<p>在 5 月 12 日星期一，因美國和中國將暫停對大多數商品的互相關税 90 天的消息，整體市場指數大幅上漲——這一舉措建立在上週末美國和英國公佈的貿易協議框架的基礎上。</p><p>截至星期一收盤，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC 0.10%）年初至今僅下跌 0.6%——考慮到該指數在 4 月初拋售的最低點時年內下跌超過 15%，這一反彈令人驚訝。</p><p>雖然看到投資組合餘額恢復是件好事，但如果這些收益是短暫的，那就意義不大，投資者可能會想知道這次反彈是真實的還是虛假的。</p><p>無論如何，在波動時期關注優質公司是重要的。但我認為 2025 年股市拋售的最糟糕階段可能已經過去，如果市場繼續上漲，我會建議你採取什麼措施。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0129710050059db67a8bf71dd0f6e0b1?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0129710050059db67a8bf71dd0f6e0b1"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="n4sp1y8h">結束的曙光</h2><p>沒有完美的科學可以知道何時拋售即將開始，也沒有辦法準確判斷何時結束。但有一些簡單的指標可以用來衡量市場情緒。</p><p>最簡單的指標是股票市場各行業之間的關係。當投資者對經濟和企業利潤的前景持樂觀態度時，像科技、消費品、通信、金融和工業等以增長為導向和週期性行業往往表現良好。但當投資者感到恐懼時，公用事業、消費品和醫療保健等防禦性和 “安全” 行業通常會超越基準。</p><p>同樣，投資者在不確定時期往往會轉向黃金等硬資產。在 4 月底的某個時刻，黃金價格年初至今上漲超過 30%，而標準普爾 500 指數則下跌超過 12%。</p><p>另一個值得關注的良好指標是 CBOE 波動率指數，通常稱為 VIX。它衡量標準普爾 500 指數短期期權的隱含波動率。如果投資者願意為看漲期權支付更多，因為他們認為市場在短期內會大幅上漲，或者為看跌期權支付更多以保護下行風險，那麼這將導致更高的波動性。</p><p>當標準普爾 500 指數在 2 月底接近歷史最高點時，VIX 處於今年的最低點。然後，在特朗普總統於 4 月 2 日（“解放日”）公佈全球關税後不久，VIX 與標準普爾 500 指數的大規模拋售同步飆升。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/321a6c12166357b70b745587e2456de7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="487" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/321a6c12166357b70b745587e2456de7"/></figure><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p><p>在過去幾周，VIX 一直在下降，而標準普爾 500 指數則在上漲，這種組合可能表明拋售的最糟糕階段已經過去。</p><h2 id="d5bd2jpcn">優質公司可能因錯誤原因被拋售</h2><p>過去一個半月的經歷是一個很好的教訓，提醒我們在股市波動中被情緒驅動投資決策的陷阱。這也顯示了市場對不確定性的厭惡程度。</p><p>特朗普施加的高額關税導致許多國家對美國出口實施更高的關税。不斷升級的緊張局勢使美國瀕臨全面貿易戰的邊緣。企業領導人毫不避諱地闡述這些關税對其業務的影響。</p><p>例如，<strong>英偉達</strong> 表示將在其 2026 財年第一季度計提 55 億美元的費用。由於對中國的依賴，<strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>耐克</strong> 的股價遭受重創，既是作為製造中心，也是作為主要銷售市場。</p><p>然而，最近財報季頂尖科技公司的強勁業績提醒我們，廣泛市場拋售的很大一部分是基於對尚未實現的經濟衰退的恐懼。</p><p><strong>微軟</strong> 報告了出色的業績，並重申了其樂觀的收入和運營利潤率指引。</p><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 加大了對數據中心和人工智能的投資，管理層預測今年的資本支出將增加。</p><p><strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 報告了穩定上升的收入和高利潤率，並提高了股息。</p><p>在大型科技公司之外，幾家公司因錯誤原因遭遇股價重創。例如，<strong>美國運通</strong> 報告了出色的業績，並重申了其全年指引。隨着公司擴展其網絡並展現出無可挑剔的風險管理，其長期投資論點看起來比以往更強。然而，股價卻遭到重創，市盈率被壓縮到超低水平。</p><p>微軟、Meta、Alphabet 和美國運通只是一些例子，這些公司即使在貿易戰緊張局勢加劇時也表現良好，但其股價仍然下跌。</p><h2 id="3x4ui8bns">優質公司在長期中獲勝</h2><p>市場拋售可能迅速而殘酷。當你的屏幕閃爍着紅色，且沒有盡頭時，很容易陷入恐懼之中。</p><p>然而，擁有強大資產負債表的公司不需要因為華盛頓的新政策可能會影響幾個季度的業績而徹底改變其資本支出計劃。投資者可以採取類似的方法，不必根據與其持有的基礎投資論點無關的因素來徹底改變投資組合。</p><p>抵制採取行動的衝動可能很困難，但我發現應對波動的最佳方法之一是以限制壓力的方式進行投資。</p><p>壓力可以以不同形式出現。但一些最簡單的減輕壓力的方法是以長期思維進行投資，使用你不會很快需要的資金。此外，持有你理解且基本面強勁的公司的股票。最後，接受艱難的條件可能在好轉之前會變得更糟。</p><p>當市場上漲時，同樣的方法也適用。你可以通過認識到自己不必在最低點買入，或者等到能以極低的價格買到股票時再買，從而減輕自己的壓力。即使你覺得自己錯過了最近幾周的特價股票，這也沒關係。真正的成功來自於投資於頂尖公司並長期持有，而不是試圖完美把握短期市場波動的機會。</p>

<p>美國和中國已暫停相互關税 90 天，這導致市場在 5 月 12 日大幅上漲。標準普爾 500 指數從早期的損失中顯著反彈，這引發了對這種復甦可持續性的質疑。行業表現和 CBOE 波動率指數等指標表明，拋售的最壞時刻可能已經過去。儘管近期波動性加大，但主要科技公司的強勁盈利表明，由於對經濟衰退的擔憂，許多股票被低估。投資者在這些不確定時期被建議關注優質公司</p>

<p>The broader market indexes soared on Monday, May 12, in response to news that the U.S. and China would pause their reciprocal tariffs on most goods for 90 days -- a move that built on the momentum from the trade deal framework that the U.S. and U.K. revealed at the end of last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 12 日星期一，因美國和中國將暫停對大多數商品的互相關税 90 天的消息，整體市場指數大幅上漲——這一舉措建立在上週末美國和英國公佈的貿易協議框架的基礎上。</p>
