<p><strong>UPS</strong>（UPS 1.80%）股票的 6.8% 股息收益率和 <strong>惠而浦</strong>（WHR 2.87%）股票的 9.1% 股息收益率顯然對尋求被動收入的投資者具有吸引力。然而，世上沒有免費的午餐，它們的收益率反映了市場對其股息可持續性的一些懷疑。也就是説，哪隻股票更好，在購買股票之前你需要了解哪些風險？</p>
<h2>惠而浦股票分析（9.1% 股息收益率）</h2>
<p>惠而浦和 UPS 的股票今年都大幅下跌，因為它們都遭遇了交易環境的惡化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png"/></p>
<p>WHR 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>對於惠而浦來説，問題在於頑固的高利率和競爭對手在唐納德·特朗普總統連任背景下的行為。相對較高的利率抑制了房地產市場，從而影響了對家用電器的可自由支配需求（這通常比替換需求的利潤率更高）。因此，惠而浦第一季度的有機銷售同比僅增長 2.2%，其主要的北美家電業務的有機銷售持平。</p>
<p>惠而浦的銷售在 2024 年第四季度和 2025 年第一季度也很可能受到競爭對手行為的影響。首席執行官 Marc Bitzer 在最近的財報電話會議上表示：“亞洲家電生產商在第一季度和第四季度顯著增加了對美國的進口，基本上給美國行業帶來了壓力。這種市場干擾可能會持續到第二季度，因為競爭對手試圖清理他們的庫存。”</p>
<p>由於第一季度和第二季度受到此類行為的負面影響，30 年期抵押貸款利率仍高於 6.5%，以及關於關税的經濟不確定性，這對管理層維持全年指導的決定產生了一些懷疑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvaG9tZS1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UtcmgtYXBwbGlhbmNlcy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvaG9tZS1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UtcmgtYXBwbGlhbmNlcy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>惠而浦的全年指導暗示其股息是可持續的。例如，指導預計銷售額為 158 億美元，息税前利潤（EBIT）率為 6.8%，這意味着持續的 EBIT 為 10.7 億美元，自由現金流（FCF）將降至 5 億到 6 億美元。這足以覆蓋惠而浦去年支付的 3.84 億美元股息。</p>
<p>也就是説，如果惠而浦今年表現不佳，股息面臨重大風險。該公司有 48 億美元的長期債務和 18.5 億美元的債務將在今年到期，其中計劃償還 7 億美元並再融資 11 億到 12 億美元。任何自由現金流前景的顯著惡化可能會導致管理層削減股息以鞏固其資產負債表，尤其是在償還債務方面。</p>
<h2>UPS 股票分析（6.8% 股息收益率）</h2>
<p>繼續關注股息可持續性的問題，UPS 管理層對這一問題有三點明確看法：</p>
<ul>
<li>其長期目標是將 50% 的收益用於股息支付，並致力於維持和增加股息</li>
<li>當前每股 6.56 美元的股息幾乎無法覆蓋華爾街分析師對 UPS 2025 年收益 7.11 美元的共識，意味着 92% 的派息比率</li>
<li>管理層預計 2025 年自由現金流為 57 億美元，幾乎覆蓋 55 億美元的現金股息</li>
</ul>
<p>無論你是從收益（如管理層所做）還是自由現金流來看，UPS 支付股息的能力開始顯得緊張。同時，UPS 管理層正在努力應對到 2026 年下半年 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的配送量減少 50% 的挑戰，同時還要應對需求環境的惡化。這可能會影響 UPS 在短期內產生收益和現金流的能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI0OTk1NTU1Ni0xMjAxeDc3NC0xZTk3NTA4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI0OTk1NTU1Ni0xMjAxeDc3NC0xZTk3NTA4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在其主要的美國國內市場，首席執行官 Carol Tome 在財報電話會議上表示，2 月和 3 月的平均日交易量（ADV）下降 “超出我們的預期”。此外，UPS 對第二季度的指導預計美國國內的年同比 ADV 下降 9%。管理層拒絕更新其全年指導。</p>
<h2>UPS 還是惠而浦？</h2>
<p>總體來看，UPS 的股息看起來比惠而浦的更具可持續性，因此在這場較量中勝出。UPS 有 195 億美元的長期債務，相比之下，2025 年預計的 57 億美元自由現金流看起來是可控的。惠而浦的 48 億美元長期債務遠高於其預計的 2025 年自由現金流的 5 億到 6 億美元。</p>
<p>然而，兩者都有可能在年底之前削減股息。這並不意味着它們是沒有吸引力的股票；這只是意味着任何僅僅為了股息而購買的人需要為潛在的失望做好準備。</p>

