<p>在 2023 年和 2024 年，<strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -1.02%）幾乎等同於投資成功的通行證。在此期間，這家人工智能（AI）芯片巨頭的股價飆升，漲幅超過 800%。這得益於公司在高增長市場中的主導地位，推動了季度盈利的持續增長。投資英偉達就是投資 AI——投資者急於參與這一被視為下一個重大科技的領域。</p><p>然而，英偉達在今年對投資者來説並不是如此確定的選擇。與許多其他股票一樣，尤其是成長型股票，因對特朗普總統進口關税對經濟及最終企業盈利潛在影響的擔憂而下跌。英偉達的股價已經從低點反彈，但今年仍然下跌約 1%。</p><p>不過，本週，英偉達正朝着一個可能為股票指明方向的時刻邁進。我所説的是公司 2026 財年第一季度的財報。英偉達的股價會在 5 月 28 日後飆升嗎？歷史給出了明確的答案。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5f98b7960a3cdc504550bad224f5616e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5f98b7960a3cdc504550bad224f5616e"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="935wrqyms">英偉達的頂級 GPU</h2><p>不過，首先快速回顧一下英偉達的盈利表現以及整體 AI 環境。各公司正在大量投資於其 AI 項目，作為其中的一部分，它們紛紛選擇英偉達的頂級圖形處理單元（GPU）及相關產品和服務。分析師預計，隨着越來越多的公司加入 AI 的浪潮，AI 市場將在下個十年初突破 2 萬億美元。英偉達已經從 AI 熱潮中獲益匪淺，可能成為這一長期增長故事中最大的贏家之一。</p><p>到目前為止，該公司已經報告了多個季度的雙位數和三位數的收入增長，收入和淨利潤均創下紀錄。銷售利潤率也很高，毛利率超過 70%。所有這些都推動了英偉達股價的上漲。</p><p>正如我提到的，總統的關税計劃阻礙了這一勢頭，投資者擔心可能的價格上漲甚至美國經濟衰退。在這種環境下，客户可能會削減 AI 支出，這將對英偉達造成傷害。但與英國和中國達成的近期貿易協議提升了人們的樂觀情緒，認為進口關税水平不會像最初宣佈的那樣陡峭，從而避免了重大放緩。這幫助英偉達和其他成長型股票在最近幾天反彈。</p><h2 id="2kv9uo7dk">超越預期的記錄</h2><p>現在，讓我們考慮一下英偉達即將發佈的財報。這家芯片巨頭在超越分析師預期方面有着良好的記錄，並在上一個財報期間宣佈了積極的消息，例如成功推出其 Blackwell 架構。Blackwell 在那段時間內帶來了 110 億美元的收入，這是其商業化的第一個季度。</p><p>對於即將發佈的財報，我們有理由保持樂觀，同時我們已經為一個特定的負面因素做好了準備，因為英偉達幾周前已宣佈：與美國對其芯片出口中國的限制相關的 55 億美元費用。因此，這條消息不應影響財報發佈後的股價表現。</p><p>考慮到這一切，英偉達會在財報發佈後飆升嗎？查看歷史為我們提供了一些線索。我查看了英偉達在 2023 年 5 月至 2024 年 11 月期間七個季度財報發佈後的六個月內的股價表現。（我沒有包括今年 2 月的最新報告，因為六個月尚未過去。）</p><p>在前五個期間，英偉達的股價在財報發佈後六個月內飆升了雙位數，漲幅在 50% 到 90% 之間。只有在過去兩個財報發佈後，英偉達在六個月內出現了下跌——而且需要注意的是，這些下跌有兩個重要因素。</p><h2 id="zsttpybbc">最近下跌的原因</h2><p>首先，這些下跌幅度較小，在 2024 年 8 月財報發佈後的六個月內下跌不到 1%，在 2024 年 11 月財報發佈後的六個月內則為個位數。其次，這些損失主要發生在今年年初，因對特朗普關税的擔憂以及對 AI 支出未來的普遍質疑。（在包括 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 在內的大型英偉達客户重申其年度 AI 投資計劃後，這一支出問題得以解決。）</p><p>現在讓我們考慮一下這對英偉達在 5 月 28 日後的表現意味着什麼。如果歷史是正確的，英偉達在財報發佈後有望大幅飆升，這在過去最為常見。儘管如此，我們在過去兩個財報發佈後看到的下跌與關税不確定性密切相關。儘管關税情況有所改善，但在問題完全解決之前，這可能會對英偉達的股價表現構成潛在阻力。</p><p>因此，所有這些表明，歷史確實顯示英偉達可能在財報發佈後的幾個月內迎來雙位數的漲幅——但需要注意的是，意外的經濟或政治問題可能會阻礙這一進程。</p><p>不過，好消息是，歷史還告訴我們另一件事：英偉達過去總是能夠從損失中恢復並繼續上漲。公司的強大競爭地位和在高增長市場中的存在應該能幫助它再次做到這一點。如果遇到困難，這意味着無論英偉達在 5 月 28 日後是否飆升，它在長期內仍然很可能會獲勝。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票在 2023 年和 2024 年經歷了顯著增長，漲幅超過 800%，這得益於其在人工智能芯片市場的主導地位。然而，特朗普總統的進口關税引發的擔憂導致今年股價略有下滑。隨着英偉達接近其 2026 財年第一季度財報的發佈（定於 5 月 28 日），歷史數據表明股票上漲的可能性很大，因為它過去一直超出預期。儘管近期與關税相關的不確定性依然存在，但對英偉達在人工智能領域未來表現的樂觀情緒依然高漲</p>

<p>In 2023 and 2024, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.02%) pretty much equaled a ticket to an investment win. Over that time period, shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant skyrocketed, gaining more than 800%. This was thanks to the company's dominance in the high-growth market that supercharged earnings quarter after quarter. A bet on Nvidia was a bet on AI -- and investors were eager to get in on this technology that's often seen as the next big thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年和 2024 年，<strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -1.02%）幾乎等同於投資成功的通行證。在此期間，這家人工智能（AI）芯片巨頭的股價飆升，漲幅超過 800%。這得益於公司在高增長市場中的主導地位，推動了季度盈利的持續增長。投資英偉達就是投資 AI——投資者急於參與這一被視為下一個重大科技的領域。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia hasn't been such a sure thing for investors this year. Like many other stocks, particularly growth players, it's tumbled amid concern about the potential impact of President Trump's import tariffs on the economy -- and eventually corporate earnings. Nvidia shares have rebounded from lows, but they're still down about 1% for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英偉達在今年對投資者來説並不是如此確定的選擇。與許多其他股票一樣，尤其是成長型股票，因對特朗普總統進口關税對經濟及最終企業盈利潛在影響的擔憂而下跌。英偉達的股價已經從低點反彈，但今年仍然下跌約 1%。</p>
