<p>沃倫·巴菲特自 1965 年以來一直擔任 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -0.76%）（BRK.B -1.21%）的首席執行官。他將在 2025 年底辭去這一職務，結束他為股東帶來持續、超越市場回報的輝煌歷程。</p>
<p>巴菲特傾向於投資於那些具有穩定增長、可靠收益和強大管理團隊的公司，這些管理團隊傾向於採取對股東友好的政策，比如支付股息和回購股票。因此，當伯克希爾在 2020 年首次公開募股（IPO）前購買 <strong>Snowflake</strong>（SNOW -1.07%）的股票時，許多人感到驚訝——這家雲數據倉庫巨頭幾乎不符合巴菲特的通常標準。</p>
<p>這意味着他的一個副手可能是此次購買的關鍵決策者。然而，伯克希爾·哈撒韋在 2024 年第二季度出售了其在 Snowflake 的全部股份，退出價格表明其投資幾乎沒有獲得任何收益。如果你在該集團出售時購買了 Snowflake 的股票，現在的回報率將達到 47%——但我仍然認為巴菲特和他的團隊做出了正確的決定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1MTgvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlcmluZy1vZi1hLXNub3dmbGFrZS10aGF0LWxvb2tzLWxpa2UtYS1jb21wdXRlci1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1MTgvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlcmluZy1vZi1hLXNub3dmbGFrZS10aGF0LWxvb2tzLWxpa2UtYS1jb21wdXRlci1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>不斷增長的人工智能產品和服務組合</h2>
<p>Snowflake 的旗艦產品是其數據雲，幫助企業統一來自多個雲平台（如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 網絡服務和 <strong>微軟</strong>Azure）的寶貴信息。這使得企業能夠對完整的數據集進行詳細分析，從而產生比分析存儲在不同雲平台上的碎片化數據集更有用的洞察。</p>
<p>開發最佳的人工智能（AI）軟件需要輕鬆訪問大量數據，因此 Snowflake 完全有能力幫助其客户部署這一顛覆性技術。它在 2023 年底推出了一個名為 Cortex AI 的新平台，為企業提供來自 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 Anthropic 等領先第三方開發者的大型語言模型（LLMs）的訪問。</p>
<p>企業可以將其內部數據接入這些 LLMs，以快速創建用於各種目的的 AI 軟件。但 Snowflake 繼續為 Cortex 賦予新功能。它提供了一種名為 Document AI 的工具，可以從合同和發票等非結構化來源中提取有價值的數據，企業可以將這些數據接入其 AI 模型。還有 Cortex Agents 工具，允許企業創建自定義虛擬助手以完成特定任務。</p>
<p>例如，一家企業可以訓練一個代理自動創建銷售人員與客户之間對話的記錄，然後訓練另一個代理分析這些記錄，以尋找創造更多收入的機會。在過去，這些任務需要人類員工花費數小時甚至數天來完成，這就是為什麼代理 AI 變得如此受歡迎。</p>
<p>截至 2026 財年第一季度末（4 月 30 日），Snowflake 共有 11,578 個客户，其中約 5,200 個每週使用其 AI 產品和服務。這表明考慮到 Cortex AI 平台剛剛成立不到 18 個月，採用速度非常快。</p>
<h2>收入增長放緩，鉅額虧損</h2>
<p>Snowflake 在 2026 財年第一季度的產品收入同比增長 26%，達到 9.968 億美元。這是自公司在 2020 年上市以來該指標的最慢增長速度。實際上，Snowflake 的收入增長在每個季度都持續下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>收入增長放緩並不一定是壞事，如果一家公司在營銷等方面的支出減少，從而改善其底線。但 Snowflake 並非如此，因為它繼續增加支出。該公司第一季度的運營成本增長了 26%，導致淨虧損達到 4.301 億美元。這比去年同期的淨虧損大幅增加了 35%。</p>
<p>如果 Snowflake 的支出增加導致收入增長加速，那麼其淨虧損本可以保持穩定甚至下降。然而，沒有跡象表明這一趨勢會逆轉，因為該公司預計在 2026 財年第二季度（7 月 31 日結束）收入增長將進一步放緩至 25%。</p>
<p>即使是 Snowflake 的剩餘業績義務（RPO）也顯示出疲軟的跡象。儘管在第一季度同比增長 34%，達到 66 億美元，但它們實際上從三個月前的 68 億美元的峯值下降。RPO 本質上是一個訂單積壓，預計最終會轉化為已確認的收入，因此該數字的任何下降都可能是公司未來收入疲軟的信號。</p>
<h2>Snowflake 股票價格昂貴</h2>
<p>Snowflake 以每股 120 美元的價格上市，伯克希爾·哈撒韋在其上市前購買了該股票，因此其入場價格可能在該水平附近。伯克希爾在 2024 年第二季度出售了其持股，當時股票價格約為 135 美元，這意味着在四年內僅獲得了 12.5% 的收益。像美國國債這樣的無風險資產可能會帶來更好的回報。</p>
<p>但自伯克希爾出售以來，Snowflake 的股票價格已飆升 47%，達到約 200 美元。這是否意味着巴菲特和他的團隊犯了錯誤？我認為不是，因為我認為現在的估值過高。該股票的市銷率（P/S）為 17.3，顯著高於亞馬遜、微軟和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 等雲計算和 AI 領域的領導者：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW 市銷率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>Snowflake 符合巴菲特的至少兩個標準，但兩者都有一個警告：該公司的收入增長速度相當快，但如果其當前的減速率持續下去，這種增長不會持續太久。該公司還通過股票回購計劃向股東返還資金，但如果持續虧損，這種做法也無法永遠維持。</p>
<p>另一方面，Snowflake 的估值和其鉅額虧損通常會使其完全排除在伯克希爾的投資選項之外，因此我並不驚訝於這個綜合企業最終退出了其持倉。此外，該股份在出售時僅值 8 億美元，因此在伯克希爾 2760 億美元的投資組合中只佔了微小的一部分。</p>
<p>總之，無論你是巴菲特還是普通散户投資者——一些股票在你賣出後會漲。這是投資旅程的一部分，我們必須接受準確把握市場時機是不可能的。更好的做法是關注相關企業的基本面，基於這一點，我認為伯克希爾做出了正確的決定。</p>

