<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾於 5 月 7 日舉行的新聞發佈會基本符合市場預期，巧妙地傳達了貨幣政策的溝通。儘管美聯儲更新的聲明中包含了被視為略微鷹派的措辭，導致標準普爾 500 指數期貨初步下跌至 5600 點，但市場迅速反彈，因為鮑威爾的語氣被視為與之前的信息一致。期貨最終反彈至 5637 點，幾乎與指令發佈前的水平相同，表明投資者並未感到意外。鮑威爾成功地向市場傳達了美聯儲並不急於行動，重申政策 “處於良好狀態”，中央銀行可以耐心等待。然而，語氣和重點的微妙變化，特別是關於通脹風險和經濟不確定性的討論，使市場對 6 月降息的預期進一步推遲。</p><p>美聯儲 5 月政策聲明中最顯著的變化集中在經濟前景和風險評估上。儘管美聯儲維持經濟活動繼續以穩健的速度擴張的觀點，但新增了一項説明，指出淨出口的波動扭曲了近期數據。這是對第一季度因預期關税而導致進口大幅提前的暗示，暫時壓低了 GDP。鮑威爾強調，私人國內最終消費（PDFP）——一種排除政府、貿易和庫存的核心需求更清晰的衡量標準——在第一季度以 3% 的速度增長，與 2024 年的趨勢一致。</p><p>通脹的措辭保持不變，聲明重申通脹仍然 “略微偏高”。然而，美聯儲對風險的表述更加嚴謹，指出經濟前景的不確定性 “進一步增加”，同時失業率和通脹上升的風險也有所上升。這種雙重風險的表述似乎反映了在動盪的宏觀經濟條件下，特別是在貿易政策方面的謹慎態度。</p><p>一項操作性變化是刪除了關於資產負債表縮減的詳細措辭，這在 3 月的聲明中有所提及。新的聲明簡單地指出，美聯儲將繼續減少其國債和抵押貸款支持證券的持有量，表明之前宣佈的較慢的縮減計劃現已生效。對縮減速度持不同意見的克里斯托弗·沃勒支持 5 月的決定，表明內部意見趨於一致。</p><p>在新聞發佈會上，鮑威爾重申政策利率現在僅 “略微限制”——比去年秋季低 100 個基點——並且目前美聯儲處於觀望的良好位置。這一具體措辭至關重要：通過暗示利率不再高度限制，鮑威爾間接支持了下一步更可能是降息而非加息的觀點。</p><p>美聯儲主席還談到了軟數據與硬數據之間的差異。他承認，情緒指標和《褐皮書》顯示出企業和消費者的謹慎增加，一些公司推遲了投資和招聘決策。然而，鮑威爾強調，這些擔憂尚未在硬經濟數據中顯著體現。就業保持穩定，消費者支出持續，整體需求似乎具有韌性。他承認，如果軟數據中的陰霾持續，最終可能會在經濟結果中顯現出來，但這一時刻尚未到來。</p><p>關於通脹，鮑威爾描述了 “潛在通脹狀況” 相對穩定，住房和非住房服務的讀數適中。然而，他承認仍有許多未知因素，特別是關於新關税和全球供應鏈中斷可能帶來的進一步價格壓力。儘管如此，他明確表示美聯儲沒有緊迫性，樂於監測數據的演變。</p><p><strong>CME 美聯儲基金期貨 6 月降息預期：</strong></p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/03ed532816e187727d4f3b9386f35087?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1296" height="151" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/03ed532816e187727d4f3b9386f35087"/></figure><p>市場迅速解讀鮑威爾的語氣為中性。儘管美聯儲承認了更高的通脹風險，但鮑威爾對耐心和數據依賴的強調導致 6 月降息預期下降。CME 美聯儲觀察工具顯示，在新聞發佈會後，6 月和 7 月降息的概率均有所下降。</p><p>鮑威爾講話的一個關鍵主題是當前經濟數據的複雜性。他花了大量時間討論 PDFP 作為比 GDP 更準確的美國需求指標，因為 GDP 在第一季度因關税前進口激增而受到扭曲。鮑威爾暗示，第二季度可能會因淨出口的反轉而顯示出異常強勁的貢獻，進一步模糊增長信號。儘管存在這種噪音，鮑威爾表示美聯儲仍然關注消費和投資的持續趨勢。</p><p><strong>7 月 CME 美聯儲基金期貨降息預期：</strong></p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e04c9630ad36d7610b69a4f0209e3a39?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1298" height="172" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e04c9630ad36d7610b69a4f0209e3a39"/></figure><p>關於貿易，鮑威爾承認持續的關税談判和潛在新措施帶來的不確定性。儘管他沒有對美中談判的結果進行猜測，但他指出，4 月 2 日的初輪關税遠比預測者預期的要嚴厲。鮑威爾強調，這些發展可能會實質性改變美聯儲的前景，但此時尚未到可以判斷的時機。</p><p>鮑威爾還重申了美聯儲對財政政策的長期立場——這超出了他們的職責範圍。雖然承認聯邦債務路徑不可持續，但他沒有對税收延長或預算談判的影響發表評論，只是表示美聯儲將財政狀況納入其經濟模型中。</p><p>總之，鮑威爾傳達了一個穩健、審慎的信息，強調美聯儲希望在持續的宏觀經濟交叉潮流中保持耐心。儘管聲明在風險方面採取了稍微更為鷹派的語氣，但鮑威爾反覆堅持政策處於 “良好狀態”，這表明收緊政策的門檻仍然很高。同時，考慮到通脹仍然高企和經濟不確定性上升，放鬆政策的門檻也並不低。目前，美聯儲似乎滿意於觀察和等待——這一信息可能不會激勵市場，但反映了政策制定者面臨的經濟模糊性。</p>

<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近的新聞發佈會表明，貨幣政策將保持穩定，預計不會立即降息。儘管美聯儲的聲明中包含了一些鷹派語言，但市場迅速反彈，反映了投資者的信心。鮑威爾強調了美聯儲的耐心，並指出經濟前景的不確定性增加，特別是在通脹風險方面。他強調了私人國內最終消費作為核心需求指標的重要性，並承認當前經濟數據的複雜性。總體而言，鮑威爾的語氣暗示了一個謹慎但穩定的經濟環境，沒有迫切的立即行動的必要</p>

