<p>沃倫·巴菲特在本月早些時候的伯克希爾·哈撒韋年會上宣佈，他將在年底辭去首席執行官職務，這讓伯克希爾的股東感到驚訝。巴菲特已經管理伯克希爾近六十年，並在此過程中使許多股東致富，伯克希爾的股票也創造了驚人的回報。</p>
<p>現在，奧馬哈的先知將把接力棒交給伯克希爾的副董事長格雷格·阿貝爾。巴菲特此前已宣佈，阿貝爾將在他辭職後接任首席執行官，儘管時間表直到最近才變得清晰。隨着伯克希爾龐大的 3500 億美元現金儲備，阿貝爾在公司擁有堅實的資產負債表和準備好應對任何機會的資金的情況下接管伯克希爾。以下是阿貝爾在正式成為首席執行官後可能採取的一些舉措。</p>
<h2>他會買什麼？</h2>
<p>許多人猜測巴菲特在儲備現金，以準備將權力交給他的繼任者。當然，巴菲特對此表示否認。雖然阿貝爾和伯克希爾的其他團隊成員完全有能力接過這個火炬，但這仍然是一個巨大的變化，因為巴菲特無疑是有史以來最偉大的投資者，投資者將他作為首席執行官的角色——即使在 94 歲時——視為在自 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行以來市場上常見的風暴中的避風港。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc4MTAvYnVmZmV0dDE5LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc4MTAvYnVmZmV0dDE5LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Motley Fool。</p>
<p>看到伯克希爾以這種速度持續積累現金將令人驚訝，巴菲特本人也表示，伯克希爾團隊總是更願意將資金投入到生產性業務中。然而，伯克希爾面臨的一個問題是，其成功使其規模膨脹。公司的市值已超過 1 萬億美元，伯克希爾的股權投資組合在過去多次超過 3000 億美元。這使得在股票中購買頭寸變得困難，因為伯克希爾希望在可能的情況下保持對公司的持股比例低於 10%，這使得許多公司太小，無法對其產生影響。</p>
<p>我們看到伯克希爾的一件事是不斷增加其在許多現有持股中的股份。伯克希爾並不害怕像當初將 <strong>蘋果</strong> 的股份提升到其總投資組合的 40% 那樣大舉投資。我認為這種趨勢可能會繼續。阿貝爾已經管理伯克希爾·哈撒韋能源一段時間，很明顯，伯克希爾的投資團隊認為國內能源和石油生產商將繼續非常有價值。這讓我想知道伯克希爾是否會在某一天完全收購 <strong>西方石油</strong>。該公司已經擁有 28% 的流通股，伯克希爾最近的許多收購都在能源領域。</p>
<p>巴菲特表示，伯克希爾對完全收購西方石油沒有興趣，但我想知道在阿貝爾管理公司後，這是否會改變。西方石油的首席執行官維基·霍拉布最近表示，被伯克希爾收購 “將是夢想成真”。其他收購則很難預測，但我不認為伯克希爾的投資團隊會偏離伯克希爾的成熟策略。許多人，如泰德·韋施勒和託德·科姆斯，已經管理着大約 10% 的投資組合，他們最近的一些收購，如 <strong>天狼星 XM</strong>，似乎遵循了巴菲特的長期價值導向投資策略。</p>
<h2>預計資本分配將增加</h2>
<p>我預計阿貝爾會利用伯克希爾龐大的現金儲備來增加對股東的資本回報。伯克希爾並沒有像往常一樣回購那麼多股票。</p>
<p>一個可能的原因是伯克希爾的股票估值過高，但阿貝爾可能不會像巴菲特那樣享有同樣的奢侈，股東們可能會期待或要求更穩定的回購流。巴菲特無疑是股東友好的，回購了大量伯克希爾的股票，但阿貝爾可能無法像巴菲特那樣長時間坐擁數千億現金。</p>
<p>這讓我想到阿貝爾可能會認真考慮的另一個資本部署領域：推出股息。伯克希爾從未支付過股息，簡單來説是因為巴菲特認為他可以更好地利用資本——而他確實是對的。但同樣，阿貝爾可能沒有這種奢侈。考慮到伯克希爾的規模使得資本部署變得更加困難，現在支付股息更有意義。</p>
<p>股息也可能吸引新的投資者羣體。此外，股息與伯克希爾的品牌相一致。該公司不僅在資本部署方面表現出色，而且在市場動盪時期被視為避風港。這也是該股票今年表現優於大盤的部分原因。投資者喜歡該公司的多元化業務、強勁的盈利和現金生成能力，以及強大的管理團隊。在我看來，增加一個穩健的股息只會提升這個品牌。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

