<p>投資者對 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.20%)(GOOGL 0.17%) 的股票持極其負面的看法。從表面上看，他們可能有充分的理由這樣認為，因為 Alphabet 的主要業務正受到各方的攻擊。對 Alphabet 當前運營的三大主要威脅是：人工智能、經濟逆風和政府。這三者都可能給 Alphabet 帶來麻煩，但我仍然認為這些擔憂不足以解釋 Alphabet 的股票價格如此低廉。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的股票很少會便宜到這種程度，現在可能是十年來一次的機會，以歷史低估值購買其股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzODEvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzODEvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>對 Alphabet 業務的威脅是真實的</h2>
<p>首先，讓我們來解決我為 Alphabet 的業務概述的三大擔憂。顯然，人工智能是投資者擔心的一個問題，尤其是當 <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL) 的高管在聯邦法庭作證時，他們認為傳統搜索引擎將被人工智能取代。谷歌搜索在第一季度佔據了 56% 的收入，因此這顯然是其商業模式的重要組成部分。</p>
<p>認為 Alphabet 的管理層對這一威脅完全視而不見是一個錯誤，他們正在通過在谷歌搜索引擎的結果頂部推廣人工智能搜索摘要來應對。這在許多消費者之間架起了傳統搜索與人工智能之間的橋樑，這可能足以讓谷歌保持領先。此外，谷歌搜索在第一季度的收入同比增長了 10%。生成式人工智能模型已經推出近三年，如果使用谷歌搜索的人流失，結果現在應該已經顯現出來。</p>
<p>轉向一般廣告收入，Alphabet 對這一收入來源的依賴極大。在第一季度，77% 的收入來自廣告（谷歌搜索被歸入這一領域）。廣告是週期性的，廣告需求隨着整體經濟情緒的變化而起伏。許多企業擔心我們正直接走向衰退，原因是關税。無論這種情況是否會發生，這裏真正的問題是；投資者需要知道廣告收入隨着經濟週期的波動而波動。因此，僅僅因為 Alphabet 的廣告收入未來可能會下降，並不意味着一旦經濟恢復正常，它不會迅速反彈。</p>
<p>最後，Alphabet 被判定為經營兩項非法壟斷，一項是在搜索業務，另一項是在其廣告平台上。提出的補救措施之一是強迫 Alphabet 出售其谷歌瀏覽器，儘管在這一方面仍有更多討論。我們仍然遠未知道政府將如何拆分 Alphabet，如果真的拆分。此外，各種上訴程序可能會將此案提交至最高法院，這將需要更多時間。</p>
<p>預測此案的結果幾乎是不可能的，投資者也不應嘗試。然而，市場已經假設會有負面結果，這就是為什麼該股票的交易價格如此便宜。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 的股票很少如此便宜</h2>
<p>從市盈率（P/E）的角度來看，Alphabet 的股票很少達到這些估值水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>如果投資者看到一隻股票的交易價格為 18 倍的過去收益，而在第一季度收入和每股收益（EPS）分別增長了 12% 和 49%，你會認為這是一個毫無疑問的買入機會。但由於 Alphabet 的名字與之相關，投資者卻感到擔憂。</p>
<p>市場對 Alphabet 面臨的外部威脅極為擔憂，儘管這些威脅是真實存在的，但我認為市場已經為這三者的最壞情況定價，儘管我認為 Alphabet 在應對其中兩個威脅方面準備充分（政府威脅是真實的，但無法預測）。</p>
<p>因此，我認為投資者可以謹慎地在 Alphabet 股票上建立頭寸，預計它可能需要一些時間才能恢復。如果恢復，它可能會成為未來十年表現最佳的投資之一，得益於增長和估值擴張的雙重推動。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>投資者目前對 Alphabet（GOOG, GOOGL）股票持負面態度，原因包括人工智能的威脅、經濟逆風和政府監管。儘管存在這些擔憂，該股票的估值處於歷史低位，提供了潛在的買入機會。Alphabet 來自 Google 搜索的收入同比增長了 10%，雖然廣告收入具有周期性，但隨着經濟復甦可能會反彈。該股票的市盈率較低，暗示其可能被低估。投資者被鼓勵謹慎考慮 Alphabet 股票的長期增長潛力</p>

