<ul>
<li><em>鯨魚積累上升，MVRV 背離信號顯示市場結構更加成熟。</em></li>
<li><em>空頭平倉和趨勢線支撐使 BTC 有望上漲至$114K.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>比特幣 [BTC] 最近創下了超過$108K 的新歷史高點，但其 MVRV 比率仍顯著低於之前週期（2013 年、2017 年、2021 年）記錄的峯值，通常超過 3.5。</p>
<p>這種背離主要是由於實現市值的上升，表明更多的幣現在由成本基礎較高的強勢持有者持有。</p>
<p>因此，在過去 MVRV 峯值期間通常出現的獲利了結行為並未出現。這一變化反映了市場的更深層次成熟，並表明新資本正在以更高的價格吸收供應。</p>
<h2><strong>鯨魚在流出消失時悄然積累嗎？</strong></h2>
<p>大持有者的行為發生了急劇變化。在過去一週，流入激增超過 11,800%，而流出下降超過 91%。</p>
<p>這種鮮明的對比揭示了一個淨積累階段，大玩家正在將資產轉移到持有錢包中。這種行為反映了強烈的信心，並降低了近期賣壓的可能性。</p>
<p>此外，缺乏相應的流出表明這些鯨魚並不是在交易所之間輪換資本，而是為了長期持有而積累。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png"/></p>
<p>來源：IntoTheBlock</p>
<h2><strong>鏈上基礎在供應收緊中加強</strong></h2>
<p>交易所儲備下降了 2.14%，降至$2623 億。這一下降表明在集中平台上的幣減少，這通常會導致賣方壓力減小。</p>
<p>當儲備與價格上漲同步下降時，通常表明持有者選擇自我保管，而不是計劃出售。</p>
<p>與此同時，BTC NVT 金叉下降超過 12%，降至 0.43，表明估值與網絡活動良好對齊。</p>
<p>供應收縮與健康的使用情況的結合支持了可持續的反彈，且幾乎沒有投機過熱的跡象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<h2><strong>槓桿交易者在重置嗎？</strong></h2>
<p>BTC Binance 平倉圖顯示在$108K 以上有大量空頭平倉，表明隨着價格上漲，空頭正在被擠壓。</p>
<p>在$111K 和$114K 之間有顯著的平倉集羣，任何進一步的上漲都可能引發連鎖退出。</p>
<p>然而，未平倉合約下降了 5.26%，表明整體投機壓力正在減弱。這一重置可能會清除過度槓桿的交易者，並減少突然反轉的可能性。</p>
<p>如果 BTC 保持當前趨勢，這一再平衡期可能為未來更穩定的上漲動能奠定基礎。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Coinglass</p>
<h2><strong>BTC 能否在尊重趨勢線的同時延續反彈？</strong></h2>
<p>BTC 在新聞發佈時繼續在 4 小時圖上交易於一條清晰的上升趨勢線之上，目前在$107.7K 附近反彈，接近 1.618 斐波那契水平。</p>
<p>這一支撐已被測試但未被突破，表明強烈的買入興趣。</p>
<p>只要價格行動保持在趨勢線之上，牛市結構仍然有效。如果多頭突破$110.8K 並清除$114K 的阻力，進一步擴展至$115.9K 的可能性將增加。</p>
<p>然而，若跌破趨勢線，則可能使該設置失效，並觸發短期修正至$105K 或更低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>BTC 當前的結構反映出健康的上升趨勢，受到機構積累、供應收縮和投機壓力減小的支持。</p>
<p>趨勢線繼續作為堅實的基礎，而空頭平倉和 NVT 下降進一步增強了上漲動能。只要支撐保持在$107.7K 以上，比特幣似乎有望下一個目標為$111K–$114K。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣最近的上漲得益於鯨魚的積累和更成熟的市場結構，目標價為 114,000 美元。MVRV 背離表明強勢持幣者在持有比特幣，而交易所儲備減少，降低了賣方壓力。空頭平倉信號顯示空頭被擠壓，穩定的趨勢線支持進一步的價格上漲。只要比特幣維持在 107,700 美元以上，就有可能向 111,000 美元至 114,000 美元增長，反映出機構的興趣和減少的投機壓力</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Whale accumulation rises as MVRV divergence signals a more mature market structure.</em></li>
<li><em>Short liquidations and trendline support position BTC for a move to $114K.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>鯨魚積累上升，MVRV 背離信號顯示市場結構更加成熟。</em></li>
<li><em>空頭平倉和趨勢線支撐使 BTC 有望上漲至$114K.</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC] recently set a new all-time high above $108K, yet its MVRV ratio remains significantly below the peaks recorded in previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), which often exceeded 3.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣 [BTC] 最近創下了超過$108K 的新歷史高點，但其 MVRV 比率仍顯著低於之前週期（2013 年、2017 年、2021 年）記錄的峯值，通常超過 3.5。</p>
</div><p>This divergence is largely due to the rising Realized Cap, suggesting that more coins are now held by strong hands with higher cost bases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種背離主要是由於實現市值的上升，表明更多的幣現在由成本基礎較高的強勢持有者持有。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the typical profit-taking behavior seen during past MVRV spikes hasn’t materialized. This shift reflects deeper market maturity and indicates that new capital is absorbing supply at higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在過去 MVRV 峯值期間通常出現的獲利了結行為並未出現。這一變化反映了市場的更深層次成熟，並表明新資本正在以更高的價格吸收供應。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Are whales quietly accumulating as outflows vanish?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>鯨魚在流出消失時悄然積累嗎？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Large holder behavior has shifted sharply. Over the last week, inflows surged over 11,800%, while outflows dropped more than 91%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大持有者的行為發生了急劇變化。在過去一週，流入激增超過 11,800%，而流出下降超過 91%。</p>
</div><p>This stark contrast reveals a net accumulation phase, where big players are moving assets into holding wallets. Such behavior reflects strong conviction and reduces the likelihood of near-term sell pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種鮮明的對比揭示了一個淨積累階段，大玩家正在將資產轉移到持有錢包中。這種行為反映了強烈的信心，並降低了近期賣壓的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the absence of corresponding outflows suggests these whales are not rotating capital between exchanges but are instead accumulating for longer-term exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，缺乏相應的流出表明這些鯨魚並不是在交易所之間輪換資本，而是為了長期持有而積累。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091716.png"/></p>
<p>Source: IntoTheBlock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：IntoTheBlock</p>
