<p>因為 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN 0.55%）是 “七大巨頭” 之一，投資者自然對公司未來一年的狀況充滿好奇。該綜合企業憑藉開創兩個關鍵行業而建立了自身，並且隨着這些業務的持續增長，明智地將自己定位為在幾乎任何經濟環境中都能繁榮發展。在這樣的情況下，其長期成功可能會繼續。</p>
<p>不過，其短期前景則更加不確定。亞馬遜的市值約為 2 萬億美元，估值下滑，似乎正在逐步成為一家成熟公司。這是否意味着投資者應該現在買入，還是應該在增加股份之前先應對短期的不確定性？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyNTEvYm94LXdpdGgtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyNTEvYm94LXdpdGgtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
<h2>對亞馬遜的擔憂</h2>
<p>誠然，投資者可能對亞馬遜最近幾個月的表現感到失望。在過去的一年中，股票沒有淨收益，自 2 月初達到峯值以來已下跌超過 25%。</p>
<p>這種回調大幅降低了其估值溢價。其市盈率從兩年前的 100 以上穩步下降，目前為 30。</p>
<p>在過去的幾年中，人們可能會認為這種相對摺扣使得該股票值得購買。然而，亞馬遜的龐大規模可能並不是其市盈率壓縮的唯一原因。該公司剛剛發佈了 2025 年第一季度的財報，這揭示了一些短期挑戰。</p>
<p>第一季度在線銷售增長放緩至每年 6%，而去年同期為 7%。投資者已經習慣於其雲計算部門亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）的快速增長。儘管如此，其年度增長在第一季度略微下降至 17%，而 2024 年為 18%。</p>
<p>其第三方賣家服務業務也在放緩。在持續實現兩位數百分比增長後，其第一季度的增長降至每年 7%。關税問題增加了不確定性，因為這些問題可能會影響在線銷售和第三方賣家服務。</p>
<h2>繼續信任亞馬遜的理由</h2>
<p>然而，目前尚不清楚關税最終將如何影響銷售。據報道，幾十個國家正在與美國重新談判貿易協議。這可能是關税僅是短期阻力的原因之一。</p>
<p>此外，亞馬遜是全球最大的電子商務公司和雲服務提供商，這兩個行業都在持續增長。Grand View Research 預測，電子商務行業的年複合增長率為 19%，雲計算為 20%，到 2030 年。因此，即使亞馬遜的龐大規模和大數法則可能會阻礙高百分比增長，但這表明公司的擴張仍在繼續。</p>
<p>儘管淨銷售增長放緩，但其第一季度的淨收入為 170 億美元，比去年同期增長了 64%。在此期間，其營業利潤率從一年前的 10.7% 提高至 11.8%，因為公司控制了成本和費用。因此，股票可能並沒有像淨銷售增長率下降所暗示的那樣陷入困境，這可能使亞馬遜在當前的盈利倍數下成為一隻價值股。</p>
<h2>一年後的亞馬遜股票</h2>
<p>考慮到亞馬遜股票的狀態，預計在未來一年內會有所上漲。相對較低的市盈率本身並不能使該公司值得購買，而淨銷售增長放緩應引起投資者的關注。但隨着即將到來的貿易協議，關税問題可能在一年後不會對股票產生如此顯著的影響。</p>
<p>此外，亞馬遜的兩個主要行業在未來十年內可能會繼續快速增長。因此，即使其利潤在 2026 年第一季度未能達到該增長率，投資者仍應從可觀的利潤增長中受益。這種情況使得亞馬遜股票在一年後顯著上漲的可能性更大。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜的股票表現平平，過去一年沒有淨收益，自二月份以來下降了 25%。儘管在線銷售和雲計算業務的增長放緩，但該公司仍然是電子商務和雲服務的領導者，報告了顯著的利潤增長。分析師表示，儘管短期內存在不確定性，包括關税問題，但由於其關鍵行業的持續增長和有利的貿易發展，亞馬遜的股票在未來一年內可能會上漲</p>

<p>Because <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.55%) is a component of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; investors are naturally curious about the state of the company over the next year. The conglomerate built itself on pioneering two key industries and, with secular growth continuing in those businesses, has wisely positioned itself to prosper in nearly any economic environment. Amid such conditions, its long-term success is likely to continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因為 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN 0.55%）是 “七大巨頭” 之一，投資者自然對公司未來一年的狀況充滿好奇。該綜合企業憑藉開創兩個關鍵行業而建立了自身，並且隨着這些業務的持續增長，明智地將自己定位為在幾乎任何經濟環境中都能繁榮發展。在這樣的情況下，其長期成功可能會繼續。</p>
</div><p>Still, its near-term prospects are more uncertain. With a market cap of about $2 trillion and a falling valuation, Amazon appears to be in the process of becoming a mature company. Does that mean investors should buy now, or should they wade through the near-term uncertainty before adding shares?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，其短期前景則更加不確定。亞馬遜的市值約為 2 萬億美元，估值下滑，似乎正在逐步成為一家成熟公司。這是否意味着投資者應該現在買入，還是應該在增加股份之前先應對短期的不確定性？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyNTEvYm94LXdpdGgtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817251%2Fbox-with-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
</div><h2>Concerns about Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對亞馬遜的擔憂</h2>
</div><p>Admittedly, investors may feel disappointed about Amazon's performance in recent months. Over the previous year, the stock has made no net gains, and it has fallen by more than 25% since peaking in early February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>誠然，投資者可能對亞馬遜最近幾個月的表現感到失望。在過去的一年中，股票沒有淨收益，自 2 月初達到峯值以來已下跌超過 25%。</p>
</div><p>That pullback has dramatically reduced its valuation premium. Its P/E ratio, which was above 100 two years ago, has fallen steadily and now stands at 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種回調大幅降低了其估值溢價。其市盈率從兩年前的 100 以上穩步下降，目前為 30。</p>
</div><p>In past years, one might have assumed that that relative discount made the stock a buy. Nonetheless, Amazon's massive size may not be the only reason for its compressed multiple. The company just released its earnings report for the first quarter of 2025, and that brought to light some near-term challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的幾年中，人們可能會認為這種相對摺扣使得該股票值得購買。然而，亞馬遜的龐大規模可能並不是其市盈率壓縮的唯一原因。該公司剛剛發佈了 2025 年第一季度的財報，這揭示了一些短期挑戰。</p>
