<p>第二季度最受期待的日子之一已經到來。在一系列經濟數據發佈和唐納德·特朗普總統定期更改其政府的關税和貿易政策的背景下，華爾街的人工智能（AI）寵兒 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.07%）將在今天（5 月 28 日）收盤後公佈其 2026 財年第一季度的運營結果。</p>
<p>許多投資者往往關注那些基本的關鍵數字，包括 Nvidia 在財年的第一季度的收入和每股收益（EPS），以及其第二季度和全年的指導。這些關鍵數字通常為投資者提供了一種極快的方式來評估公司過去的表現和/或未來的表現。</p>
<p>但如果你只是等待 Nvidia 的銷售和 EPS 數據，你將錯過大局。一個潛在的運營指標可能會在 5 月 28 日決定 Nvidia 股票的成敗。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 並不是偶然成為華爾街領先的 AI 股票</h2>
<p>進入 2023 年，Nvidia 是一家相當重要的科技公司，市值為 3600 億美元，因其用於高性能遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的圖形處理單元（GPU）而廣為人知。截至目前，它已成為市值 3.3 萬億美元的巨頭，毫無疑問是全球最重要的科技股票。</p>
<p>在過去兩年中，Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）GPU 及其後續產品 Blackwell GPU 一直是 AI 加速數據中心的支柱。這兩款芯片合計佔據了目前在高計算數據中心中部署的 GPU 的絕大部分。</p>
<p>但 Nvidia 的成功不僅僅是因為其市場份額——它的卓越表現源於供需法則。渴望構建 AI 數據中心基礎設施的企業發現，專注於 AI 的 GPU 供應短缺。即使全球領先的芯片製造商 <strong>台積電</strong> 以驚人的速度擴大生產能力，對 Nvidia 芯片的需求仍然超過其供應。</p>
<p>當某種商品或服務的需求超過供應時，預計該商品或服務的價格將上漲，直到需求減弱。Nvidia 在提高價格方面幾乎沒有問題，每個芯片的售價比外部競爭對手高出兩到四倍。這對公司的銷售和利潤來説是個好消息。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的創新也幫助其（及其股票）保持在頂端。首席執行官黃仁勳計劃在 2027 年前每年推出一款更強大、更節能的芯片。Hopper 和 Blackwell 之後是 Blackwell Ultra、Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra，後兩者將採用新的處理器。沒有外部競爭對手在計算能力上能與 Nvidia 相提並論。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>5 月 28 日一切都取決於這個運營指標</h2>
<p>根據近期歷史數據，Nvidia 超越華爾街共識銷售和 EPS 預測的機會高於平均水平。Nvidia 已經連續九個季度超過分析師的共識 EPS 預測。</p>
<p>但還有一個指標能更全面地反映 Nvidia 的運營健康狀況：其公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率。</p>
<p>毛利率（也稱為 “毛利潤率”）是銷售收入在扣除銷售成本後剩餘的簡單計算（以百分比表示）。例如，如果你的銷售額為 100 美元，而銷售成本為 20 美元，則你的毛利率為 80%（100 – 20 = 80，且（80/100 X 100）= 80%）。</p>
<p>自從 Hopper 成為炙手可熱的產品以來，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率飆升。在 2024 年初能夠以超過 40,000 美元的價格出售每個芯片，使其 GAAP 毛利率在 2025 財年第一季度達到 78.4% 的峯值，這反過來又幫助 Nvidia 的淨收入飆升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 毛利潤率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>然而，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率自去年同期以來發生了變化（所有季度均基於 Nvidia 的財年，財年在 1 月底結束）：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>2025 財年第一季度</strong>：78.4%</li>
<li><strong>2025 財年第二季度</strong>：75.1%</li>
<li><strong>2025 財年第三季度</strong>：74.6%</li>
<li><strong>2025 財年第四季度</strong>：73%</li>
<li><strong>2026 財年第一季度</strong>：70.6% 預估（+/- 50 個基點）</li>
</ul>
<p>客觀地説，70.6% 的 GAAP 毛利率仍然比 Nvidia 在 AI 熱潮之前的 10 年中高端波動的毛利率高出約 500 個基點。此外，該公司現在的淨銷售額遠高於一年前的 78.4% GAAP 毛利率時的水平。</p>
<p>然而，趨勢正在形成——而且並不是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。</p>
<p>Nvidia（預計）的 GAAP 毛利率在四個季度內的下降似乎與 AI 加速數據中心競爭加劇直接相關。雖然部分競爭來自外部，但更令人擔憂的是，許多核心客户正在開發自己的 AI-GPU 和 AI 解決方案。儘管這些內部開發的芯片和解決方案在計算能力上無法與 Nvidia 的硬件相提並論，但它們的成本顯著更低且沒有積壓。換句話説，這為 Nvidia 在未來的數據中心市場失去機會提供了一個不利的局面。</p>
<p>對於英偉達來説，問題的核心在於這種外部和內部競爭的結合正在逐漸（請原諒這個恰如其分的雙關語）削弱其最大的優勢：定價權。華爾街的人工智能寵兒依賴於人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性，為其 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片收取高額溢價。隨着這種稀缺性現在正在減弱，並預計在未來幾個季度會繼續減弱，英偉達的定價權可能真的會消退。我們很可能已經在公司的 GAAP 毛利率下降中見證了這一點。</p>
<p>當英偉達在 5 月 28 日收盤後公佈其財政第一季度業績時，GAAP 毛利率將揭示真相。如果其第二季度 GAAP 毛利率預測高於第一季度報告的數字，英偉達的股票將煥發新生。但如果預測顯示 GAAP 毛利率將連續第五個季度下降，英偉達的股票可能會進一步下跌。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達計劃於 5 月 28 日公佈其 2026 財年第一季度的運營結果，重點關注其 GAAP 毛利率，這是一個關鍵的運營指標。儘管英偉達在銷售和每股收益預測方面有着強勁的超越歷史，但其毛利率卻在下降，預計 2026 年第一季度為 70.6%，低於 2025 年第一季度的 78.4%。這一趨勢在人工智能加速的數據中心競爭日益激烈的背景下引發了擔憂，儘管英偉達在市場上仍然是領導者，其 GPU 的需求依然強勁</p>

