<p>如果你看過電影《大空頭》，這部電影基於邁克爾·劉易斯的小説，且由著名演員史蒂夫·卡瑞爾、克里斯蒂安·貝爾、瑞安·高斯林和傑瑞米·強主演，那麼你可能知道邁克爾·伯裏是誰。這位前斯坦福大學神經學住院醫師在互聯網早期通過在線發佈股票投資想法而聲名鵲起。</p>
<p>他的想法非常出色，以至於他最終離開了醫學領域，創辦了自己的基金。在大衰退之前，伯裏準確地對房地產市場做空，為他的基金 Scion Capital 賺取了數億美元的利潤。現在，伯裏管理着另一隻名為 Scion Asset Management 的基金，而這隻基金在第一季度幾乎賣掉了所有股票，同時也購買了看跌期權。伯裏是否又一次成功進行了&#34;大空頭&#34;交易？看起來確實如此。</p>
<h2>伯裏完美把握了因關税引發的拋售時機</h2>
<p>伯裏從不持有過大的投資組合，通常持有大約十隻股票，可能多幾隻或少幾隻。在第一季度，他幾乎賣掉了所有持股。他曾對中國持相當樂觀的態度，擁有阿里巴巴、百度、京東和 PDD Holdings 等大型中國股票。但在賣掉這些股票後，他還購買了這些公司的看跌期權。看跌期權與看漲期權類似，但方向相反，基本上是在押注股票價格會下跌。伯裏還購買了 Nvidia 的看跌期權。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg2MjcvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg2MjcvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>現在，請記住，向證券交易委員會提交的 13F 文件僅顯示了 Scion 在 3 月 31 日交易結束時的持倉。我們不知道伯裏在第一季度的哪個時點賣出了這些股票，或者以什麼價格賣出。</p>
<p>然而，伯裏很可能看到了美國與中國之間日益緊張的貿易關係，並決定提前應對可能因關税引發的市場整體拋售。如果是這樣的話，伯裏成功進行了另一筆&#34;大空頭&#34;交易，並且時機把握得非常完美，因為在特朗普總統的&#34;解放日&#34;後，市場在四月初絕對崩潰，從二月份的高點下跌了近 20%。今年某個時點，Nvidia 的交易價格下跌了 30%，而且從年內的高點下跌得更多。</p>
<p>Nvidia 不僅受到貿易戰的影響，還因為特朗普政府對某些半導體芯片對中國的出口限制而受到打擊。Nvidia 在中國的業務相當可觀，但自從美國和中國宣佈暫停相互提高關税的 90 天后，股票已經恢復了很多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>有趣的是，伯裏唯一剩下的多頭頭寸是跨國化妝品公司雅詩蘭黛，該公司在過去一年中下跌超過 50%（截至 5 月 16 日）。Scion 實際上在第一季度加倍了對該公司的持倉。伯裏在深度價值股票上採取多頭頭寸並不罕見，就像他在 GameStop 爆發成一場史詩般的零售交易狂潮之前所做的那樣。</p>
<h2>伯裏是要轉向長期看空嗎？</h2>
<p>我們實際上要等到 7 月份看到 Scion 當前季度的 13F 文件，才能知道這個問題的答案。然而，伯裏很可能只是短期看空，並且預見到了貿易戰的到來。伯裏以前也這樣做過。在 2022 年第二季度，正當美聯儲開始其激進的加息行動時，Scion 也賣掉了所有股票，只留下了一隻。到第三季度，Scion 又開始重新積累股票。</p>
<p>當然，如果伯裏在第一季度賣掉了所有股票，然後在市場劇烈拋售後買入，正好在特朗普宣佈暫停提高關税之前，這將是相當令人印象深刻的。我不會對這位傳奇投資者感到驚訝。伯裏也可能更加看空，因為他密切研究經濟數據，這些數據表明消費者支出和整體經濟可能放緩。</p>
<p>我認為最大的收穫是，我們還不清楚伯裏在今年剩餘時間內的看空或看多立場。然而，伯裏顯然又成功進行了另一筆&#34;大空頭&#34;交易。</p>

