<p>儘管在這個過程中波動很大，但無法否認 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 6.68%）長期的股價表現。在過去十年中，股價飆升了 1790%。2015 年 5 月投資 1000 美元，今天的價值將達到 18910 美元。</p>
<p>得益於在汽車行業的成功，特斯拉已成為全球最有價值的企業之一。但這家電動車（EV）公司的股價目前比峯值低 38%——這一下跌可能讓一些投資者思考這是否是一個買入的機會。</p>
<p>你今天應該將 1000 美元分配到特斯拉股票上，並持有 20 年嗎？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU5MjQvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU5MjQvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一條坎坷的道路</h2>
<p>特斯拉在達到這一點上值得給予大量讚譽。對技術、創新、軟件和製造能力的高度關注導致了快速增長，使得該公司顛覆了汽車行業，成為一個強大的全球品牌。特斯拉基本上啓動了我們今天所知的電動車市場，這無疑推動了多年來的股價上漲。</p>
<p>然而，情況已經發生了戲劇性的變化。公司的巨大增長和盈利能力提升的日子已經成為過去。特斯拉現在是一家掙扎中的汽車製造商。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第一季度，其汽車銷售同比下降 20%，降至 140 億美元。這一下滑部分歸因於生產減少，因為其工廠正在重新調整以交付更新版的 2025 款 Model Y。但由於競爭壓力導致的售價降低也產生了影響，這一逆風在上個季度並不新鮮。公司的營業收入在第一季度暴跌了 66%。</p>
<p>顯然，特斯拉不能指望自己是唯一的電動車參與者。競爭非常激烈，消費者的選擇權增強。此外，更高的利率也表明特斯拉麪臨週期性壓力，因為當購買新車變得對消費者來説不那麼負擔得起時，需求將受到影響。</p>
<p>所有這些都得出一個結論：投資者不應期待特斯拉在未來能實現過去那種令人難以置信的增長。值得一提的是，分析師的共識預期是，特斯拉的收入將在 2024 年至 2027 年間以 13.4% 的年複合增長率增長，這一增長率遠低於過去 10 年的水平。</p>
<h2>對願景的樂觀</h2>
<p>只有對馬斯克的願景極為樂觀的投資者——即對特斯拉未來可能成為的樣子，而非現在的樣子——才應考慮現在購買該股票。也許在 20 年後，這項投資會有所回報，前提是該企業能夠產生大量的收入和自由現金流。特斯拉最強大的支持者相信這將會發生。</p>
<p>這一前景基於特斯拉能夠兑現其向大眾推出更強大自動駕駛技術的承諾。這個過程的第一步將在下個月進行，當時它將在德克薩斯州奧斯汀推出其機器人出租車服務。馬斯克打算在年底之前將該服務擴展到更多美國城市。</p>
<p>但特斯拉在嘗試推出全球機器人出租車車隊時的表現是無法預測的。每個市場都有不同的法規需要解決。當然，在實現完全自動駕駛車輛的過程中仍然存在重大技術障礙。而也許最具挑戰性的障礙是説服普通消費者信任一輛沒有司機的汽車。</p>
<p>特斯拉目前的估值表明，投資者認為這一結果是可能的。它的市盈率為 164。這對於一家正在經歷財務打擊的公司來説是一個荒謬的價格——除非你對其長期前景持高度樂觀態度。</p>
<p>像特斯拉這樣努力推動邊界並對社會產生積極影響的企業屈指可數。但關於它未來的表現仍然存在很多不確定性。</p>
<p>因此，我持懷疑態度。基於公司目前的狀況和股票的高估值，我認為最好避免投資特斯拉。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票在過去十年中上漲了 1790%，但目前比峯值低 38%。該公司面臨着車輛銷售下降 20% 和 2025 年第一季度營業收入下降 66% 的挑戰。分析師預測 2024 年至 2027 年期間的收入增長率將放緩至 13.4%。投資者應保持謹慎，因為特斯拉的高估值和競爭壓力錶明未來顯著增長的不確定性。只有對特斯拉長期願景極為看好的投資者才應考慮現在投資</p>

