<p>儘管華爾街是真正的財富創造機器，但如果沒有股票雙向波動的能力，股市就不會被稱為 “市場”。</p><p>在過去一個月中，<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>(^DJI 0.75%)、<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.58%) 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>(^IXIC 0.55%) 經歷了歷史性的波動。例如，標準普爾 500 指數在 4 月 3 日和 4 月 4 日錄得歷史上第五大兩日百分比跌幅（-10.5%），然後在 4 月 9 日反彈，創下自成立以來單日最大點數漲幅。道瓊斯和納斯達克綜合指數在 4 月 9 日也分別創下歷史上最大的名義點數漲幅。</p><p>華爾街的劇烈波動主要被歸咎於特朗普總統的關税政策。雖然不可否認，特朗普的關税計劃的各個方面確實導致了短暫的恐懼和不確定性，但對股市來説，關税之外還有更大的擔憂。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/6dd8e336fe2805caad26afae4cc4cd47?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="484" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/6dd8e336fe2805caad26afae4cc4cd47"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="whvcs7v7i">特朗普總統的關税計劃導致短期緊張和不確定性</h2><p>目前，所有的目光都集中在特朗普及其政府身上。這是因為特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣佈的 “解放日” 實施了 10% 的全球關税，並對與美國曆史上存在貿易逆差的多個國家引入了更高的 “對等關税”。截至 4 月 9 日，特朗普已對除中國以外的所有國家暫停了 90 天的對等關税。</p><p>從紙面上看，關税相對簡單明瞭。它們的設立是為了保護國內就業，並幫助美國商品在價格上更具競爭力。例如，如果外國汽車製造商在美國銷售的車輛需要支付額外的關税，美國人可能更傾向於購買美國製造的汽車。</p><p>但並不是所有紙面上的內容都能轉化為現實。</p><p>首先，關税有可能加劇或惡化與我們的盟友和其他關鍵合作伙伴（如中國）的貿易關係。其他國家可能會以自己的報復性關税作出回應，或者外國消費者/企業可能選擇不購買美國製造的商品。</p><p>此外，特朗普的關税有可能重新點燃當前的通貨膨脹率，通貨膨脹率已從 2022 年超過 9% 的峯值降至目前不到 3%。特朗普政府並沒有密切關注產出關税和輸入關税之間的差異。前者是對進口到美國的成品徵收的關税，而後者是對用於在國內完成成品的商品徵收的關税。輸入關税可能使美國產品變得更昂貴，從而在價格上不如從海外進口的商品具競爭力。</p><p>投資者對特朗普總統頻繁更改哪些產品需繳納關税、哪些國家需繳納關税以及這些關税率感到不滿。政府沒有提供一致的信息或計劃，這加劇了我們在華爾街所見的短期緊張和不確定性。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/494bda3f6d2ad55880642133ef5115a9?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/494bda3f6d2ad55880642133ef5115a9"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="5j7vrcw1d">華爾街面臨更大的問題：盈利質量</h2><p>儘管投資者似乎在翹首以待關税消息，但這可能只是一個短期問題，就像 2018-2019 年特朗普對中國實施關税時一樣。在特朗普的關税之外，真正的逆風和對股市特性的考驗在於其盈利質量。</p><p>雖然情緒可能在短期內劇烈波動股票，但公司能否隨着時間的推移增長銷售和利潤，最終決定了估值是否上升。儘管華爾街一些最具影響力的企業看起來健康，並且每股收益（EPS）在向好的方向發展，但深入分析顯示，華爾街一些最重要的企業存在盈利問題。</p><p>例如，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) 通常被視為一家快速增長的電動汽車製造商，明智地利用其先發優勢。它已經連續五年盈利，並正在擴大其附屬業務，包括能源生產和儲存，這將有助於多樣化其收入來源。</p><p>但這也是一家持續從不可持續來源（如監管税收抵免和現金產生的利息收入）中獲得更高比例税前收入的公司。事實上，如果沒有 5.95 億美元的汽車監管抵免，特斯拉在第一季度將宣佈税前虧損。一家曾經的萬億公司不應該如此依賴不可持續的收入來源。</p><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.60%) 的情況也有些類似，它曾在市值方面長時間位居華爾街最有價值公司之首。蘋果是消費者的最愛，其向服務導向業務的轉型在首席執行官蒂姆·庫克的監督下進展順利。</p><p>然而，儘管蘋果有着輝煌的歷史，其整體增長引擎（包括其實體產品的銷售（iPhone、Mac 和 iPad））卻停滯不前。得益於其市場領先的股票回購計劃，蘋果能夠掩蓋這一表現不佳。但深入挖掘，投資者會發現，蘋果的淨收入已從 2022 財年（截至 9 月底）中的 998 億美元下降至 2024 財年中的 937 億美元。</p><p>即使是華爾街最新的人工智能（AI）寵兒 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 1.22%）也無法逃脱指責。從表面上看，Palantir 已經實現了持續盈利，並保持了兩位數的增長率，這在很大程度上得益於其 AI 驅動的 Gotham 平台與美國政府簽署的多年合同。</p><p>儘管其令人矚目的增長率和尖端的 AI 關聯，Palantir 的税前收入中有相當大一部分來自於其超過 52 億美元的現金、現金等價物和可交易證券所產生的利息——2024 年為 1.968 億美元，佔 4.892 億美元的税前收入。Palantir 在其估值高達銷售額的 96 倍時，竟有 40% 的税前收入來自非創新來源（利息收入），這並不可持續。</p><p>考慮到股市在 2025 年以其 154 年曆史上第三高的估值進入，盈利質量是一個 <i>嚴重</i> 的問題。標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller 市盈率（P/E Ratio），也可以稱為週期調整市盈率（CAPE Ratio），在 2024 年 12 月幾乎達到了 39。作為參考，自 1871 年 1 月以來，Shiller 市盈率的平均值為 17.23。</p><p>在標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller 市盈率超過 30 的五個先前實例中，最終都伴隨着道瓊斯、標準普爾 500 和/或納斯達克綜合指數至少 20% 的下跌。高估值在長期內是不可容忍的，這使得在市場處於歷史高昂倍數時，盈利質量顯得尤為重要。</p><p>除非美國最具影響力的企業開始在關鍵領域交付成果，否則將面臨比關税更大的挑戰。</p>

蘋果

特斯拉

<p>最近股市經歷了顯著的波動，標普 500 和道瓊斯等主要指數面臨歷史性的下跌和上漲。儘管特朗普總統的關税政策造成了短期的不確定性，但投資者更關心的是企業盈利的質量。儘管特斯拉和蘋果等公司在市場上佔據重要地位，但它們越來越依賴不可持續的收入來源，這引發了對其長期盈利能力的質疑。這種對盈利質量的關注可能會掩蓋關税消息對華爾街的即時影響</p>

<p>Although Wall Street is a bona fide wealth-building machine, the stock market wouldn't be a &#34;market&#34; without the ability for equities to move in both directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管華爾街是真正的財富創造機器，但如果沒有股票雙向波動的能力，股市就不會被稱為 “市場”。</p>
