<p>想聽一個驚人的數字嗎？這裏是：208,300%。這大約是 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -1.33%）自 1997 年 5 月 15 日首次公開募股（IPO）以來所帶來的收益。如果你當時投資了 10,000 美元並持有這隻股票，今天你將擁有驚人的 208 萬美元。</p>
<p>亞馬遜未來無法再像公司仍然是新星時那樣實現炙手可熱的增長。然而，這並不意味着這隻股票不能為投資者帶來豐厚的回報。我預測亞馬遜在未來五年內可能會飆升 100%（或更多）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NjQvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLWFpci1qZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NjQvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLWFpci1qZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
<h2>親身經歷</h2>
<p>在五年內實現 100% 的回報對亞馬遜來説並不是新鮮事。這隻股票過去已經多次做到過。</p>
<p>最近，亞馬遜的股價在 2020 年至 2024 年間飆升了大約 137%。值得注意的是，這一大幅上漲是在 2022 年美聯儲迅速加息的情況下發生的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>一些五年期的表現甚至更加令人印象深刻。在 2015 年至 2019 年間，亞馬遜的股價幾乎增長了 500%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>當然，過去的表現並不一定能預測未來的表現。但我認為歷史可能會重演，儘管不一定完全相同。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜如何在 2030 年前翻倍或更多</h2>
<p>我對亞馬遜在未來五年內飆升 100% 或更多的預測並不是憑空想象。我相信有五個具體原因可以解釋這隻股票為何能夠實現如此高的回報。</p>
<p>首先，亞馬遜的股價仍然比之前的高點低約 15%。過去每次這樣的回調都為長期投資者提供了很好的買入機會。我懷疑這次也會如此。</p>
<p>其次（相關的），亞馬遜的估值在近年來是相當有吸引力的。這隻股票目前的市盈率（P/E）約為 33 倍。雖然這看起來有些昂貴，但這是自 2008 年市場崩潰以來亞馬遜的最低盈利倍數。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>第三，亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）在未來幾年應該有巨大的增長前景。我不認為生成性人工智能的順風會很快減弱。作為全球最大的雲服務提供商，AWS 有望在組織將 IT 支出轉向雲端以構建和部署生成性人工智能模型時，捕獲市場的顯著份額。</p>
<p>第四，儘管亞馬遜在電子商務方面取得了驚人的成功，但它仍然有很大的增長空間。首席執行官安迪·賈西在 2024 年 10 月的季度電話會議上指出，亞馬遜在全球零售市場的市場份額僅約為 1%。他認為，零售將在未來 10 到 20 年內逐漸從實體店轉向在線。我同意賈西的看法，並認為電子商務將繼續是亞馬遜的重要增長驅動力。</p>
<p>第五，我預計亞馬遜將通過擴展到新市場繼續實現增量增長。該公司目前正在通過其庫柏項目衞星發射和新醫療服務的推出來實現這一目標。</p>
<h2>什麼可能會破壞這個預測？</h2>
<p>儘管我真心相信亞馬遜的股票在未來五年內可能翻倍或更多，但我也坦誠我可能是錯的。什麼可能會破壞我的預測？我將提到兩個特別突出的威脅。</p>
<p>全球經濟長期下滑將使亞馬遜在 2030 年前實現 100% 回報變得更加困難。特朗普政府與中國的貿易緊張關係緩解可能降低衰退的可能性。然而，仍然存在重大不確定性。</p>
<p>如果組織未能從其在生成性人工智能上的投資中獲得良好的回報，AWS 的增長可能會受到影響，從而阻礙亞馬遜股票實現我的預測。我認為生成性人工智能更有可能帶來豐厚的回報，但我不會排除投資回報（ROI）低於預期的可能性。</p>
<p>我預測中最棘手的部分是時機。準確預測任何股票在五年內的表現是困難的。然而，在我看來，如果有任何股票具備在 2030 年前上漲 100% 的潛力，那就是亞馬遜。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜的股票在未來五年內可能會飆升 100% 或更多，這主要受到幾個因素的推動，包括其當前估值、亞馬遜雲服務（AWS）的增長前景以及電子商務的擴展。儘管過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但該股票之前曾實現顯著的漲幅。然而，潛在風險包括全球經濟衰退和生成式人工智能投資的表現不佳。總體而言，這一預測強調了亞馬遜強大的市場地位和增長機會</p>

<p>Want to hear a staggering number? Here it is: 208,300%. That's roughly the gain that <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.33%) has delivered since its initial public offering (IPO) on May 15, 1997. If you had invested $10,000 in the stock back then and held on for the wild ride, you'd have a whopping $20.8 million today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想聽一個驚人的數字嗎？這裏是：208,300%。這大約是 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -1.33%）自 1997 年 5 月 15 日首次公開募股（IPO）以來所帶來的收益。如果你當時投資了 10,000 美元並持有這隻股票，今天你將擁有驚人的 208 萬美元。</p>
</div><p>Amazon won't be able to generate the kind of sizzling growth in the future as it did when the company was still a rising star. However, that doesn't mean this stock can't still make investors a lot of money. I predict Amazon could surge by 100% (or more) in the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜未來無法再像公司仍然是新星時那樣實現炙手可熱的增長。然而，這並不意味着這隻股票不能為投資者帶來豐厚的回報。我預測亞馬遜在未來五年內可能會飆升 100%（或更多）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NjQvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLWFpci1qZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818964%2Famazon-prime-air-jet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
