<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -0.99%) 的股票最近經歷了一些波動的交易。在因對先進人工智能（AI）硬件的需求前景和新進口税的擔憂而下跌後，特朗普政府宣佈放寬關税政策，公司的股價受益於爆發性的反彈動能。</p>
<p>隨着英偉達股票在特朗普政府調整關税政策後飆升，投資者可能會想知道現在是否已經太晚而無法購買該股票。繼續閲讀，看看兩位《傻瓜投資》貢獻者對英偉達未來三年的前景的看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxOTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxOTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達在 AI 處理器和軟件服務領域可能保持強大的領先地位</h2>
<p><strong>基思·努南：</strong> 自從 AI 革命在幾年前迅速升温以來，英偉達一直處於先進圖形處理單元（GPU）和加速器的前沿。目前，幾乎沒有跡象表明，包括 <strong>超微</strong> 和 <strong>英特爾</strong> 在內的競爭對手正在趕上該公司。中國設計師（包括華為）可能在某個時刻取得重大進展，但看起來對這些處理器的需求將主要集中在中國及其盟友中。</p>
<p>由於 AI 可能為公司和政府提供重大競爭優勢，因此將繼續有巨大的激勵來大量投資於英偉達在高性能硬件方面的優勢。更好的是，該公司通過其 CUDA 軟件平台增強了競爭壁壘，幫助開發者充分利用 AI 處理器。這將使 AMD、英特爾和其他參與者在這一領域擊敗英偉達變得非常困難。</p>
<p>隨着英偉達銷售和利潤表現出色，它在其他潛在爆炸性類別（包括自主 AI 軟件和機器人技術）中也有更多的靈活性進行實驗。包括 AMD 和英特爾在內的競爭對手在 AI 處理器領域的競爭已經相當艱難，這在假設上使他們在大規模支出以拓展核心競爭力之外的領域時靈活性降低。</p>
<p>隨着重大宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性在前方，英偉達的股票在今年可能會繼續經歷顯著的波動。另一方面，該公司在 AI 處理器領域的實力應繼續幫助英偉達實現強勁的銷售和收益，並推動進入其他業務類別。英偉達在未來三年仍面臨一些重大風險，但我認為對該股票最緊迫的風險因素是可能影響整個市場的宏觀經濟和地緣政治動態。</p>
<h2>英偉達現在可能吸引價值投資者</h2>
<p><strong>詹妮弗·賽比爾：</strong> 在生成 AI 時代，英偉達在過去幾年一直是一隻贏家股票。然而，關於未來的一些不確定性使得很難判斷它在三年後會處於何種位置，以及今天是否值得購買。</p>
<p>它在過去因其遊戲產品而取得成功，但由於在快速擴展的生成 AI 領域的主導地位而成為家喻户曉的名字。對其 GPU 的需求激增，2025 財年第四季度（截至 1 月 26 日）的銷售同比增長 78%，達到 390 億美元。展望未來，管理層預測 2026 財年第一季度銷售將增長 65%。首席執行官黃仁勳表示，持續的巨大需求可歸因於公司最新一代的 AI 產品，名為 Blackwell。</p>
<p>管理層指出，其機會是多層次和廣泛的。其產品現在服務於互聯網和技術以外的多個行業，並且以比以前更多的方式被使用。特別相關的是對 GPU 驅動的數據中心的需求不斷增長，或者説英偉達管理層稱之為 AI 工廠。數據中心的工作範式正在改變，更加重視機器學習和生成 AI，使數據中心市場的機會從 1 萬億美元提升到 2 萬億美元。這一點尤其重要，因為數據中心現在佔英偉達收入的 88%。</p>
<p>與任何新技術一樣，新競爭者會試圖複製好的東西，並試圖以更低的價格做到這一點。像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>蘋果</strong> 這樣的頂級科技公司正在努力設計專用 GPU，以更低的成本推動至少部分業務，即使他們目前仍依賴於英偉達。這意味着即使機會在增長，英偉達在其中的份額可能不會成比例增加，客户的更多選擇也可能削弱其定價能力。</p>
<p>最後，將英偉達的估值納入分析是有趣的。它的前瞻性一年市盈率僅為 24。這可能表明市場認為該公司正在放緩。股價下跌可能是因為市場正在定價競爭和飽和的影響。</p>
<p>另一方面，這可能只是因為該公司增長足夠快，以跟上市場的預期，這意味着這隻成長股是個便宜貨。這可能意味着它被低估了，市場的認知與即將到來的現實之間的滯後可能會為耐心的投資者在未來三年創造意外之財。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票因對人工智能硬件的需求擔憂和新的進口税而經歷了波動，但在關税政策變化後反彈。分析師預測，英偉達將在人工智能處理器領域保持領先，得益於強勁的銷售和通過其 CUDA 平台獲得的競爭優勢。然而，宏觀經濟的不確定性可能導致股票持續波動。儘管過去表現出色，但未來仍存在不確定性，特別是隨着競爭加劇和數據中心動態的變化。英偉達的估值表明市場對其增長持懷疑態度，當前的前瞻市盈率為 24</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.99%) stock has seen some volatile trading lately. After sinking in response to concerns about the demand outlook for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) hardware and new import taxes that threatened to destabilize global trade, the company's share price benefited from explosive rebound momentum after the Trump administration announced a softening of its tariff policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -0.99%) 的股票最近經歷了一些波動的交易。在因對先進人工智能（AI）硬件的需求前景和新進口税的擔憂而下跌後，特朗普政府宣佈放寬關税政策，公司的股價受益於爆發性的反彈動能。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia stock surging following the Trump administration's shift on tariff policies, investors may be wondering whether it's now too late to buy into the stock. Read on for a look at what two Motley Fool contributors think Nvidia's prospects are over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着英偉達股票在特朗普政府調整關税政策後飆升，投資者可能會想知道現在是否已經太晚而無法購買該股票。繼續閲讀，看看兩位《傻瓜投資》貢獻者對英偉達未來三年的前景的看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxOTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814199%2Fgettyimages-1484192634.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia will likely retain a formidable lead in AI processors and software services</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達在 AI 處理器和軟件服務領域可能保持強大的領先地位</h2>