</div><p>As of Monday's close, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.10%) was down just 0.6% year to date -- an astonishing rebound considering the index was down by more than 15% on the year at the nadir of its sell-off in early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至星期一收盤，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>（^GSPC 0.10%）年初至今僅下跌 0.6%——考慮到該指數在 4 月初拋售的最低點時年內下跌超過 15%，這一反彈令人驚訝。</p>
</div><p>While it's great to see portfolio balances recover, those gains will matter little if they are fleeting, and investors are likely wondering if this bounce is the real deal or a head fake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然看到投資組合餘額恢復是件好事，但如果這些收益是短暫的，那就意義不大，投資者可能會想知道這次反彈是真實的還是虛假的。</p>
</div><p>Either way, it's important to focus on quality companies during volatile periods. But here's why I think the worst of the 2025 stock market sell-off may be over, and what I'd recommend you do if the market keeps rallying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，在波動時期關注優質公司是重要的。但我認為 2025 年股市拋售的最糟糕階段可能已經過去，如果市場繼續上漲，我會建議你採取什麼措施。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwODIvYS1oYW5kc2hha2UtZmVhdHVyaW5nLW9uZS1hcm0tZHJlc3NlZC13aXRoLWFuLWFtZXJpY2FuLWZsYWctYW5kLWFub3RoZXItd2l0aC1hLWNoaW5lc2UtZmxhZy13aXRoLWNvaW5zLWluLXRoZS1iYWNrZ3JvdW5kLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818082%2Fa-handshake-featuring-one-arm-dressed-with-an-american-flag-and-another-with-a-chinese-flag-with-coins-in-the-background.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>An end in sight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結束的曙光</h2>
</div><p>There's no perfect science for knowing when a sell-off is about to start nor for gauging when one is over. But there are some simple indicators you can use to gauge market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有完美的科學可以知道何時拋售即將開始，也沒有辦法準確判斷何時結束。但有一些簡單的指標可以用來衡量市場情緒。</p>
</div><p>The simplest is the relationship between stock market sectors. When investors are optimistic about the outlook for the economy and corporate profits, growth-focused and cyclical sectors like tech, consumer discretionary, communications, financials, and industrials tend to do well. But when investors are fearful, then defensive and &#34;safe&#34; sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare usually outperform the benchmarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最簡單的指標是股票市場各行業之間的關係。當投資者對經濟和企業利潤的前景持樂觀態度時，像科技、消費品、通信、金融和工業等以增長為導向和週期性行業往往表現良好。但當投資者感到恐懼時，公用事業、消費品和醫療保健等防禦性和 “安全” 行業通常會超越基準。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, investors often turn to hard assets like gold during times of uncertainty. At one point in late April, gold prices were up by over 30% year to date while the S&amp;P 500 was down more than 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，投資者在不確定時期往往會轉向黃金等硬資產。在 4 月底的某個時刻，黃金價格年初至今上漲超過 30%，而標準普爾 500 指數則下跌超過 12%。</p>
</div><p>Another good indicator to watch is the CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX. It measures the implied volatility of short-term options on the S&amp;P 500. If investors are willing to pay more for a call option because they think the market will go up a lot in the short term, or a put option to protect against downside risk, then that will lead to higher volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個值得關注的良好指標是 CBOE 波動率指數，通常稱為 VIX。它衡量標準普爾 500 指數短期期權的隱含波動率。如果投資者願意為看漲期權支付更多，因為他們認為市場在短期內會大幅上漲，或者為看跌期權支付更多以保護下行風險，那麼這將導致更高的波動性。</p>
