<p>到目前為止，2025 年的股市真是一個有趣的年份。在某個時刻，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 曾下跌至 15%，而 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 則暴跌 21%。</p>
<p>儘管中國人工智能初創公司 DeepSeek 的消息和混合的經濟指標對今年的資本市場產生了一些影響，但我認為造成波動的最大因素（迄今為止！）是特朗普政府的新關税政策。儘管標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克已經從低點恢復，但這兩個指數在今年仍然呈現負回報，其中一些最大的滯後者是大型科技股。</p>
<p>在我寫這篇文章時，<strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 2.95%）在 2025 年已經損失了近 1 萬億美元的市值。確實，這樣的拋售表明投資者對曾經炙手可熱的半導體明星失去了信心。隨着其財年的第一季度財報定於 5 月 28 日發佈，現在是買入英偉達股票的好時機嗎？</p>
<p>繼續閲讀，瞭解歷史在本月晚些時候公司發佈第一季度報告後會發生什麼。</p>
<h2>歷史表明 5 月 28 日後英偉達股票會發生什麼？</h2>
<p>下圖展示了英偉達過去三年的股價走勢。紫色圓圈中間的字母&#34;E&#34;表示財報發佈。過去幾年的大部分時間裏，英偉達的股票在財報發佈後立即上漲。從高層次來看，這表明英偉達的股票可能會繼續其獲勝的勢頭。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>不幸的是，在假設英偉達股票會再次上漲之前，有一個主要的細節需要指出。英偉達在財報發佈後的顯著例外發生在 2 月份，當時公司發佈了 2024 財年第四季度和全年財務結果。自 2 月 26 日公司發佈財報以來，截至目前，股價已下跌了 13%。</p>
<h2>目前影響英偉達股票的因素很多</h2>
<p>儘管自公司上次發佈財報以來，英偉達股票的急劇下跌可能有些令人震驚，但有一些重要的細節需要討論。</p>
<p>財報本身並沒有問題。2 月份的主要事件是英偉達的新 Blackwell GPU 架構。在第四季度，Blackwell 的收入達到了 110 億美元，超出了管理層的內部預期。</p>
<p>更好的是，英偉達的管理層表示，隨着 Blackwell 的逐步擴大，公司在今年的毛利率將會改善。此外，管理層還宣傳了一系列後續 GPU 架構，包括 Blackwell Ultra 和 Rubin，我相信這將有助於英偉達在未來幾年保持強勁的增長前景。</p>
<p>在如此多的好消息圍繞英偉達的實際業務時，為什麼股票已經出售了幾個月呢？正如我上面提到的，關税的不確定性加上對中國市場的新出口管制（這是英偉達的重要收入來源）讓投資者對公司的增長感到擔憂。雖然我理解這些擔憂，但我認為它們被誇大了。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxOTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NTY1ODk4Mi05LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxOTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NTY1ODk4Mi05LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投資者在第一季度電話會議中應該關注什麼？</h2>
<p>作為投資者，我將密切關注推動 AI 基礎設施的長期趨勢如何影響公司相對於中國的短期阻力和關税環境的長期前景。</p>
<p>在過去幾周，投資者已經窺見了其他領先的 AI 企業以及它們如何應對持續的關税驅動的動盪。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 都已發佈 2025 年第一季度的財報。這些公司共同的一個特點是它們對 AI 基礎設施的集體關注。這些公司計劃在今年在數據中心建設上花費數千億美元。</p>
<p>在我看來，如果關税是一個長期關注或對業務至關重要的問題，那麼大型科技公司現在就不會在其 AI 路線圖上加倍下注。鑑於所有這些公司都是英偉達的客户，我認為這家芯片製造商仍處於強勢地位，並將消除投資者對長期增長的任何擔憂。因此，我認為英偉達的股票可能會超出預期，並再次吸引增長型投資者。</p>
<p>我認為英偉達現在是一個很好的買入機會，適合那些打算長期持有股票的增長型投資者。</p>

