<p>傳奇投資者邁克爾·伯裏以進行大額投資而聞名。事實上，他因成為最早認識到 2008 年次貸危機的投資者之一而成名，他通過購買次級抵押貸款支持證券的信用違約掉期，重倉做空房地產市場。信用違約掉期本質上就像是對違約的保險，因此當基礎的抵押貸款支持證券崩潰時，伯裏獲得了豐厚的利潤。他後來在電影《大空頭》中由克里斯蒂安·貝爾飾演。</p>
<p>因此，當伯裏在第一季度出售了他整個投資組合時，除了一個股票：化妝品公司 <strong>雅詩蘭黛</strong>（EL -0.96%），這引起了相當大的關注。事實上，他在這一季度加倍了對該股票的持倉。</p>
<p>不過，伯裏並沒有止步於此。他不僅出售了整個股票組合，還購買了 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和幾隻中國 ADR 的看跌期權，包括 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>、<strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京東</strong> 等。通過購買看跌期權，他是在押注這些股票的價格會下跌。</p>
<p>這可能是由於對貿易緊張局勢和關税的不確定性，目前尚不清楚伯裏是否已經平倉這些頭寸。如果他迅速平倉看跌期權，他將在市場下跌中獲得不錯的利潤。</p>
<p>不過，對於今天的投資者來説，更相關的問題是，為什麼伯裏對雅詩蘭黛如此看好，而他卻願意出售投資組合中的其他所有股票，並基本上對美國和中國市場做空。</p>
<h2>美在觀者眼中</h2>
<p>對於不熟悉雅詩蘭黛的人來説，它是一家全球美容集團，擁有多個化妝品、護膚品、香水和護髮產品品牌。它主要在高端市場運營，將其產品組合定位為一系列高檔奢侈美容品牌。除了其自有品牌外，它還擁有 Clinique、MAC、Bobbi Brown、La Mer、Tom Ford Beauty 等品牌。</p>
<p>雅詩蘭黛的許多困境源於其對中國和免税零售市場的依賴。由於疫情後中國消費者支出恢復緩慢，該公司的銷售在中國大幅下滑。然而，這些問題在其全球旅行零售業務中表現得更加明顯。</p>
<p>雅詩蘭黛的增長戰略很大一部分是通過在亞洲和歐洲的機場及其他免税商店銷售其美容產品，這些地方是中國遊客常去的。然而，COVID-19 對這一業務造成了重大影響，中國的旅行恢復緩慢。該公司試圖轉向中國的免税中心——海南島，這是一個更本地化的中國旅遊區域。然而，中國消費者仍然保持謹慎，導致該地區庫存過剩。</p>
<p>這反過來導致了折扣，造成了利潤壓縮。對於奢侈品牌來説，折扣可能是一個大錯誤，因為這會在消費者眼中貶值品牌，並疏遠其核心客户。這也可能使客户習慣於等待產品打折時再購買。</p>
<p>與此同時，在美國，雅詩蘭黛面臨來自新興高端美容品牌的競爭加劇。像 Drunk Elephant 這樣的品牌通過提供時尚、注重成分的產品，吸引了年輕成年人和青少年，建立了強大的追隨者。而雅詩蘭黛的品牌在年輕消費者眼中往往被視為 “媽媽的品牌”，而不是他們自己的品牌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>有趣的是，在第一季度之前，伯裏曾將其投資組合定位為受益於中國消費者需求潛在復甦。當時，他在主要的中國電子商務公司中持有多頭頭寸，包括阿里巴巴、PDD Holdings 和京東，隨後卻反轉方向，通過購買看跌期權對這些股票做空。</p>
<p>儘管他的短期行為如此，伯裏可能仍然相信中國消費者的長期復甦。這可能是他為何維持並增加在雅詩蘭黛持倉的一個重要原因。如果當前中國的旅行和消費困境被證明是週期性的，該公司的銷售和盈利可能會迅速反彈。</p>
<p>畢竟，雅詩蘭黛仍然擁有一系列強大的奢侈品牌，具有強大的全球分銷能力。它目前實施了所謂的利潤恢復和增長計劃，以轉變其運營模式，資助銷售增長的迴歸，並恢復穩健的兩位數調整後營業利潤率。作為該計劃的一部分，它還在減少成本和裁員。</p>
<p>在銷售下降 10% 和調整後營業收入在上個季度暴跌 27% 的情況下，該公司仍然面臨艱鉅的任務。最大的困境仍然是零售旅行，上一季度有機收入下降 28%，預計在當前季度將進一步下降。其零售旅行業務現在僅佔其整體業務的低十幾個百分點。然而，它已經能夠顯著減少其過高的庫存，並相信自己在未來處於更好的位置。</p>
<h2>投資者應該購買雅詩蘭黛股票嗎？</h2>
<p>雅詩蘭黛的股票在 2026 財年的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 30 倍（截至 2026 年 6 月），表面上並不便宜。然而，過去幾年盈利大幅下降，因此如果它能夠恢復一些失去的盈利，股票可能會有很大的上漲空間。</p>
<p>公司仍然需要完成很多工作，但對於耐心的投資者來説，這可能是一隻值得考慮的股票。伯裏有着出色的業績記錄，所以我不會對他做空。</p>

雅詩蘭黛

<p>傳奇投資者邁克爾·布里（Michael Burry）因出售其全部投資組合而成為頭條新聞，唯獨保留了一隻股票：雅詩蘭黛（Estee Lauder），並將其持倉加倍。布里還購買了英偉達（Nvidia）和幾隻中國 ADR 的看跌期權，因貿易緊張局勢對這些股票進行做空。雅詩蘭黛面臨挑戰，尤其是在中國和旅行零售市場，但布里的看漲態度可能表明他對中國消費者需求長期復甦的信心。該公司正在實施利潤恢復計劃，以應對零售旅行領域銷售和盈利下降的局面</p>

<p>Legendary investor Michael Burry is known for making big bets. In fact, he became famous for being one of the first investors to recognize the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and he bet heavily against the housing market by buying credit default swaps on subprime mortgage-backed securities. Credit default swaps essentially act like insurance against default, so when the underlying mortgage-backed securities collapsed, Burry profited handsomely. He was later portrayed in the movie <em>The Big Short</em> by Christian Bale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳奇投資者邁克爾·伯裏以進行大額投資而聞名。事實上，他因成為最早認識到 2008 年次貸危機的投資者之一而成名，他通過購買次級抵押貸款支持證券的信用違約掉期，重倉做空房地產市場。信用違約掉期本質上就像是對違約的保險，因此當基礎的抵押貸款支持證券崩潰時，伯裏獲得了豐厚的利潤。他後來在電影《大空頭》中由克里斯蒂安·貝爾飾演。</p>
