<p>當 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -1.14%）最近公佈其 2023 財年第二季度業績時，強調了公司所看到的積極因素和麪臨的挑戰。截至目前，蘋果的股價今年下跌約 20%，已失去全球最大公司的地位，轉而被 <strong>微軟</strong> 取代。</p>
<p>讓我們來看看蘋果的積極因素是否超過風險，或者投資者是否應該轉向更好的投資機會。</p>
<h2><strong>法律和關税風險</strong></h2>
<p>雖然蘋果的核心業務是硬件，但其高利潤的服務部門在過去幾年中一直是最大的增長驅動力，因為 iPhone 的銷售總體上趨於平穩。服務部門通過多種方式產生收入，包括其應用商店、雲存儲、Apple TV、Apple Pay 等訂閲服務，以及與 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 旗下的谷歌在搜索方面的收入分成協議。</p>
<p>服務收入再次引領蘋果，增長 12% 至 249.7 億美元，但未能達到 <strong>LSEG</strong> 彙編的分析師共識的 252.8 億美元。同時，關於法律環境如何影響蘋果的服務業務的擔憂日益加劇。</p>
<p>在蘋果的財報電話會議上，一位分析師提到了 Epic Games 最近對公司的禁令，以及谷歌反壟斷訴訟的潛在影響。關於 Epic 案件，一名法官裁定蘋果故意違反法院裁決，並繼續幹擾競爭。該公司可能面臨刑事藐視法庭的指控。</p>
<p>然而，最大的懸念是與谷歌的獨家搜索協議會發生什麼。蘋果從該協議中每年獲得超過 200 億美元的收入，這完全是利潤。這佔其運營收入的 15% 以上。此案對蘋果的影響重大，今年早些時候蘋果在補救階段被拒絕參與有限角色。</p>
<p>與此同時，關税問題成為焦點。公司表示，關税對其 3 月份季度的業績影響有限。然而，蘋果估計如果沒有進一步變化，關税將在 6 月份季度增加其成本 9 億美元。不過，它補充説，某些獨特因素使 6 月份季度受益。據報道，消費者在 4 月初趕往蘋果商店購買 iPhone 和其他蘋果產品，以避開關税，公司也提前囤積了庫存。因此，如果一切保持不變，6 月份季度之後的影響可能會更糟。</p>
<p>然而，蘋果指出，在 6 月份季度，絕大多數在美國銷售的 iPhone 將標註印度為原產國，而其餘產品大多數將來自越南。它還指出，其他國家銷售的產品主要來源於中國。</p>
<p>與此同時，中國仍然是蘋果的一個弱點，銷售額下降了 2%。不過，這比最近幾個季度有所改善，包括 12 月份季度時中國銷售下降了 11%。</p>
<p>總體而言，蘋果交出了一份不錯的季度業績。收入增長 5% 至 954 億美元，每股收益（EPS）增長 8% 至 1.65 美元。這超過了分析師對每股收益 1.60 美元和銷售額 945.8 億美元的預期，數據由 <strong>LSEG</strong> 彙編。</p>
<p>產品部門銷售增長近 3%，主要受 iPad 和 Mac 銷售強勁推動。iPad 銷售增長 15% 至 64 億美元，得益於新款 iPad Air 的銷售。Mac 銷售同比增長 7% 至 79 億美元，受益於蘋果筆記本電腦系列的新更新。可穿戴設備銷售下降 5% 至 75 億美元，因去年同期推出的 Apple Vision Pro 和 Watch Ultra 2 造成了較為嚴峻的對比。</p>
<p>至關重要的 iPhone 銷售 meanwhile，增長 2% 至 468 億美元。公司表示，iPhone 的升級用户同比增長了兩位數。它補充説，iPhone 是美國、城市中國、英國、德國、澳大利亞和日本的暢銷機型。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2><strong>風險與回報</strong></h2>
<p>蘋果繼續交出穩健的整體業績，主要得益於其高利潤的服務部門。同時，iPhone 和其他設備的銷售保持穩定。然而，公司確實面臨一些日益增加的風險。</p>
<p>雖然關税在 6 月份季度的影響適中，但其影響可能在此後加劇。然而，公司已將製造轉移出中國，並將尋求更多從美國採購芯片。它還計劃在未來四年內在美國投資 5000 億美元，包括在德克薩斯州開設新的先進服務器製造設施。</p>
<p>更大的風險是其盈利豐厚的谷歌搜索收入分成協議會發生什麼。雖然所有這些收入不太可能完全消失，但如果其中一部分確實消失，將對公司的收益造成重大打擊。</p>
<p>根據 2025 財年分析師的預估，該股票的前瞻市盈率（P/E）約為 28。對於一家收入和每股收益增長温和的公司而言，這一倍數相對較高。</p>
<p>再加上蘋果可能會看到其運營收入的顯著部分消失的風險，我認為即使在今年回調之後，風險也超過了回報。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果最近的 2023 財年第二季度財報顯示，收入增長 5%，達到 954 億美元，每股收益為 1.65 美元，超出分析師預期。然而，股票今年下跌 20%，失去了全球最大公司的稱號，轉而被微軟取代。主要風險包括影響其服務部門的法律挑戰和潛在的關税影響，這可能導致成本增加 9 億美元。儘管面臨這些挑戰，蘋果在未來四年內將在美國投資 5000 億美元，並將製造轉移出中國，表明其在當前不確定性中仍然專注於長期增長</p>

<p>When <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.14%) recently reported its fiscal second-quarter results, it highlighted both the positives the company is seeing and the challenges it is facing. With the stock down around 20% this year, as of this writing, Apple has lost its mantle as the world's largest company to rival <strong>Microsoft</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -1.14%）最近公佈其 2023 財年第二季度業績時，強調了公司所看到的積極因素和麪臨的挑戰。截至目前，蘋果的股價今年下跌約 20%，已失去全球最大公司的地位，轉而被 <strong>微軟</strong> 取代。</p>
</div><p>Let's examine if the positives for Apple outweigh the risks, or if investors should move on to better ideas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們來看看蘋果的積極因素是否超過風險，或者投資者是否應該轉向更好的投資機會。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Legal and tariff risks</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>法律和關税風險</strong></h2>
</div><p>While at its core Apple is a hardware company, it is the company's high-margin services segment that has been its biggest growth driver over the past few years, as iPhone sales have generally flattened out over time. The services segment generates revenue in a variety of ways, including through its App Store, cloud storage, subscriptions like Apple TV, Apple Pay, and its revenue-share agreement with <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google for search.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然蘋果的核心業務是硬件，但其高利潤的服務部門在過去幾年中一直是最大的增長驅動力，因為 iPhone 的銷售總體上趨於平穩。服務部門通過多種方式產生收入，包括其應用商店、雲存儲、Apple TV、Apple Pay 等訂閲服務，以及與 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 旗下的谷歌在搜索方面的收入分成協議。</p>