<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a press conference on May 7 that largely aligned with market expectations, skillfully threading the needle on monetary policy communication. While the Fed's updated statement included language viewed as marginally more hawkish—leading to an initial dip in S&amp;P 500 futures to the 5600 level—markets quickly rebounded as Powell's tone was seen as consistent with prior messaging. The futures eventually bounced back to 5637, nearly the same level as before the directive was released, suggesting investors saw little in the way of surprise. Powell succeeded in reassuring markets that the Fed is in no rush, reiterating that policy remains &#34;in a good place&#34; and that the central bank can afford to be patient. However, subtle shifts in tone and emphasis, particularly regarding inflation risks and economic uncertainty, pushed market expectations for a June rate cut further into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾於 5 月 7 日舉行的新聞發佈會基本符合市場預期，巧妙地傳達了貨幣政策的溝通。儘管美聯儲更新的聲明中包含了被視為略微鷹派的措辭，導致標準普爾 500 指數期貨初步下跌至 5600 點，但市場迅速反彈，因為鮑威爾的語氣被視為與之前的信息一致。期貨最終反彈至 5637 點，幾乎與指令發佈前的水平相同，表明投資者並未感到意外。鮑威爾成功地向市場傳達了美聯儲並不急於行動，重申政策 “處於良好狀態”，中央銀行可以耐心等待。然而，語氣和重點的微妙變化，特別是關於通脹風險和經濟不確定性的討論，使市場對 6 月降息的預期進一步推遲。</p>
</div><p>The most notable changes in the Fed's May policy statement were focused on the economic outlook and risk assessment. While the Fed maintained that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, it added a new qualifier noting that swings in net exports have distorted recent data. This was a nod to the sharp pull-forward in imports in Q1 ahead of anticipated tariffs, which temporarily depressed GDP. Powell emphasized that Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP)—a cleaner measure of core demand excluding government, trade, and inventories—grew at a 3% pace in Q1, in line with 2024 trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲 5 月政策聲明中最顯著的變化集中在經濟前景和風險評估上。儘管美聯儲維持經濟活動繼續以穩健的速度擴張的觀點，但新增了一項説明，指出淨出口的波動扭曲了近期數據。這是對第一季度因預期關税而導致進口大幅提前的暗示，暫時壓低了 GDP。鮑威爾強調，私人國內最終消費（PDFP）——一種排除政府、貿易和庫存的核心需求更清晰的衡量標準——在第一季度以 3% 的速度增長，與 2024 年的趨勢一致。</p>
</div><p>Inflation language remained unchanged, with the statement reiterating that inflation remains &#34;somewhat elevated&#34;. However, the Fed sharpened its risk language, stating that uncertainty around the economic outlook has &#34;increased further&#34; and that the risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. This dual-sided risk language appeared to reflect increased caution amid volatile macroeconomic conditions, particularly around trade policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹的措辭保持不變，聲明重申通脹仍然 “略微偏高”。然而，美聯儲對風險的表述更加嚴謹，指出經濟前景的不確定性 “進一步增加”，同時失業率和通脹上升的風險也有所上升。這種雙重風險的表述似乎反映了在動盪的宏觀經濟條件下，特別是在貿易政策方面的謹慎態度。</p>
</div><p>One operational change was the removal of detailed language on balance sheet tapering, which had been present in the March statement. The new statement simply states that the Fed will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and MBS, signaling that the slower runoff plan announced earlier is now in effect. Christopher Waller, who dissented in March over tapering pace, supported the May decision, suggesting increased internal alignment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一項操作性變化是刪除了關於資產負債表縮減的詳細措辭，這在 3 月的聲明中有所提及。新的聲明簡單地指出，美聯儲將繼續減少其國債和抵押貸款支持證券的持有量，表明之前宣佈的較慢的縮減計劃現已生效。對縮減速度持不同意見的克里斯托弗·沃勒支持 5 月的決定，表明內部意見趨於一致。</p>