</div><h2><strong>On-chain foundation strengthening amid tighter supply</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>鏈上基礎在供應收緊中加強</strong></h2>
</div><p>Exchange reserves have declined by 2.14%, dropping to $262.3 billion. This drop signals that fewer coins remain on centralized platforms, which often leads to reduced sell-side pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易所儲備下降了 2.14%，降至$2623 億。這一下降表明在集中平台上的幣減少，這通常會導致賣方壓力減小。</p>
</div><p>When reserves fall in tandem with rising prices, it typically suggests that holders are opting for self-custody instead of planning to sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當儲備與價格上漲同步下降時，通常表明持有者選擇自我保管，而不是計劃出售。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the BTC NVT Golden Cross has dropped more than 12% to 0.43, indicating that valuation is aligning well with network activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，BTC NVT 金叉下降超過 12%，降至 0.43，表明估值與網絡活動良好對齊。</p>
</div><p>This combination of supply contraction and healthy utility supports a sustainable rally with fewer signs of speculative overheating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應收縮與健康的使用情況的結合支持了可持續的反彈，且幾乎沒有投機過熱的跡象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-NVT-Golden-Cross-7.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><h2><strong>Are leveraged traders resetting?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>槓桿交易者在重置嗎？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The BTC Binance liquidation map shows a concentration of short liquidations above $108K, signaling that bears are being squeezed as price climbs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC Binance 平倉圖顯示在$108K 以上有大量空頭平倉，表明隨着價格上漲，空頭正在被擠壓。</p>
</div><p>With significant liquidation clusters between $111K and $114K, any further upside could trigger cascading exits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在$111K 和$114K 之間有顯著的平倉集羣，任何進一步的上漲都可能引發連鎖退出。</p>
</div><p>However, Open Interest has dropped by 5.26%, suggesting that overall speculative pressure is cooling. This reset may flush out overleveraged traders and reduce the chance of sudden reversals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，未平倉合約下降了 5.26%，表明整體投機壓力正在減弱。這一重置可能會清除過度槓桿的交易者，並減少突然反轉的可能性。</p>
</div><p>If BTC maintains its current trend, this period of rebalancing may lay the groundwork for more stable bullish momentum ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 BTC 保持當前趨勢，這一再平衡期可能為未來更穩定的上漲動能奠定基礎。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-24-091613.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Coinglass</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can BTC extend its rally while respecting the trendline?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>BTC 能否在尊重趨勢線的同時延續反彈？</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTC continued to trade above a clean ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart at press time, currently bouncing near the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $107.7K.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 在新聞發佈時繼續在 4 小時圖上交易於一條清晰的上升趨勢線之上，目前在$107.7K 附近反彈，接近 1.618 斐波那契水平。</p>
</div><p>This support has been tested but not broken, indicating strong buying interest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一支撐已被測試但未被突破，表明強烈的買入興趣。</p>
</div><p>So long as price action stays above the trendline, the bullish structure remains valid. If bulls push past $110.8K and clear resistance at $114K, further expansion toward $115.9K becomes likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要價格行動保持在趨勢線之上，牛市結構仍然有效。如果多頭突破$110.8K 並清除$114K 的阻力，進一步擴展至$115.9K 的可能性將增加。</p>
</div><p>However, a break below the trendline could invalidate the setup and trigger a short-term correction to $105K or lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，若跌破趨勢線，則可能使該設置失效，並觸發短期修正至$105K 或更低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/BTCUSD_2025-05-24_09-21-24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>BTC’s current structure reflects a healthy uptrend supported by institutional accumulation, shrinking supply, and reduced speculative pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 當前的結構反映出健康的上升趨勢，受到機構積累、供應收縮和投機壓力減小的支持。</p>
</div><p>The trendline continues to act as a firm base, while short liquidations and declining NVT reinforce upward momentum. As long as support holds above $107.7K, Bitcoin appears positioned to target $111K–$114K next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趨勢線繼續作為堅實的基礎，而空頭平倉和 NVT 下降進一步增強了上漲動能。只要支撐保持在$107.7K 以上，比特幣似乎有望下一個目標為$111K–$114K。</p>
</div>

比特幣的上升趨勢目標可能達到 11.4 萬美元——支持 BTC 上漲的兩個關鍵因素