</div><p>Online sales growth slowed to 6% yearly in Q1 when it grew at 7% in the year-ago quarter. Investors have become accustomed to the fast growth of its cloud computing arm, Amazon Web Services (AWS). Still, its yearly growth fell slightly to 17% in Q1 versus 18% in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一季度在線銷售增長放緩至每年 6%，而去年同期為 7%。投資者已經習慣於其雲計算部門亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）的快速增長。儘管如此，其年度增長在第一季度略微下降至 17%，而 2024 年為 18%。</p>
</div><p>Also slowing is its third-party seller services business. After consistently posting percentage growth in the double-digits, its growth slowed to 7% annually in Q1. Adding to the uncertainty are tariff concerns, as those are likely to affect online sales and third-party seller services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其第三方賣家服務業務也在放緩。在持續實現兩位數百分比增長後，其第一季度的增長降至每年 7%。關税問題增加了不確定性，因為這些問題可能會影響在線銷售和第三方賣家服務。</p>
</div><h2>Reasons to keep the faith in Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>繼續信任亞馬遜的理由</h2>
</div><p>However, it is unclear how tariffs will ultimately affect sales. Dozens of countries are reported to be in the process of renegotiating trade deals with the U.S. That alone may be a reason that tariffs are only a short-term headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前尚不清楚關税最終將如何影響銷售。據報道，幾十個國家正在與美國重新談判貿易協議。這可能是關税僅是短期阻力的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Amazon is the No. 1 e-commerce company and cloud provider, and both industries are on track for further growth. Grand View Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate for the e-commerce industry at 19% and cloud computing at 20% through 2030. Hence, even if Amazon's massive size and the law of large numbers could hamper high-percentage growth, it shows the company's expansion continues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，亞馬遜是全球最大的電子商務公司和雲服務提供商，這兩個行業都在持續增長。Grand View Research 預測，電子商務行業的年複合增長率為 19%，雲計算為 20%，到 2030 年。因此，即使亞馬遜的龐大規模和大數法則可能會阻礙高百分比增長，但這表明公司的擴張仍在繼續。</p>
</div><p>Despite slowing net sales growth, its net income in Q1 was $17 billion, a 64% increase from year-ago levels. During that time, its operating margin improved to 11.8% versus 10.7% one year ago as the company kept its costs and expenses in check. Thus, the stock may not be in as much trouble as the falling net sales growth rates might imply, possibly making Amazon a value stock at its current earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管淨銷售增長放緩，但其第一季度的淨收入為 170 億美元，比去年同期增長了 64%。在此期間，其營業利潤率從一年前的 10.7% 提高至 11.8%，因為公司控制了成本和費用。因此，股票可能並沒有像淨銷售增長率下降所暗示的那樣陷入困境，這可能使亞馬遜在當前的盈利倍數下成為一隻價值股。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon stock in one year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一年後的亞馬遜股票</h2>
</div><p>Considering the state of Amazon's stock, it is likely to rise over the next year. The relatively low P/E ratio does not make the company a buy by itself, and the slowing net sales growth should concern investors. But with upcoming trade deals, the tariff concerns will probably not impact the stock as significantly one year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到亞馬遜股票的狀態，預計在未來一年內會有所上漲。相對較低的市盈率本身並不能使該公司值得購買，而淨銷售增長放緩應引起投資者的關注。但隨着即將到來的貿易協議，關税問題可能在一年後不會對股票產生如此顯著的影響。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Amazon's two main industries are likely to continue growing rapidly for the rest of the decade. Thus, even if its profits do not match that growth rate in the first quarter of 2026, investors should benefit from considerable profit growth. Such conditions make it more likely than not that Amazon stock will be significantly higher one year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，亞馬遜的兩個主要行業在未來十年內可能會繼續快速增長。因此，即使其利潤在 2026 年第一季度未能達到該增長率，投資者仍應從可觀的利潤增長中受益。這種情況使得亞馬遜股票在一年後顯著上漲的可能性更大。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 亞馬遜的市值約為 2 萬億美元，面臨短期不確定性。  
- 第一季度在線銷售增長放緩至 6%，雲計算增長降至 17%。  
- 儘管如此，預計未來一年亞馬遜股票將顯著上漲。  

一年後亞馬遜的股票會達到什麼水平？