<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png"/></p>
<p>布倫特原油價格本週持續承壓，全球供應擔憂加劇。週一價格跌至 58.7 美元，為 2021 年 2 月以來的最低水平，同時花旗、摩根士丹利和高盛等公司的分析師紛紛下調了原油價格預測。</p>
<h2>原油價格為何暴跌</h2>
<p>布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質油（WTI）價格暴跌，徘徊在多年來的最低水平。這一下降發生在供應與需求失衡的擔憂加劇之際。</p>
<p>國際能源署（IEA）和能源信息署（EIA）的分析師均下調了需求預估，原因是美國與其他國家之間的貿易戰加劇。</p>
<p>EIA 將其需求預估下調了 30 萬桶/天，這意味着今年的年增長將僅為 73 萬桶。同樣，EIA 和 OPEC 也都下調了今年的需求預估。</p>
<p>與此同時，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）下調了全球增長預估，現在預計今年的平均增長率為 2.8%，2026 年為 3%。這些預估低於之前的 3.3%。當全球經濟表現不佳時，石油需求通常會下降。</p>
<p>閲讀更多：布倫特原油價格為何可能很快跌破 50 美元</p>
<h2>供應擔憂促使花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利下調預測</h2>
<p>由於全球供應上升的擔憂，布倫特原油價格也有所下跌。</p>
<p>OPEC+ 成員國宣佈將日生產量增加超過 40 萬桶。這是該卡特爾連續第二次決定增加日產量。</p>
<p>如果伊朗與美國達成協議，預計將有更多供應來自伊朗。由於其經濟困境，該國在未來幾個月達成協議的可能性較大。</p>
<p>持續的供需失衡解釋了為何分析師下調了原油價格預測。巴克萊將其今年的預測下調了每桶 4 美元，至 66 美元，2026 年為 60 美元。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的分析師將其原油預測下調至 62.50 美元，預計原油市場的過剩將達到每日 110 萬桶，比之前的預估增加了 40 萬桶。</p>
<p>同樣，高盛的分析師預計今年原油價格將跌至 60 美元，低於之前的 63 美元預估。它還預計去年價格將跌至 52 美元。</p>
<p>有跡象表明，石油生產商正在調整預算。俄羅斯大部分收入來自能源。根據彭博社的報道，該國現在考慮在價格暴跌時改變其預算編制機制，將預算門檻從 60 美元降低至 50 美元。</p>
<h2>布倫特原油價格預測</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png"/></p>
<p>布倫特原油價格圖表</p>
<p>我們最後的原油預測指向更多下行，預計布倫特將在今年晚些時候跌破 50 美元。這個預測目前進展良好，布倫特已跌至 58.7 美元，為多年來的最低水平。</p>
<p>主要原因是布倫特形成了一個下降三角形模式，這是一種常見的看跌延續信號。它已跌破關鍵支撐位 70 美元，即該三角形的下邊界。</p>
<p>布倫特價格仍低於所有移動平均線，所有振盪器均指向下方。因此，價格可能會繼續下跌，下一個關注的目標是心理關口 50 美元。若跌破該水平，將指向進一步下行，可能達到 47 美元。</p>
<p>該目標是通過測量三角形最寬部分並從下邊界測量相同的距離得出的。若突破 70 美元的阻力位，將使看跌的原油預測失效。</p>
<p>該文章最初發表於 Invezz，標題為《花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利的布倫特原油價格預測》。</p>

