<ul>
<li><em>比特幣當前的形勢既充滿希望，也潛藏危險。</em></li>
<li><em>BTC 是在閃爍另一個牛市陷阱，還是這是全面擠壓的準備？</em></li>
</ul>
<p>為了讓比特幣 [BTC] 保持牛市模式，它需要突破那些上方的阻力位。否則，正如 AMBCrypto 指出的，空頭已經在盤旋，等待任何疲軟跡象來大肆獲利。</p>
<p>但重新奪回那些高價值價格節點可不是輕而易舉的事。</p>
<p>歷史上，突破的狂熱往往會誘使弱勢投資者提前獲利，從而給空頭提供了完美的下行流動性掃蕩機會。</p>
<p>現在，隨着 BTC 逼近 1 月底的高點約 $106,249，這種形勢令人感到不安的熟悉。這是另一個精心設計的牛市陷阱的開始嗎？</p>
<h2><strong>聚焦比特幣的短期持有者羣體</strong></h2>
<p>自從比特幣突破 $93,000 閾值以來，短期持有者 MVRV（市場價值與實現價值比率）一直在穩步上升，持有時間超過 155 天的短期持有者在其頭寸上獲得了 +10% 的可觀收益。</p>
<p>通俗來説，這些短期投資者正坐擁未實現的利潤，他們的入場點遠低於 BTC 當前的市場價值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>回顧之前的週期，我們看到短期持有者 MVRV 在 BTC 於 11 月 21 日觸及 $98,154 時達到峯值。</p>
<p>然而，反彈並沒有止步於此。比特幣在接下來的一個月中繼續向 $106,000 邁進，吸收了壓力。</p>
<p>但事情在這裏變得糟糕。買方支持無法維持，短期持有者向市場注入流動性，導致 NUPL（淨未實現利潤/損失）進入深紅區。</p>
<p>這次流動性傾瀉觸發了市場重置，BTC 最終在 4 月初收於 $76,270。</p>
<h2><strong>空頭準備再次咆哮嗎？</strong></h2>
<p>Coinglass 數據發出警告信號：比特幣衍生品的未平倉合約（OI）已飆升至 $660 億，反映出 BTC 在去年第四季度徘徊於 $104,000 範圍時的水平。</p>
<p>這是一場高風險的遊戲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Coinglass</p>
<p>隨着價格走勢測試歷史高點，短期持有者坐擁可觀收益，未平倉合約升温，波動性的成分都已具備。</p>
<p>接下來的幾天可能決定比特幣的反彈是否真正有力，還是僅僅是另一個偽裝的牛市陷阱。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣當前的情況既帶來了機會，也伴隨着風險，因為它接近關鍵的阻力位。分析師警告可能出現牛市陷阱，短期持有者享受着未實現的利潤。歷史模式表明，如果這些持有者拋售，可能會發生流動性拋售，導致市場重置。比特幣衍生品的未平倉合約大幅增加，表明波動性加劇。接下來的幾天將是決定比特幣反彈是否可持續，還是僅僅是投資者的陷阱的關鍵時刻</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s current setup carries both promise and peril.</em></li>
<li><em>Is BTC flashing another bull trap, or is this the setup for a full-blown squeeze?.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特幣當前的形勢既充滿希望，也潛藏危險。</em></li>
<li><em>BTC 是在閃爍另一個牛市陷阱，還是這是全面擠壓的準備？</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p>For Bitcoin [BTC] to stay in bull mode, it needs to crush those overhead resistance levels. Otherwise, as AMBCrypto pointed out, shorts are already circling, waiting to feast on any sign of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了讓比特幣 [BTC] 保持牛市模式，它需要突破那些上方的阻力位。否則，正如 AMBCrypto 指出的，空頭已經在盤旋，等待任何疲軟跡象來大肆獲利。</p>
</div><p>But reclaiming those high-value price nodes won’t be a cakewalk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但重新奪回那些高價值價格節點可不是輕而易舉的事。</p>
</div><p>Historically, breakout euphoria tends to bait weak hands into early profit-taking, giving bears the perfect setup for a downside liquidity sweep.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，突破的狂熱往往會誘使弱勢投資者提前獲利，從而給空頭提供了完美的下行流動性掃蕩機會。</p>
</div><p>Now, with BTC knocking on the door of its late-January highs around $106,249, the setup is eerily familiar. Is this the beginning of yet another well-engineered bull trap?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，隨着 BTC 逼近 1 月底的高點約 $106,249，這種形勢令人感到不安的熟悉。這是另一個精心設計的牛市陷阱的開始嗎？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Spotlighting Bitcoin’s STH cohort</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>聚焦比特幣的短期持有者羣體</strong></h2>
</div><p>Since Bitcoin tore through the $93k barrier, the STH MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) ratio has been steadily climbing, with short-term holders (&gt; 155 days) pocketing a cool +10% on their positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自從比特幣突破 $93,000 閾值以來，短期持有者 MVRV（市場價值與實現價值比率）一直在穩步上升，持有時間超過 155 天的短期持有者在其頭寸上獲得了 +10% 的可觀收益。</p>
</div><p>In layman’s terms, these short-term players are sitting on unrealized profits, with their entry points comfortably below BTC’s current market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通俗來説，這些短期投資者正坐擁未實現的利潤，他們的入場點遠低於 BTC 當前的市場價值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Looking back at the previous cycle, we saw the STH MVRV peak when BTC tapped $98,154 on the 21st of November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顧之前的週期，我們看到短期持有者 MVRV 在 BTC 於 11 月 21 日觸及 $98,154 時達到峯值。</p>
</div><p>However, the rally didn’t stop there. Bitcoin continued to inch its way to the $106k mark over the next month, absorbing the pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，反彈並沒有止步於此。比特幣在接下來的一個月中繼續向 $106,000 邁進，吸收了壓力。</p>
</div><p>But here’s where things went south. The bid-side support couldn’t hold the line, as these STHs flooded the market with liquidity, sending the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) into deep red territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但事情在這裏變得糟糕。買方支持無法維持，短期持有者向市場注入流動性，導致 NUPL（淨未實現利潤/損失）進入深紅區。</p>
</div><p>This liquidity dump triggered a market reset, with BTC ultimately closing at $76,270 by early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這次流動性傾瀉觸發了市場重置，BTC 最終在 4 月初收於 $76,270。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Are the bears ready to roar again?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>空頭準備再次咆哮嗎？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Coinglass data is flashing a cautionary signal: Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives has surged back to $66 billion, mirroring the levels seen when BTC was flirting with the $104k range last Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinglass 數據發出警告信號：比特幣衍生品的未平倉合約（OI）已飆升至 $660 億，反映出 BTC 在去年第四季度徘徊於 $104,000 範圍時的水平。</p>
</div><p>It’s a high-stakes game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一場高風險的遊戲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Coinglass</p>
</div><p>With price action testing historical ceilings, short-term holders sitting on decent gains, and Open Interest heating up, the ingredients for volatility are all in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着價格走勢測試歷史高點，短期持有者坐擁可觀收益，未平倉合約升温，波動性的成分都已具備。</p>
</div><p>The next few days might just decide whether Bitcoin’s rally has real legs – or if it’s just another bull trap in disguise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來的幾天可能決定比特幣的反彈是否真正有力，還是僅僅是另一個偽裝的牛市陷阱。</p>
</div>

比特幣多頭需警惕！——該價格可能成為高槓杆的陷阱門