<p>認為運動服裝和鞋類公司 <strong>耐克</strong>（NKE 1.75%）在 2024 年底是一個不錯的買入時機的投資者，經過 30% 的下跌後，不幸的是，他們的判斷是錯誤的——至少目前是這樣。截至目前，該股票又下跌了 28%。這使得自 2024 年初以來，該股票的總損失達到了令人痛心的 50%。</p>
<p>在經歷如此巨大的下跌後，一些投資者可能會想知道現在是否是買入該股票的好時機。但投資者可能需要謹慎行事。儘管今天的估值更便宜，但仍然存在重大風險。</p>
<h2>令人失望的業務表現</h2>
<p>我們不妨直言不諱：耐克的業務正在遭受重創。最近一個季度的收入同比下降了 9%，每股收益下降了 30%，降至 0.54 美元。這與截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日的過去九個月的公司表現大致相符。這三個季度的總收入和每股收益同比下降了 9% 和 26%。</p>
<p>公司面臨的近期挑戰包括促銷環境、貨幣逆風、重組努力和關税。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，管理層認為其財政第四季度的表現將進一步惡化。公司預計財政第四季度的收入將同比下降中個位數的幅度。此外，耐克首席財務官 Matthew Friend 在公司財政第三季度的財報電話會議上表示，他預計公司財政第四季度的毛利率將比去年同期收窄 400 到 500 個基點。這比耐克在財政第三季度的毛利率同比下降 330 個基點的情況更糟。</p>
<p>耐克的麻煩還在於，特朗普總統在四月初的關税公告使全球貿易變得複雜，並導致消費者信心下降。這可能同時增加耐克的成本，造成生產中的新瓶頸，並對其商品的需求產生負面影響。</p>
<h2>儘管大幅回調，股票仍然不便宜</h2>
<p>所有這些挑戰可能是投資者可以忍受的，如果耐克的股票價格足夠便宜。但目前該股票的交易價格為過去 12 個月收益的 18 倍，以及分析師對公司未來 12 個月收益的共識估計的約 26 倍，股票仍然保持着健康的溢價。</p>
<p>當然，多頭會爭辯説，耐克目前歷史上疲弱的盈利能力可能只是公司長期軌跡中的一次暫時波動。如果這是一個確定的結果，那麼在當前估值下，股票可能是一個不錯的買入。</p>
<p>多頭可能還會指出：截至目前，耐克的股息收益率為 2.9%，這有助於降低在當前價格投資運動服裝和鞋類公司股票的風險。如此強勁的股息收益率意味着耐克的投資者在等待公司能否扭轉局面時，可以獲得穩定的現金流入。</p>
<p>然而，總體而言，耐克股票的風險回報價值主張在今天看起來並不特別吸引人。首先，如果公司的盈利在長期內未能如預期增長，或者恢復的時間比預期更長，股票未能顯著升值的風險就存在。此外，購買耐克股票以獲取股息收入的投資者應記住，公司並不保證會維持當前的股息政策。如果業務進一步惡化，耐克可能會暫停股息增長，甚至削減或減少其股息支付。</p>
<p>沒有人能確切知道未來會是什麼樣子，因此最好在一個能為耐克的扭轉故事留出更多空間的價格買入股票。因此，投資者在購買耐克股票時可能明智地保持更耐心。我個人會等到股票以更保守的市盈率交易時再考慮投資——也許是 20 到 22 倍的市盈率。這樣的估值將有助於降低潛在過高支付股票的風險。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克的股票在 2024 年暴跌了 50%，年初至今下降了 28%。最近的季度收入下降了 9%，每股收益下降了 30%。面臨的挑戰包括激烈的促銷環境、貨幣問題和關税。儘管股息收益率為 2.9%，但該股票的交易溢價使其吸引力降低。分析師建議在投資前等待更低的估值，因為潛在的收益恢復和股息可持續性仍存在高風險</p>

<p>Investors who thought sports apparel and shoe company <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 1.75%) was a good buy at the end of 2024, following a 30% decline, have unfortunately been dead wrong -- at least for now. Year to date, the stock has fallen another 28%. This puts the stock's total loss since the beginning of 2024 at a painful 50% as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>認為運動服裝和鞋類公司 <strong>耐克</strong>（NKE 1.75%）在 2024 年底是一個不錯的買入時機的投資者，經過 30% 的下跌後，不幸的是，他們的判斷是錯誤的——至少目前是這樣。截至目前，該股票又下跌了 28%。這使得自 2024 年初以來，該股票的總損失達到了令人痛心的 50%。</p>
</div><p>With such an extraordinary decline in the rearview mirror, some investors may be wondering if now is a good time to buy the stock. But investors may want to proceed cautiously. Despite its cheaper valuation today, there are still significant risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷如此巨大的下跌後，一些投資者可能會想知道現在是否是買入該股票的好時機。但投資者可能需要謹慎行事。儘管今天的估值更便宜，但仍然存在重大風險。</p>
</div><h2>Disappointing business performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>令人失望的業務表現</h2>
</div><p>Let's not sugar coat it: Nike's business is getting pummeled. Revenue in its most recent quarter fell 9% year over year and earnings per share declined 30% to $0.54. This is about in line with the company's performance for the trailing-nine-month period ended Feb. 28, 2025. Total revenue and earnings per share in these three quarters fell 9% and 26% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們不妨直言不諱：耐克的業務正在遭受重創。最近一個季度的收入同比下降了 9%，每股收益下降了 30%，降至 0.54 美元。這與截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日的過去九個月的公司表現大致相符。這三個季度的總收入和每股收益同比下降了 9% 和 26%。</p>
</div><p>Recent challenges for the company include a promotional environment, currency headwinds, restructuring efforts, and tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司面臨的近期挑戰包括促銷環境、貨幣逆風、重組努力和關税。</p>
</div><p>Making matters worse, management believes its fiscal fourth-quarter performance will deteriorate further. The company guided for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to be down by a rate in the mid-teens on a year-over-year basis. Additionally, Nike chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings call that he expects the company's fiscal fourth-quarer gross profit margin will narrow by 400 to 500 points compared to the year-ago quarter. This is worse than Nike's year-over-year gross margin decrease of 330 basis points in its fiscal third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，管理層認為其財政第四季度的表現將進一步惡化。公司預計財政第四季度的收入將同比下降中個位數的幅度。此外，耐克首席財務官 Matthew Friend 在公司財政第三季度的財報電話會議上表示，他預計公司財政第四季度的毛利率將比去年同期收窄 400 到 500 個基點。這比耐克在財政第三季度的毛利率同比下降 330 個基點的情況更糟。</p>