<p>Despite how volatile it has been along the way, it's impossible to deny <strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 6.68%) long-term share price performance. Over the past decade, the stock has rocketed 1,790% higher. A $1,000 investment made in May 2015 would be worth $18,910 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管在這個過程中波動很大，但無法否認 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 6.68%）長期的股價表現。在過去十年中，股價飆升了 1790%。2015 年 5 月投資 1000 美元，今天的價值將達到 18910 美元。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to its success in the auto industry, Tesla has become one of the most valuable businesses in the world. But the electric vehicle (EV) stock is now 38% below its peak -- a tumble that might have some investors wondering whether this is an opportunity to buy the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益於在汽車行業的成功，特斯拉已成為全球最有價值的企業之一。但這家電動車（EV）公司的股價目前比峯值低 38%——這一下跌可能讓一些投資者思考這是否是一個買入的機會。</p>
</div><p>Should you allocate $1,000 to Tesla shares today and hold them for the next 20 years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你今天應該將 1000 美元分配到特斯拉股票上，並持有 20 年嗎？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU5MjQvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F815924%2F4-teslas-in-a-parking-lot-at-a-charger-station.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A bumpy road</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一條坎坷的道路</h2>
</div><p>Tesla deserves a ton of credit for getting to this point. An intense focus on technology, innovation, software, and manufacturing prowess led to rapid growth, with the business disrupting the auto industry and becoming a powerful global brand. Tesla essentially launched the EV market as we know it today, which certainly propelled the stock price over the years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在達到這一點上值得給予大量讚譽。對技術、創新、軟件和製造能力的高度關注導致了快速增長，使得該公司顛覆了汽車行業，成為一個強大的全球品牌。特斯拉基本上啓動了我們今天所知的電動車市場，這無疑推動了多年來的股價上漲。</p>
</div><p>However, the situation has changed dramatically. The company's days of monster growth and improving profitability are a thing of the past. Tesla is now a struggling automaker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，情況已經發生了戲劇性的變化。公司的巨大增長和盈利能力提升的日子已經成為過去。特斯拉現在是一家掙扎中的汽車製造商。</p>
</div><p>During the first three months of 2025, its vehicle sales declined 20% year over year to $14 billion. Part of the blame for that slide goes to reduced production as its factories retooled to deliver the updated 2025 Model Y. But lower selling prices due to competitive forces also had an impact, a headwind that wasn't new last quarter. The company's operating income tanked by 66% in Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第一季度，其汽車銷售同比下降 20%，降至 140 億美元。這一下滑部分歸因於生產減少，因為其工廠正在重新調整以交付更新版的 2025 款 Model Y。但由於競爭壓力導致的售價降低也產生了影響，這一逆風在上個季度並不新鮮。公司的營業收入在第一季度暴跌了 66%。</p>
</div><p>It's clear that Tesla can't bank on being the only EV player in town. Competition is fierce, putting more power into the hands of consumers. What's more, higher interest rates point to the cyclicality Tesla faces, as demand will be pressured when buying a new car becomes less affordable for customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯然，特斯拉不能指望自己是唯一的電動車參與者。競爭非常激烈，消費者的選擇權增強。此外，更高的利率也表明特斯拉麪臨週期性壓力，因為當購買新車變得對消費者來説不那麼負擔得起時，需求將受到影響。</p>
</div><p>All of this leads to the conclusion that investors should not expect Tesla in the future to deliver the type of incredible growth it did in the past. For what it's worth, analysts' consensus estimates are that its revenue will increase at a compound annual rate of 13.4% between 2024 and 2027, which is a much lower growth rate than its clip over the past 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些都得出一個結論：投資者不應期待特斯拉在未來能實現過去那種令人難以置信的增長。值得一提的是，分析師的共識預期是，特斯拉的收入將在 2024 年至 2027 年間以 13.4% 的年複合增長率增長，這一增長率遠低於過去 10 年的水平。</p>
</div><h2>Bullish on the vision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對願景的樂觀</h2>
</div><p>Only investors who are extremely bullish on Musk's vision for what Tesla could become one day -- as opposed to what it is today -- should consider buying the stock right now. Perhaps in 20 years, the investment could work out, with the hope that the business is generating massive amounts of revenue and free cash flow. Tesla's strongest supporters believe this will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有對馬斯克的願景極為樂觀的投資者——即對特斯拉未來可能成為的樣子，而非現在的樣子——才應考慮現在購買該股票。也許在 20 年後，這項投資會有所回報，前提是該企業能夠產生大量的收入和自由現金流。特斯拉最強大的支持者相信這將會發生。</p>
</div><p>That outlook is based on the premise that Tesla will make good on its promise of introducing a more robust autonomous vehicle technology to the masses. The first step in that process will happen next month, when it will launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Musk intends to bring the service to more U.S. cities by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一前景基於特斯拉能夠兑現其向大眾推出更強大自動駕駛技術的承諾。這個過程的第一步將在下個月進行，當時它將在德克薩斯州奧斯汀推出其機器人出租車服務。馬斯克打算在年底之前將該服務擴展到更多美國城市。</p>
</div><p>But how Tesla will fare in its attempt to launch a worldwide robotaxi fleet is impossible to predict. Every market has different regulations that need to be addressed. Of course, there remain significant technical hurdles on the route to fully self-driving vehicles. And maybe the most challenging hurdle will be to convince the average consumer to trust a vehicle that has no driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特斯拉在嘗試推出全球機器人出租車車隊時的表現是無法預測的。每個市場都有不同的法規需要解決。當然，在實現完全自動駕駛車輛的過程中仍然存在重大技術障礙。而也許最具挑戰性的障礙是説服普通消費者信任一輛沒有司機的汽車。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's current valuation indicates that investors view this outcome as likely. It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 164. That's a ridiculous price to pay for a company that is in the midst of taking a financial hit -- unless you're highly optimistic about its longer-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉目前的估值表明，投資者認為這一結果是可能的。它的市盈率為 164。這對於一家正在經歷財務打擊的公司來説是一個荒謬的價格——除非你對其長期前景持高度樂觀態度。</p>
</div><p>There are few businesses trying to push the envelope and make a positive impact on society like Tesla is. But there is a lot of uncertainty about how it might fare from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像特斯拉這樣努力推動邊界並對社會產生積極影響的企業屈指可數。但關於它未來的表現仍然存在很多不確定性。</p>
</div><p>So, I take the skeptical view. Based on what the company looks like today and the stock's lofty valuation, I think it would be best to avoid investing in Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我持懷疑態度。基於公司目前的狀況和股票的高估值，我認為最好避免投資特斯拉。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Tesla Stock With $1,000 and Hold for 20 Years?

- 特斯拉股價在過去十年上漲了 1,790%。
- 2025 年第一季度，特斯拉汽車銷量同比下降 20%。
- 分析師預計 2024 至 2027 年收入年均增長率為 13.4%。

是否應該用 1000 美元購買特斯拉股票並持有 20 年？