<p>One of the most-anticipated days of the second quarter has arrived. Amid a flurry of economic data and President Donald Trump regularly changing his administration's tariff and trade policies, Wall Street's artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.07%) is set to report its fiscal 2026 first-quarter operating results after the closing bell today (May 28).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二季度最受期待的日子之一已經到來。在一系列經濟數據發佈和唐納德·特朗普總統定期更改其政府的關税和貿易政策的背景下，華爾街的人工智能（AI）寵兒 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.07%）將在今天（5 月 28 日）收盤後公佈其 2026 財年第一季度的運營結果。</p>
</div><p>A lot of investors tend to focus on the bread-and-butter headline numbers, which includes Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal first quarter, as well as its second-quarter and full-year guidance. These headline figures often provide an extremely quick way for investors to size up how a company performed and/or will perform moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多投資者往往關注那些基本的關鍵數字，包括 Nvidia 在財年的第一季度的收入和每股收益（EPS），以及其第二季度和全年的指導。這些關鍵數字通常為投資者提供了一種極快的方式來評估公司過去的表現和/或未來的表現。</p>
</div><p>But if you're just awaiting Nvidia's sales and EPS figures, you'll be missing the big picture. One beneath-the-surface operating metric is what has the potential to make or break Nvidia stock on May 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你只是等待 Nvidia 的銷售和 EPS 數據，你將錯過大局。一個潛在的運營指標可能會在 5 月 28 日決定 Nvidia 股票的成敗。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818957%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia didn't become Wall Street's leading AI stock by accident</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 並不是偶然成為華爾街領先的 AI 股票</h2>
</div><p>Heading into 2023, Nvidia was a reasonably important tech company with a $360 billion market cap that was prominently known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in high-performance gaming and cryptocurrency mining. As of this writing, it's a $3.3 trillion juggernaut that's arguably the most-important tech stock on the planet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進入 2023 年，Nvidia 是一家相當重要的科技公司，市值為 3600 億美元，因其用於高性能遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的圖形處理單元（GPU）而廣為人知。截至目前，它已成為市值 3.3 萬億美元的巨頭，毫無疑問是全球最重要的科技股票。</p>
</div><p>For more than two years, Nvidia's Hopper (H100) GPU and successor Blackwell GPUs have been the backbone of AI-accelerated data centers. Combined, these two chips account for the lion's share of GPUs currently deployed in high-compute data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩年中，Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）GPU 及其後續產品 Blackwell GPU 一直是 AI 加速數據中心的支柱。這兩款芯片合計佔據了目前在高計算數據中心中部署的 GPU 的絕大部分。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia isn't winning solely because of its market share -- it's excelling due to the law of supply and-demand. Businesses eager to build out their AI-data center infrastructure have found AI-focused GPUs are in short supply. Even with world-leading chip fabricator <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> expanding its production capacity at a breakneck pace, demand for Nvidia's chips continue to swamp their supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Nvidia 的成功不僅僅是因為其市場份額——它的卓越表現源於供需法則。渴望構建 AI 數據中心基礎設施的企業發現，專注於 AI 的 GPU 供應短缺。即使全球領先的芯片製造商 <strong>台積電</strong> 以驚人的速度擴大生產能力，對 Nvidia 芯片的需求仍然超過其供應。</p>
