<p>自 2023 年初以來，華爾街上沒有比人工智能（AI）的發展更熱門的趨勢。賦予軟件和系統能夠獨立推理和行動的工具，甚至可能在沒有人類監督的情況下學習新工作和技能，這是一項具有顛覆性創新的重大市場機會。</p>
<p>雖然關於人工智能對經濟增長的貢獻估計各不相同，但普華永道（PwC）預計到 2030 年，其全球可尋址市場將達到 15.7 萬億美元。如果人工智能的實際影響接近這個數字，那麼將會有多個贏家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtcXVvdGUtYmVhci1idWxsLXRyYWRpbmctaW52ZXN0LXNob3J0LW9wdGlvbnMtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtcXVvdGUtYmVhci1idWxsLXRyYWRpbmctaW52ZXN0LXNob3J0LW9wdGlvbnMtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>到目前為止，沒有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.02%）更直接地受益於人工智能的崛起。其估值從 2022 年底的 3600 億美元攀升至不到兩年內超過 3 萬億美元。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）圖形處理單元（GPU）和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架構已成為希望在人工智能創新前沿的企業首選芯片。</p>
<h2>嚴峻的現實：Nvidia 可能處於泡沫中</h2>
<p>但 Nvidia 也有可能處於泡沫之中，這將使其他緊隨其後的有影響力的企業在估值方面超越它。</p>
<p>首先，過去三十多年沒有任何顛覆性創新、技術或趨勢在其早期擴張階段避免過泡沫破裂事件。這意味着投資者常常高估早期採用率和備受推崇的技術和創新的廣泛實用性。最終，這導致了高期望未能實現。如果人工智能泡沫形成並破裂，毫無疑問將對 Nvidia 的股票造成嚴重打擊。</p>
<p>在 AI-GPU 領域，競爭也在加劇——儘管來自一個不太可能的來源。儘管直接競爭對手正在加大對企業數據中心高性能芯片的生產，但最大的擔憂可能是 Nvidia 的許多頂級客户正在內部開發自己的芯片以用於他們的數據中心。</p>
<p>即使這些 AI-GPU 的計算潛力不及 Nvidia 的硬件，它們的價格也會顯著更低，並且不會出現積壓。Nvidia 失去未來訂單的可能性非常真實，或者至少失去其溢價定價能力。</p>
<p>我預計這些逆風將在未來三年內壓制 Nvidia 的股票，並使以下五家公司超越其市值。請注意，我排除了 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Apple</strong>，因為截至目前，它們的市值已經高於 Nvidia。</p>
<h2>1. 亞馬遜</h2>
<p>在未來三年內，最有可能超越 Nvidia 估值的公司是電子商務巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -0.48%）。我認為亞馬遜正處於一個可能使其在十年之交成為最大上市公司的軌道上。</p>
<p>雖然大多數人熟悉亞馬遜是因為其全球主導的在線市場，但其增長引擎主要與其雲基礎設施服務平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）相關。根據 Canalys 的估計，AWS 在 2024 年第四季度佔所有云基礎設施服務支出的三分之一。更重要的是，它的年同比增長率在高十幾個百分點，年銷售額達到 1170 億美元，且利潤率較高。</p>
<p>亞馬遜的其他高增長附屬業務也不甘示弱。作為首屈一指的社交媒體目的地之一，使其成為廣告領域的明星。即使在經濟環境嚴峻的情況下，廣告服務收入也在以近 20% 的恆定貨幣基礎上增長。當與 Prime 訂閲的卓越定價能力結合時，亞馬遜在未來三到五年內，甚至更久，具備產生超額現金流增長的工具。</p>
<h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
<p>谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -0.42%）（GOOG -0.34%）是第二隻在未來三年內有催化劑可以超越 Nvidia 的股票。</p>
<p>與亞馬遜類似，Alphabet 依靠其雲基礎設施服務平台（Google Cloud）來提升其增長潛力和運營現金流。Google Cloud 正在整合人工智能，為其客户提供生成式 AI 解決方案和大型語言模型工具。這個高利潤率的細分市場自 2023 年以來一直保持盈利，截止到 2025 年 3 月的季度，年銷售額約為 490 億美元。</p>
<p>但即使 Alphabet 依賴人工智能來推動其高利潤率的增長率，它也有一個基礎的現金牛可以在人工智能泡沫破裂時依靠。根據 GlobalStats 的數據，截至 2025 年 4 月，谷歌在全球互聯網搜索中幾乎佔據 90% 的市場份額，幾乎形成了壟斷。經濟增長週期的異常長，加上谷歌的近乎壟斷地位，使得這一細分市場成為 Alphabet 可持續的現金生成器。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvd29yay1mcm9tLWhvbWUtbGFwdG9wLWJ1c2luZXNzd29tYW4td2hlZWxjaGFpci1jb2ZmZWUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvd29yay1mcm9tLWhvbWUtbGFwdG9wLWJ1c2luZXNzd29tYW4td2hlZWxjaGFpci1jb2ZmZWUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>3. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p>如果説在未來三年內有哪家公司有邏輯超越 Nvidia 市值的可能性，那麼社交媒體巨頭 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META -1.84%）無疑符合這一條件。</p>
<p>Meta 是一家以廣告為驅動的企業——甚至比 Alphabet 更甚。儘管後者在截至 3 月的季度中 74% 的淨銷售額來自廣告，但 Meta 的社交媒體平台在第一季度中幾乎 98% 的 423 億美元總收入來自廣告。</p>
<p>沒有其他社交媒體公司能夠接近 Meta 在 2025 年 3 月平均吸引的 34.3 億日活躍用户。擁有包括 Facebook、WhatsApp、Instagram、Threads 和 Facebook Messenger 在內的超受歡迎平台，確保了企業願意支付溢價以將其信息展示給用户。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 還坐擁一筆令人羨慕的資本寶藏。到 3 月底，它的現金、現金等價物和可交易證券達到了 702 億美元，並且在 2025 年頭三個月中產生了超過 240 億美元的淨現金流。這筆現金使 Meta 能夠從容不迫地開發潛在的顛覆性創新，例如元宇宙。</p>
<h2>4. Visa</h2>