SNOW

<p>沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司出售了其在 Snowflake 的全部股份，此後在出售時購買的投資者獲得了 47% 的回報。Snowflake 的數據雲平台在人工智能發展方面具有良好的前景，但其收入增長正在放緩，2026 年第一季度報告的增長率為 26%，是自上市以來的最低水平。該公司還因運營成本上升報告了 4.301 億美元的重大淨虧損。儘管客户基礎不斷擴大，Snowflake 未來的收入增長似乎不確定，這引發了對其股票估值的擔憂</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has served as the CEO of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.76%) (BRK.B -1.21%) since 1965. He'll step down from the role at the end of 2025, capping off an incredible run during which he delivered consistent, market-crushing returns for its shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特自 1965 年以來一直擔任 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong>（BRK.A -0.76%）（BRK.B -1.21%）的首席執行官。他將在 2025 年底辭去這一職務，結束他為股東帶來持續、超越市場回報的輝煌歷程。</p>
</div><p>Buffett prefers to invest in companies with steady growth, reliable earnings, and strong management teams that favor shareholder-friendly policies like paying dividends and repurchasing their shares. That's why it was surprising to many when Berkshire bought <strong>Snowflake</strong>(SNOW -1.07%) stock in 2020 ahead of its initial public offering (IPO) -- the cloud data warehouse giant hardly ticked any of Buffett's usual boxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特傾向於投資於那些具有穩定增長、可靠收益和強大管理團隊的公司，這些管理團隊傾向於採取對股東友好的政策，比如支付股息和回購股票。因此，當伯克希爾在 2020 年首次公開募股（IPO）前購買 <strong>Snowflake</strong>（SNOW -1.07%）的股票時，許多人感到驚訝——這家雲數據倉庫巨頭幾乎不符合巴菲特的通常標準。</p>
</div><p>That means one of his lieutenants probably was the key decision-maker behind the purchase. However, Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire position in Snowflake in 2024's second quarter, and the exit price suggests it booked hardly any gain on the investment. Had you bought shares of Snowflake at the moment the conglomerate sold, you'd be sitting on a 47% return right now -- but I still think Buffett and his team made the right decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着他的一個副手可能是此次購買的關鍵決策者。然而，伯克希爾·哈撒韋在 2024 年第二季度出售了其在 Snowflake 的全部股份，退出價格表明其投資幾乎沒有獲得任何收益。如果你在該集團出售時購買了 Snowflake 的股票，現在的回報率將達到 47%——但我仍然認為巴菲特和他的團隊做出了正確的決定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1MTgvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlcmluZy1vZi1hLXNub3dmbGFrZS10aGF0LWxvb2tzLWxpa2UtYS1jb21wdXRlci1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819518%2Fa-digital-rendering-of-a-snowflake-that-looks-like-a-computer-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A growing portfolio of AI products and services</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不斷增長的人工智能產品和服務組合</h2>
</div><p>Snowflake's flagship product is its data cloud, which helps businesses unify their valuable information from across multiple cloud platforms such as <strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services and <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure. This allows them to perform detailed analyses on a complete data set, which produces more useful insights than analyzing fragmented data sets stored on different cloud platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 的旗艦產品是其數據雲，幫助企業統一來自多個雲平台（如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 網絡服務和 <strong>微軟</strong>Azure）的寶貴信息。這使得企業能夠對完整的數據集進行詳細分析，從而產生比分析存儲在不同雲平台上的碎片化數據集更有用的洞察。</p>