</div><p>Over the last month, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.75%), <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.58%), and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 0.55%) have endured historic bouts of volatility. For instance, the S&amp;P 500 recorded its fifth-largest two-day percentage decline on record (-10.5%) on April 3 and April 4, then turned around to register its largest single-session point gain since its inception on April 9. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite also logged their respective biggest nominal point gains in history on April 9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一個月中，<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>(^DJI 0.75%)、<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.58%) 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>(^IXIC 0.55%) 經歷了歷史性的波動。例如，標準普爾 500 指數在 4 月 3 日和 4 月 4 日錄得歷史上第五大兩日百分比跌幅（-10.5%），然後在 4 月 9 日反彈，創下自成立以來單日最大點數漲幅。道瓊斯和納斯達克綜合指數在 4 月 9 日也分別創下歷史上最大的名義點數漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's whiplash has primarily been blamed on President Donald Trump's tariff policy. While there's no denying that short-lived fear and uncertainty have resulted from various aspects of the president's tariff plans, there's a far bigger worry for the stock market than tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的劇烈波動主要被歸咎於特朗普總統的關税政策。雖然不可否認，特朗普的關税計劃的各個方面確實導致了短暫的恐懼和不確定性，但對股市來説，關税之外還有更大的擔憂。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYyMzAvbnlzZS13YWxsLXN0cmVldC1zdG9jay1leGNoYW5nZS1pbnZlc3QtYnV5LXNlbGwtZG93LWpvbmVzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816230%2Fnyse-wall-street-stock-exchange-invest-buy-sell-dow-jones-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>President Trump's tariff plans lead to short-term jitters and uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普總統的關税計劃導致短期緊張和不確定性</h2>
</div><p>For the moment, all eyes are on Donald Trump and his administration. This follows Trump's &#34;Liberation Day&#34; announcement on April 2, which implemented a 10% global tariff, as well as introduced higher &#34;reciprocal tariffs&#34; on dozens of countries that have historically run trade deficits with the U.S. Trump has since placed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China (as of April 9).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，所有的目光都集中在特朗普及其政府身上。這是因為特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣佈的 “解放日” 實施了 10% 的全球關税，並對與美國曆史上存在貿易逆差的多個國家引入了更高的 “對等關税”。截至 4 月 9 日，特朗普已對除中國以外的所有國家暫停了 90 天的對等關税。</p>
</div><p>On paper, tariffs are relatively cut-and-dried. They're put in place to protect domestic jobs and help make American goods more price competitive. For example, if foreign automakers have to pay an added duty on their vehicles sold in the U.S., Americans might be more likely to purchase American-made vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從紙面上看，關税相對簡單明瞭。它們的設立是為了保護國內就業，並幫助美國商品在價格上更具競爭力。例如，如果外國汽車製造商在美國銷售的車輛需要支付額外的關税，美國人可能更傾向於購買美國製造的汽車。</p>
</div><p>But not everything that's laid out on paper translates into the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但並不是所有紙面上的內容都能轉化為現實。</p>
</div><p>For one, tariffs run the risk of straining or worsening trade relations with our allies and other key partners, such as China. Other countries may respond with retaliatory tariffs of their own, or foreign consumers/businesses may opt not to buy American-made goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，關税有可能加劇或惡化與我們的盟友和其他關鍵合作伙伴（如中國）的貿易關係。其他國家可能會以自己的報復性關税作出回應，或者外國消費者/企業可能選擇不購買美國製造的商品。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Trump's tariffs have the potential to reignite the prevailing rate of inflation, which has fallen from a peak of more than 9% in 2022 to less than 3% currently. The Trump administration isn't paying close attention to the difference between output and input tariffs. Whereas the former is a duty placed on a finished product imported into the U.S., the latter is placed on a good used to complete a finished product domestically. Input tariffs can make American products more expensive and less price-competitive with those being brought in from overseas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特朗普的關税有可能重新點燃當前的通貨膨脹率，通貨膨脹率已從 2022 年超過 9% 的峯值降至目前不到 3%。特朗普政府並沒有密切關注產出關税和輸入關税之間的差異。前者是對進口到美國的成品徵收的關税，而後者是對用於在國內完成成品的商品徵收的關税。輸入關税可能使美國產品變得更昂貴，從而在價格上不如從海外進口的商品具競爭力。</p>