<p>儘管在這個名單上它是一個長線投資，但根據其當前的市值 “僅” 為 6660 億美元，支付服務商 <strong>Visa</strong>(V -0.08%) 具備了超越 Nvidia 的必要催化劑，前提是後者面臨的逆風。</p>
<p>Visa 持續的兩位數銷售和盈利增長率源於其在國內支付處理領域的主導地位，以及在海外市場潛在的數十年擴張空間。根據 eMarketer 收集的數據，Visa 在 2023 年處理了約 6.45 萬億美元的國內信用卡網絡購買量。這比市場份額排名第 2 至第 4 的公司總和多出近 2.4 萬億美元。</p>
<p>除了在美國產生穩定的商户費用外，跨境支付量也持續以兩位數的百分比增長。Visa 擁有資本和現金流，可以有機或通過收購進入增長更快（且長期缺乏銀行服務）的新興市場。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png"/></p>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的 A 類股票（BRK.A）在 60 年間實現了近 20% 的年化回報。BRK.A 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>5. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>
<p>最後但同樣重要的是，我完全相信穩健的烏龜會勝過兔子。儘管 Nvidia 的股票在 2023 年和 2024 年呈現拋物線增長，但沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 0.06%)(BRK.B 0.18%) 在六十年間實現了近 20% 的年化回報。如果伯克希爾繼續保持這一軌跡，到 2028 年中期，它可能成為一家價值 2 萬億美元的公司。</p>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋成功的原因之一是巴菲特偏愛週期性業務。無論是他收購的公司還是投資的公司，奧馬哈的先知都青睞與美國經濟波動相伴的企業。巴菲特正確地認識到，儘管衰退是不可避免的，但經濟擴張的持續時間遠遠超過衰退。因此，他將伯克希爾的投資組合和五十多家擁有的企業定位於利用美國經濟增長的這些漫長時期。</p>
<p>此外，沃倫·巴菲特喜歡將伯克希爾的現金投入到具有強大資本回報計劃的公司中。伯克希爾哈撒韋在未來一年內收取超過 50 億美元的股息收入應該沒有問題。</p>
<p>在《股息的力量：過去、現在和未來》中，哈特福德基金的研究人員與內德·戴維斯研究公司合作，顯示在過去 51 年（1973-2024 年）中，股息股票在回報方面遠超非支付股票：股息股票的年化回報為 9.2%，而非支付股票的年化回報為 4.31%。依賴股息股票表明伯克希爾的投資組合在長期內將表現優於其他投資。</p>

英偉達財報，一站看懂！

亞馬遜

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>這篇文章討論了五隻股票在未來三年內有可能超越英偉達估值的潛力，這一趨勢受到人工智能（AI）崛起的推動。英偉達從 AI 進步中受益匪淺，但對潛在泡沫的擔憂以及日益激烈的競爭可能會阻礙其增長。亞馬遜和谷歌被強調為強有力的競爭者，因為它們強大的雲服務和 AI 整合，使其在不斷發展的市場中具備了可觀的增長潛力</p>

<p>Since the start of 2023, there hasn't been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with tools that allow them to reason and act on their own, and potentially even learn new jobs and skillsets without the need for human oversight, is a game-changing innovation with a <em>big</em> addressable market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以來，華爾街上沒有比人工智能（AI）的發展更熱門的趨勢。賦予軟件和系統能夠獨立推理和行動的工具，甚至可能在沒有人類監督的情況下學習新工作和技能，這是一項具有顛覆性創新的重大市場機會。</p>
</div><p>While estimates of just how much AI can contribute to economic growth are all over the map, PwC pegged its global addressable market at a cool $15.7 trillion by 2030. If the actual impact of artificial intelligence is anywhere in the ballpark of this figure, there are going to be multiple winners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然關於人工智能對經濟增長的貢獻估計各不相同，但普華永道（PwC）預計到 2030 年，其全球可尋址市場將達到 15.7 萬億美元。如果人工智能的實際影響接近這個數字，那麼將會有多個贏家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtcXVvdGUtYmVhci1idWxsLXRyYWRpbmctaW52ZXN0LXNob3J0LW9wdGlvbnMtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817047%2Fstock-chart-quote-bear-bull-trading-invest-short-options-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Thus far, no company has more directly benefited from the rise of AI than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%). Its valuation climbed from $360 billion to end 2022 to well north of $3 trillion in less than two years. Nvidia's Hopper (H100) graphics processing unit (GPU) and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture have been the preferred chips used by businesses wanting to be on the leading edge of AI innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，沒有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.02%）更直接地受益於人工智能的崛起。其估值從 2022 年底的 3600 億美元攀升至不到兩年內超過 3 萬億美元。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）圖形處理單元（GPU）和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架構已成為希望在人工智能創新前沿的企業首選芯片。</p>
