<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.07%) 股票一直是長期投資者的熱門贏家。然而，該公司現在正面臨困境。過去一年，該股票幾乎沒有上漲，收入僅比 2022 年略有增長。這導致該股票被 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 超越，後者的增長速度遠快於這家 iPhone 製造商。</p>
<p>到今年年底，我相信另一隻大型科技股將超越蘋果的市值。<strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 0.18%) 由於其利潤擴張、人工智能（AI）的增長以及蘋果即將面臨的訴訟，似乎有望超越蘋果。以下是我預測亞馬遜股票將在 2025 年市值上超過蘋果的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜的收入增長更快</h2>
<p>與蘋果相比，亞馬遜在收入增長方面佔有優勢。過去五年，該公司的收入增長了 102%，而蘋果的收入增長為 46%，這主要發生在疫情後的激增期間。亞馬遜在更大的收入基礎上也在比蘋果更快地增長，過去 12 個月的收入為 6500 億美元，而蘋果為 4000 億美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNzUvYXNpYW4tc2hvcHBlci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNzUvYXNpYW4tc2hvcHBlci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>亞馬遜的收入為何能在如此大規模下快速增長？它在兩個巨大的可尋址市場中運作：電子商務和雲計算。在線購物仍在（緩慢地）超越傳統零售，消費者的支出份額將進一步推動亞馬遜在 2025 年的增長。人工智能已成為亞馬遜雲計算部門 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的福音，推動了上個季度 17% 的年收入增長。該部門的利潤率極高。</p>
<p>蘋果沒有這樣的順風，而亞馬遜將在今年剩餘時間內繼續受益。</p>
<h2>更大的利潤率擴張，政府訴訟</h2>
<p>在損益表上，亞馬遜在未來一年及以後擴展利潤率的難度應該比蘋果小。股市是前瞻性的，將繼續對亞馬遜的經營槓桿潛力給予溢價。如果蘋果因關税成本受到影響，其利潤率可能會朝相反方向移動。蘋果的供應鏈已經優化到極限，過去 12 個月的經營利潤率為 32%，而亞馬遜為 11%。</p>
<p>另一個可能影響蘋果盈利能力的因素是即將到來的訴訟，涉及其默認搜索引擎支付和 App Store 費用。谷歌搜索的壟斷訴訟的補救措施可能是阻止其每年向蘋果支付 200 億美元（或更多）以使谷歌搜索成為 Safari 瀏覽器的默認引擎。這是蘋果每年 1270 億美元經營收入的一個巨大比例，可能會在一夜之間蒸發。</p>
<p>法官已經裁定，蘋果需要允許開發者在其應用程序中提供其他支付方式，讓他們繞過蘋果在應用內購買中收取的 30% 費用。如果應用程序規避這些支付，蘋果的另一個巨大利潤來源將消失。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜的整體估值更便宜</h2>
<p>在以過去的收益定義時，蘋果股票看起來比亞馬遜稍微便宜，市盈率（P/E）為 33，而亞馬遜為 34。然而，當我們考慮到亞馬遜的增長潛力和蘋果業務面臨的風險時，亞馬遜股票的未來看起來更為光明。</p>
<p>到今年年底，亞馬遜的經營利潤率將繼續擴張，伴隨着其持久的收入增長，這應該是顯而易見的。蘋果的業務面臨失去兩個巨大利潤來源的風險，這將抑制其整體盈利能力。</p>
<p>今天，蘋果過去 12 個月的經營收入為 1270 億美元，遠遠超過亞馬遜的 720 億美元。今天的這一差距是亞馬遜股票市值為 2.18 萬億美元，而蘋果為 3.15 萬億美元的原因。在 2025 年剩餘時間裏，我預計這一收益差距將繼續縮小，這將導致投資者對亞馬遜的估值超過蘋果，因此它將在市值上領先於蘋果。</p>