</div><p>This week, though, Nvidia is heading toward a moment that could offer the stock direction. I'm talking about the company's fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings report. Will Nvidia stock soar after May 28? History offers us a decidedly clear answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，本週，英偉達正朝着一個可能為股票指明方向的時刻邁進。我所説的是公司 2026 財年第一季度的財報。英偉達的股價會在 5 月 28 日後飆升嗎？歷史給出了明確的答案。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTkzNDAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtd29tYW4tcG9pbnRzLWF0LWNvbXB1dGVyLXdpdGgtYS1wZW4tdG8tc2hvdy1zb21ldGhpbmctdG8tYS1jb2xsZWFndWUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819340%2Fgettyimages-woman-points-at-computer-with-a-pen-to-show-something-to-a-colleague.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's top GPUs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的頂級 GPU</h2>
</div><p>First, though, a quick note about Nvidia's earnings performance so far and the general AI environment. Companies have been pouring investment into their AI programs, and as part of that, they've flocked to Nvidia for its top graphics processing units (GPUs) and related products and services. Analysts expect the AI market to roar past $2 trillion early in the next decade as more and more companies jump on board the AI train. Nvidia, which already is greatly benefiting from the AI boom, could be one of the biggest winners of this long-term growth story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，首先快速回顧一下英偉達的盈利表現以及整體 AI 環境。各公司正在大量投資於其 AI 項目，作為其中的一部分，它們紛紛選擇英偉達的頂級圖形處理單元（GPU）及相關產品和服務。分析師預計，隨着越來越多的公司加入 AI 的浪潮，AI 市場將在下個十年初突破 2 萬億美元。英偉達已經從 AI 熱潮中獲益匪淺，可能成為這一長期增長故事中最大的贏家之一。</p>
</div><p>So far, the company has reported many quarters of double- and triple-digit revenue growth, with revenue and net income reaching records. And profit on sales is high, with gross margin surpassing 70%. All of this has helped drive Nvidia stock higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，該公司已經報告了多個季度的雙位數和三位數的收入增長，收入和淨利潤均創下紀錄。銷售利潤率也很高，毛利率超過 70%。所有這些都推動了英偉達股價的上漲。</p>
</div><p>As I mentioned, the president's tariff plan halted the momentum as investors worried about potentially higher prices and even a U.S. recession. In that sort of environment, customers could cut back on AI spending, and that would hurt Nvidia. But recent trade deals with the U.K. and China have boosted optimism that import tariff levels won't be as steep as initially announced, averting a major slowdown. That's helped Nvidia and other growth stocks to rebound in recent days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我提到的，總統的關税計劃阻礙了這一勢頭，投資者擔心可能的價格上漲甚至美國經濟衰退。在這種環境下，客户可能會削減 AI 支出，這將對英偉達造成傷害。但與英國和中國達成的近期貿易協議提升了人們的樂觀情緒，認為進口關税水平不會像最初宣佈的那樣陡峭，從而避免了重大放緩。這幫助英偉達和其他成長型股票在最近幾天反彈。</p>
</div><h2>A record of beating estimates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超越預期的記錄</h2>
</div><p>Now, let's consider Nvidia's upcoming earnings report. The chip giant has a record of beating analysts' estimates and announcing positive news such as the successful launch of its Blackwell architecture during the last earnings period. Blackwell brought in $11 billion in revenue during that time, its first quarter of commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，讓我們考慮一下英偉達即將發佈的財報。這家芯片巨頭在超越分析師預期方面有着良好的記錄，並在上一個財報期間宣佈了積極的消息，例如成功推出其 Blackwell 架構。Blackwell 在那段時間內帶來了 110 億美元的收入，這是其商業化的第一個季度。</p>
</div><p>There's reason to be optimistic about the report ahead, and we're already prepared for one particular negative point since Nvidia announced it a few weeks ago: a $5.5 billion charge related to U.S. restrictions on the export of its chips to China. So that piece of news shouldn't impact stock performance following the earnings announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於即將發佈的財報，我們有理由保持樂觀，同時我們已經為一個特定的負面因素做好了準備，因為英偉達幾周前已宣佈：與美國對其芯片出口中國的限制相關的 55 億美元費用。因此，這條消息不應影響財報發佈後的股價表現。</p>
