<p>在一個充滿地緣政治緊張、利率波動和供應鏈中斷的一年裏，投資者們正在努力尋找能夠在混亂中實現 <strong>持續增長</strong> 的公司。<strong>ADP（自動數據處理）</strong> 和 <strong>財捷</strong> 就是這樣的公司，它們的軟件驅動模型和長期利好因素證明比建築材料等資本密集型行業更具韌性。儘管建築股票面臨監管壓力和現金流波動，這兩家科技領軍企業正在利用可防禦的護城河來推動可預測的回報。以下是它們為何應位於每位投資者名單之首的原因。</p>
<h3><strong>建築材料陷阱：波動與監管</strong></h3>
<p>建築材料行業，曾是基礎設施支出的典範，如今面臨着一場完美的風險風暴。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>監管壓力</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>鋼鐵和鋁的關税、環境合規成本（例如，碳税）以及地緣政治貿易爭端正在擠壓利潤。例如，從中國進口材料的美國公司面臨的關税可能會使 <strong>項目成本增加 5-10%</strong>，而熟練工種的勞動力短缺則延誤項目並增加開支。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>價格波動</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>鋼鐵、銅和水泥的商品價格容易出現突然波動。智利的一次礦山關閉或中國經濟放緩都可能擾亂供應鏈，造成不可預測的現金流。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>週期性需求</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>住宅建設與利率息息相關，而利率仍接近歷史高位。同時，基礎設施項目往往依賴於政府資金——這遠不如 SaaS 企業的經常性收入流可預測。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>ADP 和財捷：為穩定而生</strong></h3>
<p>這兩家公司在 <strong>人力資本管理（HCM）</strong> 和財務軟件領域蓬勃發展，這些領域具有 <strong>經常性收入模型</strong>、高轉換成本和長期增長驅動因素。</p>
<h4><strong>ADP：可預測現金流的引擎</strong></h4>
<ul>
<li><strong>2025 年第二季度業績</strong>：收入增長 <strong>8% 至 50.5 億美元</strong>，由於規模和自動化，利潤率擴大。調整後的每股收益增長 <strong>10%</strong>，自由現金流（儘管有股票回購）依然強勁。</li>
<li><strong>可防禦的護城河</strong>：ADP 的 <strong>Lyric HCM 平台</strong> 整合了薪資、合規和勞動力分析，創造了粘性的客户關係。超過 100 萬客户依賴其生態系統，使競爭對手難以取代。</li>
<li><strong>增長驅動因素</strong>：與 Fiserv 的合作以及對 Workforce Software 的收購正在擴大其可服務市場。</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>財捷：主導小型企業雲</strong></h4>
<ul>
<li><strong>第二季度激增</strong>：收入躍升 <strong>17% 至 40 億美元</strong>，得益於 <strong>QuickBooks Online（增長 22%）</strong> 和 Credit Karma 的借貸平台。非 GAAP 利潤率達到 <strong>32%</strong>，凸顯盈利能力。</li>
<li><strong>護城河強度</strong>：財捷的 <strong>人工智能驅動工具</strong>（例如，自動報税、信用評分優化）創造了依賴性。其 25 億美元的現金和 36 億美元的回購餘額顯示出信心。</li>
<li><strong>未來保障</strong>：向遠程工作和零工經濟平台的轉變正在推動對其薪資和財務管理解決方案的需求。</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>為何現在是投資的時機</strong></h3>
<ol>
<li><strong>不確定經濟中的防禦性行業</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>這兩家公司滿足 <strong>非可選擇性需求</strong>——薪資處理和税務合規，即使在經濟衰退期間也保持穩定。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>高資本回報</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>ADP 的股本回報率（ROE）為 <strong>28%</strong>，財捷的 <strong>24% ROE</strong> 反映了高效的資本配置，而建築公司則與重型機械投資緊密相關。</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>股息紀律</strong>：</li>
</ol>
<p>ADP 的 <strong>52 年股息增長記錄</strong> 和財捷的 <strong>16% 股息增長</strong> 表明財務健康。相比之下，建築股票在經濟低迷時往往會削減股息。</p>
<h3><strong>結論：穩定的收益，更穩定的股票</strong></h3>
<p>在 2025 年動盪的市場中，ADP 和財捷提供了 <strong>投資者渴望的兩樣東西</strong>：</p>
<p>- <strong>可預測性</strong>：它們的經常性收入模型和高客户留存率（例如，ADP 的客户留存率為 92%）減少了收益驚喜。</p>
<p>- <strong>可防禦的護城河</strong>：轉換成本和生態系統優勢（例如，QuickBooks 與銀行的整合）使競爭對手難以接近。</p>
<p><strong>立即行動</strong>：這些股票不僅是對軟件的投資——<strong>它們是對未來工作和金融的投資</strong>。隨着估值仍然合理（ADP 的市盈率為 31，而其 5 年平均為 35）和財捷的前瞻市盈率為 28，風險回報非常誘人。建築材料在繁榮時期可能耀眼，但在 2025 年的現實中，<strong>穩定總是勝過波動</strong>。</p>
<p><strong>堅定投資。</strong></p>

