<figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4bd452b5dacb02d78e0f43547d65d3fe?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1054" height="663" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4bd452b5dacb02d78e0f43547d65d3fe"/></figure><p><i>來源：TradingView</i></p><p>TradingKey - 備受期待的英偉達第一季度財報將於週三（5 月 28 日）收盤後公佈。在過去的幾個季度中，該公司在收入和利潤方面均超出了預期，但投資者的反應卻要麼冷淡，要麼甚至是負面的，這表明市場對這家 GPU 巨頭寄予了巨大的期望。</p><h3 id="g2566gs7j"><strong>收入和每股收益</strong></h3><p>預計收入為 433.8 億美元（同比增長 66%），每股收益為 74 美分（同比增長 21%）。由於中國的 H20 禁令，每股收益的增長將顯著低於之前的時期。預計將有約 55 億美元的一次性費用與庫存和採購承諾相關。</p><p>事實上，這項禁令將在整個財年對收入造成 100 億至 150 億美元的阻力。我們預計管理層將披露更多相關細節，並提供最新的收入和盈利指導。</p><h3 id="e29foftuj"><strong>利潤率</strong></h3><p>在過去四個季度中，我們看到毛利率出現了連續下降，從 2025 年第一季度的 78.35% 降至 2025 年第四季度的 73.03%，引發了對競爭護城河削弱的擔憂。毛利率壓力將在財年上半年持續，但我們預計在下半年中期，隨着新款 Blackwell 產品的全面推出以及所有供應鏈延遲和製造問題的解決，毛利率將會回升至中 70% 的水平。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b28ae34f823ed088ee81f4b870b3405d?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="704" height="415" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b28ae34f823ed088ee81f4b870b3405d"/></figure><p><i>來源：Wells Fargo Securities</i></p><p>利潤率的另一個重要方面是庫存的狀況。目前，庫存以及採購義務和供應協議佔成本的比例並不高，遠低於 2022 年供應鏈危機期間的水平。這降低了產品降價的可能性，因此對利潤率造成壓力。</p><h3 id="hwcce36tq"><strong>人工智能基礎設施支出</strong></h3><p>投資者對英偉達的最大擔憂之一是超大規模雲服務商的人工智能支出，以及由於經濟下滑或投資回報不理想是否會出現放緩。</p><p>前四大雲服務提供商今年的資本支出計劃總額超過 3180 億美元，同比增長約 19%。從亞馬遜、微軟、谷歌和 Meta 最近的財報電話會議中，我們看到對當前年度資本支出預期的輕微上調，這應該會為 NVDA 的多頭提供暫時的緩解。人工智能仍然是增長戰略的核心，支出與 Copilot、Llama 和 Gemini 等商業模型相關。</p><p>一個可能很快出現的趨勢是政府層面的人工智能支出。許多國家，從美國到歐洲和中東，正在將重點轉向發展強大的人工智能能力，這可能會成為英偉達收入的一個重要推動力，考慮到其主導市場地位。阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯正在投入數百億美元用於國家人工智能基礎設施。這與美國主導的 Stargate 項目以及歐洲最近努力在技術上趕上美國和中國的舉措相吻合。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cebcdfcef9f9e5a2524556889524525a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="868" height="421" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cebcdfcef9f9e5a2524556889524525a"/></figure><p><i>來源：Bloomberg Intelligence</i></p><p>最後，台積電的高性能計算（HPC）以及 SK 海力士和美光的高帶寬內存（HBM）業務仍在快速增長。台積電 HPC 在 2025 年第一季度增長了 70%，我們預計 HBM 在報告時也會有穩健的增長。這些產品通常與數據中心和人工智能基礎設施密切相關，使其與英偉達的表現高度相關，並且是公司數據中心業務增長的良好預測指標。</p><h3 id="0dgk2syt"><strong>估值</strong></h3><p>英偉達的估值可以從兩個角度來看 - 一是從歷史平均市盈率，二是與涵蓋整個行業的費城半導體指數（SOX）進行比較。</p><p>目前，NVDA 的交易市盈率為 24 倍，低於歷史平均水平。五年平均市盈率約為 32 倍。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2859e28ac2e93edb5b4989a761103bb3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="445" height="271" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2859e28ac2e93edb5b4989a761103bb3"/></figure><p><i>來源：FactSet</i></p><p>此外，作為市場領導者，英偉達通常以較高的溢價交易於 SOX。然而，目前的溢價僅為 20%，遠低於五年平均的 76%。考慮到英偉達生產出表現最佳的產品，並擁有以軟件為主導的競爭護城河（CUDA），他們理應享有更高的溢價。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/9d729fe7584a2e3dab4ec6de7f9895bf?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="500" height="373" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/9d729fe7584a2e3dab4ec6de7f9895bf"/></figure><p><i>來源：Bloomberg Intelligence</i></p><p>瞭解更多</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達計劃於 5 月 28 日公佈其第一季度財報，預計收入為 433.8 億美元，每股收益為 74 美分。儘管之前的財報超出預期，但由於市場預期較高，投資者反應平淡。該公司面臨來自中國 H20 禁令帶來的 100 億至 150 億美元的收入壓力以及毛利率下降的挑戰。然而，主要雲服務提供商的人工智能支出和政府的相關舉措可能會提振收入。目前，英偉達的市盈率低於其歷史平均水平，暗示其估值有上升的潛力</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg"/></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/007f877c8dc74f98bee18a2cd453f1f3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%871%20(4).jpg"/></p>
</div><p><em>Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>TradingKey - The highly-expected Nvidia earnings for the first quarter of the new fiscal year will be announced on Wednesday (28th of May) after the bell. In the past several quarters, the company managed to beat the estimates on both the top and bottom lines, however the subsequent reaction of the investors were either lukewarm or even negative, implying the enormous amount of expectations the market is putting on the GPU giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 備受期待的英偉達第一季度財報將於週三（5 月 28 日）收盤後公佈。在過去的幾個季度中，該公司在收入和利潤方面均超出了預期，但投資者的反應卻要麼冷淡，要麼甚至是負面的，這表明市場對這家 GPU 巨頭寄予了巨大的期望。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Revenue and EPS</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>收入和每股收益</strong></h3>
