<p>上週對於投資者來説相當震驚，他們認為郵輪公司股票基本上都是同舟共濟。市場市值領頭羊 <strong>皇家加勒比郵輪</strong>（RCL 0.12%）在週二發佈了令人鼓舞的季度報告。較小的競爭對手 <strong>挪威郵輪</strong>（NCLH 1.09%）在一天後發佈最新財務結果時則走了另一條路。</p>
<p>皇家加勒比在今年前三個月的增長超出了預期，尤其是在底線方面。NCL 則出現了同比下降，尤其是在底線方面。這裏有很多內容需要分析，但郵輪度假的樂趣在於你只需在開始探索各個停靠港時打包一次。帶上冒險的心態——也許還需要一些暈船藥——我們將迎接波濤洶湧的海洋。</p>
<h2>有些水域比其他水域更波濤洶湧</h2>
<p>皇家加勒比在行業季節性淡季的第一季度收入增長了 7%。這是自 2021 年底在 COVID-19 強制停業後恢復運營以來最弱的營收增長，但這一表現符合預期。真正讓皇家加勒比起飛的是底線。調整後的每股收益飆升 57%，達到 2.71 美元，遠超華爾街專業人士預測的 2.53 美元。</p>
<p>挪威郵輪的情況則截然不同。NCL 的收入下降了 3%，部分原因是其一些大型船隻正在進行維護工作，導致它們暫時停航。調整後的每股收益暴跌 56%。外匯損失侵蝕了盈利能力，但即使沒有這一打擊，仍然會比去年下降。</p>
<p>比較並不止於此。皇家加勒比的淨收益——一個流行的行業指標，計算每可用乘客郵輪日的調整後毛利率——在本季度為 4.7%。這幾乎是 NCL 同期淨收益 1.2% 的四倍。載客率也有利於市值領頭羊，109% 對 101.5%。</p>
<p>最終結果是，皇家加勒比在業績方面繼續保持領先。過去四個季度，其淨利潤率達到 19.4%，是 NCL 的 9.1% 的兩倍多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3MjE3MDg5My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3MjE3MDg5My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>賺取市場溢價和上漲</h2>
<p>你會期望市場為皇家加勒比的持續優越基本面支付溢價。在這一點上，市場沒有讓人失望。NCL 的交易倍數無論是從歷史角度還是前瞻性角度來看都明顯較低。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>歷史市盈率</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 年市盈率</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026 年市盈率</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>來源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
<p>皇家加勒比在所有三個時間段的市盈率幾乎是 NCL 的兩倍。即使回到收入方面，皇家加勒比的企業價值是其歷史收入的 4.9 倍。這是 NCL 的 2.4 倍的兩倍多。考慮到前者歷史上優越的增長率和利潤率，這一溢價是完全合理的。如果歷史有任何指示，皇家加勒比實際上將繼續比 NCL 增長得更快——這也適用於其股票圖表的收益。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年初至今收益</td>
<td>持平</td>
<td>下跌 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>一年回報</td>
<td>上漲 67%</td>
<td>上漲 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三年回報</td>
<td>上漲 196%</td>
<td>下跌 13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年回報</td>
<td>上漲 464%</td>
<td>上漲 26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>來源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
<p>這種差異是顯著的，隨着航行時間的延長，財富的改變更加明顯。很難相信皇家加勒比在過去三年中幾乎增長了三倍，而競爭對手 NCL 的交易價格實際上下降了 13%。如果看五年，皇家加勒比是一個五倍收益者。NCL 的年化回報為 5%。</p>
<p>如果投資者能從中得到一個啓示，那就是為同一行業的優質運營商支付溢價是值得的。可以説挪威郵輪在這裏代表了一個引人注目的價值，但我並不認同。我持有 NCL 的股份，但在皇家加勒比的持倉更大。如果歷史是任何一種老師，這一差距應該會擴大。一旦你超越當前的關税和經濟擔憂，郵輪行業的長期前景是樂觀的。只要在登船前不要假設每個郵輪公司的股票都有相同的適航性。</p>