</div><p>As such, it was quite notable when it was revealed that Burry sold off his entire investment portfolio in the first quarter, except for one stock: cosmetic company <strong>Estee Lauder</strong>(EL -0.96%). In fact, he doubled his position in the stock during the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，當伯裏在第一季度出售了他整個投資組合時，除了一個股票：化妝品公司 <strong>雅詩蘭黛</strong>（EL -0.96%），這引起了相當大的關注。事實上，他在這一季度加倍了對該股票的持倉。</p>
</div><p>Burry didn't stop there, though. Not only did he sell his entire stock portfolio, but he also bought put options on <strong>Nvidia</strong> and several Chinese ADRs, including <strong>Alibaba</strong>, <strong>PDD Holdings</strong>, and <strong>JD.com</strong>, among others. By buying put options, he was betting that these stocks would decline in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，伯裏並沒有止步於此。他不僅出售了整個股票組合，還購買了 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和幾隻中國 ADR 的看跌期權，包括 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>、<strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京東</strong> 等。通過購買看跌期權，他是在押注這些股票的價格會下跌。</p>
</div><p>This was likely due to the uncertainty over trade tensions and tariffs, and it's unknown if Burry has since closed out these positions. If he covered the put options quickly, he would have made a nice profit in the market downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能是由於對貿易緊張局勢和關税的不確定性，目前尚不清楚伯裏是否已經平倉這些頭寸。如果他迅速平倉看跌期權，他將在市場下跌中獲得不錯的利潤。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the more relevant thing for investors today, though, is why Burry is so bullish on Estee Lauder when he was willing to sell everything else in his portfolio and essentially bet against the U.S. and Chinese markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，對於今天的投資者來説，更相關的問題是，為什麼伯裏對雅詩蘭黛如此看好，而他卻願意出售投資組合中的其他所有股票，並基本上對美國和中國市場做空。</p>
</div><h2>Beauty is in the eye of the beholder</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美在觀者眼中</h2>
</div><p>For those unfamiliar with Estee Lauder, it is a global beauty conglomerate with brands across cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and haircare. It primarily operates in the prestige segment, positioning its portfolio as a collection of high-end, luxury beauty brands. In addition to its namesake brand, it also owns Clinique, MAC, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Tom Ford Beauty, and other brands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於不熟悉雅詩蘭黛的人來説，它是一家全球美容集團，擁有多個化妝品、護膚品、香水和護髮產品品牌。它主要在高端市場運營，將其產品組合定位為一系列高檔奢侈美容品牌。除了其自有品牌外，它還擁有 Clinique、MAC、Bobbi Brown、La Mer、Tom Ford Beauty 等品牌。</p>