</div><p>Developing the best artificial intelligence (AI) software requires easy access to massive volumes of data, so Snowflake is perfectly positioned to help its customers deploy this game-changing technology. It launched a new platform in late 2023 called Cortex AI that provides businesses with access to large language models (LLMs) from leading third-party developers like <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開發最佳的人工智能（AI）軟件需要輕鬆訪問大量數據，因此 Snowflake 完全有能力幫助其客户部署這一顛覆性技術。它在 2023 年底推出了一個名為 Cortex AI 的新平台，為企業提供來自 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 Anthropic 等領先第三方開發者的大型語言模型（LLMs）的訪問。</p>
</div><p>Businesses can plug their internal data into those LLMs to rapidly create AI software for a range of purposes. But Snowflake continues to empower Cortex with new capabilities. It offers a tool called Document AI which extracts valuable data from unstructured sources like contracts and invoices, which businesses can plug into their AI models. Then there is the Cortex Agents tool, which allows businesses to create custom virtual assistants to complete specific tasks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企業可以將其內部數據接入這些 LLMs，以快速創建用於各種目的的 AI 軟件。但 Snowflake 繼續為 Cortex 賦予新功能。它提供了一種名為 Document AI 的工具，可以從合同和發票等非結構化來源中提取有價值的數據，企業可以將這些數據接入其 AI 模型。還有 Cortex Agents 工具，允許企業創建自定義虛擬助手以完成特定任務。</p>
</div><p>For example, a business could train an agent to autonomously create transcripts of conversations between salespeople and customers, and then train another agent to analyze those transcripts for opportunities to generate more revenue. In the past, those tasks would take human workers hours or even days to complete, which is why agentic AI is becoming so popular.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一家企業可以訓練一個代理自動創建銷售人員與客户之間對話的記錄，然後訓練另一個代理分析這些記錄，以尋找創造更多收入的機會。在過去，這些任務需要人類員工花費數小時甚至數天來完成，這就是為什麼代理 AI 變得如此受歡迎。</p>
</div><p>Snowflake had 11,578 total customers at the end of its fiscal 2026 first quarter (which ended April 30), and about 5,200 of them were using its AI products and services on a weekly basis. That suggests rapid uptake considering the Cortex AI platform is barely 18 months old.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2026 財年第一季度末（4 月 30 日），Snowflake 共有 11,578 個客户，其中約 5,200 個每週使用其 AI 產品和服務。這表明考慮到 Cortex AI 平台剛剛成立不到 18 個月，採用速度非常快。</p>
</div><h2>Decelerating revenue growth, and blowout losses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入增長放緩，鉅額虧損</h2>
