<p>在 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.29%) 的世界裏，從來沒有無聊的時刻。這家電動汽車巨頭的股東經歷了一段狂熱期，股價在 2024 年選舉後飆升。然而，今天，股價距離歷史最高點下跌了約 50%，所有這些漲幅都已被抹去。同時，公司的利潤率持續下降，並且在全球各國的市場份額也在流失。</p>
<p>一如既往，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克對特斯拉的未來抱有宏偉的抱負。網絡出租車、新款跑車、人工智能（AI）項目，甚至還有特斯拉餐廳都在籌備中。然而，無論馬斯克對公司未來多麼興奮，有一個收益指標對這隻股票的價格至關重要，而目前看起來並不樂觀。</p>
<h2>交付緩慢，收入下滑</h2>
<p>特斯拉在週二交易結束後公佈了第一季度業績，股價在盤後交易中飆升。然而，這一上漲——儘管在隨後的交易中經歷了劇烈波動，但截至週四中午仍大致持續——部分原因可能是市場對特朗普總統關於美國對中國關税的言論以及他沒有計劃試圖解僱美聯儲主席鮑威爾的反應。如果你查看特斯拉的基本報告，數據並不好看。</p>
<p>特斯拉的電動汽車交付量同比下降了 13%。收入下降了 9%，僅因能源生產和儲存部門的快速增長而略有支撐。毛利率降至 16.3%。第一季度的營業利潤率僅為 2.1%，顯示出特斯拉在成本上升和其他電動汽車品牌競爭威脅下的脆弱。公司的市場份額在中國、北美和歐洲這三個重要市場的增長停滯不前，競爭對手正在逐漸蠶食這一曾經主導的電動汽車品牌。</p>
<p>管理層對 2025 年剩餘時間的前景也並不樂觀。他們推遲了提供指導數字，直到下個季度，並沒有對 2025 年剩餘時間的增長前景發表任何看法。這對於曾被認為是全球增長最快的科技公司之一來説，情況並不樂觀。</p>
<h2>新產品在哪裏？</h2>
<p>樂觀的投資者可能會説，投資者應該關注未來。特斯拉聲稱將在 2025 年推出一款新的、更實惠的車型，並表示計劃將年產能力提升至 300 萬輛。（特斯拉在 2024 年的產量略低於 200 萬輛。）對此，空頭可能會反問：這些車輛的購買者在哪裏？特斯拉的需求已經驟降，銷售量僅靠大幅降價來支撐，這導致了利潤率的崩潰。在競爭對手如 <strong>比亞迪</strong> 在中國市場上迅速搶佔市場份額的情況下，增加 100 萬輛新車的產能似乎並不是明智之舉。</p>
<p>公司還對其核心消費者電動汽車領域以外的新產品做出了大膽承諾。包括網絡出租車，這是一款預計將在 2026 年實現量產的自動駕駛車輛。其 Optimus 機器人仍在測試中，目前沒有公開的發佈時間表。這些產品可能在技術上具有創新性，但沒有人應該期待它們在財務上對特斯拉產生任何短期影響。在我看來，任何今天因為網絡出租車或 Optimus 而押注特斯拉股票的投資者，都是在給予一個屢次未能兑現承諾的管理團隊過多的信任。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>有一個指標比其他所有指標都重要</h2>
<p>一般來説，如果一家公司的基本業務的盈利能力在增長，那麼其股價在長期內會走高。但為了讓投資者從盈利增長中受益，合理的買入價格也很重要。</p>
<p>在特斯拉的情況下，既沒有底線增長，也沒有吸引人的估值。其盈利持續下降——在第一季度，其調整後的每股收益（EPS）為 0.27 美元，遠低於分析師預期的 0.39 美元。特斯拉的營業收入自 2022 年底以來一直在下降，如果其利潤率繼續低迷，預計在 2025 年還會繼續下降。</p>
<p>今天，投資者也無法以合理的價格購買特斯拉股票。該股的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 95——這一數字尚未反映分析師基於第一季度令人失望的收益可能更新的長期預測。前瞻市盈率是未來幾年決定特斯拉股票走勢的最重要指標，而相對於市場平均水平（通常在 20 到 25 之間），這一數字顯得極為高企。</p>
<p>從這個角度來看，特斯拉如此高的前瞻市盈率表明，未來幾年其股東將面臨更多的痛苦。現在避免購買這隻股票。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉的股票從峯值下跌了 50%，毛利率和市場份額也在下降。該公司報告電動車交付量下降了 13%，收入減少了 9%，引發了對其未來的擔憂。儘管有雄心勃勃的新車型計劃和增加產量的計劃，但需求正在減弱，利潤率受到競爭對手的壓力。分析師對特斯拉的復甦能力持懷疑態度，因為其未來市盈率為 95，表明在盈利下滑的情況下估值並不吸引人</p>

<p>There is never a dull moment in the land of <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.29%). The electric vehicle (EV) giant's shareholders went through a period of euphoria that sent the stock surging after the 2024 election. Today, with the stock down by around 50% from its all-time high, all these gains have been erased. Meanwhile, the company's margins continue to erode, and it's losing market share in countries around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.29%) 的世界裏，從來沒有無聊的時刻。這家電動汽車巨頭的股東經歷了一段狂熱期，股價在 2024 年選舉後飆升。然而，今天，股價距離歷史最高點下跌了約 50%，所有這些漲幅都已被抹去。同時，公司的利潤率持續下降，並且在全球各國的市場份額也在流失。</p>
</div><p>As ever, CEO Elon Musk has grand ambitions for the future of Tesla. Cybercabs, a new roadster, artificial intelligence (AI) projects, and even a Tesla Diner are in the works. Yet regardless of how excited Musk is about the company's future, one earnings metric matters above all else for this stock price, and it looks ugly right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一如既往，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克對特斯拉的未來抱有宏偉的抱負。網絡出租車、新款跑車、人工智能（AI）項目，甚至還有特斯拉餐廳都在籌備中。然而，無論馬斯克對公司未來多麼興奮，有一個收益指標對這隻股票的價格至關重要，而目前看起來並不樂觀。</p>