</div><h2>The grim reality: Nvidia might be in a bubble</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>嚴峻的現實：Nvidia 可能處於泡沫中</h2>
</div><p>But there's also a realistic chance Nvidia is in a bubble, which would allow other influential businesses nipping at its heels to leapfrog it in the valuation department.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Nvidia 也有可能處於泡沫之中，這將使其他緊隨其後的有影響力的企業在估值方面超越它。</p>
</div><p>To begin with, there hasn't been a game-changing innovation, technology, or trend for more than three decades that's avoided a bubble-bursting event in its early expansion phase. This is to say that investors frequently overestimate early adoption rates and the broad-based utility of highly touted technologies and innovations. Eventually, it leads to lofty expectations not being met. If an AI bubble were to form and burst, it would undoubtedly hit Nvidia stock hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，過去三十多年沒有任何顛覆性創新、技術或趨勢在其早期擴張階段避免過泡沫破裂事件。這意味着投資者常常高估早期採用率和備受推崇的技術和創新的廣泛實用性。最終，這導致了高期望未能實現。如果人工智能泡沫形成並破裂，毫無疑問將對 Nvidia 的股票造成嚴重打擊。</p>
</div><p>Competition is also mounting in the AI-GPU space -- albeit from an unlikely source. Though direct competitors are ramping up production of high-powered chips for enterprise data centers, the biggest worry might be that most of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are internally developing chips of their own to use in their data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 AI-GPU 領域，競爭也在加劇——儘管來自一個不太可能的來源。儘管直接競爭對手正在加大對企業數據中心高性能芯片的生產，但最大的擔憂可能是 Nvidia 的許多頂級客户正在內部開發自己的芯片以用於他們的數據中心。</p>
</div><p>Even if these AI-GPUs lack the compute potential of Nvidia's hardware, they'll be notably cheaper and not backlogged. There's a very real possibility of Nvidia losing out on future orders, or at the very least losing its premium pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使這些 AI-GPU 的計算潛力不及 Nvidia 的硬件，它們的價格也會顯著更低，並且不會出現積壓。Nvidia 失去未來訂單的可能性非常真實，或者至少失去其溢價定價能力。</p>
</div><p>I'd expect these headwinds to weigh down Nvidia stock over the coming three years and allow the following five companies to surpass its market cap. Note, I'm excluding <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong> since their market caps are already higher than Nvidia, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我預計這些逆風將在未來三年內壓制 Nvidia 的股票，並使以下五家公司超越其市值。請注意，我排除了 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Apple</strong>，因為截至目前，它們的市值已經高於 Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p>The likeliest of all companies to surpass Nvidia's valuation at some point over the next three years is e-commerce colossus <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.48%). I'd argue Amazon is on a trajectory that could make it the largest publicly traded company by the turn of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未來三年內，最有可能超越 Nvidia 估值的公司是電子商務巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -0.48%）。我認為亞馬遜正處於一個可能使其在十年之交成為最大上市公司的軌道上。</p>
