<p>全球科技巨頭蘋果公司（Apple Inc.，AAPL）在智能手機和個人計算機市場長期佔據主導地位，但現在在中國面臨重大挑戰，這可能會在短期內影響其增長。正如預期的那樣，該公司開始着手解決這些問題，原因在於缺乏可摺疊智能手機的產品以及令人失望的人工智能能力。</p><p>儘管蘋果尚未正式確認推出可摺疊設備，但彭博社的報道表明，該公司即將推出其在中國的 Apple Intelligence 人工智能套件，此前自去年十月以來一直延遲。儘管這標誌着進展，但我對該股票持中立態度，因為我認為當前的估值合理反映了公司的基本面，提供的上行空間有限，安全邊際也不高。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/60962df05b329f72e94b1c52fc507ec4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="784" height="411" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/60962df05b329f72e94b1c52fc507ec4"/></figure><h2 id="897ymeopd"><strong>蘋果未能推出可摺疊智能手機影響銷售</strong></h2><p>我對蘋果持續增長的擔憂源於其在中國的近期表現不佳，而中國是該公司最重要的目標市場之一，去年財年的收入佔比達到 17%。最近，蘋果在中國的收入同比下降了 8%，在 2025 財年第二季度，中國收入下降超過 2%，這表明新財年面臨的挑戰仍在繼續。對蘋果在中國表現的深入研究顯示，未能在中國推出可摺疊智能手機使公司失去了市場份額。</p><p>根據 Canalys 的數據，蘋果在 2024 年的中國智能手機出貨量為 4290 萬部，同比下降了 17%。因此，該公司的市場份額降至 15%，落後於 Vivo 和華為。有趣的是，Vivo 和華為在 2024 年均報告了強勁的出貨增長（分別為 11% 和 37%），這表明蘋果的困境是孤立的。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/7ade7021f105e3a22a49ebacbc44839f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="863" height="578" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/7ade7021f105e3a22a49ebacbc44839f"/></figure><p>有趣的是，儘管 2024 年中國智能手機的總出貨量僅增長了 4%，但可摺疊智能手機的出貨量同比增長了 27%，這證實了支持這一細分市場的有利因素。華為在可摺疊智能手機市場的市場份額接近 50%，在 2024 年處於領先地位（2024 年五款最暢銷的可摺疊智能手機中有四款是華為的型號）。</p><p>儘管有關於可摺疊 iPhone 的傳聞，但蘋果尚未確認這些消息。只要公司未能滿足中國對可摺疊智能手機日益增長的需求，蘋果在可預見的未來不太可能扭轉市場份額的損失。</p><h2 id="yz28pmtoo"><strong>蘋果的人工智能進展緩慢，競爭加劇</strong></h2><p>另一個讓我最近對蘋果保持謹慎的因素是該公司在人工智能方面的進展乏善可陳。在中國，缺乏人工智能功能導致客户不滿。Canalys 進行的一項調查發現，中國消費者在全球三大智能手機市場（中國、美國和印度）中對人工智能的傾向最強。數據顯示，43% 的中國消費者對人工智能有很高的傾向，而美國僅為 15%。儘管蘋果的人工智能短缺可能不會損害其在美國的銷售，但在中國採用同樣的策略已經證明代價高昂。</p><p>令人鼓舞的是，蘋果正在逐步接近在中國推出 Apple Intelligence，預計將作為 iOS 18.6 版本的一部分推出。這家美國科技巨頭據報道正在與中國人工智能巨頭阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group Holding，BABA）和百度（Baidu, Inc.，BIDU）合作，為中國消費者帶來人工智能功能。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d4a366b39840fb7ffcd28d1fc1e0695e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="260" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d4a366b39840fb7ffcd28d1fc1e0695e"/></figure><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0eb47352da2f23e37d9d4c7a3e0a16dd?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="390" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0eb47352da2f23e37d9d4c7a3e0a16dd"/></figure><p>由於出於國家安全威脅的考慮，中國目前不允許將 ChatGPT 和 Gemini 集成到智能手機中。與國內人工智能領導者合作是蘋果在中國作為一家人工智能友好的智能手機制造商獲得市場認可的最佳途徑。三星在與百度合作推動 Galaxy AI 併為中國消費者帶來人工智能功能後，已經取得了成功。</p><p>儘管蘋果最近的進展標誌着朝着正確方向邁出了一步，但該公司尚未走出困境。Apple Intelligence 並未配備三星和華為推出的同樣強大的人工智能功能，因此公司還有很多追趕的工作要做。在高級圖像編輯、實時通話翻譯和人工智能驅動的搜索等關鍵功能上，三星顯然領先於蘋果。這種不利的競爭地位可能會阻止蘋果在推出人工智能功能後在中國的 iPhone 銷售出現反彈。</p><h2 id="lk5mywpf"><strong>深入分析蘋果的估值</strong></h2><p>從估值的角度來看，蘋果的前瞻市盈率為 27.63，而五年平均為 27.42，我認為蘋果的估值合理，留給投資者的安全邊際不足，因此在公司面臨中國這一關鍵市場的挑戰時，投資這家科技巨頭並不具吸引力。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ee9420690e9428d0689f5ffbe832f98c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="391" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ee9420690e9428d0689f5ffbe832f98c"/></figure><p>更不用説，美國與中國之間持續的貿易戰也將對蘋果產生負面影響。在報告第二季度財報後，該公司預計由於新宣佈的關税，成本將增加 9 億美元。蘋果是一家管理良好的企業，但目前似乎並不具備吸引力作為投資選擇。</p><h2 id="xk3rtjyc"><strong>蘋果是買入、賣出還是持有？</strong></h2><p>在華爾街，AAPL 股票的共識評級為適度買入，基於過去三個月的 17 個買入、8 個持有和 4 個賣出評級。AAPL 的平均目標價為 228.65 美元，意味着未來十二個月大約有 16% 的上行潛力。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0c83a26b175a19eb35d91bf056765458?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="765" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0c83a26b175a19eb35d91bf056765458"/></figure><p><strong>查看更多 AAPL 分析師評級</strong></p><p>儘管蘋果看起來很有吸引力，但許多分析師最近強調了該公司面臨的一些挑戰。例如，MoffettNathanson 的分析師幾個月前指出，由於人工智能進展乏力和民族主義上升，蘋果在中國的品牌價值已經下降。在消化了上週的第二季度財報後，Saxo Bank 也指出，蘋果需要進行重大創新才能重新奪回在中國失去的市場份額。</p><h2 id="lmk6buvtr"><strong>儘管有人工智能努力，蘋果在中國的困境依然持續</strong></h2><p>蘋果在中國這個關鍵市場面臨阻力，原因是可摺疊智能手機上市的延遲以及在人工智能方面的緩慢進展。儘管最近在人工智能方面採取的一些措施顯示出一定的希望，但蘋果在中國的市場份額在可預見的未來可能仍將承壓。考慮到這些風險，股票在當前水平上似乎被合理定價，因此我保持中立立場，儘管其股票回購的吸引力依然存在。</p><p>免責聲明與披露報告問題</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果 (AAPL) 努力恢復在中國市場的份額，因貿易戰加劇</p>

