<p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）在過去 10 年中上漲超過 18,000%。在此期間，它是全球表現最好的股票之一，現在是全球市值第三大的公司。憑藉在人工智能（AI）計算機芯片方面的領先創新，我相信持有英偉達股票的人在長期內會表現良好。</p>
<p>然而，我認為在半導體行業中，有一家公司比英偉達更值得投資：<strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 0.57%）。作為全球最大的製造商，台積電實際上為英偉達和其他眾多計算機芯片設計公司製造計算機芯片。以下是我認為這家公司在 10 年後會比英偉達更有價值的原因。</p>
<h2>一切始於台積電</h2>
<p>與英偉達相比，台積電是一家相對不為人知的公司，它是一家合同製造商，為其他公司製造計算機芯片，但不設計和競爭銷售計算機芯片。它擁有廣泛的客户，如 <strong>蘋果</strong>、英偉達和 <strong>博通</strong>。</p>
<p>通過不斷努力改善其製造流程，台積電是全球唯一一家能夠製造用於 AI 產品的尖端計算機芯片的公司，除了三星可能也是如此。因此，像英偉達這樣的客户很難離開台積電去尋找其他製造商，或者冒着在半導體 AI 競爭中落後的風險。</p>
<p>在我看來，台積電似乎在這種情況下擁有大部分的權力。報道稱，台積電可能會在其位於亞利桑那州的製造廠提高 30% 的價格，以將關税成本轉嫁給客户。對於像蘋果或英偉達這樣的客户來説，由於這些價格上漲而離開幾乎是不可能的，或者嘗試自己製造這些芯片。台積電的客户基本上被迫接受公司所説的芯片價格。</p>
<h2>穩定增長，客户多樣化</h2>
<p>台積電的盈利增長沒有英偉達那麼迅猛，但在按營業收入計算時，它仍然是全球最大的公司之一。過去 12 個月，該公司產生了近 460 億美元的營業收入，而英偉達的營業收入為 815 億美元。</p>
<p>得益於全球對半導體和計算機芯片需求的穩定長期增長，台積電應該能夠在未來 10 年保持這種穩定的增長。它還擁有客户多樣化，這將幫助它在半導體需求來源不一的情況下保持強勁。如果英偉達失去市場份額，而 <strong>超微</strong> 或來自 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 的本土芯片獲得份額，這仍將推動台積電的底線。如果蘋果失去市場份額給其他智能手機制造商，那家公司很可能也會使用在台積電工廠製造的計算機芯片。</p>
<p>英偉達是一項對單一公司創新能力的投資，這在過去幾年是一個不錯的選擇。然而，這使得英偉達的股票比台積電風險更大，因為台積電在這種關係中擁有大部分權力，並且對整個半導體市場的曝光面更廣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 營業收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>為什麼台積電在 10 年後會比英偉達更有價值</h2>
<p>由於這種關係的權力動態，台積電的股票在 10 年後應該會比英偉達更有價值。它目前的市值為 8180 億美元，而英偉達為 2.5 萬億美元，這使得這一躍升並非不切實際。在其歷史的大部分時間裏，英偉達的市值低於台積電，並且年收益水平也較低。</p>
<p>台積電可以提高客户的價格，以轉嫁影響其自身收入報表的任何通貨膨脹或關税成本。像英偉達這樣的客户將不得不承擔這些成本，將原本是英偉達的利潤轉移到台積電的利潤上。如果由於美國的關税政策發生價格上漲，英偉達別無選擇，只能接受這些漲價。</p>
<p>在過去幾年中，英偉達從 AI 支出的激增中受益匪淺。但它並不能保證在 10 年後仍然是領先的半導體品牌。考慮到台積電在半導體制造方面的巨大領先優勢，以及公司在技術和實際支出方面複製其工廠所需經歷的困難，台積電在 10 年後很可能仍將是先進半導體的領先製造商。</p>
<p>基於這些原因，我認為台積電在 10 年後會比英偉達更有價值，並且對於以今天的價格購買的股東來説，表現會更好。</p>

台積電

<p>這篇文章預測，台積電將在未來十年內超越英偉達，成為市場價值更高的公司。儘管英偉達經歷了顯著的增長，但台積電作為主要科技公司的領先代工廠商，加上其提價能力和對半導體的穩定需求，使其處於有利位置。台積電多樣化的客户基礎和製造能力使其具備優勢，相較於高度依賴人工智能技術創新的英偉達，台積電被視為風險較小的投資</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) is up over 18,000% in the last 10 years. It is one of the best-performing stocks in the world during that time and is now the third-largest company in the world by market capitalization. With its lead in innovation on artificial intelligence (AI) computer chips, I believe holders of Nvidia stock will do well over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）在過去 10 年中上漲超過 18,000%。在此期間，它是全球表現最好的股票之一，現在是全球市值第三大的公司。憑藉在人工智能（AI）計算機芯片方面的領先創新，我相信持有英偉達股票的人在長期內會表現良好。</p>
</div><p>However, I think there is a better company in the semiconductor sector to buy instead of Nvidia: <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.57%). Known as TSMC, this gigantic manufacturer is the company that actually makes computer chips for Nvidia and a whole host of other computer chip designers. Here's why I believe the company will be worth more than Nvidia 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我認為在半導體行業中，有一家公司比英偉達更值得投資：<strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 0.57%）。作為全球最大的製造商，台積電實際上為英偉達和其他眾多計算機芯片設計公司製造計算機芯片。以下是我認為這家公司在 10 年後會比英偉達更有價值的原因。</p>