</div><p>The revenue is expected to be $43.38 billion (+66% year-over-year), while earnings per share to be 74 cents (+21% year-over-year). The EPS growth will be significantly lower compared with previous periods due to the China H20 ban. It was announced that there will be a one-off charge of around $5.5 billion related to inventories and purchase commits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計收入為 433.8 億美元（同比增長 66%），每股收益為 74 美分（同比增長 21%）。由於中國的 H20 禁令，每股收益的增長將顯著低於之前的時期。預計將有約 55 億美元的一次性費用與庫存和採購承諾相關。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the ban will be a $10-15 billion headwind to the revenue throughout the whole fiscal year. We do expect the management to disclose more details on this topic and provide up-to-date guidance for revenue and earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，這項禁令將在整個財年對收入造成 100 億至 150 億美元的阻力。我們預計管理層將披露更多相關細節，並提供最新的收入和盈利指導。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Margins</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>利潤率</strong></h3>
</div><p>In the last four quarters we saw a sequential decline in gross margins, from 78.35% in 2025Q1 to 73.03% in 2025Q4, raising concerns about eroding competitive moat. Gross margin pressure will continue through the first half of the fiscal year but we do expect a mean reversion in the later half to mid-70%s once the new Blackwell products are fully rolled out and all supply chain delays and manufacturing issues are sorted out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去四個季度中，我們看到毛利率出現了連續下降，從 2025 年第一季度的 78.35% 降至 2025 年第四季度的 73.03%，引發了對競爭護城河削弱的擔憂。毛利率壓力將在財年上半年持續，但我們預計在下半年中期，隨着新款 Blackwell 產品的全面推出以及所有供應鏈延遲和製造問題的解決，毛利率將會回升至中 70% 的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/9fae8352ef134444aaf40d3fcdb191d3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%872.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/9fae8352ef134444aaf40d3fcdb191d3%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%872.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Wells Fargo Securities</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：Wells Fargo Securities</em></p>
</div><p>Another important aspect for the margins is the state of the inventory. Currently, the inventory along with the purchase obligations and the supply agreements as a proportion of COGS are not at a very high level, far below what it was during the supply chain crisis in 2022. This decreases the chance of product markdown and therefore pressuring the margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利潤率的另一個重要方面是庫存的狀況。目前，庫存以及採購義務和供應協議佔成本的比例並不高，遠低於 2022 年供應鏈危機期間的水平。這降低了產品降價的可能性，因此對利潤率造成壓力。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Spending on AI Infrastructure</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>人工智能基礎設施支出</strong></h3>
</div><p>One of the biggest concerns of investors with regards to Nvidia is about AI spending by hyperscalers, and whether we will see slowdown due to economic downturn or unsatisfactory ROI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對英偉達的最大擔憂之一是超大規模雲服務商的人工智能支出，以及由於經濟下滑或投資回報不理想是否會出現放緩。</p>
</div><p>The top four cloud service providers have combined capital-spending plans this year that exceed $318 billion, up about 19% year to date. From recent earnings calls from Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, we saw slight upwards revisions in capex estimates for the current year, which should provide a temporary relief for NVDA bulls. AI remains central to growth strategies, with spending tied to commercial models like Copilot, Llama and Gemini.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前四大雲服務提供商今年的資本支出計劃總額超過 3180 億美元，同比增長約 19%。從亞馬遜、微軟、谷歌和 Meta 最近的財報電話會議中，我們看到對當前年度資本支出預期的輕微上調，這應該會為 NVDA 的多頭提供暫時的緩解。人工智能仍然是增長戰略的核心，支出與 Copilot、Llama 和 Gemini 等商業模型相關。</p>