</div><p>Services revenue once again led the way for Apple, rising 12% to $24.97 billion, but that fell short of the $25.28 billion analyst consensus, as compiled by <strong>LSEG</strong>. Meanwhile, there are mounting concerns about how the legal landscape could impact Apple's services business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務收入再次引領蘋果，增長 12% 至 249.7 億美元，但未能達到 <strong>LSEG</strong> 彙編的分析師共識的 252.8 億美元。同時，關於法律環境如何影響蘋果的服務業務的擔憂日益加劇。</p>
</div><p>On Apple's earnings call, an analyst brought up the recent injunction Epic Games won against the company, as well as the potential impact of Google's antitrust lawsuit. Regarding the Epic case, a judge ruled that Apple had willfully violated a court ruling and continued to interfere with competition. The company could face criminal contempt charges for its actions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在蘋果的財報電話會議上，一位分析師提到了 Epic Games 最近對公司的禁令，以及谷歌反壟斷訴訟的潛在影響。關於 Epic 案件，一名法官裁定蘋果故意違反法院裁決，並繼續幹擾競爭。該公司可能面臨刑事藐視法庭的指控。</p>
</div><p>The biggest overhang, however, is what happens concerning its exclusive search deal with Google. Apple is generating more than $20 billion a year in revenue from the deal, which is pure profit. That represents more than 15% of its operating income. The stakes in the case are high for Apple, and it was denied earlier this year from taking a limited role in the remedies phase of the proceedings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最大的懸念是與谷歌的獨家搜索協議會發生什麼。蘋果從該協議中每年獲得超過 200 億美元的收入，這完全是利潤。這佔其運營收入的 15% 以上。此案對蘋果的影響重大，今年早些時候蘋果在補救階段被拒絕參與有限角色。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs, meanwhile, were front and center. The company said tariffs had a limited impact on its results for its March quarter. However, Apple estimated that if there were no further changes that tariffs would increase its costs by $900 million in the June quarter. However, it added that certain unique factors benefited the June quarter. It has been reported that consumers were rushing to Apple stores to buy iPhones and other Apple products in early April ahead of the tariffs and that the company had been stockpiling inventory ahead of time. As such, the impact after the June quarter would likely be worse if everything remains the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，關税問題成為焦點。公司表示，關税對其 3 月份季度的業績影響有限。然而，蘋果估計如果沒有進一步變化，關税將在 6 月份季度增加其成本 9 億美元。不過，它補充説，某些獨特因素使 6 月份季度受益。據報道，消費者在 4 月初趕往蘋果商店購買 iPhone 和其他蘋果產品，以避開關税，公司也提前囤積了庫存。因此，如果一切保持不變，6 月份季度之後的影響可能會更糟。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple noted that for the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. in the June quarter India will be listed as their country of origin, while for the rest of its products, most will come from Vietnam. It noted that for products sold in other countries that their main source of origin will be China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，蘋果指出，在 6 月份季度，絕大多數在美國銷售的 iPhone 將標註印度為原產國，而其餘產品大多數將來自越南。它還指出，其他國家銷售的產品主要來源於中國。</p>
</div><p>China, meanwhile, continues to be an area of weakness for Apple, with sales in the country down 2%. However, that was an improvement from recent quarters, including the December quarter when sales fell 11% in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，中國仍然是蘋果的一個弱點，銷售額下降了 2%。不過，這比最近幾個季度有所改善，包括 12 月份季度時中國銷售下降了 11%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, though, Apple turned in a solid quarter. Revenue rose by 5% to $95.4 billion, while its earnings per share (EPS) climbed 8% to $1.65. That topped analyst expectations for EPS of $1.60 on sales of $94.58 billion, as compiled by LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，蘋果交出了一份不錯的季度業績。收入增長 5% 至 954 億美元，每股收益（EPS）增長 8% 至 1.65 美元。這超過了分析師對每股收益 1.60 美元和銷售額 945.8 億美元的預期，數據由 <strong>LSEG</strong> 彙編。</p>