英偉達財報，一站看懂！

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票在 2025 年經歷了顯著的波動，因對新關税政策和出口管制影響其增長的擔憂，市值損失近 1 萬億美元。儘管預計在 5 月 28 日發佈強勁的財報，但歷史趨勢表明，英偉達的股票通常在財報發佈後會上漲。然而，最近的表現則喜憂參半，在上一次財報發佈後出現了顯著下跌。投資者應關注公司在人工智能基礎設施方面的長期前景，因為主要科技公司繼續在這一領域進行大量投資，這表明英偉達有潛在的復甦和增長機會</p>

<p>It's been a really interesting year in the stock market so far in 2025. At one point, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> had dropped as low as 15% while the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> cratered by 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，2025 年的股市真是一個有趣的年份。在某個時刻，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 曾下跌至 15%，而 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 則暴跌 21%。</p>
</div><p>While news of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) start-up DeepSeek and mixed economic indicators have made some impacts on the capital markets this year, I think the biggest contributors to the volatility (by far!) are the new tariff policies from the Trump administration. Although the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq have recovered from their low points, both indexes still feature negative returns on the year -- with some of the biggest laggards being megacap technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管中國人工智能初創公司 DeepSeek 的消息和混合的經濟指標對今年的資本市場產生了一些影響，但我認為造成波動的最大因素（迄今為止！）是特朗普政府的新關税政策。儘管標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克已經從低點恢復，但這兩個指數在今年仍然呈現負回報，其中一些最大的滯後者是大型科技股。</p>
</div><p>As I write this, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.95%) has lost nearly $1 trillion in market value so far in 2025. Indeed, such a sell-off would suggest that investors have soured on the formerly red-hot semiconductor darling. With its fiscal first-quarter earnings report scheduled for May 28, is now a good time to buy the dip in Nvidia stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我寫這篇文章時，<strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 2.95%）在 2025 年已經損失了近 1 萬億美元的市值。確實，這樣的拋售表明投資者對曾經炙手可熱的半導體明星失去了信心。隨着其財年的第一季度財報定於 5 月 28 日發佈，現在是買入英偉達股票的好時機嗎？</p>
</div><p>Read on to find out what history says should happen after the company publishes its first-quarter report later this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>繼續閲讀，瞭解歷史在本月晚些時候公司發佈第一季度報告後會發生什麼。</p>
</div><h2>What does history suggest will happen to Nvidia stock after May 28?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史表明 5 月 28 日後英偉達股票會發生什麼？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates Nvidia's share price movement over the last three years. The purple circles with the letter &#34;E&#34; in the center indicate earnings reports. For the majority of the last few years, Nvidia stock has climbed immediately following an earnings report. At a high level, this would suggest that Nvidia stock could be positioned to continue its winning streak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖展示了英偉達過去三年的股價走勢。紫色圓圈中間的字母&#34;E&#34;表示財報發佈。過去幾年的大部分時間裏，英偉達的股票在財報發佈後立即上漲。從高層次來看，這表明英偉達的股票可能會繼續其獲勝的勢頭。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, there's one major nuance to call out before assuming Nvidia stock will rise once again. The most notable exception to Nvidia's post-earnings jolts occurred back in February when the company reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2024 year. Since the company reported earnings on Feb. 26, shares have dropped by 13% as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，在假設英偉達股票會再次上漲之前，有一個主要的細節需要指出。英偉達在財報發佈後的顯著例外發生在 2 月份，當時公司發佈了 2024 財年第四季度和全年財務結果。自 2 月 26 日公司發佈財報以來，截至目前，股價已下跌了 13%。</p>
</div><h2>There are a lot of factors at play influencing Nvidia stock right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>目前影響英偉達股票的因素很多</h2>
</div><p>Although the precipitous drop-off in Nvidia stock since the company last reported earnings might be a little jarring, there are some important details to discuss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管自公司上次發佈財報以來，英偉達股票的急劇下跌可能有些令人震驚，但有一些重要的細節需要討論。</p>