</div><h2>Slow deliveries, sinking revenue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交付緩慢，收入下滑</h2>
</div><p>Tesla reported its first-quarter results after the close of trading Tuesday, and its stock surged in after-hours trading. However, that upswing -- which, despite sharp oscillations in sessions that followed, has largely persisted as of midday Thursday -- was likely due in part to the broad market reaction to President Donald Trump's statements around U.S. tariffs on China and his lack of a plan to try to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. If you take a look at the underlying Tesla report, the numbers do not look good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在週二交易結束後公佈了第一季度業績，股價在盤後交易中飆升。然而，這一上漲——儘管在隨後的交易中經歷了劇烈波動，但截至週四中午仍大致持續——部分原因可能是市場對特朗普總統關於美國對中國關税的言論以及他沒有計劃試圖解僱美聯儲主席鮑威爾的反應。如果你查看特斯拉的基本報告，數據並不好看。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's EV deliveries fell 13% year over year. Revenue sank 9%, only slightly buoyed by the rapid growth of the energy generation and storage segment. Gross margin sank to 16.3%. Operating margin in Q1 was a razor-thin 2.1%, illustrating how threatened Tesla is by rising costs and competitive threats from other EV brands. The company's market share gains have stalled in all three of its important markets -- China, North America, and Europe -- as competitors gain ground on the once-dominant EV brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的電動汽車交付量同比下降了 13%。收入下降了 9%，僅因能源生產和儲存部門的快速增長而略有支撐。毛利率降至 16.3%。第一季度的營業利潤率僅為 2.1%，顯示出特斯拉在成本上升和其他電動汽車品牌競爭威脅下的脆弱。公司的市場份額在中國、北美和歐洲這三個重要市場的增長停滯不前，競爭對手正在逐漸蠶食這一曾經主導的電動汽車品牌。</p>
</div><p>Management is not optimistic about the rest of 2025, either. It delayed providing guidance numbers until next quarter, and offered no thoughts about what growth might look like for the rest of 2025. This is not a good spot for what was once considered one of the fastest-growing technology companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層對 2025 年剩餘時間的前景也並不樂觀。他們推遲了提供指導數字，直到下個季度，並沒有對 2025 年剩餘時間的增長前景發表任何看法。這對於曾被認為是全球增長最快的科技公司之一來説，情況並不樂觀。</p>
</div><h2>Where are the new products?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新產品在哪裏？</h2>
</div><p>Upbeat investors may say that investors should look to the future. Tesla claims that it will bring a new, more affordable vehicle model into production in 2025, and says it plans to boost its annual production capacity to 3 million vehicles. (Tesla produced just under 2 million vehicles in 2024.) To which a bear might reply: Where are the people clamoring to buy these vehicles? Demand for Teslas has fallen off a cliff, and sales volume is only being supported by steep price cuts that have collapsed profit margins. Adding capacity for 1 million new vehicles while competitors such as <strong>BYD</strong> wipe the floor with it by gaining market share in China does not seem like a wise move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>樂觀的投資者可能會説，投資者應該關注未來。特斯拉聲稱將在 2025 年推出一款新的、更實惠的車型，並表示計劃將年產能力提升至 300 萬輛。（特斯拉在 2024 年的產量略低於 200 萬輛。）對此，空頭可能會反問：這些車輛的購買者在哪裏？特斯拉的需求已經驟降，銷售量僅靠大幅降價來支撐，這導致了利潤率的崩潰。在競爭對手如 <strong>比亞迪</strong> 在中國市場上迅速搶佔市場份額的情況下，增加 100 萬輛新車的產能似乎並不是明智之舉。</p>