挪威郵輪

皇家加勒比郵輪

<p>皇家加勒比郵輪和挪威郵輪在季度業績上表現截然不同，皇家加勒比的收入增長了 7%，調整後收益上升了 57%，而挪威則經歷了 3% 的收入下降和 56% 的收益下滑。皇家加勒比的淨收益和入住率也優於挪威郵輪。市場對皇家加勒比的估值幾乎是挪威郵輪的兩倍，反映出其更強的基本面。在過去五年中，皇家加勒比的股票上漲了 464%，而挪威郵輪僅上漲了 26%。建議投資者在投資郵輪公司股票之前考慮業績差異</p>

<p>Last week was pretty jarring for investors figuring that cruise line stocks were essentially all in the same boat. Market cap leader <strong>Royal Caribbean</strong>(RCL 0.12%) put out an encouraging quarterly report on Tuesday. Smaller rival <strong>Norwegian Cruise Line</strong>(NCLH 1.09%) went the other way when it served up its latest financial results a day later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週對於投資者來説相當震驚，他們認為郵輪公司股票基本上都是同舟共濟。市場市值領頭羊 <strong>皇家加勒比郵輪</strong>（RCL 0.12%）在週二發佈了令人鼓舞的季度報告。較小的競爭對手 <strong>挪威郵輪</strong>（NCLH 1.09%）在一天後發佈最新財務結果時則走了另一條路。</p>
</div><p>Royal Caribbean posted better-than-expected growth through the first three months of this year, particularly on the bottom line. NCL saw year-over-year declines, particularly on the bottom line. There's a lot to unpack here, but the joy of a cruise getaway is that you only have to unpack once when you start a exploring the various ports of call. Bring a sense of adventure -- and perhaps some Dramamine -- as we head into the high and low seas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家加勒比在今年前三個月的增長超出了預期，尤其是在底線方面。NCL 則出現了同比下降，尤其是在底線方面。這裏有很多內容需要分析，但郵輪度假的樂趣在於你只需在開始探索各個停靠港時打包一次。帶上冒險的心態——也許還需要一些暈船藥——我們將迎接波濤洶湧的海洋。</p>
</div><h2>Some waters are choppier than others</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有些水域比其他水域更波濤洶湧</h2>
</div><p>Royal Caribbean saw its revenue rise 7% during the seasonally sleepy first quarter for the industry. This is its weakest top-line growth since resuming operations in late 2021 after the COVID-19-mandated shutdown, but the showing was in line with expectations. It was on the bottom line that Royal Caribbean really got going. Adjusted earnings soared 57% to $2.71 a share, well ahead of the $2.53 a share that Wall Street pros were modeling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家加勒比在行業季節性淡季的第一季度收入增長了 7%。這是自 2021 年底在 COVID-19 強制停業後恢復運營以來最弱的營收增長，但這一表現符合預期。真正讓皇家加勒比起飛的是底線。調整後的每股收益飆升 57%，達到 2.71 美元，遠超華爾街專業人士預測的 2.53 美元。</p>
</div><p>It was a different story for Norwegian Cruise Line. Revenue declined 3% at NCL, partly as a result of some maintenance work being done on some of its larger ships that put them briefly out of commission. Adjusted earnings plummeted 56%. Foreign exchange losses ate into profitability, but even without that hit, it would've still been a decline from a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威郵輪的情況則截然不同。NCL 的收入下降了 3%，部分原因是其一些大型船隻正在進行維護工作，導致它們暫時停航。調整後的每股收益暴跌 56%。外匯損失侵蝕了盈利能力，但即使沒有這一打擊，仍然會比去年下降。</p>
</div><p>The comparisons don't end there. Royal Caribbean's net yield -- a popular industry metric that calculates adjusted gross margin per available passenger cruise day -- was 4.7% during the quarter. This is almost quadruple NCL's net yield of 1.2% for the period. Load factor or occupancy rate also favors the market cap leader, 109% vs. 101.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比較並不止於此。皇家加勒比的淨收益——一個流行的行業指標，計算每可用乘客郵輪日的調整後毛利率——在本季度為 4.7%。這幾乎是 NCL 同期淨收益 1.2% 的四倍。載客率也有利於市值領頭羊，109% 對 101.5%。</p>
</div><p>The end result is that Royal Caribbean continues to be leader in terms of performance. Its net margin over the past four quarters stands at a robust 19.4%, more than double NCL at 9.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終結果是，皇家加勒比在業績方面繼續保持領先。過去四個季度，其淨利潤率達到 19.4%，是 NCL 的 9.1% 的兩倍多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3MjE3MDg5My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817182%2Fgettyimages-1472170893.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earning its market premium and upticks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>賺取市場溢價和上漲</h2>