亞馬遜

蘋果

<p>預計到 2025 年底，亞馬遜的市值將超過蘋果，這主要得益於其更快的收入增長和利潤率擴張。在過去五年中，亞馬遜的收入增長了 102%，而蘋果僅增長了 46%。亞馬遜在電子商務和雲計算方面表現強勁，而蘋果則面臨訴訟和潛在利潤率下降的挑戰。儘管亞馬遜的市盈率略低，但其增長潛力以及對蘋果盈利能力的風險表明，亞馬遜的股票未來更為光明</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.07%) stock has been a blockbuster winner for long-term investors. However, the company is now hitting a rough patch. The stock is barely up over the past year, with revenue only slightly up from 2022. This has caused the stock to be dethroned as the largest company in the world by market cap by <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, which are growing much faster than the iPhone maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.07%) 股票一直是長期投資者的熱門贏家。然而，該公司現在正面臨困境。過去一年，該股票幾乎沒有上漲，收入僅比 2022 年略有增長。這導致該股票被 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 超越，後者的增長速度遠快於這家 iPhone 製造商。</p>
</div><p>By the end of this year, I believe another big tech stock will surpass Apple in market capitalization. <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.18%) looks poised to leapfrog Apple due to its margin expansion, growth of artificial intelligence (AI), and Apple's looming lawsuits. Here's why I predict Amazon stock will finish 2025 ahead of Apple in market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到今年年底，我相信另一隻大型科技股將超越蘋果的市值。<strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 0.18%) 由於其利潤擴張、人工智能（AI）的增長以及蘋果即將面臨的訴訟，似乎有望超越蘋果。以下是我預測亞馬遜股票將在 2025 年市值上超過蘋果的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon is recording faster revenue growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜的收入增長更快</h2>
</div><p>One notch in Amazon's belt compared to Apple is revenue growth. The company has grown its revenue by 102% in the last five years, compared to 46% for Apple, which mostly came during the post-pandemic surge. Amazon is growing faster than Apple at a larger revenue base, too, generating $650 billion in revenue over the last 12 months vs. $400 billion at Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與蘋果相比，亞馬遜在收入增長方面佔有優勢。過去五年，該公司的收入增長了 102%，而蘋果的收入增長為 46%，這主要發生在疫情後的激增期間。亞馬遜在更大的收入基礎上也在比蘋果更快地增長，過去 12 個月的收入為 6500 億美元，而蘋果為 4000 億美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNzUvYXNpYW4tc2hvcHBlci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818375%2Fasian-shopper.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>How is Amazon's revenue growing so quickly at such a large scale? It plays in two huge addressable markets: e-commerce and cloud computing. Online shopping is still (slowly) overtaking traditional retail in consumer wallet share, which will drive even further growth for Amazon in 2025. AI has become a boon for Amazon's cloud computing division in Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accelerated revenue growth to 17% year over year last quarter. This segment has sky-high profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜的收入為何能在如此大規模下快速增長？它在兩個巨大的可尋址市場中運作：電子商務和雲計算。在線購物仍在（緩慢地）超越傳統零售，消費者的支出份額將進一步推動亞馬遜在 2025 年的增長。人工智能已成為亞馬遜雲計算部門 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的福音，推動了上個季度 17% 的年收入增長。該部門的利潤率極高。</p>
</div><p>Apple does not have this tailwind at its back, while Amazon will keep benefiting throughout the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果沒有這樣的順風，而亞馬遜將在今年剩餘時間內繼續受益。</p>
</div><h2>More profit margin expansion, government lawsuits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更大的利潤率擴張，政府訴訟</h2>