</div><p>The company is also making bold promises about new products outside of its core consumer EV niche. There is the Cybercab, an autonomous vehicle that it expects to ramp up to volume production in 2026. Its Optimus Robot is still under testing, and there's no publicly available timeline for when it might be released. These products may be technologically innovative, but nobody should expect them to move the needle financially for Tesla anytime soon. In my opinion, any investor who is betting on Tesla stock today because of the Cybercab or Optimus is giving too much credit to a management team that time and time again has made promises it later proved unable to fulfill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司還對其核心消費者電動汽車領域以外的新產品做出了大膽承諾。包括網絡出租車，這是一款預計將在 2026 年實現量產的自動駕駛車輛。其 Optimus 機器人仍在測試中，目前沒有公開的發佈時間表。這些產品可能在技術上具有創新性，但沒有人應該期待它們在財務上對特斯拉產生任何短期影響。在我看來，任何今天因為網絡出租車或 Optimus 而押注特斯拉股票的投資者，都是在給予一個屢次未能兑現承諾的管理團隊過多的信任。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>One metric matters above all else</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有一個指標比其他所有指標都重要</h2>
</div><p>Generally speaking, a company's stock price will move higher over the long term if the earnings power of the underlying business is growing. But for investors to benefit from that earnings growth, it helps to buy the stock at a reasonable price, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一般來説，如果一家公司的基本業務的盈利能力在增長，那麼其股價在長期內會走高。但為了讓投資者從盈利增長中受益，合理的買入價格也很重要。</p>
</div><p>In Tesla's case, neither bottom-line growth nor an appealing valuation are on offer. Its earnings keep declining -- in the first quarter, its $0.27 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in well below the $0.39 analyst expectation. Tesla's operating income has fallen since the end of 2022, and will likely keep falling in 2025 if its profit margins remain in the gutter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特斯拉的情況下，既沒有底線增長，也沒有吸引人的估值。其盈利持續下降——在第一季度，其調整後的每股收益（EPS）為 0.27 美元，遠低於分析師預期的 0.39 美元。特斯拉的營業收入自 2022 年底以來一直在下降，如果其利潤率繼續低迷，預計在 2025 年還會繼續下降。</p>
</div><p>Investors can't pick up Tesla shares at a reasonable price today, either. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 95 -- and that figure doesn't yet reflect how analysts are likely to update their longer-term forecasts based on Q1's disappointing earnings. Forward P/E is the one metric that will matter above all else in determining Tesla's stock direction over the next few years, and it is wildly high relative to the market's average, which tends to sit in the 20 to 25 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，投資者也無法以合理的價格購買特斯拉股票。該股的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 95——這一數字尚未反映分析師基於第一季度令人失望的收益可能更新的長期預測。前瞻市盈率是未來幾年決定特斯拉股票走勢的最重要指標，而相對於市場平均水平（通常在 20 到 25 之間），這一數字顯得極為高企。</p>
</div><p>In that light, the fact that Tesla carries such a lofty forward P/E ratio suggests that more pain is coming for its shareholders in the years to come. Avoid buying this stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個角度來看，特斯拉如此高的前瞻市盈率表明，未來幾年其股東將面臨更多的痛苦。現在避免購買這隻股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock's 50% Crash: 1 Metric Suggests More Pain Is Ahead for the Electric Vehicle Giant

- 特斯拉股價自 2024 年大選後暴漲，現已下跌約 50%。  
- 第一季度電動車交付量同比下降 13%，營收下降 9%。  
- 特斯拉的前瞻市盈率高達 95，暗示未來股東將面臨更多壓力。

特斯拉股票暴跌 50%：一項指標顯示這家電動汽車巨頭可能會遭遇更多困境