<p>歷史通常不會重演，但它常常會押韻。因此，投資者可以將過去發生的事情視為未來可能發生的指示。</p>
<p>考慮到這一點，<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.62%) 股票似乎正在形成一種模式：在過去兩年中，它在五月份都取得了大幅的價格上漲，而目前股票的走勢讓人想起了這兩次跳升之前的情況。這可能是投資者現在買入的信號。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc2MDEvcGhvdG8tb2YtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1ncHVzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc2MDEvcGhvdG8tb2YtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1ncHVzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>新年，依舊的估值</h2>
<p>Nvidia 生產圖形處理單元（GPU），這是任何希望執行可以從大量並行處理能力中受益的計算任務的絕佳工具——例如顯示高分辨率視頻遊戲圖形（它們最初設計的任務）和人工智能（AI）模型訓練。</p>
<p>2023 年初，隨着支持 AI 軟件的數據中心建設競賽的啓動，GPU 的需求激增。這導致 Nvidia 在該年 5 月底報告了穩健的 2024 財年第一季度業績並提供了令人印象深刻的 2024 財年第二季度指引後，股價大幅上漲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>快進到 2024 年 5 月。在 Nvidia 已經發布了整整一年的驚人業績後，市場不確定它是否能夠保持增長率。然而，它又發佈了一份令人印象深刻的 2024 財年第一季度報告，推動股價上漲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 5 月，我們看到類似的情況。投資者擔心 Nvidia 無法維持他們習慣的增長速度——不過這次，他們的擔憂是由於特朗普總統的關税和對美國經濟放緩即將來臨的恐懼。因此，股價在接近季度報告時遠低於歷史最高點，前瞻市盈率約為 26。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>這幾乎正是 Nvidia 在過去兩個五月的前瞻市盈率。然而，在報告了穩健的第一季度增長並對全年前景持樂觀態度後，股價通常會開始交易在中 30 到中 40 的區間。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。市盈率 = 市價與每股收益的比率。</p>
<p>由於當前的情況與過去兩年幾乎完全相同，我相當有信心 Nvidia 將在 5 月 28 日發佈 2024 財年第一季度報告後經歷一次大幅股價跳升，只要沒有意外的公告或新挑戰的揭示。</p>
<h2>第一季度將面臨 55 億美元的減記</h2>
<p>在今年第一季度，Nvidia 面臨的一個逆風是美國政府決定限制哪些高端芯片可以出口到中國。由於出口規則的變化，Nvidia 不得不在本季度進行 55 億美元的減記，這將影響其第一季度的收益。這些出口限制也可能拖累未來的需求。</p>
<p>然而，AI 超大規模公司的近期第一季度報告中的聲明表明，儘管特朗普的關税帶來了日益增加的宏觀經濟逆風，他們並沒有改變對數據中心的鉅額資本支出計劃，這些計劃主要是針對 AI 的。他們計劃在雲基礎設施建設上花費數百億美元，這應該能為 Nvidia 提供必要的增長，以證明其當前的估值。</p>
<p>Nvidia 認為，到 2028 年，數據中心的資本支出將達到每年 1 萬億美元，較 2024 年的約 4000 億美元大幅增長。如果這一預測成真，那麼 Nvidia 的股票仍然有大量的長期上漲空間。</p>
<p>但在短期內，Nvidia 的股票可能在 5 月 28 日發佈收益後準備好進行一次大幅波動。考慮到這一點，以當前相對便宜的估值買入股票似乎是一個有利可圖的舉動。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票在歷史上通常在五月份表現出顯著的價格上漲，而當前的市場狀況與往年相似。儘管由於關税和經濟放緩而對增長存在擔憂，但英偉達在 5 月 28 日發佈的強勁財報可能會導致股價上漲。由於出口限制，該公司面臨 55 億美元的減記，但對與人工智能相關的數據中心投資的持續需求表明了長期增長潛力。在財報發佈之前，投資者可能會發現當前的估值具有吸引力</p>