</div><h2>It all starts with TSMC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切始於台積電</h2>
</div><p>A relatively unknown company compared to Nvidia, TSMC is a contract manufacturer that builds computer chips for other companies, but does not design and compete to sell computer chips itself. It has a wide range of customers such as <strong>Apple</strong>, Nvidia, and <strong>Broadcom</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與英偉達相比，台積電是一家相對不為人知的公司，它是一家合同製造商，為其他公司製造計算機芯片，但不設計和競爭銷售計算機芯片。它擁有廣泛的客户，如 <strong>蘋果</strong>、英偉達和 <strong>博通</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Through its relentless drive to improve its manufacturing processes, TSMC is the only company in the world outside of maybe Samsung that can build cutting-edge computer chips utilized for AI products. For that reason, customers such as Nvidia will have a hard time leaving TSMC for another manufacturer or risk falling behind in the semiconductor AI race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過不斷努力改善其製造流程，台積電是全球唯一一家能夠製造用於 AI 產品的尖端計算機芯片的公司，除了三星可能也是如此。因此，像英偉達這樣的客户很難離開台積電去尋找其他製造商，或者冒着在半導體 AI 競爭中落後的風險。</p>
</div><p>From my seat, TSMC seems to have most of the power in the situation. Reports are coming out that TSMC may raise prices by 30% at its fabrication facility in Arizona in order to pass on tariff costs to customers. It would be close to impossible for customers like Apple or Nvidia to leave because of these price hikes or try to manufacture these chips themselves. TSMC customers are essentially forced to take whatever price the company says its chips will cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，台積電似乎在這種情況下擁有大部分的權力。報道稱，台積電可能會在其位於亞利桑那州的製造廠提高 30% 的價格，以將關税成本轉嫁給客户。對於像蘋果或英偉達這樣的客户來説，由於這些價格上漲而離開幾乎是不可能的，或者嘗試自己製造這些芯片。台積電的客户基本上被迫接受公司所説的芯片價格。</p>
</div><h2>Steady growth, customer diversification</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>穩定增長，客户多樣化</h2>
</div><p>TSMC has not grown its earnings as explosively as Nvidia, but it is still one of the largest companies in the world when measured by operating income. The company generated almost $46 billion in operating earnings over the past 12 months compared to Nvidia's $81.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電的盈利增長沒有英偉達那麼迅猛，但在按營業收入計算時，它仍然是全球最大的公司之一。過去 12 個月，該公司產生了近 460 億美元的營業收入，而英偉達的營業收入為 815 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Backed by the steady long-term growth in demand for semiconductors and computer chips around the world, TSMC should be able to keep up this steady growth over the next 10 years. It is also has customer diversification that will help it stay strong regardless of where semiconductor demand is originating. If Nvidia loses market share and competitors such as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> or homegrown chips from <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> gain share, that is still going to boost TSMC's bottom line. If Apple loses market share to another smartphone maker, that company will most likely also be using computer chips made at a TSMC factory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益於全球對半導體和計算機芯片需求的穩定長期增長，台積電應該能夠在未來 10 年保持這種穩定的增長。