</div><h2>Been there, done that</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>親身經歷</h2>
</div><p>Delivering a 100% return in five years isn't covering new ground for Amazon. The stock has done it several times in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在五年內實現 100% 的回報對亞馬遜來説並不是新鮮事。這隻股票過去已經多次做到過。</p>
</div><p>Most recently, Amazon's share price soared roughly 137% between 2020 and 2024. Notably, this big gain came despite a steep sell-off in 2022 as the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，亞馬遜的股價在 2020 年至 2024 年間飆升了大約 137%。值得注意的是，這一大幅上漲是在 2022 年美聯儲迅速加息的情況下發生的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d01a4a04e9535131a451af51ecd89681.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Some five-year periods have been even more impressive. Between 2015 and 2019, Amazon's share price increased by nearly 500%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些五年期的表現甚至更加令人印象深刻。在 2015 年至 2019 年間，亞馬遜的股價幾乎增長了 500%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/aaeb81b5f0772f1a8a696706dff0735f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Granted, past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future performance. But I think history might rhyme, if not repeat itself, for Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，過去的表現並不一定能預測未來的表現。但我認為歷史可能會重演，儘管不一定完全相同。</p>
</div><h2>How Amazon could double or more by 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜如何在 2030 年前翻倍或更多</h2>
</div><p>My prediction about Amazon surging 100% or more in the next five years wasn't just plucked out of the air. I believe there are five specific reasons why the stock could deliver such a lofty return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我對亞馬遜在未來五年內飆升 100% 或更多的預測並不是憑空想象。我相信有五個具體原因可以解釋這隻股票為何能夠實現如此高的回報。</p>
</div><p>First, Amazon is still around 15% below its previous high. Every such pullback in the past has offered a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. I suspect this one will be, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，亞馬遜的股價仍然比之前的高點低約 15%。過去每次這樣的回調都為長期投資者提供了很好的買入機會。我懷疑這次也會如此。</p>
</div><p>Second (and on a related note), Amazon's valuation is as attractive as it's been in years. The stock currently trades at a trailing-12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 33. That might seem pricey, but it's the lowest earnings multiple for Amazon since the market meltdown of 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次（相關的），亞馬遜的估值在近年來是相當有吸引力的。這隻股票目前的市盈率（P/E）約為 33 倍。雖然這看起來有些昂貴，但這是自 2008 年市場崩潰以來亞馬遜的最低盈利倍數。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6f522ce892ddefafb45d61081cdc56a1.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Third, Amazon Web Services (AWS) should have tremendous growth prospects over the next few years. I don't foresee the generative AI tailwind waning anytime soon. As the largest cloud service provider in the world, AWS is poised to capture a significant chunk of the market as organizations move their IT spending to the cloud to build and deploy generative AI models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）在未來幾年應該有巨大的增長前景。我不認為生成性人工智能的順風會很快減弱。作為全球最大的雲服務提供商，AWS 有望在組織將 IT 支出轉向雲端以構建和部署生成性人工智能模型時，捕獲市場的顯著份額。</p>