</div><p><strong>Keith Noonan:</strong> Nvidia has been at the forefront of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerators since the AI revolution started rapidly gaining steam a couple of years ago. Thus far, there's little indication that competitors, including <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and <strong>Intel</strong>, are catching up to the company. Meaningful advances for Chinese designers, including Huawei, could emerge at some point, but it looks like demand for those processors will be largely concentrated in China and its allies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>基思·努南：</strong> 自從 AI 革命在幾年前迅速升温以來，英偉達一直處於先進圖形處理單元（GPU）和加速器的前沿。目前，幾乎沒有跡象表明，包括 <strong>超微</strong> 和 <strong>英特爾</strong> 在內的競爭對手正在趕上該公司。中國設計師（包括華為）可能在某個時刻取得重大進展，但看起來對這些處理器的需求將主要集中在中國及其盟友中。</p>
</div><p>With AI potentially providing major competitive advantages for both companies and governments, there will continue to be massive incentives to invest heavily in the kind of high-powered hardware that Nvidia has a big edge in. Even better, the company has strengthened its competitive moat through its CUDA software platform, which helps developers get the most out of AI processors. This will likely make it very difficult for AMD, Intel, and other players to beat Nvidia in the space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於 AI 可能為公司和政府提供重大競爭優勢，因此將繼續有巨大的激勵來大量投資於英偉達在高性能硬件方面的優勢。更好的是，該公司通過其 CUDA 軟件平台增強了競爭壁壘，幫助開發者充分利用 AI 處理器。這將使 AMD、英特爾和其他參與者在這一領域擊敗英偉達變得非常困難。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia posting great sales and margins, it's also got more flexibility to experiment in other potentially explosive categories, including agentic AI software and robotics. Rivals, including AMD and Intel, are having a hard enough time competing in the AI processor space, and that hypothetically leaves them with less flexibility when it comes to spending big to branch outside their core competencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着英偉達銷售和利潤表現出色，它在其他潛在爆炸性類別（包括自主 AI 軟件和機器人技術）中也有更多的靈活性進行實驗。包括 AMD 和英特爾在內的競爭對手在 AI 處理器領域的競爭已經相當艱難，這在假設上使他們在大規模支出以拓展核心競爭力之外的領域時靈活性降低。</p>
</div><p>With significant macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty on the horizon, there's a good chance that Nvidia stock will continue to see significant volatility this year. On the other hand, the company's strength in the AI processor space should continue to help Nvidia score strong sales and earnings and also facilitate pushes into other business categories. Nvidia still faces some substantial risks over the next three years, but I think the most pressing risk factors for the stock are potential macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics that extend to the market at large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着重大宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性在前方，英偉達的股票在今年可能會繼續經歷顯著的波動。另一方面，該公司在 AI 處理器領域的實力應繼續幫助英偉達實現強勁的銷售和收益，並推動進入其他業務類別。英偉達在未來三年仍面臨一些重大風險，但我認為對該股票最緊迫的風險因素是可能影響整個市場的宏觀經濟和地緣政治動態。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia could tempt value investors right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達現在可能吸引價值投資者</h2>
</div><p><strong>Jennifer Saibil:</strong> Nvidia had been a winning stock for years before it became a household name in the age of generative AI. Some uncertainties about the future, however, make it harder to determine where it could be in three years and whether it's worth buying today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>詹妮弗·賽比爾：</strong> 在生成 AI 時代，英偉達在過去幾年一直是一隻贏家股票。然而，關於未來的一些不確定性使得很難判斷它在三年後會處於何種位置，以及今天是否值得購買。</p>