雅詩蘭黛

<p>著名投資者邁克爾·伯裏（Michael Burry），因成功押注房地產市場崩潰而聞名，已幾乎出售其基金 Scion Asset Management 中的所有股票，併購買了包括英偉達（Nvidia）在內的看跌期權。這一舉動表明，他可能預見到由於美中貿易緊張局勢加劇，市場將出現下行。伯裏目前剩餘的多頭頭寸在雅詩蘭黛（Estée Lauder）上，該公司股價已大幅下跌。他未來的投資策略仍不確定，但看起來他可能又執行了一筆 “空頭大交易”</p>

<p>If you've seen the movie <em>The Big Short</em>, which is based on the novel by Michael Lewis and features acclaimed actors Steve Carrell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Jeremy Strong, then you probably know who Michael Burry is. The former Stanford neurology resident rose to prominence while posting stock ideas online during the early days of the internet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你看過電影《大空頭》，這部電影基於邁克爾·劉易斯的小説，且由著名演員史蒂夫·卡瑞爾、克里斯蒂安·貝爾、瑞安·高斯林和傑瑞米·強主演，那麼你可能知道邁克爾·伯裏是誰。這位前斯坦福大學神經學住院醫師在互聯網早期通過在線發佈股票投資想法而聲名鵲起。</p>
</div><p>His ideas were so good that he eventually left the medical field to launch his own fund. Prior to the Great Recession, Burry correctly bet against the housing market, making hundreds of millions in profits for his fund, Scion Capital. Now, Burry runs another fund called Scion Asset Management, which happened to sell nearly all of its stocks in the first quarter, while also buying put options. Did Burry just pull off another &#34;big short&#34; trade? It certainly looks that way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的想法非常出色，以至於他最終離開了醫學領域，創辦了自己的基金。在大衰退之前，伯裏準確地對房地產市場做空，為他的基金 Scion Capital 賺取了數億美元的利潤。現在，伯裏管理着另一隻名為 Scion Asset Management 的基金，而這隻基金在第一季度幾乎賣掉了所有股票，同時也購買了看跌期權。伯裏是否又一次成功進行了&#34;大空頭&#34;交易？看起來確實如此。</p>
</div><h2>Burry timed the tariff-induced sell-off perfectly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯裏完美把握了因關税引發的拋售時機</h2>
</div><p>Burry never runs too large of a portfolio, typically holding about a dozen stocks, plus or minus a few. In the first quarter, he sold nearly all of his holdings. He had been quite bullish on China, owning large Chinese stocks like <strong>Alibaba</strong>, <strong>Baidu</strong>, <strong>JD.Com</strong>, and <strong>PDD Holdings</strong>. But after selling these stocks, he also purchased put options on these names. Put options are similar to call options but in the opposite direction, essentially betting that a stock price will decline. Burry also purchased put options on <strong>Nvidia</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯裏從不持有過大的投資組合，通常持有大約十隻股票，可能多幾隻或少幾隻。在第一季度，他幾乎賣掉了所有持股。他曾對中國持相當樂觀的態度，擁有阿里巴巴、百度、京東和 PDD Holdings 等大型中國股票。但在賣掉這些股票後，他還購買了這些公司的看跌期權。看跌期權與看漲期權類似，但方向相反，基本上是在押注股票價格會下跌。伯裏還購買了 Nvidia 的看跌期權。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg2MjcvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818627%2Fperson-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Now, keep in mind that the 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission only shows us Scion's positions at the close of trading on March 31. We have no idea at what point during the first quarter Burry sold or at what price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，請記住，向證券交易委員會提交的 13F 文件僅顯示了 Scion 在 3 月 31 日交易結束時的持倉。我們不知道伯裏在第一季度的哪個時點賣出了這些股票，或者以什麼價格賣出。</p>
