than 2024’s median price increase of 5.2%, which does indicate the market has cooled down slightly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於我們對住房供應短缺的瞭解，這直接引發了關於房價為何穩步上漲的問題。根據一份報告，2025 年，我們看到中位數轉售價格上漲 3.8%，達到 398,400 美元，這延續了 20 年的增長期。然而，這比 2024 年中位數價格上漲 5.2% 有所放緩，這確實表明市場略微降温。</p>
</div><p>Still, housing inventory was up 17% between 2024 and 2025, and there is a 3.5-month supply of homes available for buyers today. However, existing home sales are at a 30-year low, which indicates sluggish growth but not quite what anyone would call a bubble or bust. Instead, this is more of a middle ground for the housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，2024 年至 2025 年間，住房庫存上升了 17%，目前市場上可供買家的房屋供應為 3.5 個月。然而，現有房屋銷售處於 30 年來的低點，這表明增長緩慢，但並不算泡沫或崩盤。相反，這更像是房地產市場的中間狀態。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the biggest consideration is what happens with interest rates in 2025. The hope was that rates may have peaked over the past few years, but with a 30-year fixed rate of around 6.9% as of April 14, 2025, there are no signs of a significant drop coming anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或許最大的考慮是 2025 年利率會發生什麼。人們希望利率在過去幾年中可能已經達到峯值，但截至 2025 年 4 月 14 日，30 年固定利率約為 6.9%，沒有跡象表明近期會有顯著下降。</p>
</div><h2>Predicting Housing For 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預測 2025 年的房地產市場</h2>
</div><p>As one might suspect, predicting the housing market is a bit of an educated guessing game. You can make expert predictions, but the market is one conflict, tariff, or market crash away from changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如人們所料，預測房地產市場有點像是一場有根據的猜測遊戲。您可以做出專家預測，但市場隨時可能因衝突、關税或市場崩盤而改變。</p>
</div><h3>Will The Market Crash in 2025?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2025 年市場會崩盤嗎？</h3>
</div><p>Turning attention to Lawrence Yun from the NAR, he reiterates that a housing market crash in 2025 is unlikely. “A sharp rise in mortgage rates to around 9 percent, combined with significant net job losses, could put severe pressure on the housing market. However, both scenarios are unlikely, making a market crash unlikely.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將注意力轉向 NAR 的 Lawrence Yun，他重申 2025 年房地產市場崩盤的可能性不大。“抵押貸款利率急劇上升至約 9%，加上顯著的淨失業，可能會對房地產市場施加嚴重壓力。然而，這兩種情況都不太可能發生，因此市場崩盤的可能性不大。”</p>
</div><p>In instances like this, Yun isn’t alone. Other real estate experts are lining up with similar thinking, including Danielle Hale, the chief economist of Realtor.com. She, too, believes that mortgage rates are likely to drop in 2025, which would, in turn, make housing more affordable even if housing prices don’t drop dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，Yun 並不孤單。其他房地產專家也持類似觀點，包括 Realtor.com 的首席經濟學家 Danielle Hale。她也認為，抵押貸款利率在 2025 年可能會下降，這將使住房更加負擔得起，即使房價不會大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Adding fuel to the idea that the housing market in 2025 is going to stay somewhat sane is that Fannie Mae only predicts a 3.5% increase in home pricing in 2025, a decrease from 2024, while the NAR only predicts a 2-3% increase. With these predictions, it’s okay to say there will be a cooling market in 2025, but far, far short of anything that would look like a bust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進一步支持 2025 年房地產市場將保持相對理智的觀點是，房利美僅預測 2025 年房價上漲 3.5%，低於 2024 年，而 NAR 僅預測 2-3% 的增長。根據這些預測，可以説 2025 年市場將降温，但遠遠不至於崩盤。</p>
</div><h3>Housing Market Recovery In 2025?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2025 年房地產市場會復甦嗎？</h3>
</div><p>Another question being asked by experts is whether or not 2025 could surprise us, and we could see a housing market recovery in 2025. For that to happen, the inventory shortage mentioned above would need to decrease significantly. The more available inventory for buyers would help ease some of the pricing pressure, which would be a positive in some cases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家們還在問的另一個問題是，2025 年是否會給我們帶來驚喜，我們可能會看到房地產市場的復甦。要實現這一目標，上述提到的庫存短缺需要顯著減少。更多可供買家的庫存將有助於緩解一些價格壓力，這在某些情況下是積極的。</p>