</div><p>Fourth, despite Amazon's amazing success in e-commerce, it still has a lot of room to grow. CEO Andy Jassy noted in the company's October 2024 quarterly call that Amazon only has around a 1% market share of the global retail market. He believes that retail will steadily shift from physical stores to online over the next 10 to 20 years. I agree with Jassy and view e-commerce as a continued major growth driver for Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第四，儘管亞馬遜在電子商務方面取得了驚人的成功，但它仍然有很大的增長空間。首席執行官安迪·賈西在 2024 年 10 月的季度電話會議上指出，亞馬遜在全球零售市場的市場份額僅約為 1%。他認為，零售將在未來 10 到 20 年內逐漸從實體店轉向在線。我同意賈西的看法，並認為電子商務將繼續是亞馬遜的重要增長驅動力。</p>
</div><p>Fifth, I expect Amazon to keep churning out incremental growth by expanding into new markets. The company is doing this today with its Project Kuiper satellite launches and introduction of new healthcare services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第五，我預計亞馬遜將通過擴展到新市場繼續實現增量增長。該公司目前正在通過其庫柏項目衞星發射和新醫療服務的推出來實現這一目標。</p>
</div><h2>What could derail this prediction?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼可能會破壞這個預測？</h2>
</div><p>Although I genuinely believe Amazon stock could double or more over the next five years, I readily admit that I could be wrong. What could derail my prediction? I'll mention two threats that especially stand out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管我真心相信亞馬遜的股票在未來五年內可能翻倍或更多，但我也坦誠我可能是錯的。什麼可能會破壞我的預測？我將提到兩個特別突出的威脅。</p>
</div><p>A prolonged global economic decline would make it much more difficult for Amazon to generate a 100% return by 2030. The Trump administration's relaxation of trade tensions with China could reduce the likelihood of a recession. However, significant uncertainty remains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球經濟長期下滑將使亞馬遜在 2030 年前實現 100% 回報變得更加困難。特朗普政府與中國的貿易緊張關係緩解可能降低衰退的可能性。然而，仍然存在重大不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Should organizations fail to realize solid returns from their investment in generative AI, AWS' growth could suffer and prevent Amazon stock from fulfilling my prediction. I think it's more likely that generative AI will pay off handsomely, but I won't rule out the possibility that return on investments (ROIs) could be less than desired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果組織未能從其在生成性人工智能上的投資中獲得良好的回報，AWS 的增長可能會受到影響，從而阻礙亞馬遜股票實現我的預測。我認為生成性人工智能更有可能帶來豐厚的回報，但我不會排除投資回報（ROI）低於預期的可能性。</p>
</div><p>The trickiest part of my prediction is the timing. It's difficult to accurately predict how any stock will perform over five years. In my opinion, though, if any stock has what it takes to jump 100% by 2030, it's Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我預測中最棘手的部分是時機。準確預測任何股票在五年內的表現是困難的。然而，在我看來，如果有任何股票具備在 2030 年前上漲 100% 的潛力，那就是亞馬遜。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Amazon Could Surge by 100% in the Next 5 Years

- 亞馬遜自 1997 年 IPO 以來增長了 208,300%。  
- 預計未來五年內，亞馬遜股價可能上漲 100% 以上。  
- 主要原因包括估值吸引、AWS 增長潛力及電商市場份額提升。  

預測：亞馬遜可能在未來五年內上漲 100%