</div><p>You would expect the market to pay a premium for Royal Caribbean's perpetually superior fundamentals. The market doesn't disappoint on that front. NCL definitely trades at much lower multiples on a trailing basis as well as a forward-looking basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你會期望市場為皇家加勒比的持續優越基本面支付溢價。在這一點上，市場沒有讓人失望。NCL 的交易倍數無論是從歷史角度還是前瞻性角度來看都明顯較低。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Royal Caribbean</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Trailing P/E multiple</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 P/E</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026 P/E</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>歷史市盈率</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 年市盈率</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026 年市盈率</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
</div><p>Royal Caribbean is trading at nearly double the earnings multiple of NCL in all three timelines. Even if you circle back to the top line, Royal Caribbean trades at an enterprise value that is 4.9 times its trailing revenue. This is more than double NCL with a 2.4 multiple. Given the former's historically superior growth rates and margins, it's a premium that is more than warranted. If history is any indicator, Royal Caribbean will actually continue to grow faster than NCL -- and that also goes for its stock chart gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家加勒比在所有三個時間段的市盈率幾乎是 NCL 的兩倍。即使回到收入方面，皇家加勒比的企業價值是其歷史收入的 4.9 倍。這是 NCL 的 2.4 倍的兩倍多。考慮到前者歷史上優越的增長率和利潤率，這一溢價是完全合理的。如果歷史有任何指示，皇家加勒比實際上將繼續比 NCL 增長得更快——這也適用於其股票圖表的收益。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Royal Caribbean</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year-to-date gains</td>
<td>Flat</td>
<td>Down 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>One-year returns</td>
<td>Up 67%</td>
<td>Up 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Three-year returns</td>
<td>Up 196%</td>
<td>Down 13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Five-year returns</td>
<td>Up 464%</td>
<td>Up 26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年初至今收益</td>
<td>持平</td>
<td>下跌 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>一年回報</td>
<td>上漲 67%</td>
<td>上漲 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三年回報</td>
<td>上漲 196%</td>
<td>下跌 13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年回報</td>
<td>上漲 464%</td>
<td>上漲 26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
</div><p>The disparity is dramatic, and it becomes more wealth-altering the further out you sail. It's hard to believe that Royal Caribbean has nearly tripled over the past three years while rival NCL is actually trading 13% lower. Go out to five years and Royal Caribbean is a five-bagger. NCL has generated an annualized return of 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種差異是顯著的，隨着航行時間的延長，財富的改變更加明顯。很難相信皇家加勒比在過去三年中幾乎增長了三倍，而競爭對手 NCL 的交易價格實際上下降了 13%。如果看五年，皇家加勒比是一個五倍收益者。NCL 的年化回報為 5%。</p>
</div><p>If there's a takeaway for investors here, it's that paying a premium is worth it for a superior operator in the same industry. There is a sound argument to be made that Norwegian Cruise Line represents a compelling value here, and I don't agree. I own a stake in NCL, but I have a larger position in Royal Caribbean. The gap should widen if history is any kind of teacher. The long-term prospects for the cruising industry are promising once you look past the current waves of tariffs and economic concerns. Just don't assume that every cruise line stock has the same seaworthiness before boarding the ship.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投資者能從中得到一個啓示，那就是為同一行業的優質運營商支付溢價是值得的。可以説挪威郵輪在這裏代表了一個引人注目的價值，但我並不認同。我持有 NCL 的股份，但在皇家加勒比的持倉更大。如果歷史是任何一種老師，這一差距應該會擴大。一旦你超越當前的關税和經濟擔憂，郵輪行業的長期前景是樂觀的。只要在登船前不要假設每個郵輪公司的股票都有相同的適航性。</p>
</div>

兩家郵輪公司股票的故事