</div><p>The earnings report itself was anything but a problem. The main event back in February was Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture. During the fourth quarter, Blackwell outperformed management's internal estimates by bringing in $11 billion in revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財報本身並沒有問題。2 月份的主要事件是英偉達的新 Blackwell GPU 架構。在第四季度，Blackwell 的收入達到了 110 億美元，超出了管理層的內部預期。</p>
</div><p>What's even better is that Nvidia's management said it believes the company's gross margin will improve throughout the year as the Blackwell ramp-up continues to scale. Moreover, management touted a line of successor GPU architectures including Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, which I'm confident should help Nvidia maintain robust growth prospects over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的是，英偉達的管理層表示，隨着 Blackwell 的逐步擴大，公司在今年的毛利率將會改善。此外，管理層還宣傳了一系列後續 GPU 架構，包括 Blackwell Ultra 和 Rubin，我相信這將有助於英偉達在未來幾年保持強勁的增長前景。</p>
</div><p>With so much good news surrounding Nvidia's actual business, why has the stock been selling off for months now? As I alluded to above, uncertainty around tariffs combined with new export controls around the Chinese market (an important source of revenue for Nvidia) have investors worried about the company's growth. While I understand these concerns, I think they are overblown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此多的好消息圍繞英偉達的實際業務時，為什麼股票已經出售了幾個月呢？正如我上面提到的，關税的不確定性加上對中國市場的新出口管制（這是英偉達的重要收入來源）讓投資者對公司的增長感到擔憂。雖然我理解這些擔憂，但我認為它們被誇大了。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxOTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NTY1ODk4Mi05LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817198%2Fgettyimages-1345658982-9.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What should investors look for during the Q1 call?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者在第一季度電話會議中應該關注什麼？</h2>
</div><p>As an investor, I will be listening closely to how the secular trends fueling AI infrastructure are impacting the company's long-run prospects relative to near-term headwinds in China and the tariff environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為投資者，我將密切關注推動 AI 基礎設施的長期趨勢如何影響公司相對於中國的短期阻力和關税環境的長期前景。</p>
</div><p>Over the last couple of weeks, investors have gotten a glimpse of other leading AI businesses and how they are navigating the ongoing tariff-driven turbulence. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> have all reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2025. One thing stitching these companies together is their collective focus on AI infrastructure. On a combined basis, these companies are planning on spending hundreds of billions of dollars this year on data center buildouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾周，投資者已經窺見了其他領先的 AI 企業以及它們如何應對持續的關税驅動的動盪。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 都已發佈 2025 年第一季度的財報。這些公司共同的一個特點是它們對 AI 基礎設施的集體關注。這些公司計劃在今年在數據中心建設上花費數千億美元。</p>
</div><p>To me, if tariffs were a longer-term concern or mission-critical issue for business then big tech companies would not be doubling down on their AI roadmaps right now. Given that all of these companies are Nvidia customers, I think the chipmaker remains in a position of strength and will extinguish any investor fears about long-term growth. As a result, I think Nvidia stock could beat expectations and begin to attract growth investors once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，如果關税是一個長期關注或對業務至關重要的問題，那麼大型科技公司現在就不會在其 AI 路線圖上加倍下注。鑑於所有這些公司都是英偉達的客户，我認為這家芯片製造商仍處於強勢地位，並將消除投資者對長期增長的任何擔憂。因此，我認為英偉達的股票可能會超出預期，並再次吸引增長型投資者。</p>
</div><p>I see Nvidia as a good buying opportunity right now for growth investors who intend to hold the stock for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為英偉達現在是一個很好的買入機會，適合那些打算長期持有股票的增長型投資者。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before May 28? Here's What History Says.

- 2025 年股市波動，S&P 500 和納斯達克分別下跌 15% 和 21%。  
- Nvidia 股價因關税政策和中國市場不確定性下跌，市值損失近$1 萬億。  
- 投資者關注 Nvidia 財報，預計長期增長前景仍然強勁。  

你是否應該在 5 月 28 日之前購買英偉達的股票？歷史經驗告訴我們什麼