</div><p>When demand for a good or service outpaces supply, it's expected that the price of said good or service will rise until demand tapers. Nvidia has had little issue raising its prices and charging two to four times more per chip than its external rivals. That's excellent news for the company's sales and profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當某種商品或服務的需求超過供應時，預計該商品或服務的價格將上漲，直到需求減弱。Nvidia 在提高價格方面幾乎沒有問題，每個芯片的售價比外部競爭對手高出兩到四倍。這對公司的銷售和利潤來説是個好消息。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's innovation has helped keep it (and its stock) atop the pedestal, as well. CEO Jensen Huang aims to bring a more powerful and energy-efficient chip to market annually through 2027. Following the Hopper and Blackwell are Blackwell Ultra, Vera Rubin, and Vera Rubin Ultra, the latter two of which will be run on a new processor. No external competitors are particularly close to dethroning Nvidia in terms of compute abilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的創新也幫助其（及其股票）保持在頂端。首席執行官黃仁勳計劃在 2027 年前每年推出一款更強大、更節能的芯片。Hopper 和 Blackwell 之後是 Blackwell Ultra、Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra，後兩者將採用新的處理器。沒有外部競爭對手在計算能力上能與 Nvidia 相提並論。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg5NTcvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItZW5naW5lZXItZ3B1LWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWFpLWNsb3VkLXNlcnZlci1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818957%2Fdata-center-engineer-gpu-artificial-intelligence-ai-cloud-server-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Everything rests on this operating metric on May 28</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5 月 28 日一切都取決於這個運營指標</h2>
</div><p>Based on what recent history has shown, Nvidia has a better-than-average chance of surpassing Wall Street's consensus sales and EPS forecast for the fiscal first quarter. Nvidia has topped analysts' consensus EPS forecast for nine consecutive quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據近期歷史數據，Nvidia 超越華爾街共識銷售和 EPS 預測的機會高於平均水平。Nvidia 已經連續九個季度超過分析師的共識 EPS 預測。</p>
</div><p>But there's another metric that tells a more comprehensive story about Nvidia's operating health: its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但還有一個指標能更全面地反映 Nvidia 的運營健康狀況：其公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率。</p>
</div><p>Gross margin (also called &#34;gross profit margin&#34;) is a simple calculation of revenue remaining (expressed as a percentage) after deducting for cost of goods sold. For example, if you brought in $100 in sales and your cost of goods was $20, your gross margin would be 80% (100 – 20 = 80, and (80/100 X 100) = 80%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率（也稱為 “毛利潤率”）是銷售收入在扣除銷售成本後剩餘的簡單計算（以百分比表示）。例如，如果你的銷售額為 100 美元，而銷售成本為 20 美元，則你的毛利率為 80%（100 – 20 = 80，且（80/100 X 100）= 80%）。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin soared after the Hopper became the hottest thing since sliced bread. Being able to charge more than $40,000 per chip in early 2024 sent its GAAP gross margin to a peak of 78.4% during the fiscal 2025 first quarter, which in turn helped Nvidia's net income skyrocket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自從 Hopper 成為炙手可熱的產品以來，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率飆升。在 2024 年初能夠以超過 40,000 美元的價格出售每個芯片，使其 GAAP 毛利率在 2025 財年第一季度達到 78.4% 的峯值，這反過來又幫助 Nvidia 的淨收入飆升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/799afc521e48f3beb7d99a76b4860448.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 毛利潤率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>However, Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has changed course since the comparable quarter one year ago (all quarters based on Nvidia's fiscal year, which ends in late January):</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nvidia 的 GAAP 毛利率自去年同期以來發生了變化（所有季度均基於 Nvidia 的財年，財年在 1 月底結束）：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q1 2025</strong>: 78.4%</li>
<li><strong>Q2 2025</strong>: 75.1%</li>
<li><strong>Q3 2025</strong>: 74.6%</li>
<li><strong>Q4 2025</strong>: 73%</li>