</div><p>Investors also aren't happy with President Trump regularly changing which products are subject to tariffs, which countries are paying tariffs, and what those tariff rates are. There's been no consistent message or game plan from the administration, which is fueling the short-term jitters and uncertainty we're witnessing on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對特朗普總統頻繁更改哪些產品需繳納關税、哪些國家需繳納關税以及這些關税率感到不滿。政府沒有提供一致的信息或計劃，這加劇了我們在華爾街所見的短期緊張和不確定性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYyMzAvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816230%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street has a far bigger problem: Earnings quality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>華爾街面臨更大的問題：盈利質量</h2>
</div><p>Though investors are seemingly waiting on the edge of their seat for tariff news, this is likely to be a short-term issue, as it was in 2018-2019 when Trump instituted tariffs on China. Beyond Trump's tariffs lies a true headwind and test of the stock market's character -- its earnings quality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管投資者似乎在翹首以待關税消息，但這可能只是一個短期問題，就像 2018-2019 年特朗普對中國實施關税時一樣。在特朗普的關税之外，真正的逆風和對股市特性的考驗在於其盈利質量。</p>
</div><p>While emotions can whipsaw equities over short periods, the ability for companies to grow their sales and profits over time is what ultimately determines if valuations climb. Although many of Wall Street's most-influential businesses appear to be healthy and moving their earnings per share (EPS) needle in the right direction, a deeper dive shows that some of Wall Street's most-important businesses have an earnings problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然情緒可能在短期內劇烈波動股票，但公司能否隨着時間的推移增長銷售和利潤，最終決定了估值是否上升。儘管華爾街一些最具影響力的企業看起來健康，並且每股收益（EPS）在向好的方向發展，但深入分析顯示，華爾街一些最重要的企業存在盈利問題。</p>
</div><p>For instance, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) is commonly viewed as a fast-growing electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer that's wisely riding its first-mover advantages. It's been profitable for five consecutive years and is the midst of ramping up its ancillary operations, including energy generation and storage, which will help to diversify its revenue stream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) 通常被視為一家快速增長的電動汽車製造商，明智地利用其先發優勢。它已經連續五年盈利，並正在擴大其附屬業務，包括能源生產和儲存，這將有助於多樣化其收入來源。</p>
</div><p>But it's also a company that's been consistently generating a higher percentage of its pre-tax income from unsustainable sources, such as regulatory tax credits and interest income earned on its cash. In fact, Tesla would have announced a pre-tax <em>loss</em> for the first quarter without the aid of $595 million in automotive regulatory credits, which are given to it for free by governments. A former trillion-dollar company shouldn't be this reliant on unsustainable income sources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這也是一家持續從不可持續來源（如監管税收抵免和現金產生的利息收入）中獲得更高比例税前收入的公司。事實上，如果沒有 5.95 億美元的汽車監管抵免，特斯拉在第一季度將宣佈税前虧損。一家曾經的萬億公司不應該如此依賴不可持續的收入來源。</p>
</div><p>It's somewhat of a similar story for <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.60%), which has spent quite a bit of time atop the pedestal as Wall Street's most-valuable company by market cap. Apple is a consumer favorite, and its push to become a services-oriented business, which is being overseen by CEO Tim Cook, is working out nicely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.60%) 的情況也有些類似，它曾在市值方面長時間位居華爾街最有價值公司之首。蘋果是消費者的最愛，其向服務導向業務的轉型在首席執行官蒂姆·庫克的監督下進展順利。</p>