</div><p>However, it's quite possible that Burry saw rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China and decided to get ahead of a potential marketwide sell-off caused by tariffs. If this was the case, then Burry pulled off another &#34;big short&#34; trade and timed it perfectly because the market absolutely collapsed in early April after President Donald Trump's &#34;Liberation Day,&#34; falling nearly 20% from highs made in February. Nvidia, at one point this year, traded 30% lower and was down much more from highs made during the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，伯裏很可能看到了美國與中國之間日益緊張的貿易關係，並決定提前應對可能因關税引發的市場整體拋售。如果是這樣的話，伯裏成功進行了另一筆&#34;大空頭&#34;交易，並且時機把握得非常完美，因為在特朗普總統的&#34;解放日&#34;後，市場在四月初絕對崩潰，從二月份的高點下跌了近 20%。今年某個時點，Nvidia 的交易價格下跌了 30%，而且從年內的高點下跌得更多。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia not only got hit by the trade war but also after the Trump administration placed export restrictions on certain semiconductor chips to China. Nvidia does a substantial amount of business in China, but the stock has recovered a lot since the U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on higher tariff rates against one another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 不僅受到貿易戰的影響，還因為特朗普政府對某些半導體芯片對中國的出口限制而受到打擊。Nvidia 在中國的業務相當可觀，但自從美國和中國宣佈暫停相互提高關税的 90 天后，股票已經恢復了很多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Interestingly, Burry's lone remaining long position is the multinational cosmetics company <strong>Estée Lauder</strong>, which is down over 50% in the last year (as of May 16). Scion actually doubled its position in the company in the first quarter. It's not uncommon for Burry to take long positions in deep-value stocks like he did with <strong>GameStop</strong> right before the meme stock blasted into orbit in what turned into an epic retail trading frenzy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，伯裏唯一剩下的多頭頭寸是跨國化妝品公司雅詩蘭黛，該公司在過去一年中下跌超過 50%（截至 5 月 16 日）。Scion 實際上在第一季度加倍了對該公司的持倉。伯裏在深度價值股票上採取多頭頭寸並不罕見，就像他在 GameStop 爆發成一場史詩般的零售交易狂潮之前所做的那樣。</p>
</div><h2>Is Burry going long-term bear?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯裏是要轉向長期看空嗎？</h2>
</div><p>We really won't know the answer to this question until we see Scion's 13F for the current quarter sometime in July. However, it's quite possible that Burry was only short-term bearish and saw the trade war coming. Burry has done this before. In the second quarter of 2022, right after the Federal Reserve began its intense interest rate hiking campaign, Scion also sold all of its stocks except one. By the third quarter, Scion had begun accumulating stocks again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們實際上要等到 7 月份看到 Scion 當前季度的 13F 文件，才能知道這個問題的答案。然而，伯裏很可能只是短期看空，並且預見到了貿易戰的到來。伯裏以前也這樣做過。在 2022 年第二季度，正當美聯儲開始其激進的加息行動時，Scion 也賣掉了所有股票，只留下了一隻。到第三季度，Scion 又開始重新積累股票。</p>
</div><p>It would, of course, be quite impressive if Burry sold all of his stocks in the first quarter and then bought the dip after the market sold off intensely right before Trump announced a pause on elevated tariff rates. I wouldn't put it past the legendary investor. Burry could also be more long-term bearish, as he studies economic data closely, which indicates a potential slowdown in consumer spending and the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，如果伯裏在第一季度賣掉了所有股票，然後在市場劇烈拋售後買入，正好在特朗普宣佈暫停提高關税之前，這將是相當令人印象深刻的。我不會對這位傳奇投資者感到驚訝。伯裏也可能更加看空，因為他密切研究經濟數據，這些數據表明消費者支出和整體經濟可能放緩。</p>
</div><p>I think the big takeaway is that we don't quite know how Burry is positioned for the rest of the year just yet in terms of being bearish or bullish. However, it definitely looks like Burry pulled off another &#34;big short&#34; trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為最大的收穫是，我們還不清楚伯裏在今年剩餘時間內的看空或看多立場。然而，伯裏顯然又成功進行了另一筆&#34;大空頭&#34;交易。</p>
</div>

After Nearly Dumping His Entire Portfolio and Buying Puts on Nvidia, Did Famed Investor Michael Burry Just Pull Off Another "Big Short?" It Certainly Looks That Way.

- 邁克爾·巴里在第一季度幾乎賣掉所有股票併購買看跌期權。  
- 他可能預見到美中貿易緊張局勢導致市場下跌。  
- 巴里目前的唯一長期持倉是雅詩蘭黛，過去一年下跌超過 50%。

在幾乎清空整個投資組合併購買英偉達的看跌期權後，著名投資者邁克爾·伯裏是否又成功進行了另一次 “大空頭”？看起來確實是這樣