</div><p>Much of Estee Lauder's struggles stem from its exposure to China and the duty-free shopping retail market. The company's sales have slumped in China as consumer spending in the country following Covid has been slow to recover. However, these issues have been even more pronounced in its global travel retail business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅詩蘭黛的許多困境源於其對中國和免税零售市場的依賴。由於疫情後中國消費者支出恢復緩慢，該公司的銷售在中國大幅下滑。然而，這些問題在其全球旅行零售業務中表現得更加明顯。</p>
</div><p>A big part of Estee Lauder's growth strategy was selling its beauty products at airports and other duty-free shops throughout Asia and Europe that are frequented by Chinese travelers. COVID-19 threw a big wrench into this business, and Chinese travel has been slow to recover since. The company tried to pivot to China's duty-free hub, Hainan Island, a more local area for Chinese tourism. However, Chinese consumers remained cautious, and it ended up having too much inventory in this area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅詩蘭黛的增長戰略很大一部分是通過在亞洲和歐洲的機場及其他免税商店銷售其美容產品，這些地方是中國遊客常去的。然而，COVID-19 對這一業務造成了重大影響，中國的旅行恢復緩慢。該公司試圖轉向中國的免税中心——海南島，這是一個更本地化的中國旅遊區域。然而，中國消費者仍然保持謹慎，導致該地區庫存過剩。</p>
</div><p>This, in turn, led to discounting, which has caused margin compression. Discounting for luxury brands can also be a big mistake, as it can devalue the brand in the eyes of consumers and alienate its core customers. It can also condition customers to want to wait to buy its products when they go on sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這反過來導致了折扣，造成了利潤壓縮。對於奢侈品牌來説，折扣可能是一個大錯誤，因為這會在消費者眼中貶值品牌，並疏遠其核心客户。這也可能使客户習慣於等待產品打折時再購買。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., meanwhile, Estee Lauder has run into increased competition from newer prestige beauty brands. Brands like Drunk Elephant have built strong followings by offering trendy, ingredient-focused products that appeal to young adults and teens. Estee Lauder's brands, meanwhile, are often viewed by younger consumers as their mom's brand and not their own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，在美國，雅詩蘭黛面臨來自新興高端美容品牌的競爭加劇。像 Drunk Elephant 這樣的品牌通過提供時尚、注重成分的產品，吸引了年輕成年人和青少年，建立了強大的追隨者。而雅詩蘭黛的品牌在年輕消費者眼中往往被視為 “媽媽的品牌”，而不是他們自己的品牌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkwNzAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819070%2Fgettyimages-175388112.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Interestingly, prior to Q1, Burry had positioned his portfolio to benefit from a potential recovery in Chinese consumer demand. At the time, he held long positions in major Chinese e-commerce companies, including Alibaba, PDD Holdings, and JD.com, before reversing course and betting against the stocks by buying puts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，在第一季度之前，伯裏曾將其投資組合定位為受益於中國消費者需求潛在復甦。當時，他在主要的中國電子商務公司中持有多頭頭寸，包括阿里巴巴、PDD Holdings 和京東，隨後卻反轉方向，通過購買看跌期權對這些股票做空。</p>