</div><p>Product segment sales rose nearly 3%, driven by strong iPad and Mac sales. iPad sales climbed 15% to $6.4 billion, powered by sales of the new iPad Air. Mac sales increased 7% year over year to $7.9 billion, helped by new updates to Apple's laptop lineup. Wearable sales fell by 5% to $7.5 billion, as it faced a tough comparison to a year ago due to the launch of the Apple Vision Pro in the year-ago quarter as well as the Watch Ultra 2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>產品部門銷售增長近 3%，主要受 iPad 和 Mac 銷售強勁推動。iPad 銷售增長 15% 至 64 億美元，得益於新款 iPad Air 的銷售。Mac 銷售同比增長 7% 至 79 億美元，受益於蘋果筆記本電腦系列的新更新。可穿戴設備銷售下降 5% 至 75 億美元，因去年同期推出的 Apple Vision Pro 和 Watch Ultra 2 造成了較為嚴峻的對比。</p>
</div><p>All-important iPhone sales, meanwhile, rose 2% to $46.8 billion. The company said that iPhone upgraders grew double-digits year over year. It added that the iPhone was a top-selling model in the U.S., urban China, the U.K., Germany, Australia, and Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至關重要的 iPhone 銷售 meanwhile，增長 2% 至 468 億美元。公司表示，iPhone 的升級用户同比增長了兩位數。它補充説，iPhone 是美國、城市中國、英國、德國、澳大利亞和日本的暢銷機型。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817201%2Fgettyimages-1373109638.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Risk vs. reward</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>風險與回報</strong></h2>
</div><p>Apple continues to put up solid overall results, led by its high-margin services segment. Meanwhile, iPhone and other device sales remain steady. However, the company does face some increasing risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果繼續交出穩健的整體業績，主要得益於其高利潤的服務部門。同時，iPhone 和其他設備的銷售保持穩定。然而，公司確實面臨一些日益增加的風險。</p>
</div><p>While tariffs will have a moderate impact in the June quarter, their effect could intensify thereafter. However, the company has moved manufacturing away from China and will look to source more chips from the U.S. It also plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years in the U.S., including opening a new advanced server manufacturing facility in Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然關税在 6 月份季度的影響適中，但其影響可能在此後加劇。然而，公司已將製造轉移出中國，並將尋求更多從美國採購芯片。它還計劃在未來四年內在美國投資 5000 億美元，包括在德克薩斯州開設新的先進服務器製造設施。</p>
</div><p>The bigger risk is what happens to its lucrative Google-search revenue-sharing agreement. While all of this revenue is likely not going to go away, if a meaningful portion does, it will be a significant blow to the company's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更大的風險是其盈利豐厚的谷歌搜索收入分成協議會發生什麼。雖然所有這些收入不太可能完全消失，但如果其中一部分確實消失，將對公司的收益造成重大打擊。</p>
</div><p>The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 28 based on fiscal 2025 analyst estimates. That multiple is relatively high for a company with modest revenue and EPS growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 2025 財年分析師的預估，該股票的前瞻市盈率（P/E）約為 28。對於一家收入和每股收益增長温和的公司而言，這一倍數相對較高。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the risk that Apple could see a significant portion of its operating income disappear, and I think the risks outweigh the reward with the stock, even after its pullback this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上蘋果可能會看到其運營收入的顯著部分消失的風險，我認為即使在今年回調之後，風險也超過了回報。</p>
</div>

Apple Stock: Do the Risks Outweigh the Reward?

- 蘋果公司第二季度營收增長 5%，達 95.4 億美元，超出分析師預期。  
- 服務部門收入增長 12%，但未達分析師共識。  
- 法律風險和關税可能對未來業績產生負面影響。  

蘋果股票：風險是否大於回報？