它還擁有客户多樣化，這將幫助它在半導體需求來源不一的情況下保持強勁。如果英偉達失去市場份額，而 <strong>超微</strong> 或來自 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 的本土芯片獲得份額，這仍將推動台積電的底線。如果蘋果失去市場份額給其他智能手機制造商，那家公司很可能也會使用在台積電工廠製造的計算機芯片。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is a bet on a single company's ability to innovate ahead of the competition, which has been a good bet for years. However, it makes Nvidia a much riskier stock than TSMC, with TSMC holding most of the power in the relationship and having much broader exposure to the entire semiconductor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達是一項對單一公司創新能力的投資，這在過去幾年是一個不錯的選擇。然而，這使得英偉達的股票比台積電風險更大，因為台積電在這種關係中擁有大部分權力，並且對整個半導體市場的曝光面更廣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 營業收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Why TSMC will be worth more than Nvidia in 10 years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼台積電在 10 年後會比英偉達更有價值</h2>
</div><p>Due to the power dynamics of the relationship, TSMC stock should be worth more than Nvidia 10 years from now. It has a current market cap of $818 billion compared to Nvidia's $2.5 trillion, making the leap not so far-fetched. For most of its history, Nvidia has been worth less than TSMC when measured by market capitalization and has generated a smaller level of annual earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於這種關係的權力動態，台積電的股票在 10 年後應該會比英偉達更有價值。它目前的市值為 8180 億美元，而英偉達為 2.5 萬億美元，這使得這一躍升並非不切實際。在其歷史的大部分時間裏，英偉達的市值低於台積電，並且年收益水平也較低。</p>
</div><p>TSMC can raise prices on customers to pass off any inflation or tariff costs impacting its own income statement. Its customers such as Nvidia will have to eat these costs, transferring what was once a profit for Nvidia to a profit for TSMC. Nvidia has no choice but to accept these price hikes if they occur due to the tariff policies of the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電可以提高客户的價格，以轉嫁影響其自身收入報表的任何通貨膨脹或關税成本。像英偉達這樣的客户將不得不承擔這些成本，將原本是英偉達的利潤轉移到台積電的利潤上。如果由於美國的關税政策發生價格上漲，英偉達別無選擇，只能接受這些漲價。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has benefited mightily from the boom in AI spending in the last few years. But it is not guaranteed to be the leading semiconductor brand 10 years from now. Given its immense lead in semiconductor fabrication and the difficulties a company would have to go through to replicate its factories (both technologically and in terms of actual money spent), TSMC is likely to be the leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，英偉達從 AI 支出的激增中受益匪淺。但它並不能保證在 10 年後仍然是領先的半導體品牌。考慮到台積電在半導體制造方面的巨大領先優勢，以及公司在技術和實際支出方面複製其工廠所需經歷的困難，台積電在 10 年後很可能仍將是先進半導體的領先製造商。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I think TSMC will be worth more than Nvidia 10 years from now and perform better for shareholders who buy at today's prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於這些原因，我認為台積電在 10 年後會比英偉達更有價值，並且對於以今天的價格購買的股東來説，表現會更好。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 1 Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia 10 Years From Now

- Nvidia 在過去 10 年上漲超過 18,000%，市值排名第三。  
- TSMC 是全球領先的半導體制造商，客户包括 Nvidia 和 Apple。  
- 預計 10 年後 TSMC 的市值將超過 Nvidia，因其定價能力和市場多樣性。  

預測：十年後有一隻股票的價值將超過英偉達