惠而浦

聯合包裹

<p>UPS 的股息收益率為 6.8%，而惠而浦的收益率更高，達到 9.1%。這兩家公司都面臨影響其股息可持續性的挑戰。惠而浦的銷售增長受到高利率和競爭壓力的制約，這引發了人們對其在鉅額債務下維持股息能力的擔憂。相反，UPS 計劃將 50% 的收益用於分紅，但其派息比率接近 92%，而遞送量的下降影響了收益。總體而言，UPS 的股息似乎比惠而浦的更具可持續性，但兩者都可能在未來面臨削減的風險</p>

<p>The 6.8% dividend yield of <strong>UPS</strong>(UPS 1.80%) stock and the 9.1% dividend yield of <strong>Whirlpool</strong>(WHR 2.87%) stock are obviously attractive for passive income-seeking investors. However, there's no such thing as a free lunch, and their yields reflect some doubt in the marketplace around the sustainability of their dividends. That said, which stock is better, and what risks do you need to know about before buying the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>UPS</strong>（UPS 1.80%）股票的 6.8% 股息收益率和 <strong>惠而浦</strong>（WHR 2.87%）股票的 9.1% 股息收益率顯然對尋求被動收入的投資者具有吸引力。然而，世上沒有免費的午餐，它們的收益率反映了市場對其股息可持續性的一些懷疑。也就是説，哪隻股票更好，在購買股票之前你需要了解哪些風險？</p>
</div><h2>Whirlpool stock analysis (9.1% dividend yield)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>惠而浦股票分析（9.1% 股息收益率）</h2>
</div><p>Both Whirlpool's and UPS' shares are down heavily this year, as they've both suffered a deterioration in their trading conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦和 UPS 的股票今年都大幅下跌，因為它們都遭遇了交易環境的惡化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png"/></p>
<p>WHR data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WHR 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For Whirlpool, it comes down to a combination of stubbornly high interest rates and competitor behavior in light of President Donald Trump's reelection. Relatively high interest rates curtail the housing market and, in turn, discretionary demand (which tends to be higher-margin than replacement demand) for housing appliances. Consequently, Whirlpool's first-quarter organic sales rose just 2.2% year over year, with organic sales flat in its key major domestic appliance North America business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於惠而浦來説，問題在於頑固的高利率和競爭對手在唐納德·特朗普總統連任背景下的行為。相對較高的利率抑制了房地產市場，從而影響了對家用電器的可自由支配需求（這通常比替換需求的利潤率更高）。因此，惠而浦第一季度的有機銷售同比僅增長 2.2%，其主要的北美家電業務的有機銷售持平。</p>
</div><p>Whirlpool's sales were also highly likely affected by competitor behavior in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. CEO Marc Bitzer said on the recent earnings call: &#34;Asian appliance producers significantly increased imports into the U.S. ahead of the tariffs in the first quarter and fourth quarter, essentially loading the U.S. industry. This market disruption will likely continue into Q2 as competitors attempt to sell through their inventory.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦的銷售在 2024 年第四季度和 2025 年第一季度也很可能受到競爭對手行為的影響。首席執行官 Marc Bitzer 在最近的財報電話會議上表示：“亞洲家電生產商在第一季度和第四季度顯著增加了對美國的進口，基本上給美國行業帶來了壓力。這種市場干擾可能會持續到第二季度，因為競爭對手試圖清理他們的庫存。”</p>
</div><p>With the first and second quarters negatively affected by such actions, 30-year mortgage rates still above 6.5%, and general uncertainty in the economy concerning tariffs, this casts some doubt on management's decision to maintain its full-year guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於第一季度和第二季度受到此類行為的負面影響，30 年期抵押貸款利率仍高於 6.5%，以及關於關税的經濟不確定性，這對管理層維持全年指導的決定產生了一些懷疑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvaG9tZS1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UtcmgtYXBwbGlhbmNlcy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816622%2Fhome-goods-warehouse-rh-appliances-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Whirlpool's full-year guidance implies that its dividend is sustainable. For example, the guidance calls for sales of $15.8 billion with an ongoing earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin of 6.8%, implying an ongoing EBIT of $1.07 billion, dropping down to $500 million to $600 million in free cash flow (FCF). That's more than enough to cover the the $384 million in dividends that Whirlpool paid last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦的全年指導暗示其股息是可持續的。例如，指導預計銷售額為 158 億美元，息税前利潤（EBIT）率為 6.8%，這意味着持續的 EBIT 為 10.7 億美元，自由現金流（FCF）將降至 5 億到 6 億美元。這足以覆蓋惠而浦去年支付的 3.84 億美元股息。</p>