<p>Global tech giant Apple Inc. (AAPL), long dominant in the smartphone and personal computing markets, is now grappling with significant headwinds in China that will likely weigh on growth in the near term. As anticipated, the company is beginning to address these issues, driven by the absence of a foldable smartphone offering and underwhelming AI capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球科技巨頭蘋果公司（Apple Inc.，AAPL）在智能手機和個人計算機市場長期佔據主導地位，但現在在中國面臨重大挑戰，這可能會在短期內影響其增長。正如預期的那樣，該公司開始着手解決這些問題，原因在於缺乏可摺疊智能手機的產品以及令人失望的人工智能能力。</p>
</div><p>While Apple has not officially confirmed a foldable device, Bloomberg reports suggest it is close to rolling out its Apple Intelligence AI suite in China, following delays since last October. Though this marks progress, I remain neutral on the stock, as I believe the current valuation fairly reflects the company’s fundamentals, offering limited upside and little margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管蘋果尚未正式確認推出可摺疊設備，但彭博社的報道表明，該公司即將推出其在中國的 Apple Intelligence 人工智能套件，此前自去年十月以來一直延遲。儘管這標誌着進展，但我對該股票持中立態度，因為我認為當前的估值合理反映了公司的基本面，提供的上行空間有限，安全邊際也不高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-589.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-589.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Apple’s Failure to Launch a Foldable Smartphone is Hurting Sales</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>蘋果未能推出可摺疊智能手機影響銷售</strong></h2>
</div><p>My concerns regarding Apple’s continued growth stem from its poor recent performance in China, one of the company’s most important target markets, hauling in 17% of revenue in the previous financial year. Most recently, Apple’s China revenue fell 8% YoY, and in Q2 FY2025, China revenue declined over 2%, suggesting that struggles are continuing in the new financial year as well. A closer study of Apple’s performance in China reveals that the failure to launch a foldable smartphone in China has cost the company market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我對蘋果持續增長的擔憂源於其在中國的近期表現不佳，而中國是該公司最重要的目標市場之一，去年財年的收入佔比達到 17%。最近，蘋果在中國的收入同比下降了 8%，在 2025 財年第二季度，中國收入下降超過 2%，這表明新財年面臨的挑戰仍在繼續。對蘋果在中國表現的深入研究顯示，未能在中國推出可摺疊智能手機使公司失去了市場份額。</p>
</div><p>According to Canalys data, Apple’s China smartphone shipments were 42.9 million in 2024, a notable 17% YoY decline. As a result, the company’s market share fell to 15%, behind Vivo and Huawei. Interestingly, both Vivo and Huawei reported strong shipment growth in 2024 (11% and 37%, respectively), which reveals Apple’s struggles are isolated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Canalys 的數據，蘋果在 2024 年的中國智能手機出貨量為 4290 萬部，同比下降了 17%。因此，該公司的市場份額降至 15%，落後於 Vivo 和華為。有趣的是，Vivo 和華為在 2024 年均報告了強勁的出貨增長（分別為 11% 和 37%），這表明蘋果的困境是孤立的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-591.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-591.png"/></p>
<p>Interestingly, while total smartphone shipments in China grew just 4% in 2024, foldable smartphone shipments grew 27% YoY, confirming the tailwinds supporting this niche market segment. With a market share of almost 50% in the foldable smartphone segment, Huawei led the way in 2024 (four of the five best-selling foldable smartphones in 2024 were Huawei models).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，儘管 2024 年中國智能手機的總出貨量僅增長了 4%，但可摺疊智能手機的出貨量同比增長了 27%，這證實了支持這一細分市場的有利因素。華為在可摺疊智能手機市場的市場份額接近 50%，在 2024 年處於領先地位（2024 年五款最暢銷的可摺疊智能手機中有四款是華為的型號）。</p>