<p>沃倫·巴菲特宣佈他將辭去伯克希爾哈撒韋的首席執行官職務，將這一角色交給格雷格·阿貝爾。阿貝爾手握 3500 億美元的現金儲備，預計將進行戰略投資，可能會增加對現有持股的投資或收購像西方石油這樣的公司。分析師預測，阿貝爾還可能通過股票回購來提高對股東的資本回報，甚至可能引入分紅，這對從未支付過分紅的伯克希爾來説是一個重大轉變。這一過渡標誌着公司在適應新領導層時的一個關鍵時刻</p>

<p>Warren Buffett surprised <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.36%) (BRK.B -0.37%) shareholders earlier this month when he announced at Berkshire's annual meeting that he would be stepping down as CEO once the year ended. Buffett has run Berkshire for about six decades and made many shareholders rich in the process, with Berkshire's stock generating incredible returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特在本月早些時候的伯克希爾·哈撒韋年會上宣佈，他將在年底辭去首席執行官職務，這讓伯克希爾的股東感到驚訝。巴菲特已經管理伯克希爾近六十年，並在此過程中使許多股東致富，伯克希爾的股票也創造了驚人的回報。</p>
</div><p>Now, the Oracle of Omaha will pass the baton to Berkshire's vice chair, Greg Abel. Buffett had previously announced that Abel would take over as CEO once he stepped down, although the timeline hadn't been clear until recently. With Berkshire's massive $350 billion hoard of cash, Abel is taking over Berkshire at a time when the company has a fortress balance sheet and a war chest ready for any opportunities that should arise. Here are some moves Abel might make once he officially becomes CEO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，奧馬哈的先知將把接力棒交給伯克希爾的副董事長格雷格·阿貝爾。巴菲特此前已宣佈，阿貝爾將在他辭職後接任首席執行官，儘管時間表直到最近才變得清晰。隨着伯克希爾龐大的 3500 億美元現金儲備，阿貝爾在公司擁有堅實的資產負債表和準備好應對任何機會的資金的情況下接管伯克希爾。以下是阿貝爾在正式成為首席執行官後可能採取的一些舉措。</p>
</div><h2>What will he buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>他會買什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Many have speculated that Buffett was stockpiling cash in preparation to hand the reins over to his successor. Buffett has, of course, denied this. While Abel and the rest of the team at Berkshire are more than capable of carrying the torch, it's still a big change, given that Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time and that investors viewed his role as CEO -- even at the age of 94 -- as a port in the barrage of storms that have become common in the market since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多人猜測巴菲特在儲備現金，以準備將權力交給他的繼任者。當然，巴菲特對此表示否認。雖然阿貝爾和伯克希爾的其他團隊成員完全有能力接過這個火炬，但這仍然是一個巨大的變化，因為巴菲特無疑是有史以來最偉大的投資者，投資者將他作為首席執行官的角色——即使在 94 歲時——視為在自 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行以來市場上常見的風暴中的避風港。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc4MTAvYnVmZmV0dDE5LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817810%2Fbuffett19-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>It would be surprising to see Berkshire continue building cash at this pace forever, and Buffett himself has said the Berkshire team would always prefer to put its money to work in productive businesses. However, one problem for Berkshire is that its success has swollen its size. The market cap of the company has surpassed $1 trillion, and Berkshire's equity portfolio has surpassed $300 billion on numerous occasions in the past. That makes buying positions in stocks difficult because Berkshire likes to maintain less than a 10% ownership in companies when possible, and it makes many companies too small to move the needle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到伯克希爾以這種速度持續積累現金將令人驚訝，巴菲特本人也表示，伯克希爾團隊總是更願意將資金投入到生產性業務中。然而，伯克希爾面臨的一個問題是，其成功使其規模膨脹。公司的市值已超過 1 萬億美元，伯克希爾的股權投資組合在過去多次超過 3000 億美元。這使得在股票中購買頭寸變得困難，因為伯克希爾希望在可能的情況下保持對公司的持股比例低於 10%，這使得許多公司太小，無法對其產生影響。</p>