<p>History doesn't normally repeat itself, but it often rhymes. So investors can take what has happened in the past as an indicator of what might happen in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史通常不會重演，但它常常會押韻。因此，投資者可以將過去發生的事情視為未來可能發生的指示。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, a pattern seems to be developing with <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.62%) stock: It has made large price gains in May in each of the past two years, and the way the stock is set up right now is reminiscent of how it looked before both of those jumps. That could be a sign for investors to buy it now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這一點，<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.62%) 股票似乎正在形成一種模式：在過去兩年中，它在五月份都取得了大幅的價格上漲，而目前股票的走勢讓人想起了這兩次跳升之前的情況。這可能是投資者現在買入的信號。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc2MDEvcGhvdG8tb2YtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1ncHVzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817601%2Fphoto-of-data-center-with-gpus.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>New year, same valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新年，依舊的估值</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs), which are fantastic tools for anyone looking to perform the types of computing tasks that can benefit from a lot of parallel processing power -- applications like displaying high-resolution video game graphics (the task they were originally designed for) and artificial intelligence (AI) model training.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 生產圖形處理單元（GPU），這是任何希望執行可以從大量並行處理能力中受益的計算任務的絕佳工具——例如顯示高分辨率視頻遊戲圖形（它們最初設計的任務）和人工智能（AI）模型訓練。</p>
</div><p>Demand for GPUs exploded in early 2023 as the race to build out data centers to support AI software kicked off. This led to a big jump in Nvidia's stock price in late May of that year after it reported solid first-quarter fiscal 2024 results and offered impressive guidance for fiscal Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年初，隨着支持 AI 軟件的數據中心建設競賽的啓動，GPU 的需求激增。這導致 Nvidia 在該年 5 月底報告了穩健的 2024 財年第一季度業績並提供了令人印象深刻的 2024 財年第二季度指引後，股價大幅上漲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Fast-forward to May 2024. After Nvidia had already posted incredible results for an entire year, the market wasn't sure whether it could keep its growth rates up. However, it turned in another impressive fiscal Q1 report that sent the stock higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快進到 2024 年 5 月。在 Nvidia 已經發布了整整一年的驚人業績後，市場不確定它是否能夠保持增長率。然而，它又發佈了一份令人印象深刻的 2024 財年第一季度報告，推動股價上漲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In May 2025, we're seeing a similar setup. Investors are worried that Nvidia won't be able to deliver the pace of growth they've become accustomed to -- though this time, their concerns are driven by factors such as President Donald Trump's tariffs and fears that a U.S. economic slowdown is imminent. As a result, it's heading toward that quarterly report well off its all-time high and trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio in the neighborhood of 26.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 5 月，我們看到類似的情況。投資者擔心 Nvidia 無法維持他們習慣的增長速度——不過這次，他們的擔憂是由於特朗普總統的關税和對美國經濟放緩即將來臨的恐懼。因此，股價在接近季度報告時遠低於歷史最高點，前瞻市盈率約為 26。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That's almost exactly the forward PE that Nvidia was trading at during the past two Mays. However, after reporting solid Q1 growth and giving an upbeat outlook for the rest of the year, the stock often starts to trade in the mid-30s to mid-40s range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這幾乎正是 Nvidia 在過去兩個五月的前瞻市盈率。然而，在報告了穩健的第一季度增長並對全年前景持樂觀態度後，股價通常會開始交易在中 30 到中 40 的區間。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。市盈率 = 市價與每股收益的比率。</p>
</div><p>Because the current setup is nearly identical to the last two years, I'm fairly confident that Nvidia will experience a big share price jump following its fiscal Q1 report on May 28, as long as there are no unexpected announcements or revelations regarding new challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於當前的情況與過去兩年幾乎完全相同，我相當有信心 Nvidia 將在 5 月 28 日發佈 2024 財年第一季度報告後經歷一次大幅股價跳升，只要沒有意外的公告或新挑戰的揭示。</p>
</div><h2>Q1 will feature a $5.5 billion write-off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第一季度將面臨 55 億美元的減記</h2>
</div><p>One headwind for Nvidia that appeared during this year's Q1 was the U.S. government's decision to limit which high-end chips can be exported to China. Because the export rules changed, Nvidia had to take a $5.5 billion writedown this quarter, which will affect its Q1 earnings. Those export restrictions could also drag on future demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年第一季度，Nvidia 面臨的一個逆風是美國政府決定限制哪些高端芯片可以出口到中國。由於出口規則的變化，Nvidia 不得不在本季度進行 55 億美元的減記，這將影響其第一季度的收益。這些出口限制也可能拖累未來的需求。</p>
</div><p>However, the statements by AI hyperscalers in their own recent Q1 reports indicated that they haven't changed their massive capital expenditure plans for data centers, mostly geared toward AI, despite the increasing macroeconomic headwinds generated by Trump's tariffs. The tens of billions of dollars they plan to spend on cloud infrastructure build-outs should give Nvidia the growth necessary to justify its current valuation and then some.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，AI 超大規模公司的近期第一季度報告中的聲明表明，儘管特朗普的關税帶來了日益增加的宏觀經濟逆風，他們並沒有改變對數據中心的鉅額資本支出計劃，這些計劃主要是針對 AI 的。他們計劃在雲基礎設施建設上花費數百億美元，這應該能為 Nvidia 提供必要的增長，以證明其當前的估值。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia believes data center capital expenditures will reach $1 trillion annually by 2028, up from around $400 billion in 2024. If that turns out to be true, then there should still be a ton of long-term upside left in Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 認為，到 2028 年，數據中心的資本支出將達到每年 1 萬億美元，較 2024 年的約 4000 億美元大幅增長。如果這一預測成真，那麼 Nvidia 的股票仍然有大量的長期上漲空間。</p>
</div><p>But in the near term, Nvidia's stock may be primed for a big move after it reports earnings on May 28. With that in mind, picking up shares at their current fairly cheap valuation looks like it would be a lucrative move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在短期內，Nvidia 的股票可能在 5 月 28 日發佈收益後準備好進行一次大幅波動。考慮到這一點，以當前相對便宜的估值買入股票似乎是一個有利可圖的舉動。</p>
</div>

History Says Now Is the Time to Buy Nvidia Stock

- Nvidia 股票在過去兩年五月均有大幅上漲，當前形勢相似。  
- 受限於出口規則，Nvidia 本季度將面臨 55 億美元的減記。  
- 儘管存在短期挑戰，長期增長潛力依然可觀，投資者可考慮當前低估值買入。

歷史告訴我們，現在是購買英偉達股票的好時機