</div><p>Yet in spite of Apple's rich history, its collective growth engine, which includes the sale of its physical products (iPhone, Mac, and iPad), has stalled. Thanks to its market-leading share repurchase program, which helps to support or lift its EPS, Apple has been able to sweep this underperformance under the rug. But digging below the surface, investors will find that Apple's net income has declined from $99.8 billion in fiscal 2022 (ended in late September) to $93.7 billion in fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，儘管蘋果有着輝煌的歷史，其整體增長引擎（包括其實體產品的銷售（iPhone、Mac 和 iPad））卻停滯不前。得益於其市場領先的股票回購計劃，蘋果能夠掩蓋這一表現不佳。但深入挖掘，投資者會發現，蘋果的淨收入已從 2022 財年（截至 9 月底）中的 998 億美元下降至 2024 財年中的 937 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Even Wall Street's newest artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 1.22%) can't escape the finger-pointing. On the surface, Palantir has made the push to recurring profitability and is sustaining a double-digit growth rate, largely due to the multi-year contracts its AI-driven Gotham platform has signed with the U.S. government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是華爾街最新的人工智能（AI）寵兒 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 1.22%）也無法逃脱指責。從表面上看，Palantir 已經實現了持續盈利，並保持了兩位數的增長率，這在很大程度上得益於其 AI 驅動的 Gotham 平台與美國政府簽署的多年合同。</p>
</div><p>Despite its eye-popping growth rate and cutting-edge AI ties, Palantir generates a sizable percentage of its pre-tax income from interest earned on its more than $5.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities -- $196.8 million out of $489.2 million in 2024. Palantir netting 40% of its pre-tax income from a noninnovative source (interest income) when it's valued at a whopping 96 times sales isn't sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管其令人矚目的增長率和尖端的 AI 關聯，Palantir 的税前收入中有相當大一部分來自於其超過 52 億美元的現金、現金等價物和可交易證券所產生的利息——2024 年為 1.968 億美元，佔 4.892 億美元的税前收入。Palantir 在其估值高達銷售額的 96 倍時，竟有 40% 的税前收入來自非創新來源（利息收入），這並不可持續。</p>
</div><p>Earnings quality is a <em>serious</em> issue considering the stock market entered 2025 at its third-priciest valuation when back-tested 154 years. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio, which you may also see referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio), almost hit 39 in December 2024. For context, the average Shiller P/E Ratio since January 1871 is 17.23.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到股市在 2025 年以其 154 年曆史上第三高的估值進入，盈利質量是一個 <em>嚴重</em> 的問題。標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller 市盈率（P/E Ratio），也可以稱為週期調整市盈率（CAPE Ratio），在 2024 年 12 月幾乎達到了 39。作為參考，自 1871 年 1 月以來，Shiller 市盈率的平均值為 17.23。</p>
</div><p>The five previous instances where the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E topped 30 were all eventually followed by declines of at least 20% in the Dow, S&amp;P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite. Premium valuations aren't tolerated over the long run, which makes earnings quality all the more important with the market at a historically expensive multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在標準普爾 500 指數的 Shiller 市盈率超過 30 的五個先前實例中，最終都伴隨着道瓊斯、標準普爾 500 和/或納斯達克綜合指數至少 20% 的下跌。高估值在長期內是不可容忍的，這使得在市場處於歷史高昂倍數時，盈利質量顯得尤為重要。</p>
</div><p>Unless America's most-influential businesses begin delivering where it counts, there will be bigger fish to fry than tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非美國最具影響力的企業開始在關鍵領域交付成果，否則將面臨比關税更大的挑戰。</p>
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Think Tariffs Are Wall Street's Biggest Worry? Then You're Probably Not Paying Attention to This Much Larger Problem.

- 道瓊斯、標普 500 和納斯達克在過去一個月經歷了劇烈波動。  
- 特朗普的關税政策引發短期不安，但更大問題在於企業盈利質量。  
- 盈利質量差可能導致市場在高估值下面臨更大風險。

認為關税是華爾街最大的擔憂？那麼你可能沒有關注到這個更大的問題