</div><p>Moving down the income statement, Amazon should have an easier time than Apple expanding its profit margin over the rest of this year and beyond. The stock market is forward-looking and will place a continued premium on Amazon's operating leverage potential. Apple's profit margins may move in the other direction if it gets hurt by tariff costs on imports to the United States from China. Its supply chain is already optimized to the gills, posting 32% operating margins over the last 12 months compared to 11% at Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在損益表上，亞馬遜在未來一年及以後擴展利潤率的難度應該比蘋果小。股市是前瞻性的，將繼續對亞馬遜的經營槓桿潛力給予溢價。如果蘋果因關税成本受到影響，其利潤率可能會朝相反方向移動。蘋果的供應鏈已經優化到極限，過去 12 個月的經營利潤率為 32%，而亞馬遜為 11%。</p>
</div><p>Another factor that could hurt Apple's profitability is the looming lawsuits coming for its default search engine payment and App Store fees. A remedy in Google Search's monopoly lawsuit could be to prevent its $20 billion (or more) annual payment to Apple for making Google Search the default engine on the Safari browser. This is a huge percentage of Apple's $127 billion in annual operating income that could evaporate overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個可能影響蘋果盈利能力的因素是即將到來的訴訟，涉及其默認搜索引擎支付和 App Store 費用。谷歌搜索的壟斷訴訟的補救措施可能是阻止其每年向蘋果支付 200 億美元（或更多）以使谷歌搜索成為 Safari 瀏覽器的默認引擎。這是蘋果每年 1270 億美元經營收入的一個巨大比例，可能會在一夜之間蒸發。</p>
</div><p>A judge already ruled that Apple will need to let developers offer other payment methods within their applications, letting them bypass Apple's 30% fee on in-app purchases. If applications sidestep these payments, another huge cash cow for Apple will disappear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法官已經裁定，蘋果需要允許開發者在其應用程序中提供其他支付方式，讓他們繞過蘋果在應用內購買中收取的 30% 費用。如果應用程序規避這些支付，蘋果的另一個巨大利潤來源將消失。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon has a cheaper holistic valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜的整體估值更便宜</h2>
</div><p>Apple stock looks slightly cheaper than Amazon when defined by trailing earnings, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 33 compared to 34 for Amazon. However, when we factor in Amazon's growth potential and the risks facing Apple's business, the future looks much brighter for Amazon's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在以過去的收益定義時，蘋果股票看起來比亞馬遜稍微便宜，市盈率（P/E）為 33，而亞馬遜為 34。然而，當我們考慮到亞馬遜的增長潛力和蘋果業務面臨的風險時，亞馬遜股票的未來看起來更為光明。</p>
</div><p>By the end of this year, it should be clear that Amazon's operating margin will keep expanding along with its durable revenue growth. Apple's business is at risk of losing two huge cash cows that will dampen its overall profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到今年年底，亞馬遜的經營利潤率將繼續擴張，伴隨着其持久的收入增長，這應該是顯而易見的。蘋果的業務面臨失去兩個巨大利潤來源的風險，這將抑制其整體盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Today, Apple's operating income of $127 billion greatly surpasses Amazon's $72 billion over the past 12 months. This gap today is why Amazon stock has a market cap of $2.18 trillion vs. Apple's $3.15 trillion. Through the rest of 2025, I expect this earnings gap to keep closing, which will cause investors to value Amazon more than Apple, and is why it will finish the year ahead in market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，蘋果過去 12 個月的經營收入為 1270 億美元，遠遠超過亞馬遜的 720 億美元。今天的這一差距是亞馬遜股票市值為 2.18 萬億美元，而蘋果為 3.15 萬億美元的原因。在 2025 年剩餘時間裏，我預計這一收益差距將繼續縮小，這將導致投資者對亞馬遜的估值超過蘋果，因此它將在市值上領先於蘋果。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This AI Stock Will Be Worth More Than Apple By the End of 2025

- 蘋果公司面臨增長乏力，市值被英偉達和微軟超越。  
- 亞馬遜在過去五年收入增長 102%，預計將超越蘋果。  
- 蘋果的盈利能力受訴訟和關税影響，亞馬遜則持續擴大利潤率。

預測：這隻 AI 股票將在 2025 年底時市值超過蘋果