</div><p>It was a success in the past for its gaming products, but it became a household name thanks to its dominant position in the quickly expanding generative AI sector. Explosive demand for its GPUs continues, with sales jumping 78% year over year in fiscal 2025's fourth quarter (ended Jan. 26) to $39 billion. Looking ahead, management guidance called for sales to increase 65% in fiscal 2026's first quarter. CEO Jensen Huang said the continuing incredible demand can be attributed to the company's newest generation of AI products under the Blackwell name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在過去因其遊戲產品而取得成功，但由於在快速擴展的生成 AI 領域的主導地位而成為家喻户曉的名字。對其 GPU 的需求激增，2025 財年第四季度（截至 1 月 26 日）的銷售同比增長 78%，達到 390 億美元。展望未來，管理層預測 2026 財年第一季度銷售將增長 65%。首席執行官黃仁勳表示，持續的巨大需求可歸因於公司最新一代的 AI 產品，名為 Blackwell。</p>
</div><p>Management noted how far-reaching and multilayered its opportunity is. Its products now serve multiple industries beyond internet and technology, and they are put to use in many more ways than before. Of particular relevance is the growing demand for GPU-driven data centers, or what Nvidia management calls AI factories. The entire paradigm of how a data center works is changing, with more emphasis on machine learning and generative AI, ramping up the data center market opportunity from $1 trillion to $2 trillion. This is of particular relevance because data centers now account for 88% of Nvidia's revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層指出，其機會是多層次和廣泛的。其產品現在服務於互聯網和技術以外的多個行業，並且以比以前更多的方式被使用。特別相關的是對 GPU 驅動的數據中心的需求不斷增長，或者説英偉達管理層稱之為 AI 工廠。數據中心的工作範式正在改變，更加重視機器學習和生成 AI，使數據中心市場的機會從 1 萬億美元提升到 2 萬億美元。這一點尤其重要，因為數據中心現在佔英偉達收入的 88%。</p>
</div><p>As with any new technology, new competition will try to copy a good thing and try to do it for a cheaper price. Top tech companies like <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong> are working to design specialized GPUs at a lower cost to drive at least some part of their operations, even if they still rely on Nvidia for the moment. That means even if the opportunity is growing, Nvidia's share of it might not increase proportionally, and more options for clients could also erode its pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與任何新技術一樣，新競爭者會試圖複製好的東西，並試圖以更低的價格做到這一點。像 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>蘋果</strong> 這樣的頂級科技公司正在努力設計專用 GPU，以更低的成本推動至少部分業務，即使他們目前仍依賴於英偉達。這意味着即使機會在增長，英偉達在其中的份額可能不會成比例增加，客户的更多選擇也可能削弱其定價能力。</p>
</div><p>Finally, it's interesting to add Nvidia's valuation to the analysis. It trades at a forward one-year P/E ratio of only 24. That could be an indication that the market thinks the company is slowing down. The drop in share price could be because the market is pricing in the effects of competition and saturation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，將英偉達的估值納入分析是有趣的。它的前瞻性一年市盈率僅為 24。這可能表明市場認為該公司正在放緩。股價下跌可能是因為市場正在定價競爭和飽和的影響。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, it could just be that the company is growing fast enough to keep pace with the market's expectations, implying that this growth stock is a bargain. That could mean it's undervalued, and the lag between the market's perception and the reality of what's coming could create a windfall for patient investors over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，這可能只是因為該公司增長足夠快，以跟上市場的預期，這意味着這隻成長股是個便宜貨。這可能意味着它被低估了，市場的認知與即將到來的現實之間的滯後可能會為耐心的投資者在未來三年創造意外之財。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Be in 3 Years?

- Nvidia 股票近期波動，受需求前景和關税政策影響。  
- 公司在 AI 處理器和軟件服務領域保持領先，銷售額大幅增長。  
- 儘管面臨競爭和市場不確定性，Nvidia 仍有潛力吸引價值投資者。

英偉達在三年後會處於什麼位置？