摩根士丹利

高盛

花旗

<p>布倫特原油價格已降至 58.7 美元，為 2021 年 2 月以來的最低點，原因是對全球供需失衡的擔憂。花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利的分析師已下調了他們的預測，高盛預測價格將降至 60 美元，摩根士丹利則預測為 62.50 美元。國際能源署和歐佩克也在全球經濟放緩的背景下下調了需求預期。歐佩克 + 持續增加產量以及與伊朗的潛在交易進一步加劇了供應擔憂，導致市場預測價格可能跌破 50 美元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png"/></p>
<p>Brent crude oil price remained under pressure this week as concerns about global supply continued. It dropped to a low of $58.7 on Monday, its lowest level since February 2021 also as analysts from companies like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley slashed their oil price forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油價格本週持續承壓，全球供應擔憂加劇。週一價格跌至 58.7 美元，為 2021 年 2 月以來的最低水平，同時花旗、摩根士丹利和高盛等公司的分析師紛紛下調了原油價格預測。</p>
</div><h2>Why crude oil price is crashing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油價格為何暴跌</h2>
</div><p>Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have crashed and are hovering at their lowest level in years. This decline happened amid the rising concerns of a supply and demand imbalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質油（WTI）價格暴跌，徘徊在多年來的最低水平。這一下降發生在供應與需求失衡的擔憂加劇之際。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have all downgraded their demand estimates because of the rising trade war between the United States and other countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署（IEA）和能源信息署（EIA）的分析師均下調了需求預估，原因是美國與其他國家之間的貿易戰加劇。</p>
</div><p>The EIA reduced its demand estimate by 300k barrels of oil a day, meaning that its annual growth will continue by just 730k this year. Similarly, the EIA and OPEC have all lowered their demand estimates for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EIA 將其需求預估下調了 30 萬桶/天，這意味着今年的年增長將僅為 73 萬桶。同樣，EIA 和 OPEC 也都下調了今年的需求預估。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its global growth estimate, and now expects the average rate to be 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026. These estimates are lower than the previous guidance of 3.3%. Oil demand often fall when the global economy is not doing well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）下調了全球增長預估，現在預計今年的平均增長率為 2.8%，2026 年為 3%。這些預估低於之前的 3.3%。當全球經濟表現不佳時，石油需求通常會下降。</p>
</div><p>Read more: Here’s why the Brent crude oil price could crash below $50 soon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多：布倫特原油價格為何可能很快跌破 50 美元</p>
</div><h2>Supply concerns pushes Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley to slash forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供應擔憂促使花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利下調預測</h2>
</div><p>The Brent crude oil price has also dropped as concerns about the rising global supply remain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於全球供應上升的擔憂，布倫特原油價格也有所下跌。</p>
</div><p>OPEC+ member countries announced that they would increase the daily production by over 400k barrels a day. It was the second time in a row that the cartel has decided to increase the daily output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEC+ 成員國宣佈將日生產量增加超過 40 萬桶。這是該卡特爾連續第二次決定增加日產量。</p>
</div><p>More supply will likely come from Iran if it reaches a deal with the United States. With its economy struggling, there is a likelihood that the country will be open to a deal in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗與美國達成協議，預計將有更多供應來自伊朗。由於其經濟困境，該國在未來幾個月達成協議的可能性較大。</p>
</div><p>The ongoing supply and demand imbalance explains why analysts have slashed their crude oil price forecast. Barclays has slashed its forecast by $4 per barrel to $66 for this year and $60% for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持續的供需失衡解釋了為何分析師下調了原油價格預測。巴克萊將其今年的預測下調了每桶 4 美元，至 66 美元，2026 年為 60 美元。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their oil prediction to $62.50 as it expect the oil market glut to hit 1.1 million barrels a day, up by 400k from its previous estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的分析師將其原油預測下調至 62.50 美元，預計原油市場的過剩將達到每日 110 萬桶，比之前的預估增加了 40 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, analysts at Goldman Sachs see the crude oil price falling to $60 this year, down from the previous estimate of $63. It also sees the price falling to $52 last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，高盛的分析師預計今年原油價格將跌至 60 美元，低於之前的 63 美元預估。它還預計去年價格將跌至 52 美元。</p>
</div><p>There are signs that oil producers are adjusting their budgets. Russia, which makes most of its money from energy. According to Bloomberg <strong>,</strong> the country is now considering changing its budget-building mechanism as prices plunge. It will do that by reducing the threshold of its budget from $60 to $50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有跡象表明，石油生產商正在調整預算。俄羅斯大部分收入來自能源。根據彭博社的報道，該國現在考慮在價格暴跌時改變其預算編制機制，將預算門檻從 60 美元降低至 50 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Brent crude oil price forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>布倫特原油價格預測</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png"/></p>
<p>Brent crude oil price chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油價格圖表</p>
</div><p>Our last crude oil predictionpointed to more downside, with Brent falling to below $50 later this year. This forecast continues to work out well as Brent has dropped to $58.7, its lowest level in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們最後的原油預測指向更多下行，預計布倫特將在今年晚些時候跌破 50 美元。這個預測目前進展良好，布倫特已跌至 58.7 美元，為多年來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The main reason for this is that Brent has formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish continuation sign. It has dropped below the key support level at $70, the lower side of this triangle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要原因是布倫特形成了一個下降三角形模式，這是一種常見的看跌延續信號。它已跌破關鍵支撐位 70 美元，即該三角形的下邊界。</p>
</div><p>Brent remains below all moving averages, while all oscillators have pointed downwards. Therefore, the price will likely continue falling, with the next target to watch being the psychological point at $50. A move below that level will point to further downside, potentially to $47.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特價格仍低於所有移動平均線，所有振盪器均指向下方。因此，價格可能會繼續下跌，下一個關注的目標是心理關口 50 美元。若跌破該水平，將指向進一步下行，可能達到 47 美元。</p>
</div><p>This target is derived from measuring the widest part of the triangle and then measuring the same from the lower side. A move above the resistance at $70 will invalidate the bearish oil forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該目標是通過測量三角形最寬部分並從下邊界測量相同的距離得出的。若突破 70 美元的阻力位，將使看跌的原油預測失效。</p>
</div><p>The post Brent crude oil price forecast by Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該文章最初發表於 Invezz，標題為《花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利的布倫特原油價格預測》。</p>
</div>

花旗銀行、高盛集團和摩根士丹利對布倫特原油價格的預測