</div><p>In his press conference, Powell reiterated that the policy rate is now only &#34;somewhat restrictive&#34;—100 basis points less so than last fall—and is currently well positioned for the Fed to wait and see. This specific language was key: by suggesting that rates are no longer highly restrictive, Powell indirectly supported the idea that the next move is more likely to be a cut, not a hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新聞發佈會上，鮑威爾重申政策利率現在僅 “略微限制”——比去年秋季低 100 個基點——並且目前美聯儲處於觀望的良好位置。這一具體措辭至關重要：通過暗示利率不再高度限制，鮑威爾間接支持了下一步更可能是降息而非加息的觀點。</p>
</div><p>The Fed Chair also addressed the divergence between soft and hard data. He acknowledged that sentiment indicators and the Beige Book show increased business and consumer caution, with some firms delaying investment and hiring decisions. However, Powell stressed that these concerns have yet to show up meaningfully in the hard economic data. Employment remains stable, consumer spending continues, and overall demand appears resilient. He admitted that if the gloom in soft data persists, it could eventually manifest in weaker economic outcomes—but that moment hasn’t arrived yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席還談到了軟數據與硬數據之間的差異。他承認，情緒指標和《褐皮書》顯示出企業和消費者的謹慎增加，一些公司推遲了投資和招聘決策。然而，鮑威爾強調，這些擔憂尚未在硬經濟數據中顯著體現。就業保持穩定，消費者支出持續，整體需求似乎具有韌性。他承認，如果軟數據中的陰霾持續，最終可能會在經濟結果中顯現出來，但這一時刻尚未到來。</p>
</div><p>On inflation, Powell described the &#34;underlying inflation picture&#34; as relatively stable, with modest readings in both housing and non-housing services. However, he admitted that there are still many unknowns, particularly around the potential for further price pressure from renewed tariffs and global supply chain disruptions. That said, he made clear the Fed sees no urgency to act and is comfortable monitoring the data as it evolves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於通脹，鮑威爾描述了 “潛在通脹狀況” 相對穩定，住房和非住房服務的讀數適中。然而，他承認仍有許多未知因素，特別是關於新關税和全球供應鏈中斷可能帶來的進一步價格壓力。儘管如此，他明確表示美聯儲沒有緊迫性，樂於監測數據的演變。</p>
</div><p><strong>CME Fed Fund Futures June Rate Cut Expectations:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>CME 美聯儲基金期貨 6 月降息預期：</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/e04065a6-afc8-4773-948a-605021923ace_image_adbefbe41746646597604.png" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/e04065a6-afc8-4773-948a-605021923ace_image_adbefbe41746646597604.png"/></p>
<p>Markets quickly interpreted Powell’s tone as neutral. Though the Fed acknowledged higher inflation risks, Powell’s emphasis on patience and data dependence led to a decrease in rate cut expectations for June. The CME FedWatch Tool showed declining odds for both June and July cuts immediately following the press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場迅速解讀鮑威爾的語氣為中性。儘管美聯儲承認了更高的通脹風險，但鮑威爾對耐心和數據依賴的強調導致 6 月降息預期下降。CME 美聯儲觀察工具顯示，在新聞發佈會後，6 月和 7 月降息的概率均有所下降。</p>