</div><p>Despite his short-term actions, Burry likely still believes in the long-term recovery of the Chinese consumer. This could be one of the big reasons why he maintained and increased his position in Estee Lauder. If the current Chinese travel and consumption woes prove to be cyclical, the company's sales and earnings could bounce back sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管他的短期行為如此，伯裏可能仍然相信中國消費者的長期復甦。這可能是他為何維持並增加在雅詩蘭黛持倉的一個重要原因。如果當前中國的旅行和消費困境被證明是週期性的，該公司的銷售和盈利可能會迅速反彈。</p>
</div><p>After all, Estee Lauder still owns a solid portfolio of luxury brands that have strong global distribution. It has currently enacted what it calls a profit recovery and growth plan to transform its operating model to fund a return to sales growth and restore a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin. As part of this plan, it is also reducing costs and laying off employees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>畢竟，雅詩蘭黛仍然擁有一系列強大的奢侈品牌，具有強大的全球分銷能力。它目前實施了所謂的利潤恢復和增長計劃，以轉變其運營模式，資助銷售增長的迴歸，並恢復穩健的兩位數調整後營業利潤率。作為該計劃的一部分，它還在減少成本和裁員。</p>
</div><p>With sales down 10% and adjusted operating income plunging 27% last quarter, the company still has its work cut out for it. The biggest area of distress was still retail travel, with organic revenue falling 28% last quarter and expected to fall even further in the current quarter. Its retail travel business now makes up just a low-teens percentage of its overall business. However, it has been able to significantly reduce its elevated inventory and believes it is in a better position moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在銷售下降 10% 和調整後營業收入在上個季度暴跌 27% 的情況下，該公司仍然面臨艱鉅的任務。最大的困境仍然是零售旅行，上一季度有機收入下降 28%，預計在當前季度將進一步下降。其零售旅行業務現在僅佔其整體業務的低十幾個百分點。然而，它已經能夠顯著減少其過高的庫存，並相信自己在未來處於更好的位置。</p>
</div><h2>Should investors buy Estee Lauder stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者應該購買雅詩蘭黛股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 30 times this fiscal 2026 (ending June 2026) analyst estimates, Estee Lauder stock is not cheap on the surface. However, there has been a lot of earnings erosion in the past few years, so if it can regain some of those lost earnings, the stock could have a lot of upside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅詩蘭黛的股票在 2026 財年的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 30 倍（截至 2026 年 6 月），表面上並不便宜。然而，過去幾年盈利大幅下降，因此如果它能夠恢復一些失去的盈利，股票可能會有很大的上漲空間。</p>
</div><p>There is still a lot of work the company needs to get done, but it could be a stock worth considering for patient investors. Burry has a great track record, so I would not bet against him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司仍然需要完成很多工作，但對於耐心的投資者來説，這可能是一隻值得考慮的股票。伯裏有着出色的業績記錄，所以我不會對他做空。</p>
</div>

這位傳奇投資者剛剛對這隻股票進行了鉅額押注——你是否應該跟隨他的腳步？