</div><p>Considering all of this, will Nvidia soar on its earnings news? A look at history offers us some clues. I took a look at Nvidia's stock performance in the six months following the seven quarterly earnings reports from May 2023 through November 2024. (I didn't include the latest report, from this February, since six months haven't yet passed.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這一切，英偉達會在財報發佈後飆升嗎？查看歷史為我們提供了一些線索。我查看了英偉達在 2023 年 5 月至 2024 年 11 月期間七個季度財報發佈後的六個月內的股價表現。（我沒有包括今年 2 月的最新報告，因為六個月尚未過去。）</p>
</div><p>During the first five periods, Nvidia stock soared in the double-digits from the report through the following six months. Gains ranged from 50% to 90%. Only after the past two earnings reports has Nvidia declined in the six-month period -- and it's important to keep two things in mind regarding these declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前五個期間，英偉達的股價在財報發佈後六個月內飆升了雙位數，漲幅在 50% 到 90% 之間。只有在過去兩個財報發佈後，英偉達在六個月內出現了下跌——而且需要注意的是，這些下跌有兩個重要因素。</p>
</div><h2>The reason behind recent declines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最近下跌的原因</h2>
</div><p>First, they've been small, at less than 1% in the six months following the August 2024 earnings report and in the single digits following the November 2024 report. And second, the losses came mainly early this year, as part of the concern about Trump's tariffs and a general question about the future of AI spending. (That spending question was resolved after big Nvidia customers including <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> reiterated their AI investment plans for the year.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，這些下跌幅度較小，在 2024 年 8 月財報發佈後的六個月內下跌不到 1%，在 2024 年 11 月財報發佈後的六個月內則為個位數。其次，這些損失主要發生在今年年初，因對特朗普關税的擔憂以及對 AI 支出未來的普遍質疑。（在包括 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 在內的大型英偉達客户重申其年度 AI 投資計劃後，這一支出問題得以解決。）</p>
</div><p>Now let's consider what this tells us about Nvidia's performance post-May 28. If history is right, Nvidia is on track to soar, and in a big way, after its earnings report as this has happened most frequently in the past. That said, the declines we've seen after the past two earnings reports were heavily linked to tariff uncertainty. Though the tariff situation has improved, until the issue is completely resolved, it could represent a potential headwind for Nvidia's stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在讓我們考慮一下這對英偉達在 5 月 28 日後的表現意味着什麼。如果歷史是正確的，英偉達在財報發佈後有望大幅飆升，這在過去最為常見。儘管如此，我們在過去兩個財報發佈後看到的下跌與關税不確定性密切相關。儘管關税情況有所改善，但在問題完全解決之前，這可能會對英偉達的股價表現構成潛在阻力。</p>
</div><p>So all of this shows us that, yes, history says Nvidia could be heading for double-digit gains in the months to follow its earnings report -- but it's important to be aware that an unexpected economic or political issue could get in the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，所有這些表明，歷史確實顯示英偉達可能在財報發佈後的幾個月內迎來雙位數的漲幅——但需要注意的是，意外的經濟或政治問題可能會阻礙這一進程。</p>
</div><p>The good news, though, is history shows us one other thing: Nvidia always has recovered from losses in the past and gone on to advance. And the company's strong competitive position and presence in a high growth market should help it do that again if it encounters tough times. And that means, whether Nvidia soars after May 28 or not, it still is very likely to win over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，好消息是，歷史還告訴我們另一件事：英偉達過去總是能夠從損失中恢復並繼續上漲。公司的強大競爭地位和在高增長市場中的存在應該能幫助它再次做到這一點。如果遇到困難，這意味着無論英偉達在 5 月 28 日後是否飆升，它在長期內仍然很可能會獲勝。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Soar After May 28? History Offers a Decidedly Clear Answer.

- Nvidia 股價在 2023 和 2024 年上漲超過 800%。  
- 受總統關税政策影響，2025 年股價下跌約 1%。  
- 歷史數據顯示，財報發佈後股價通常會大幅上漲。

英偉達會在 5 月 28 日後大幅上漲嗎？歷史給出了一個非常明確的答案