自動數據處理

財捷

<p>在一個受到地緣政治緊張局勢和利率波動影響的動盪市場中，ADP 和財捷成為穩定的投資選擇。這兩家公司利用軟件驅動的模式，擁有經常性收入，與面臨監管和現金流挑戰的建築材料行業形成鮮明對比。ADP 報告收入增長 8%，達到 50.5 億美元，而財捷的收入激增 17%，達到 40 億美元。它們強勁的現金流、高股本回報率和持續的股息增長使它們成為 2025 年具有吸引力的投資，強調了可預測性和穩固的市場地位</p>

<p>In a year marked by geopolitical tensions, fluctuating interest rates, and supply chain disruptions, investors are scrambling to find companies that can deliver <strong>consistent growth</strong> amid chaos. Look no further than <strong>ADP (Automatic Data Processing)</strong> and <strong>Intuit</strong>, whose software-driven models and secular tailwinds are proving far more resilient than capital-intensive industries like construction materials. While construction stocks face regulatory headwinds and cash flow volatility, these two tech leaders are leveraging defensible moats to power predictable returns. Here's why they should be at the top of every investor's list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一個充滿地緣政治緊張、利率波動和供應鏈中斷的一年裏，投資者們正在努力尋找能夠在混亂中實現 <strong>持續增長</strong> 的公司。<strong>ADP（自動數據處理）</strong> 和 <strong>財捷</strong> 就是這樣的公司，它們的軟件驅動模型和長期利好因素證明比建築材料等資本密集型行業更具韌性。儘管建築股票面臨監管壓力和現金流波動，這兩家科技領軍企業正在利用可防禦的護城河來推動可預測的回報。以下是它們為何應位於每位投資者名單之首的原因。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Construction Materials Trap: Volatility and Regulation</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>建築材料陷阱：波動與監管</strong></h3>
</div><p>The construction materials sector, once a poster child for infrastructure spending, now faces a perfect storm of risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建築材料行業，曾是基礎設施支出的典範，如今面臨着一場完美的風險風暴。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Regulatory Overhang</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>監管壓力</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Tariffs on steel and aluminum, environmental compliance costs (e.g., carbon taxes), and geopolitical trade disputes are squeezing margins. For instance, U.S. firms importing materials from China face tariffs that can add <strong>5–10% to project costs</strong>, while labor shortages in skilled trades delay projects and inflate expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋼鐵和鋁的關税、環境合規成本（例如，碳税）以及地緣政治貿易爭端正在擠壓利潤。例如，從中國進口材料的美國公司面臨的關税可能會使 <strong>項目成本增加 5-10%</strong>，而熟練工種的勞動力短缺則延誤項目並增加開支。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Price Volatility</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>價格波動</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Commodity prices for steel, copper, and cement are prone to sudden swings. A single mine closure in Chile or a Chinese economic slowdown could disrupt supply chains, creating unpredictable cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋼鐵、銅和水泥的商品價格容易出現突然波動。智利的一次礦山關閉或中國經濟放緩都可能擾亂供應鏈，造成不可預測的現金流。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Cyclical Demand</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>週期性需求</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Residential construction is tied to interest rates, which are still near historic highs. Meanwhile, infrastructure projects often depend on government funding—far less predictable than the recurring revenue streams of SaaS businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住宅建設與利率息息相關，而利率仍接近歷史高位。同時，基礎設施項目往往依賴於政府資金——這遠不如 SaaS 企業的經常性收入流可預測。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-1abb4ce19fd38001.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>ADP and Intuit: Built for Stability</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>ADP 和財捷：為穩定而生</strong></h3>
</div><p>Both companies thrive in <strong>human capital management (HCM)</strong> and financial software, sectors with <strong>recurring revenue models</strong>, high switching costs, and secular growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩家公司在 <strong>人力資本管理（HCM）</strong> 和財務軟件領域蓬勃發展，這些領域具有 <strong>經常性收入模型</strong>、高轉換成本和長期增長驅動因素。</p>
</div><h4><strong>ADP: The Engine of Predictable Cash Flow</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>ADP：可預測現金流的引擎</strong></h4>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q2 2025 Results</strong>: Revenue rose <strong>8% to $5.05 billion</strong>, with margins expanding due to scale and automation. Adjusted EPS grew <strong>10%</strong>, and free cash flow (despite share buybacks) remains robust.</li>
<li><strong>Defensible Moat</strong>: ADP's <strong>Lyric HCM platform</strong> integrates payroll, compliance, and workforce analytics, creating sticky customer relationships. Over 1 million clients rely on its ecosystem, making it hard for competitors to displace.</li>
<li><strong>Growth Drivers</strong>: Partnerships with Fiserv and the Workforce Software acquisition are expanding its addressable market.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>2025 年第二季度業績</strong>：收入增長 <strong>8% 至 50.5 億美元</strong>，由於規模和自動化，利潤率擴大。調整後的每股收益增長 <strong>10%</strong>，自由現金流（儘管有股票回購）依然強勁。</li>