</div><p>A trend that may soon emerge is AI spending on a government level. Many countries, from America, to Europe and the Middle East, are shifting their priority towards developing strong AI capabilities, which might happen to be a big tailwind for Nvidia revenue, considering its dominant market position. UAE and Saudi Arabia are committing tens of billions of dollars toward national AI infrastructure. This coincides with the US-led Stargate project, as well as the recent efforts of Europe to catch up technologically with the US and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個可能很快出現的趨勢是政府層面的人工智能支出。許多國家，從美國到歐洲和中東，正在將重點轉向發展強大的人工智能能力，這可能會成為英偉達收入的一個重要推動力，考慮到其主導市場地位。阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯正在投入數百億美元用於國家人工智能基礎設施。這與美國主導的 Stargate 項目以及歐洲最近努力在技術上趕上美國和中國的舉措相吻合。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/8d99dcc9e2a343c1b47499dd5f1e318b%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%873.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/8d99dcc9e2a343c1b47499dd5f1e318b%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%873.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
</div><p>Finally, TSMC High Performance Computing (HPC), as well as SK Hynix and Micron High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) businesses are still growing rapidly. TSMC HPC grew 70% in 2025Q1 and we expect solid growth for HBM once they report it. Usually these products are also closely tied with data centers and AI infrastructure, making them strongly correlated with Nvidia performance and a good predictor of the company’s Data Center segment growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，台積電的高性能計算（HPC）以及 SK 海力士和美光的高帶寬內存（HBM）業務仍在快速增長。台積電 HPC 在 2025 年第一季度增長了 70%，我們預計 HBM 在報告時也會有穩健的增長。這些產品通常與數據中心和人工智能基礎設施密切相關，使其與英偉達的表現高度相關，並且是公司數據中心業務增長的良好預測指標。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Valuation</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>估值</strong></h3>
</div><p>Nvidia's valuation can be seen from two perspectives - one is from historical average P/E and the other is compared to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) covering the whole industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的估值可以從兩個角度來看 - 一是從歷史平均市盈率，二是與涵蓋整個行業的費城半導體指數（SOX）進行比較。</p>
</div><p>Currently, NVDA is traded at 24x the estimated forward earnings, which is on the lower side versus the historical average. The five-year average is around 32x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，NVDA 的交易市盈率為 24 倍，低於歷史平均水平。五年平均市盈率約為 32 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/a4b3871bf60d419c88a3d2e9edb835c2%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%874.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/a4b3871bf60d419c88a3d2e9edb835c2%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%874.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: FactSet</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：FactSet</em></p>
</div><p>Also, as a market leader, Nvidia is usually traded at a large premium versus the SOX. However the current premium is just 20% which is much lower than the five year average of 76%. Considering that Nvidia produce the best performing product, and possesses a software-led economic moat (CUDA), they deserve a much larger premium against the rest of the semiconductor players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，作為市場領導者，英偉達通常以較高的溢價交易於 SOX。然而，目前的溢價僅為 20%，遠低於五年平均的 76%。考慮到英偉達生產出表現最佳的產品，並擁有以軟件為主導的競爭護城河（CUDA），他們理應享有更高的溢價。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/52b8b44099d0467c970f706a8d72169d%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%875.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20250526/52b8b44099d0467c970f706a8d72169d%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%875.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：Bloomberg Intelligence</em></p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Nvidia: What to Expect from Q1 Earnings? Will Investors be Disappointed Again?

- 英偉達將於 5 月 28 日公佈第一季度財報，預計收入為 433.8 億美元。  
- 受中國禁令影響，預計每股收益增長將顯著放緩。  
- AI 基礎設施支出持續增長，可能為英偉達帶來收入利好。  

英偉達：第一季度財報有哪些期待？投資者會再次感到失望嗎？