</div><p>One thing we have seen Berkshire do is continually increase its stake in many of its existing holdings. Berkshire isn't afraid to go big like it did when it took <strong>Apple</strong> to 40% of its total portfolio. I think this trend may continue. Abel has been running Berkshire Hathaway Energy for some time, and it's clear that Berkshire's team of investing lieutenants think that domestic energy and oil producers are going to continue to be incredibly valuable. This makes me wonder if Berkshire will one day purchase <strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong> outright. The company already owns 28% of outstanding shares, and many of Berkshire's more recent acquisitions have been in the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們看到伯克希爾的一件事是不斷增加其在許多現有持股中的股份。伯克希爾並不害怕像當初將 <strong>蘋果</strong> 的股份提升到其總投資組合的 40% 那樣大舉投資。我認為這種趨勢可能會繼續。阿貝爾已經管理伯克希爾·哈撒韋能源一段時間，很明顯，伯克希爾的投資團隊認為國內能源和石油生產商將繼續非常有價值。這讓我想知道伯克希爾是否會在某一天完全收購 <strong>西方石油</strong>。該公司已經擁有 28% 的流通股，伯克希爾最近的許多收購都在能源領域。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has said Berkshire has no interest in fully acquiring Occidental, but I wonder if this will change with Abel running the company. Occidental's CEO, Vicki Hollub, has recently said that a buyout by Berkshire &#34;would be a dream come true.&#34; Other purchases are tough to predict, but I wouldn't expect Berkshire's investing lieutenants to stray too far from Berkshire's proven strategy. Many, like Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, already run about 10% of the portfolio, and some of their recent purchases, like <strong>Sirius XM</strong>, seem to be following Buffett's long-term, value-oriented playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特表示，伯克希爾對完全收購西方石油沒有興趣，但我想知道在阿貝爾管理公司後，這是否會改變。西方石油的首席執行官維基·霍拉布最近表示，被伯克希爾收購 “將是夢想成真”。其他收購則很難預測，但我不認為伯克希爾的投資團隊會偏離伯克希爾的成熟策略。許多人，如泰德·韋施勒和託德·科姆斯，已經管理着大約 10% 的投資組合，他們最近的一些收購，如 <strong>天狼星 XM</strong>，似乎遵循了巴菲特的長期價值導向投資策略。</p>
</div><h2>Expect capital distributions to pick up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預計資本分配將增加</h2>
</div><p>One thing I would expect Abel to do with Berkshire's massive cash hoard is to increase capital returns to shareholders. Berkshire hasn't been buying back as much of Berkshire's stock as it normally does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我預計阿貝爾會利用伯克希爾龐大的現金儲備來增加對股東的資本回報。伯克希爾並沒有像往常一樣回購那麼多股票。</p>
</div><p>One possible reason is that Berkshire's stock is too highly valued, but Abel may not be afforded the same luxury as Buffett by shareholders, who will likely expect or possibly demand a steadier stream of buybacks. Buffett was certainly shareholder-friendly and repurchased plenty of Berkshire stock, but Abel probably can't sit on hundreds of billions of cash for as long as Buffett can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個可能的原因是伯克希爾的股票估值過高，但阿貝爾可能不會像巴菲特那樣享有同樣的奢侈，股東們可能會期待或要求更穩定的回購流。巴菲特無疑是股東友好的，回購了大量伯克希爾的股票，但阿貝爾可能無法像巴菲特那樣長時間坐擁數千億現金。</p>
</div><p>This brings me to another area of capital deployment that I think Abel will strongly consider: Launching a dividend. Berkshire has never paid a dividend, simply because Buffett thought he could deploy capital better -- and he was right. But, once again, Abel probably doesn't have this luxury. Given how Berkshire's size makes it more difficult to deploy capital, it makes more sense to pay a dividend now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這讓我想到阿貝爾可能會認真考慮的另一個資本部署領域：推出股息。伯克希爾從未支付過股息，簡單來説是因為巴菲特認為他可以更好地利用資本——而他確實是對的。但同樣，阿貝爾可能沒有這種奢侈。考慮到伯克希爾的規模使得資本部署變得更加困難，現在支付股息更有意義。</p>
</div><p>A dividend would also likely draw in a new investor base. Furthermore, a dividend aligns with Berkshire's brand. The company is not only one of the best at deploying capital, but it's been viewed as a flight to safety during times of market turbulence. This is part of the reason the stock has crushed the broader market this year. Investors like the company's diversity of businesses, strong earnings and cash generation, and strong management team. Adding a sturdy dividend only boosts this brand, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息也可能吸引新的投資者羣體。此外，股息與伯克希爾的品牌相一致。該公司不僅在資本部署方面表現出色，而且在市場動盪時期被視為避風港。這也是該股票今年表現優於大盤的部分原因。投資者喜歡該公司的多元化業務、強勁的盈利和現金生成能力，以及強大的管理團隊。在我看來，增加一個穩健的股息只會提升這個品牌。</p>
</div>

Prediction: What Might Greg Abel Do With a $350 Billion Cash Stockpile When Buffett Passes the Berkshire Torch

- 巴菲特宣佈將在年底辭去伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執行官職務。  
- 副董事長阿貝爾將接任，伯克希爾擁有 3500 億美元現金儲備。  
- 阿貝爾可能會增加資本回報並考慮首次派發股息。

預測：當巴菲特將伯克希爾的接力棒傳遞時，Greg Abel 可能會如何處理 3500 億美元的現金儲備