<p>Investors are incredibly negative on <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.20%)(GOOGL 0.17%) stock. On the surface, they may have a good reason to be, as Alphabet's primary business is under attack from all directions. There are three primary threats to Alphabet's current operation: AI, economic headwinds, and government. All three of these could spell trouble for Alphabet, but I still think that these concerns aren't enough to warrant Alphabet's dirt cheap stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.20%)(GOOGL 0.17%) 的股票持極其負面的看法。從表面上看，他們可能有充分的理由這樣認為，因為 Alphabet 的主要業務正受到各方的攻擊。對 Alphabet 當前運營的三大主要威脅是：人工智能、經濟逆風和政府。這三者都可能給 Alphabet 帶來麻煩，但我仍然認為這些擔憂不足以解釋 Alphabet 的股票價格如此低廉。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's stock rarely gets this cheap, and right now could be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to scoop up shares at a historically low valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的股票很少會便宜到這種程度，現在可能是十年來一次的機會，以歷史低估值購買其股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzODEvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818381%2Fcelebrating-stock-market-success.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The threats to Alphabet's business are real</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>對 Alphabet 業務的威脅是真實的</h2>
</div><p>First, let's tackle the three concerns that I've outlined for Alphabet's business. AI is obviously one that investors are worried about, especially when high-ranking managers from <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL) testify in a federal court that they believe traditional search engines will be replaced by AI. Google search accounted for 56% of revenue in Q1, so this is clearly a massive part of its business model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，讓我們來解決我為 Alphabet 的業務概述的三大擔憂。顯然，人工智能是投資者擔心的一個問題，尤其是當 <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL) 的高管在聯邦法庭作證時，他們認為傳統搜索引擎將被人工智能取代。谷歌搜索在第一季度佔據了 56% 的收入，因此這顯然是其商業模式的重要組成部分。</p>
</div><p>To think that Alphabet's management is completely blind to this threat is a mistake, and they're combating it by promoting AI search summaries at the top of results on its Google search engine. This bridges the gap between traditional search and AI for many consumers, which may be enough to keep Google at the top. Additionally, Google search saw its revenue rise 10% year over year in the first quarter. Generative AI models have been out for nearly three years now, and if there were an exodus from using Google search, it likely would have shown up in the results by now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>認為 Alphabet 的管理層對這一威脅完全視而不見是一個錯誤，他們正在通過在谷歌搜索引擎的結果頂部推廣人工智能搜索摘要來應對。這在許多消費者之間架起了傳統搜索與人工智能之間的橋樑，這可能足以讓谷歌保持領先。此外，谷歌搜索在第一季度的收入同比增長了 10%。生成式人工智能模型已經推出近三年，如果使用谷歌搜索的人流失，結果現在應該已經顯現出來。</p>
</div><p>Moving to general advertising revenue, Alphabet is incredibly dependent on this revenue stream. In Q1, 77% of revenue came from advertisements (Google search is grouped into this area). Advertising is cyclical, as demand for ads rises and falls with general economic sentiment. Many businesses fear that we're heading directly for a recession due to tariffs. Whether this pans out isn't really the point here; investors need to know that advertising revenue rises and falls with economic cycles. So, just because Alphabet's ad revenue <em>may</em> fall in the future, it doesn't mean it won't come roaring back once the economy has gotten back on track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>轉向一般廣告收入，Alphabet 對這一收入來源的依賴極大。在第一季度，77% 的收入來自廣告（谷歌搜索被歸入這一領域）。廣告是週期性的，廣告需求隨着整體經濟情緒的變化而起伏。許多企業擔心我們正直接走向衰退，原因是關税。無論這種情況是否會發生，這裏真正的問題是；投資者需要知道廣告收入隨着經濟週期的波動而波動。因此，僅僅因為 Alphabet 的廣告收入未來可能會下降，並不意味着一旦經濟恢復正常，它不會迅速反彈。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Alphabet has been found guilty of operating two illegal monopolies, one in the search business and another on its advertising platform. One of the remedies that has been proposed is forcing Alphabet to sell its Google Chrome browser, although there is still more discussion involved on this front. We're still far from knowing how the government will break up Alphabet, if it does so at all. Additionally, various appeal processes will likely land this case in front of the Supreme Court, which will take even more time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，Alphabet 被判定為經營兩項非法壟斷，一項是在搜索業務，另一項是在其廣告平台上。提出的補救措施之一是強迫 Alphabet 出售其谷歌瀏覽器，儘管在這一方面仍有更多討論。我們仍然遠未知道政府將如何拆分 Alphabet，如果真的拆分。此外，各種上訴程序可能會將此案提交至最高法院，這將需要更多時間。</p>
</div><p>Predicting the outcome of this case is practically impossible, and investors shouldn't attempt to. However, the market has already assumed that there will be a negative result, which is why the stock trades for as cheap a price tag as it does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預測此案的結果幾乎是不可能的，投資者也不應嘗試。然而，市場已經假設會有負面結果，這就是為什麼該股票的交易價格如此便宜。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's stock is seldom this cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 的股票很少如此便宜</h2>
</div><p>From a price-to-earnings (P/E) standpoint, Alphabet's stock rarely reaches these valuation levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從市盈率（P/E）的角度來看，Alphabet 的股票很少達到這些估值水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/92e8461f7679c73d89723d70ba26853f.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If an investor were presented a stock that trades at 18 times trailing earnings that grew revenue and earnings per share (EPS) by 12% and 49%, respectively, in Q1, you'd think this was a no-brainer buy.But, because Alphabet's name is attached to it, investors are worried.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投資者看到一隻股票的交易價格為 18 倍的過去收益，而在第一季度收入和每股收益（EPS）分別增長了 12% 和 49%，你會認為這是一個毫無疑問的買入機會。但由於 Alphabet 的名字與之相關，投資者卻感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The market is incredibly concerned about external threats facing Alphabet, and while those threats are real, I think the market has already priced in a worst-case scenario for all three, even though I think Alphabet is well equipped to face two of them (the government threat is real but impossible to predict).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場對 Alphabet 面臨的外部威脅極為擔憂，儘管這些威脅是真實存在的，但我認為市場已經為這三者的最壞情況定價，儘管我認為 Alphabet 在應對其中兩個威脅方面準備充分（政府威脅是真實的，但無法預測）。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I think investors can cautiously take a position in Alphabet stock with the expectation that it might take some time for it to recover. If it does, it could be one of the best-performing investments over the next decade thanks to a one-two punch of growth and multiple expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我認為投資者可以謹慎地在 Alphabet 股票上建立頭寸，預計它可能需要一些時間才能恢復。如果恢復，它可能會成為未來十年表現最佳的投資之一，得益於增長和估值擴張的雙重推動。</p>
</div>

A Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity: Here's Why I'm Buying Alphabet Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 投資者對 Alphabet 的股票持極度負面態度，主要因 AI、經濟逆風和政府監管三大威脅。  
- 儘管面臨挑戰，Alphabet 的股票估值極低，可能是十年一遇的買入機會。  
- 第一季度廣告收入增長 10%，顯示出其業務韌性，投資者可謹慎佈局。

十年難得的機會：這就是為什麼我迫不及待地購買 Alphabet 股票