</div><p>The VIX was at its lowest point of the year when the S&amp;P 500 was near its all-time high in late February. Then, shortly after President Trump unveiled his global tariffs on April 2 (&#34;Liberation Day&#34;), the VIX spiked in lockstep with a massive sell-off in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當標準普爾 500 指數在 2 月底接近歷史最高點時，VIX 處於今年的最低點。然後，在特朗普總統於 4 月 2 日（“解放日”）公佈全球關税後不久，VIX 與標準普爾 500 指數的大規模拋售同步飆升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6a098727f82f41a3fb06afd726e611d3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6a098727f82f41a3fb06afd726e611d3.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In the last few weeks, the VIX has been falling and the S&amp;P 500 has been climbing, a combination that could signal that the worst of the sell-off is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾周，VIX 一直在下降，而標準普爾 500 指數則在上漲，這種組合可能表明拋售的最糟糕階段已經過去。</p>
</div><h2>Great companies can sell off for bad reasons</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>優質公司可能因錯誤原因被拋售</h2>
</div><p>The last month and a half or so have been a great lesson on the pitfalls of getting caught up in stock market volatility and letting emotions drive your investment decisions. It also shows the degree to which the market despises uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去一個半月的經歷是一個很好的教訓，提醒我們在股市波動中被情緒驅動投資決策的陷阱。這也顯示了市場對不確定性的厭惡程度。</p>
</div><p>The steep tariffs that Trump imposed led to a host of countries imposing their own higher tariffs on U.S. exports. The escalating tensions put the U.S. on the brink of an all-out trade war. Corporate leaders didn't shy away from outlining the effects these tariffs would have on their businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普施加的高額關税導致許多國家對美國出口實施更高的關税。不斷升級的緊張局勢使美國瀕臨全面貿易戰的邊緣。企業領導人毫不避諱地闡述這些關税對其業務的影響。</p>
</div><p>For example, <strong>Nvidia</strong> said it would be taking a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal 2026 first quarter. Shares of <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Nike</strong> got crushed due to their exposure to China, both as a manufacturing hub and as a major market for sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>英偉達</strong> 表示將在其 2026 財年第一季度計提 55 億美元的費用。由於對中國的依賴，<strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>耐克</strong> 的股價遭受重創，既是作為製造中心，也是作為主要銷售市場。</p>
</div><p>However, strong results from top tech companies in the recent earnings season were a reminder that much of the broad market sell-off was based on fears of an economic downturn that had yet to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近財報季頂尖科技公司的強勁業績提醒我們，廣泛市場拋售的很大一部分是基於對尚未實現的經濟衰退的恐懼。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong> reported phenomenal results and reaffirmed its upbeat revenue and operating margin guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong> 報告了出色的業績，並重申了其樂觀的收入和運營利潤率指引。</p>
</div><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong> ramped up its data center and artificial intelligence investments, and management forecast higher capital expenditures this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 加大了對數據中心和人工智能的投資，管理層預測今年的資本支出將增加。</p>
</div><p><strong>Alphabet</strong> reported steadily rising revenue and high margins. It also raised its dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 報告了穩定上升的收入和高利潤率，並提高了股息。</p>