</div><p>While most people are familiar with Amazon because of its globally dominant online marketplace, its growth engine is primarily tied to its cloud infrastructure service platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS accounted for a third of all cloud infrastructure service spend during the fourth quarter of 2024, based on estimates from Canalys. More importantly, it's growing by a high-teens percentage on a year-over-year basis, with $117 billion in high-margin, annual run-rate sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然大多數人熟悉亞馬遜是因為其全球主導的在線市場，但其增長引擎主要與其雲基礎設施服務平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）相關。根據 Canalys 的估計，AWS 在 2024 年第四季度佔所有云基礎設施服務支出的三分之一。更重要的是，它的年同比增長率在高十幾個百分點，年銷售額達到 1170 億美元，且利潤率較高。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's other high-growth ancillary segments aren't slouches, either. Being one of the premier social media destinations has made it an advertising rockstar. Even in a challenging economic environment, advertising services revenue is climbing by nearly 20% on a constant-currency basis. When coupled with the exceptional pricing power of Prime subscriptions, Amazon has the tools to generate outsized cash flow growth over the next three-to-five years, if not well beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜的其他高增長附屬業務也不甘示弱。作為首屈一指的社交媒體目的地之一，使其成為廣告領域的明星。即使在經濟環境嚴峻的情況下，廣告服務收入也在以近 20% 的恆定貨幣基礎上增長。當與 Prime 訂閲的卓越定價能力結合時，亞馬遜在未來三到五年內，甚至更久，具備產生超額現金流增長的工具。</p>
</div><h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
</div><p>Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.42%) (GOOG -0.34%) is a second stock that has the catalysts to leapfrog Nvidia in the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -0.42%）（GOOG -0.34%）是第二隻在未來三年內有催化劑可以超越 Nvidia 的股票。</p>
</div><p>Similar to Amazon, Alphabet is leaning on its cloud infrastructure service platform (Google Cloud) to ramp up its growth potential and operating cash flow. Google Cloud is incorporating artificial intelligence to give its clients access to generative AI solutions and large language model tools. This high-margin segment has been recurringly profitable for Alphabet since 2023, and is generating around $49 billion in annual run-rate sales, as of the March-ended quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與亞馬遜類似，Alphabet 依靠其雲基礎設施服務平台（Google Cloud）來提升其增長潛力和運營現金流。Google Cloud 正在整合人工智能，為其客户提供生成式 AI 解決方案和大型語言模型工具。這個高利潤率的細分市場自 2023 年以來一直保持盈利，截止到 2025 年 3 月的季度，年銷售額約為 490 億美元。</p>
</div><p>But even though Alphabet is relying on AI to supercharge its high-margin growth rate, it has a foundational cash cow to fall back on in the event the AI bubble bursts. Google operates as a near-monopoly in global internet search, with just shy of a 90% share, as of April 2025, per GlobalStats. Disproportionately long economic growth cycles, coupled with Google's near-monopoly status, makes this segment a sustainable cash generator for Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使 Alphabet 依賴人工智能來推動其高利潤率的增長率，它也有一個基礎的現金牛可以在人工智能泡沫破裂時依靠。根據 GlobalStats 的數據，截至 2025 年 4 月，谷歌在全球互聯網搜索中幾乎佔據 90% 的市場份額，幾乎形成了壟斷。經濟增長週期的異常長，加上谷歌的近乎壟斷地位，使得這一細分市場成為 Alphabet 可持續的現金生成器。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvd29yay1mcm9tLWhvbWUtbGFwdG9wLWJ1c2luZXNzd29tYW4td2hlZWxjaGFpci1jb2ZmZWUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817047%2Fwork-from-home-laptop-businesswoman-wheelchair-coffee-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>3. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p>If there's such a thing as a logical choice to surpass Nvidia's market cap in the coming three years, social media titan <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -1.84%) certainly fits the bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果説在未來三年內有哪家公司有邏輯超越 Nvidia 市值的可能性，那麼社交媒體巨頭 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META -1.84%）無疑符合這一條件。</p>