<li><strong>可防禦的護城河</strong>：ADP 的 <strong>Lyric HCM 平台</strong> 整合了薪資、合規和勞動力分析，創造了粘性的客户關係。超過 100 萬客户依賴其生態系統，使競爭對手難以取代。</li>
<li><strong>增長驅動因素</strong>：與 Fiserv 的合作以及對 Workforce Software 的收購正在擴大其可服務市場。</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Intuit: Dominating the Small Business Cloud</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>財捷：主導小型企業雲</strong></h4>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q2 Surge</strong>: Revenue jumped <strong>17% to $4.0 billion</strong>, fueled by <strong>QuickBooks Online (22% growth)</strong> and Credit Karma's lending platform. Non-GAAP margins hit <strong>32%</strong>, underscoring profitability.</li>
<li><strong>Moat Strength</strong>: Intuit's <strong>AI-driven tools</strong> (e.g., automated tax filing, credit score optimization) create dependency. Its $2.5 billion in cash and $3.6 billion remaining in buybacks signal confidence.</li>
<li><strong>Future Proofing</strong>: The shift to remote work and gig economy platforms is boosting demand for its payroll and financial management solutions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>第二季度激增</strong>：收入躍升 <strong>17% 至 40 億美元</strong>，得益於 <strong>QuickBooks Online（增長 22%）</strong> 和 Credit Karma 的借貸平台。非 GAAP 利潤率達到 <strong>32%</strong>，凸顯盈利能力。</li>
<li><strong>護城河強度</strong>：財捷的 <strong>人工智能驅動工具</strong>（例如，自動報税、信用評分優化）創造了依賴性。其 25 億美元的現金和 36 億美元的回購餘額顯示出信心。</li>
<li><strong>未來保障</strong>：向遠程工作和零工經濟平台的轉變正在推動對其薪資和財務管理解決方案的需求。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>Why Now Is the Time to Invest</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>為何現在是投資的時機</strong></h3>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Defensive Sectors in an Uncertain Economy</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>不確定經濟中的防禦性行業</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Both companies serve <strong>non-discretionary needs</strong>—payroll processing and tax compliance—that remain steady even during recessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩家公司滿足 <strong>非可選擇性需求</strong>——薪資處理和税務合規，即使在經濟衰退期間也保持穩定。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>High Return on Capital</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>高資本回報</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>ADP's return on equity (ROE) of <strong>28%</strong> and Intuit's <strong>24% ROE</strong> reflect efficient capital allocation, unlike construction firms tied to heavy machinery investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 的股本回報率（ROE）為 <strong>28%</strong>，財捷的 <strong>24% ROE</strong> 反映了高效的資本配置，而建築公司則與重型機械投資緊密相關。</p>
</div><ol>
<li><strong>Dividend Discipline</strong>:</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li><strong>股息紀律</strong>：</li>
</ol>
</div><p>ADP's <strong>52-year dividend growth streak</strong> and Intuit's <strong>16% dividend hike</strong> signal financial health. Compare this to construction stocks, where dividends are often cut during downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ADP 的 <strong>52 年股息增長記錄</strong> 和財捷的 <strong>16% 股息增長</strong> 表明財務健康。相比之下，建築股票在經濟低迷時往往會削減股息。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Bottom Line: Steady Earnings, Steadier Stocks</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>結論：穩定的收益，更穩定的股票</strong></h3>
</div><p>In 2025's volatile market, ADP and Intuit offer <strong>two things investors crave</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年動盪的市場中，ADP 和財捷提供了 <strong>投資者渴望的兩樣東西</strong>：</p>
</div><p>- <strong>Predictability</strong>: Their recurring revenue models and high retention rates (e.g., ADP's 92% client retention) reduce earnings surprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- <strong>可預測性</strong>：它們的經常性收入模型和高客户留存率（例如，ADP 的客户留存率為 92%）減少了收益驚喜。</p>
</div><p>- <strong>Defensible Moats</strong>: Switching costs and ecosystem advantages (e.g., QuickBooks' integration with banks) keep competitors at bay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- <strong>可防禦的護城河</strong>：轉換成本和生態系統優勢（例如，QuickBooks 與銀行的整合）使競爭對手難以接近。</p>
</div><p><strong>Act now</strong>: These stocks are not just bets on software— <strong>they're bets on the future of work and finance</strong>. With valuations still reasonable (ADP's P/E of 31 vs. its 5-year average of 35) and Intuit's forward P/E of 28, the risk-reward is compelling. Construction materials may dazzle in boom times, but in 2025's reality, <strong>steady beats volatile every time</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>立即行動</strong>：這些股票不僅是對軟件的投資——<strong>它們是對未來工作和金融的投資</strong>。隨着估值仍然合理（ADP 的市盈率為 31，而其 5 年平均為 35）和財捷的前瞻市盈率為 28，風險回報非常誘人。建築材料在繁榮時期可能耀眼，但在 2025 年的現實中，<strong>穩定總是勝過波動</strong>。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invest with conviction.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>堅定投資。</strong></p>
</div>

為什麼自動數據處理和財捷是 2025 年動盪市場中最穩健的投資選擇