</div><p>Outside of big tech, several companies saw their stock prices get crushed for the wrong reasons. For example, <strong>American Express</strong> reported excellent results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Its long-term investment thesis looks stronger than ever with the company expanding its network while displaying impeccable risk management. Yet the stock got clobbered, and its price-to-earnings ratio was compressed to bargain-bin levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大型科技公司之外，幾家公司因錯誤原因遭遇股價重創。例如，<strong>美國運通</strong> 報告了出色的業績，並重申了其全年指引。隨着公司擴展其網絡並展現出無可挑剔的風險管理，其長期投資論點看起來比以往更強。然而，股價卻遭到重創，市盈率被壓縮到超低水平。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and American Express are just some of the many examples of companies that were doing just fine even when trade war tensions were hot, yet their stock prices fell anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟、Meta、Alphabet 和美國運通只是一些例子，這些公司即使在貿易戰緊張局勢加劇時也表現良好，但其股價仍然下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Quality wins in the long run</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>優質公司在長期中獲勝</h2>
</div><p>Market sell-offs can be swift and brutal. When your screen flashes red with no end in sight, it's easy to get caught up in fear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場拋售可能迅速而殘酷。當你的屏幕閃爍着紅色，且沒有盡頭時，很容易陷入恐懼之中。</p>
</div><p>However, companies with strong balance sheets don't need to overhaul their capital spending plans just because new policies in Washington appear liable to throw a wrench in a few quarters of results. Investors can take a similar approach by not overhauling their investment portfolios based on factors that don't pertain to the underlying investment theses of their holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，擁有強大資產負債表的公司不需要因為華盛頓的新政策可能會影響幾個季度的業績而徹底改變其資本支出計劃。投資者可以採取類似的方法，不必根據與其持有的基礎投資論點無關的因素來徹底改變投資組合。</p>
</div><p>Resisting the urge to take action can be difficult, but I've found that one of the best ways to handle volatility is to invest in a way that limits pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抵制採取行動的衝動可能很困難，但我發現應對波動的最佳方法之一是以限制壓力的方式進行投資。</p>
</div><p>Pressure can come in different forms. But some of the simplest ways to mitigate pressure are to invest with a long-term mindset with money that you won't need anytime soon. Also, stick to holding shares of companies that you understand and that have strong fundamentals. Lastly, accept that rough conditions can get worse before they get better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壓力可以以不同形式出現。但一些最簡單的減輕壓力的方法是以長期思維進行投資，使用你不會很快需要的資金。此外，持有你理解且基本面強勁的公司的股票。最後，接受艱難的條件可能在好轉之前會變得更糟。</p>
</div><p>The same approach applies when the market is going up. You can eliminate pressure on yourself by recognizing that you don't have to time the very bottom to buy, nor wait to buy stocks until you can get them at incredible prices. Even if you're feeling like you missed out on the bargain-bin prices from recent weeks, that's OK. The real wins come from investing in top companies and holding them over the long term, not from trying to capitalize perfectly on short-term periods of market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當市場上漲時，同樣的方法也適用。你可以通過認識到自己不必在最低點買入，或者等到能以極低的價格買到股票時再買，從而減輕自己的壓力。即使你覺得自己錯過了最近幾周的特價股票，這也沒關係。真正的成功來自於投資於頂尖公司並長期持有，而不是試圖完美把握短期市場波動的機會。</p>
</div>

U.S.-China Tariff Cuts: Is the 2025 Stock Market Sell-Off Officially Over?

- 美國與中國暫停大部分商品關税，市場反應積極。  
- S&P 500 指數年初至今僅下跌 0.6%。  
- 投資者應關注優質公司以應對市場波動。

美中關税削減：2025 年股市拋售是否已經正式結束？