</div><p>Meta is an ad-driven business -- even more so than Alphabet. Whereas the latter generated 74% of its net sales in the March-ended quarter from advertising, Meta's social media destinations brought in just shy of 98% of its $42.3 billion in total revenue from ads in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 是一家以廣告為驅動的企業——甚至比 Alphabet 更甚。儘管後者在截至 3 月的季度中 74% 的淨銷售額來自廣告，但 Meta 的社交媒體平台在第一季度中幾乎 98% 的 423 億美元總收入來自廣告。</p>
</div><p>No other social media company is particularly close to attracting the 3.43 billion daily active people that Meta averaged in March 2025. Having ultra-popular platforms, including Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Threads, and Facebook Messenger ensures that businesses will pay a premium to get their message(s) in front of users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有其他社交媒體公司能夠接近 Meta 在 2025 年 3 月平均吸引的 34.3 億日活躍用户。擁有包括 Facebook、WhatsApp、Instagram、Threads 和 Facebook Messenger 在內的超受歡迎平台，確保了企業願意支付溢價以將其信息展示給用户。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms is also sitting on an enviable treasure chest of capital. It closed out March with $70.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, as well as generated north of $24 billion in net cash from operations in the first three months of 2025. This cash affords Meta the luxury of slow-stepping the development of potentially game-changing innovations, such as the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 還坐擁一筆令人羨慕的資本寶藏。到 3 月底，它的現金、現金等價物和可交易證券達到了 702 億美元，並且在 2025 年頭三個月中產生了超過 240 億美元的淨現金流。這筆現金使 Meta 能夠從容不迫地開發潛在的顛覆性創新，例如元宇宙。</p>
</div><h2>4. Visa</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. Visa</h2>
</div><p>Though it's the longshot on this list, based on its current market cap of &#34;just&#34; $666 billion, payment facilitator <strong>Visa</strong>(V -0.08%) has the necessary catalysts to leapfrog Nvidia, when combined with the latter's headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管在這個名單上它是一個長線投資，但根據其當前的市值 “僅” 為 6660 億美元，支付服務商 <strong>Visa</strong>(V -0.08%) 具備了超越 Nvidia 的必要催化劑，前提是後者面臨的逆風。</p>
</div><p>Visa's sustained double-digit sales and earnings growth rate is a function of its being the dominant player in payment processing domestically, as well as having a potentially multidecade expansion runway in overseas markets. According to data collected by eMarketer, Visa handled about $6.45 trillion in credit card network purchase volume domestically in 2023. This was nearly $2.4 trillion more than No.'s 2 through 4 in market share, <em>combined</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Visa 持續的兩位數銷售和盈利增長率源於其在國內支付處理領域的主導地位，以及在海外市場潛在的數十年擴張空間。根據 eMarketer 收集的數據，Visa 在 2023 年處理了約 6.45 萬億美元的國內信用卡網絡購買量。這比市場份額排名第 2 至第 4 的公司總和多出近 2.4 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Aside from generating consistent merchant fees in the U.S., cross-border payment volume has been continually growing by a double-digit percentage. Visa has the capital and cash flow to organically or acquisitively enter faster-growing (and chronically underbanked) emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了在美國產生穩定的商户費用外，跨境支付量也持續以兩位數的百分比增長。