</div><p>Although there are rumors of a foldable iPhone, Apple has yet to confirm them. As long as the company fails to cater to the surging demand for foldable smartphones in China, Apple is unlikely to reverse market share losses in the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管有關於可摺疊 iPhone 的傳聞，但蘋果尚未確認這些消息。只要公司未能滿足中國對可摺疊智能手機日益增長的需求，蘋果在可預見的未來不太可能扭轉市場份額的損失。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Slow AI Progress for Apple as Competition Heats Up</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>蘋果的人工智能進展緩慢，競爭加劇</strong></h2>
</div><p>Another factor that has kept me cautious on Apple recently is the lackluster progress the company has made with AI. In China, the lack of AI features has led to dissatisfied customers. A survey conducted by Canalys found that Chinese consumers had the strongest AI inclination among the top three smartphone markets in the world (China, the U.S., and India). Data revealed that 43% of Chinese consumers have a high AI inclination, compared to just 15% in the U.S. Although Apple’s AI deficit may not harm U.S. sales, applying the same playbook to China has already proven to be costly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個讓我最近對蘋果保持謹慎的因素是該公司在人工智能方面的進展乏善可陳。在中國，缺乏人工智能功能導致客户不滿。Canalys 進行的一項調查發現，中國消費者在全球三大智能手機市場（中國、美國和印度）中對人工智能的傾向最強。數據顯示，43% 的中國消費者對人工智能有很高的傾向，而美國僅為 15%。儘管蘋果的人工智能短缺可能不會損害其在美國的銷售，但在中國採用同樣的策略已經證明代價高昂。</p>
</div><p>Encouragingly, Apple is inching closer to unveiling Apple Intelligence in China, which is expected to be rolled out as part of the iOS 18.6 release. The U.S. tech giant is reportedly partnering with Chinese AI giants Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) and Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) to bring AI features to Chinese consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人鼓舞的是，蘋果正在逐步接近在中國推出 Apple Intelligence，預計將作為 iOS 18.6 版本的一部分推出。這家美國科技巨頭據報道正在與中國人工智能巨頭阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group Holding，BABA）和百度（Baidu, Inc.，BIDU）合作，為中國消費者帶來人工智能功能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-593-1024x260.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-593-1024x260.png"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-594-1024x390.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-594-1024x390.png"/></p>
<p>China does not currently allow the integration of ChatGPT and Gemini into smartphones due to perceived national security threats. Partnering with domestic AI leaders is the best way for Apple to gain traction in China as an AI-friendly smartphone manufacturer. Samsung has already seen success with this strategy after partnering with Baidu to power Galaxy AI and bring AI features to Chinese consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於出於國家安全威脅的考慮，中國目前不允許將 ChatGPT 和 Gemini 集成到智能手機中。與國內人工智能領導者合作是蘋果在中國作為一家人工智能友好的智能手機制造商獲得市場認可的最佳途徑。三星在與百度合作推動 Galaxy AI 併為中國消費者帶來人工智能功能後，已經取得了成功。</p>
</div><p>Although Apple’s recent progress marks a step in the right direction, the company is not yet out of the woods. Apple Intelligence is not equipped with the same powerful AI features introduced by Samsung and Huawei, so the company has much catching up to do. In key functionalities such as advanced image editing, real-time call translation, and AI-powered searches, Samsung is clearly ahead of Apple. This disadvantaged competitive position may prevent Apple from registering a rebound in iPhone sales in China even after the rollout of AI features.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管蘋果最近的進展標誌着朝着正確方向邁出了一步，但該公司尚未走出困境。Apple Intelligence 並未配備三星和華為推出的同樣強大的人工智能功能，因此公司還有很多追趕的工作要做。在高級圖像編輯、實時通話翻譯和人工智能驅動的搜索等關鍵功能上，三星顯然領先於蘋果。這種不利的競爭地位可能會阻止蘋果在推出人工智能功能後在中國的 iPhone 銷售出現反彈。