</div><p>That said, there's a significant risk to the dividend if Whirlpool falters this year. The company has $4.8 billion in long-term debt and $1.85 billion in debt maturing this year, of which it plans to pay down $700 million and refinance $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. Any significant deterioration in the FCF outlook may cause management to cut the dividend to shore up its balance sheet, not least in paying down debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，如果惠而浦今年表現不佳，股息面臨重大風險。該公司有 48 億美元的長期債務和 18.5 億美元的債務將在今年到期，其中計劃償還 7 億美元並再融資 11 億到 12 億美元。任何自由現金流前景的顯著惡化可能會導致管理層削減股息以鞏固其資產負債表，尤其是在償還債務方面。</p>
</div><h2>UPS stock analysis (6.8% dividend yield)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 股票分析（6.8% 股息收益率）</h2>
</div><p>Continuing the theme of looking at dividend sustainability, UPS management is clear on three things regarding the matter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>繼續關注股息可持續性的問題，UPS 管理層對這一問題有三點明確看法：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Its longstanding aim is to pay out 50% of its earnings in dividends, and it's committed to sustaining and growing the dividend</li>
<li>The current dividend of $6.56 per share is barely covered by the Wall Street analyst consensus for UPS earnings in 2025 of $7.11, implying a payout ratio of 92%</li>
<li>Management expects $5.7 billion in FCF in 2025, barely covering the $5.5 billion cash dividend</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>其長期目標是將 50% 的收益用於股息支付，並致力於維持和增加股息</li>
<li>當前每股 6.56 美元的股息幾乎無法覆蓋華爾街分析師對 UPS 2025 年收益 7.11 美元的共識，意味着 92% 的派息比率</li>
<li>管理層預計 2025 年自由現金流為 57 億美元，幾乎覆蓋 55 億美元的現金股息</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Whether you look at the payout ratio in terms of earnings (as management does) or FCF, UPS' ability to pay its dividend is beginning to look stretched. At the same time, UPS management is trying to finesse a 50% reduction in <strong>Amazon.com</strong> delivery volume by the second half of 2026, while dealing with a deteriorating demand environment. This could cloud UPS' ability to generate earnings and cash flow over the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論你是從收益（如管理層所做）還是自由現金流來看，UPS 支付股息的能力開始顯得緊張。同時，UPS 管理層正在努力應對到 2026 年下半年 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 的配送量減少 50% 的挑戰，同時還要應對需求環境的惡化。這可能會影響 UPS 在短期內產生收益和現金流的能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI0OTk1NTU1Ni0xMjAxeDc3NC0xZTk3NTA4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816622%2Fgettyimages-1249955556-1201x774-1e97508.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In its key U.S. domestic market, the decline in its average daily volume (ADV) in February and March was &#34;higher than we expected,&#34; according to CEO Carol Tome on the earnings call. Moreover, UPS guidance for the second quarter calls for a U.S. domestic year-over-year ADV decline of 9%. Management declined to update its full-year guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其主要的美國國內市場，首席執行官 Carol Tome 在財報電話會議上表示，2 月和 3 月的平均日交易量（ADV）下降 “超出我們的預期”。此外，UPS 對第二季度的指導預計美國國內的年同比 ADV 下降 9%。管理層拒絕更新其全年指導。</p>
</div><h2>UPS or Whirlpool?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 還是惠而浦？</h2>
</div><p>On balance, UPS' dividend looks more sustainable than Whirlpool's, so it wins the contest. UPS has $19.5 billion in long-term debt, which looks manageable compared to guidance for $5.7 billion in FCF in 2025. Whirlpool's $4.8 billion in long-term debt is far higher than its estimated FCF of $500 million to $600 million in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體來看，UPS 的股息看起來比惠而浦的更具可持續性，因此在這場較量中勝出。UPS 有 195 億美元的長期債務，相比之下，2025 年預計的 57 億美元自由現金流看起來是可控的。惠而浦的 48 億美元長期債務遠高於其預計的 2025 年自由現金流的 5 億到 6 億美元。</p>
</div><p>However, there's a good chance both could cut their dividends by the end of the year. That doesn't mean they are unattractive stocks; it just means anyone buying in for the dividend alone needs to prepare for potential disappointment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，兩者都有可能在年底之前削減股息。這並不意味着它們是沒有吸引力的股票；這只是意味着任何僅僅為了股息而購買的人需要為潛在的失望做好準備。</p>
</div>

更優的股息股票：惠而浦與聯合包裹對比