<li><strong>Q1 2026</strong>: 70.6% est. (+/- 50 basis points)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>2025 財年第一季度</strong>：78.4%</li>
<li><strong>2025 財年第二季度</strong>：75.1%</li>
<li><strong>2025 財年第三季度</strong>：74.6%</li>
<li><strong>2025 財年第四季度</strong>：73%</li>
<li><strong>2026 財年第一季度</strong>：70.6% 預估（+/- 50 個基點）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>To be objective, a GAAP gross margin of 70.6% would still about 500 basis points higher than where Nvidia's gross margin had been vacillating at the high-end over the previous 10 years before the AI boom. Further, the company is generating considerably more in net sales now than it was even one year ago when it had a 78.4% GAAP gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>客觀地説，70.6% 的 GAAP 毛利率仍然比 Nvidia 在 AI 熱潮之前的 10 年中高端波動的毛利率高出約 500 個基點。此外，該公司現在的淨銷售額遠高於一年前的 78.4% GAAP 毛利率時的水平。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, a trend is being set -- and not an encouraging one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，趨勢正在形成——而且並不是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's (expected) four-quarter decline in GAAP gross margin looks to be directly related to increasing competition in AI-accelerated data centers. While some of this competition is external, what's more worrisome for Nvidia is that many of its core customers by net sales are developing their own AI-GPUs and AI solutions. Even though these internally developed chips and solutions can't hold water next to the compute potential of Nvidia's hardware, they're considerably cheaper and not backlogged. In other words, it's a recipe for Nvidia to lose out on future data center real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia（預計）的 GAAP 毛利率在四個季度內的下降似乎與 AI 加速數據中心競爭加劇直接相關。雖然部分競爭來自外部，但更令人擔憂的是，許多核心客户正在開發自己的 AI-GPU 和 AI 解決方案。儘管這些內部開發的芯片和解決方案在計算能力上無法與 Nvidia 的硬件相提並論，但它們的成本顯著更低且沒有積壓。換句話説，這為 Nvidia 在未來的數據中心市場失去機會提供了一個不利的局面。</p>
</div><p>The heart of the problem for Nvidia is that this combination of external and internal competition is steadily (pardon the apropos pun) chipping away at its biggest advantage: its pricing power. Wall Street's AI darling has relied on AI-GPU scarcity to charge an exorbitant premium for its Hopper and Blackwell chips. With this scarcity now diminishing, and expected to wane in future quarters, there's the real possibility of Nvidia's pricing power fading. Chances are that we're already witnessing this in the company's GAAP gross margin decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於英偉達來説，問題的核心在於這種外部和內部競爭的結合正在逐漸（請原諒這個恰如其分的雙關語）削弱其最大的優勢：定價權。華爾街的人工智能寵兒依賴於人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性，為其 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片收取高額溢價。隨着這種稀缺性現在正在減弱，並預計在未來幾個季度會繼續減弱，英偉達的定價權可能真的會消退。我們很可能已經在公司的 GAAP 毛利率下降中見證了這一點。</p>
</div><p>When Nvidia reports its fiscal first quarter results after the bell on May 28, its GAAP gross margin will tell the tale. If its second quarter GAAP gross margin forecast points higher than what's reported for the first quarter, Nvidia stock can breathe new life. But if the forecast calls for a fifth consecutive quarterly decline in GAAP gross margin, Nvidia stock could have further to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當英偉達在 5 月 28 日收盤後公佈其財政第一季度業績時，GAAP 毛利率將揭示真相。如果其第二季度 GAAP 毛利率預測高於第一季度報告的數字，英偉達的股票將煥發新生。但如果預測顯示 GAAP 毛利率將連續第五個季度下降，英偉達的股票可能會進一步下跌。</p>
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This Operating Metric Is Going to Make or Break Nvidia Stock on May 28

- Nvidia 將於 5 月 28 日發佈 2026 財年第一季度財報。  
- 關鍵指標為 GAAP 毛利率，預計將連續四個季度下降。  
- 競爭加劇可能影響 Nvidia 的定價能力和市場地位。  

這個運營指標將在 5 月 28 日決定 NVIDIA 股票的成敗