</div><p>However, the biggest challenge to any recovery in 2025 would be if mortgage interest rates fall. As rates have been stuck over 6.5% for the last few months, this does not seem very likely. Still, there is hope the Federal Reserve will issue another cut or two to help reduce interest rates if inflation pressures continue to decrease, but it’s now a big if in light of new tariff policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2025 年任何復甦的最大挑戰將是抵押貸款利率的下降。由於利率在過去幾個月一直保持在 6.5% 以上，這似乎不太可能。不過，人們仍然希望如果通貨膨脹壓力繼續減輕，美聯儲將再進行一兩次降息，但考慮到新的關税政策，這現在是一個大問號。</p>
</div><p>According to experts, the best scenario would be for mortgage rates to drop between 4 and 5%, which would help the housing market return to “normal ” without significant side effects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據專家的説法，最佳情況是抵押貸款利率降至 4% 到 5% 之間，這將有助於房地產市場恢復到 “正常” 狀態，而不會產生顯著的副作用。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Buy or Wait In 2025?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年您應該買房還是等待？</h2>
</div><h3>Buy Now</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>現在買</h3>
</div><p>Ultimately, the big question is whether you should buy or wait in 2025 based on whether experts predict a housing bubble or a burst. The easy answer to this question is that timing the housing market, like the stock market, is next to impossible, so you must do what’s right for you at any given time. The hope is that improving inventory supplies will help to make the case for buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，關鍵問題是根據專家對 2025 年房市是否會出現泡沫或崩潰的預測，你應該購買還是等待。這個問題的簡單答案是，像股市一樣，準確把握房市時機幾乎是不可能的，因此你必須在任何時候做出適合自己的選擇。希望改善的庫存供應能夠為購房提供支持。</p>
</div><h3>Wait</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>等待</h3>
</div><p>However, the potential of an interest rate drop that would allow the market to see a number below 6% puts millions in a position of waiting to see what the Federal Reserve does next. The payment difference with just a single percentage point is thousands of dollars over the cost of 30 years, so the argument for waiting for a mortgage rate drop is well worth considering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，利率下降的潛力可能使市場看到低於 6% 的數字，這使得數百萬人的處境是等待美聯儲的下一步行動。僅僅一個百分點的支付差異在 30 年的成本上就可能是數千美元，因此等待抵押貸款利率下降的理由值得考慮。</p>
</div><h3>Other Considerations</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>其他考慮因素</h3>
</div><p>One additional consideration is where you are in the country. Areas like South Florida have been in a bubble for the last few years, so what happens there doesn’t apply to rural Kansas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個額外的考慮因素是你所在的國家地區。像南佛羅里達這樣的地區在過去幾年中一直處於泡沫中，因此那裏發生的事情並不適用於鄉村堪薩斯。</p>
</div><p>Separately, you also have to consider how tariffs and other policy changes from the presidential administration will affect inflation, which could reduce overall housing demand if prices start to increase across the board again on everyday goods. Due to the current uncertainty in early April 2025, it certainly makes the case to wait for things to settle down before buying a new home.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外，你還必須考慮總統政府的關税和其他政策變化將如何影響通貨膨脹，如果日常商品的價格再次普遍上漲，這可能會減少整體住房需求。由於 2025 年 4 月初的當前不確定性，確實有理由在購買新房之前等待局勢穩定。</p>
</div><p>The post Housing Bubble or Bust? What’s Next for Home Prices in 2025 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章《住房泡沫還是崩潰？2025 年房價的下一步是什麼》最早出現在 24/7 Wall St.上。</p>
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房地產泡沫還是市場崩盤？2025 年房價將何去何從