Visa 擁有資本和現金流，可以有機或通過收購進入增長更快（且長期缺乏銀行服務）的新興市場。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway's Class A stock (BRK.A) has delivered a nearly 20% annualized return spanning 60 years. BRK.A data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的 A 類股票（BRK.A）在 60 年間實現了近 20% 的年化回報。BRK.A 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>5. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>
</div><p>Last but certainly not least, I fully expect the steady tortoise to beat the hare. While Nvidia's stock went parabolic in 2023 and 2024, it's Warren Buffett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.06%) (BRK.B 0.18%) that's managed a nearly 20% annualized return over six decades. If Berkshire stuck to this trajectory, it could become a $2 trillion company by the midpoint of 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後但同樣重要的是，我完全相信穩健的烏龜會勝過兔子。儘管 Nvidia 的股票在 2023 年和 2024 年呈現拋物線增長，但沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 0.06%)(BRK.B 0.18%) 在六十年間實現了近 20% 的年化回報。如果伯克希爾繼續保持這一軌跡，到 2028 年中期，它可能成為一家價值 2 萬億美元的公司。</p>
</div><p>One of the reasons Berkshire Hathaway is such a success is Buffett favoriting cyclical businesses. Whether it's companies he's acquired or invested in, the Oracle of Omaha favors businesses that ebb-and-flow with the U.S. economy. Buffett rightly recognizes that, even though recessions are inevitable, economic expansions last significantly longer than downturns. Thus, he's positioned Berkshire's investment portfolio and five dozen owned businesses to take advantage of these lengthy periods of U.S. growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋成功的原因之一是巴菲特偏愛週期性業務。無論是他收購的公司還是投資的公司，奧馬哈的先知都青睞與美國經濟波動相伴的企業。巴菲特正確地認識到，儘管衰退是不可避免的，但經濟擴張的持續時間遠遠超過衰退。因此，他將伯克希爾的投資組合和五十多家擁有的企業定位於利用美國經濟增長的這些漫長時期。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Warren Buffett loves putting Berkshire's cash to work in companies with robust capital-return programs. Berkshire Hathaway should have no trouble collecting in excess of $5 billion in dividend income over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，沃倫·巴菲特喜歡將伯克希爾的現金投入到具有強大資本回報計劃的公司中。伯克希爾哈撒韋在未來一年內收取超過 50 億美元的股息收入應該沒有問題。</p>
</div><p>In <em>The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future</em>, the researchers at Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research, showed that dividend stocks crushed non-payers in the return column over the last 51 years (1973-2024): 9.2% (annualized) for dividend stocks vs. 4.31% (annualized) for non-payers. Relying on dividend stocks suggests Berkshire's investment portfolio is going to outperform over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《股息的力量：過去、現在和未來》中，哈特福德基金的研究人員與內德·戴維斯研究公司合作，顯示在過去 51 年（1973-2024 年）中，股息股票在回報方面遠超非支付股票：股息股票的年化回報為 9.2%，而非支付股票的年化回報為 4.31%。依賴股息股票表明伯克希爾的投資組合在長期內將表現優於其他投資。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 5 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Nvidia 3 Years From Now

- 2023 年，人工智能成為華爾街的熱門趨勢，市場潛力達 15.7 萬億美元。  
- Nvidia 因 AI 崛起市值暴漲，但面臨競爭和泡沫風險。  
- 預計 Amazon、Alphabet、Meta、Visa 和 Berkshire Hathaway 將超越 Nvidia 市值。

預測：5 只股票將在 3 年後價值超過人工智能（AI）股票英偉達