<p>2022 年 11 月 30 日，ChatGPT 的推出代表了引發人工智能（AI）革命的主要催化劑之一。自那時以來，半導體股票 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的股價飆升了驚人的 550%，使該公司轉變為一家萬億美元企業。雖然半導體芯片仍應是 AI 發展的重要組成部分，但投資者希望識別超越 Nvidia 的新增長機會。</p>
<p><strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 3.68%）是另一家在未來十年內有望主導 AI 芯片領域的公司。其增長前景和估值趨勢支持了台積電為何是我目前在芯片領域的首選。</p>
<h2>台積電是推動芯片繁榮的引擎</h2>
<p>你可能對 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>超微半導體</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong> 等名字並不陌生，這些公司在構建 AI 應用所需的先進芯片和數據中心基礎設施方面發揮着重要作用。然而，你可能不太熟悉的是台積電在背後的角色。</p>
<p>Nvidia、AMD、博通、OpenAI、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>高通</strong> 等許多公司依賴台積電的製造工藝來幫助生產他們的芯片和集成系統產品。換句話説，台積電將 AI 最大參與者的工程實力轉化為現實。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY1MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY1MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>台積電的增長才剛剛開始</h2>
<p>在 2024 年，台積電的銷售額為 883 億美元，每股收益為 6.81 美元。根據以下共識預期，華爾街預計該公司的營收將在未來幾年繼續快速增長，同時保持健康的盈利能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>根據 Precedence Research，半導體市場中的 AI 預計到 2034 年將達到 2330 億美元的市場規模。考慮到台積電已經佔據了超過 60% 的代工市場，加上其長期以來的行業領先芯片設計師客户名單以及定製硅芯片的興起，台積電處於一個良好的位置，有望實現甚至超越上述財務預期。</p>
<h2>以合理的價格實現巨大的增長</h2>
<p>截至目前，台積電的市盈率（P/E）為 21。這與其 10 年的平均倍數相符。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>但台積電的估值在過去幾個月顯著壓縮，主要原因是美國新關税和貿易政策的不確定性持續存在。</p>
<p>雖然很難預測何時會緩解持續的貿易談判，但我傾向於認為，增長型股票目前被低估。從宏觀角度來看，關税隨時可能改變，而當前的政策不會永遠持續。投資者高估了關税對台積電短期業務的影響，同時低估了該公司長期機會的光明前景。</p>
<p>與投資 Nvidia 不同，購買台積電股票在某種程度上更像是對整體芯片需求和 AI 基礎設施支出的長期押注。換句話説，無論哪家公司的芯片或數據中心設備需求最旺盛，台積電都將受益。</p>
<p>這使得該公司處於一個新興的、世代性的巨型趨勢中。台積電的增長前景是過去十年來最好的，但該公司的估值與其 10 年的平均水平沒有變化，甚至相較於 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數還存在折扣。</p>
<p>綜合來看，你會發現台積電是未來十年最值得擁有的芯片股票的明確理由。</p>

英偉達財報，一站看懂！

台積電

<p>台灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）預計將在未來十年成為表現最佳的半導體股票，超越英偉達（Nvidia）。TSMC 在人工智能芯片生產中扮演着關鍵角色，支持着英偉達和 AMD 等主要公司。到 2034 年，半導體領域的人工智能市場規模預計將達到 2330 億美元，TSMC 在代工市場中佔據超過 60% 的份額。儘管由於貿易政策的不確定性導致近期估值壓縮，TSMC 的增長前景依然強勁，使其成為芯片行業中一個引人注目的長期投資</p>