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Delving into Apple’s Valuation</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>深入分析蘋果的估值</strong></h2>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective, at a forward P/E of 27.63 compared to the five-year average of 27.42, I believe Apple is reasonably valued, leaving insufficient margin of safety to bet on the tech giant at a time when the company is facing challenges in China, one of its key markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從估值的角度來看，蘋果的前瞻市盈率為 27.63，而五年平均為 27.42，我認為蘋果的估值合理，留給投資者的安全邊際不足，因此在公司面臨中國這一關鍵市場的挑戰時，投資這家科技巨頭並不具吸引力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-592-1024x391.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-592-1024x391.png"/></p>
<p>Not to forget, the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China will also negatively impact Apple. After reporting Q2 earnings, the company projected a $900 million incremental cost increase due to newly announced tariffs. Apple is a well-managed business, but it does not seem to be attractive as an investment option today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更不用説，美國與中國之間持續的貿易戰也將對蘋果產生負面影響。在報告第二季度財報後，該公司預計由於新宣佈的關税，成本將增加 9 億美元。蘋果是一家管理良好的企業，但目前似乎並不具備吸引力作為投資選擇。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>蘋果是買入、賣出還是持有？</strong></h2>
</div><p>On Wall Street, AAPL stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buy, eight Hold, and four Sell ratings over the past three months. AAPL’s average price target of $228.65 implies approximately 16% upside potential over the next twelve months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在華爾街，AAPL 股票的共識評級為適度買入，基於過去三個月的 17 個買入、8 個持有和 4 個賣出評級。AAPL 的平均目標價為 228.65 美元，意味着未來十二個月大約有 16% 的上行潛力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-590-1024x765.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-590-1024x765.png"/></p>
<p><strong>See more AAPL analyst ratings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看更多 AAPL 分析師評級</strong></p>
</div><p>Although Apple seems attractive, many analysts have recently highlighted some of the challenges faced by the company. For instance, MoffettNathanson analysts pointed out a couple of months ago how Apple’s brand value has eroded in China amid lackluster AI progress and rising nationalism. After digesting Q2 earnings last week, Saxo Bank also noted that major innovations are required for Apple to regain lost market share in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管蘋果看起來很有吸引力，但許多分析師最近強調了該公司面臨的一些挑戰。例如，MoffettNathanson 的分析師幾個月前指出，由於人工智能進展乏力和民族主義上升，蘋果在中國的品牌價值已經下降。在消化了上週的第二季度財報後，Saxo Bank 也指出，蘋果需要進行重大創新才能重新奪回在中國失去的市場份額。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Apple’s China Troubles Persist Despite AI Efforts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>儘管有人工智能努力，蘋果在中國的困境依然持續</strong></h2>
</div><p>Apple is encountering headwinds in China, one of its critical markets, driven by delays in bringing a foldable smartphone to market and its slow progress in AI. While recent steps on the AI front show some promise, Apple’s market share in China will likely stay under pressure for the foreseeable future. Given these risks, the stock appears fairly valued at current levels, leading me to maintain a neutral stance despite the continued appeal of its share buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在中國這個關鍵市場面臨阻力，原因是可摺疊智能手機上市的延遲以及在人工智能方面的緩慢進展。儘管最近在人工智能方面採取的一些措施顯示出一定的希望，但蘋果在中國的市場份額在可預見的未來可能仍將承壓。考慮到這些風險，股票在當前水平上似乎被合理定價，因此我保持中立立場，儘管其股票回購的吸引力依然存在。</p>
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Apple (AAPL) Scrambles to Regain Chinese Market Share as Trade War Intensifies

- 蘋果在中國市場面臨重大挑戰，收入下降 8%。  
- 未推出可摺疊手機和 AI 進展緩慢影響市場份額。  
- 儘管 AI 有進展，蘋果在中國的競爭力仍然不足。  

隨着貿易戰的加劇，蘋果（AAPL）正在努力重新奪回中國市場份額