</div><p>Adding to Nike's troubles, President Donald Trump's tariff announcement in early April has complicated global trade and led to lower consumer confidence levels. This could simultaneously increase Nike's costs, create new bottlenecks in production, and negatively impact demand for its goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克的麻煩還在於，特朗普總統在四月初的關税公告使全球貿易變得複雜，並導致消費者信心下降。這可能同時增加耐克的成本，造成生產中的新瓶頸，並對其商品的需求產生負面影響。</p>
</div><h2>Despite a sharp pullback, shares still don't look cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>儘管大幅回調，股票仍然不便宜</h2>
</div><p>All of these challenges might be ones investors could live with if Nike shares were priced cheap enough. But with the stock currently trading at 18 times trailing-12-month earnings and approximately 26 times analysts' consensus estimate for the company's earnings over the next 12 months, the stock still commands a healthy premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些挑戰可能是投資者可以忍受的，如果耐克的股票價格足夠便宜。但目前該股票的交易價格為過去 12 個月收益的 18 倍，以及分析師對公司未來 12 個月收益的共識估計的約 26 倍，股票仍然保持着健康的溢價。</p>
</div><p>Bulls, of course, would argue that Nike's historically weak earnings power today may prove to be a temporary blip in the company's long-term trajectory. If this were a certain outcome, shares are probably a good buy at their current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，多頭會爭辯説，耐克目前歷史上疲弱的盈利能力可能只是公司長期軌跡中的一次暫時波動。如果這是一個確定的結果，那麼在當前估值下，股票可能是一個不錯的買入。</p>
</div><p>Another point bulls might make: Nike's dividend yield of 2.9% as of this writing helps lower the risk of investing in the sports apparel and shoe company's stock at its current price. A robust dividend yield like this means Nike investors get a solid stream of cash flow into their portfolios while they wait to see if the company can turn things around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多頭可能還會指出：截至目前，耐克的股息收益率為 2.9%，這有助於降低在當前價格投資運動服裝和鞋類公司股票的風險。如此強勁的股息收益率意味着耐克的投資者在等待公司能否扭轉局面時，可以獲得穩定的現金流入。</p>
</div><p>Overall, however, the risk-reward value proposition for Nike stock doesn't look particularly attractive today. First of all, there's the risk that shares fail to appreciate meaningfully if the company's earnings either don't grow as expected over the long haul or simply take longer than expected to recover. In addition, investors buying Nike shares for dividend income should keep in mind that there's no guarantee that the company will maintain its current dividend policy. If business deteriorates further, Nike could always pause dividend increases or even cut or reduce its dividend payout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，總體而言，耐克股票的風險回報價值主張在今天看起來並不特別吸引人。首先，如果公司的盈利在長期內未能如預期增長，或者恢復的時間比預期更長，股票未能顯著升值的風險就存在。此外，購買耐克股票以獲取股息收入的投資者應記住，公司並不保證會維持當前的股息政策。如果業務進一步惡化，耐克可能會暫停股息增長，甚至削減或減少其股息支付。</p>
</div><p>No one knows for sure what the future will look like, so it's best to buy shares at a price that leaves more room for some slip-ups in Nike's turnaround story. Investors, therefore, might be wise to be more patient when buying Nike shares. I'd personally wait to consider investing in shares until the stock trades at a more conservative multiple to its forward earnings -- perhaps a multiple of about 20 to 22. A valuation like this would help mitigate some of the risk of potentially overpaying for shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有人能確切知道未來會是什麼樣子，因此最好在一個能為耐克的扭轉故事留出更多空間的價格買入股票。因此，投資者在購買耐克股票時可能明智地保持更耐心。我個人會等到股票以更保守的市盈率交易時再考慮投資——也許是 20 到 22 倍的市盈率。這樣的估值將有助於降低潛在過高支付股票的風險。</p>
</div>

耐克股票今年大幅下跌。現在是買入的時機嗎？