<p>The launch of ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022 represented one of the leading catalysts that sparked the revolution around artificial intelligence (AI). Since that date, shares of semiconductor stock <strong>Nvidia</strong> have soared an astronomical 550%, transforming the company to a multitrillion-dollar enterprise in the process. While semiconductor chips should remain an integral component of AI development, investors want to identify new growth opportunities beyond Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2022 年 11 月 30 日，ChatGPT 的推出代表了引發人工智能（AI）革命的主要催化劑之一。自那時以來，半導體股票 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的股價飆升了驚人的 550%，使該公司轉變為一家萬億美元企業。雖然半導體芯片仍應是 AI 發展的重要組成部分，但投資者希望識別超越 Nvidia 的新增長機會。</p>
</div><p><strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 3.68%) is another company that looks well-positioned to dominate the AI chip arena over the next decade. Its growth prospects and valuation trends support the case for why Taiwan Semi is my top choice in the chip space right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>台積電</strong>（TSM 3.68%）是另一家在未來十年內有望主導 AI 芯片領域的公司。其增長前景和估值趨勢支持了台積電為何是我目前在芯片領域的首選。</p>
</div><h2>Taiwan Semi is the engine powering the chip boom</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電是推動芯片繁榮的引擎</h2>
</div><p>Chances are you're familiar with names like Nvidia, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and <strong>Broadcom</strong> when it comes to advanced chipsets and data center infrastructure used for building AI applications. What you may not be so familiar with, however, is the role Taiwan Semi plays in the background.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能對 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>超微半導體</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong> 等名字並不陌生，這些公司在構建 AI 應用所需的先進芯片和數據中心基礎設施方面發揮着重要作用。然而，你可能不太熟悉的是台積電在背後的角色。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, OpenAI, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Qualcomm</strong>, and many others rely on the fabrication processes of TSMC to help manufacture their chips and integrated systems products. In other words, Taiwan Semi brings the engineering prowess from AI's biggest players to life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia、AMD、博通、OpenAI、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>高通</strong> 等許多公司依賴台積電的製造工藝來幫助生產他們的芯片和集成系統產品。換句話説，台積電將 AI 最大參與者的工程實力轉化為現實。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY1MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816526%2Fgettyimages-1468266151.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's growth is just getting started</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台積電的增長才剛剛開始</h2>
</div><p>In 2024, TSMC generated $88.3 billion in sales and $6.81 in earnings per share. Per the consensus estimates below, Wall Street is expecting the company's top line to continue growing rapidly over the next couple of years while maintaining healthy profitability too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年，台積電的銷售額為 883 億美元，每股收益為 6.81 美元。根據以下共識預期，華爾街預計該公司的營收將在未來幾年繼續快速增長，同時保持健康的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>AI in the semiconductor market is expected reach a market size of $233 billion by 2034, according to Precedence Research. Considering that TSMC already holds over 60% of the foundry market, combined with its long roster of industry-leading chip designers as customers and the rise of custom silicon chipsets, Taiwan Semi is in a great position to achieve or even surpass the financial estimates illustrated above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Precedence Research，半導體市場中的 AI 預計到 2034 年將達到 2330 億美元的市場規模。考慮到台積電已經佔據了超過 60% 的代工市場，加上其長期以來的行業領先芯片設計師客户名單以及定製硅芯片的興起，台積電處於一個良好的位置，有望實現甚至超越上述財務預期。</p>
</div><h2>Monster growth at a bargain price point</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以合理的價格實現巨大的增長</h2>
</div><p>As of this writing, Taiwan Semi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 21. This is in line with its 10-year average multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，台積電的市盈率（P/E）為 21。這與其 10 年的平均倍數相符。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>But TSMC's valuation has compressed significantly over the last few months with the primary cause being the ongoing uncertainty around new tariff and trade policies from the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但台積電的估值在過去幾個月顯著壓縮，主要原因是美國新關税和貿易政策的不確定性持續存在。</p>
</div><p>Although it's hard to predict when there will be any relief from ongoing trade negotiations, I tend to be in the camp that believes growth stocks are oversold right now. From a macro point of view, tariffs can change at any point, and the current policies aren't going to last forever. Investors are overstating the impact tariffs might have on TSMC's business in the short term while underestimating how bright the company's long-term opportunity is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然很難預測何時會緩解持續的貿易談判，但我傾向於認為，增長型股票目前被低估。從宏觀角度來看，關税隨時可能改變，而當前的政策不會永遠持續。投資者高估了關税對台積電短期業務的影響，同時低估了該公司長期機會的光明前景。</p>
</div><p>Unlike an investment in Nvidia, buying TSMC stock more or less serves as a long-run bet on overall chip demand and AI infrastructure spending. In other words, regardless of which company's chips or data center equipment are experiencing the most demand -- TSMC stands to benefit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與投資 Nvidia 不同，購買台積電股票在某種程度上更像是對整體芯片需求和 AI 基礎設施支出的長期押注。換句話説，無論哪家公司的芯片或數據中心設備需求最旺盛，台積電都將受益。</p>
</div><p>That puts the company in the middle of a budding, generational megatrend. Taiwan Semi's growth prospects are the best they've been in at least the last decade, and yet, the company's valuation is unchanged from its 10-year average and even represents a discount to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得該公司處於一個新興的、世代性的巨型趨勢中。台積電的增長前景是過去十年來最好的，但該公司的估值與其 10 年的平均水平沒有變化，甚至相較於 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數還存在折扣。</p>
</div><p>Put it all together, and you have a clear case for why Taiwan Semi is the top chip stock to own for the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，你會發現台積電是未來十年最值得擁有的芯片股票的明確理由。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be the Top-Performing Semiconductor Stock Over the Next 10 Years (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 台灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）在 AI 芯片市場中佔據重要地位。  
- 預計到 2034 年，半導體市場規模將達 2330 億美元。  
- TSMC 當前市盈率為 21，估值相對合理，長期增長潛力巨大。  

預測：這隻股票將成為未來十年表現最佳的半導體股票（提示：不是英偉達）