</div><p>A key theme in Powell's remarks was the complexity of current economic readings. He spent significant time discussing PDFP as a more accurate indicator of U.S. demand than GDP, which was distorted in Q1 by the surge in pre-tariff imports. Powell suggested that Q2 might show an unusually strong contribution from net exports as that trend reverses, further muddling the growth signal. Despite this noise, Powell said the Fed remains focused on sustained trends in consumption and investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾講話的一個關鍵主題是當前經濟數據的複雜性。他花了大量時間討論 PDFP 作為比 GDP 更準確的美國需求指標，因為 GDP 在第一季度因關税前進口激增而受到扭曲。鮑威爾暗示，第二季度可能會因淨出口的反轉而顯示出異常強勁的貢獻，進一步模糊增長信號。儘管存在這種噪音，鮑威爾表示美聯儲仍然關注消費和投資的持續趨勢。</p>
</div><p><strong>July CME Fed Fund Futures Rate Cut Expectations:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>7 月 CME 美聯儲基金期貨降息預期：</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/692024ef-15b4-4ab1-9515-8378b021a380_image_1cff1c6a1746646688161.png" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/692024ef-15b4-4ab1-9515-8378b021a380_image_1cff1c6a1746646688161.png"/></p>
<p>On trade, Powell acknowledged the uncertainty posed by ongoing tariff negotiations and potential new measures. While he refrained from speculating on the outcome of U.S.-China talks, he noted the initial tariff round on April 2 was far more severe than forecasters had expected. Powell emphasized that these developments could materially alter the Fed’s outlook, but at this point it is simply too soon to tell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於貿易，鮑威爾承認持續的關税談判和潛在新措施帶來的不確定性。儘管他沒有對美中談判的結果進行猜測，但他指出，4 月 2 日的初輪關税遠比預測者預期的要嚴厲。鮑威爾強調，這些發展可能會實質性改變美聯儲的前景，但此時尚未到可以判斷的時機。</p>
</div><p>Powell also reiterated the Fed’s longstanding position on fiscal policy—that it’s outside their mandate. While acknowledging that the federal debt path is unsustainable, he refrained from commenting on the implications of tax extensions or budget negotiations, other than to say the Fed incorporates fiscal conditions into its economic models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾還重申了美聯儲對財政政策的長期立場——這超出了他們的職責範圍。雖然承認聯邦債務路徑不可持續，但他沒有對税收延長或預算談判的影響發表評論，只是表示美聯儲將財政狀況納入其經濟模型中。</p>
</div><p>In sum, Powell delivered a steady, measured message that reinforced the Fed's desire to remain patient amid ongoing macroeconomic crosscurrents. While the statement adopted a slightly more hawkish tone on risk, Powell’s repeated insistence that policy is in a &#34;good place&#34; suggested the bar for tightening remains high. At the same time, with inflation still elevated and economic uncertainty rising, the bar for easing isn’t low either. As of now, the Fed appears content to watch and wait—a message that may not excite markets but reflects the economic ambiguity facing policymakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，鮑威爾傳達了一個穩健、審慎的信息，強調美聯儲希望在持續的宏觀經濟交叉潮流中保持耐心。儘管聲明在風險方面採取了稍微更為鷹派的語氣，但鮑威爾反覆堅持政策處於 “良好狀態”，這表明收緊政策的門檻仍然很高。同時，考慮到通脹仍然高企和經濟不確定性上升，放鬆政策的門檻也並不低。目前，美聯儲似乎滿意於觀察和等待——這一信息可能不會激勵市場，但反映了政策制定者面臨的經濟模糊性。</p>
</div>

Powell Plays It Cool: Rates Steady, Markets Whipsaw, Patience Prevails

- 美聯儲主席鮑威爾在 5 月 7 日的新聞發佈會上重申政策穩定。  
- 儘管聲明略顯鷹派，市場反應迅速回升，顯示投資者預期未變。  
- 鮑威爾強調經濟不急於行動，關注數據變化與通脹風險。

鮑威爾保持冷靜：利率維持不變，市場劇烈波動，耐心佔據上風