</div><p>Snowflake's product revenue grew 26% year over year in its fiscal 2026 first quarter to $996.8 million. That was its slowest rate of increase on that metric since the company went public in 2020. In fact, Snowflake's revenue growth is consistently trending lower with each passing quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 在 2026 財年第一季度的產品收入同比增長 26%，達到 9.968 億美元。這是自公司在 2020 年上市以來該指標的最慢增長速度。實際上，Snowflake 的收入增長在每個季度都持續下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SNOW 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Slowing revenue growth isn't necessarily a bad thing if a company is spending less money on things like marketing to improve its bottom line. But that isn't the case with Snowflake, because it continues to ramp up its spending. The company's operating costs grew by 26% during the first quarter, which resulted in a blowout net loss of $430.1 million. That was a whopping 35% larger than its net loss from the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入增長放緩並不一定是壞事，如果一家公司在營銷等方面的支出減少，從而改善其底線。但 Snowflake 並非如此，因為它繼續增加支出。該公司第一季度的運營成本增長了 26%，導致淨虧損達到 4.301 億美元。這比去年同期的淨虧損大幅增加了 35%。</p>
</div><p>Snowflake's net loss would have remained stable or even declined if its increased spending resulted in accelerating revenue growth rather than decelerating growth. However, there is no sign of that trend reversing, because the company is forecasting even slower revenue growth of 25% in its fiscal 2026 second quarter (which ends July 31).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Snowflake 的支出增加導致收入增長加速，那麼其淨虧損本可以保持穩定甚至下降。然而，沒有跡象表明這一趨勢會逆轉，因為該公司預計在 2026 財年第二季度（7 月 31 日結束）收入增長將進一步放緩至 25%。</p>
</div><p>Even Snowflake's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) are flashing signs of weakness. Despite growing by 34% year over year to $6.6 billion during the first quarter, they actually shrank from their peak of $6.8 billion from the previous quarter three months earlier. RPOs are essentially an order backlog that can be expected to eventually convert into booked revenue, so any dip in that figure could be a signal of future weakness for the company's top line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是 Snowflake 的剩餘業績義務（RPO）也顯示出疲軟的跡象。儘管在第一季度同比增長 34%，達到 66 億美元，但它們實際上從三個月前的 68 億美元的峯值下降。RPO 本質上是一個訂單積壓，預計最終會轉化為已確認的收入，因此該數字的任何下降都可能是公司未來收入疲軟的信號。</p>
</div><h2>Snowflake stock is expensive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Snowflake 股票價格昂貴</h2>
</div><p>Snowflake went public at a price of $120 per share, and Berkshire Hathaway bought the stock right before it listed, so its entry price was probably around that level. Berkshire sold its position during the second quarter of 2024, when the stock was hovering at around $135, which translated into a gain of just 12.5% over four years. A risk-free asset like U.S. Treasuries might have yielded a better return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 以每股 120 美元的價格上市，伯克希爾·哈撒韋在其上市前購買了該股票，因此其入場價格可能在該水平附近。伯克希爾在 2024 年第二季度出售了其持股，當時股票價格約為 135 美元，這意味着在四年內僅獲得了 12.5% 的收益。像美國國債這樣的無風險資產可能會帶來更好的回報。</p>
</div><p>But Snowflake stock has soared by 47% to around $200 since Berkshire sold. Does that mean Buffett and his team made a mistake? I don't think so, because I would argue it's now overvalued. The stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 17.3, which is significantly more pricey than cloud and AI leaders like Amazon, Microsoft, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自伯克希爾出售以來，Snowflake 的股票價格已飆升 47%，達到約 200 美元。這是否意味着巴菲特和他的團隊犯了錯誤？我認為不是，因為我認為現在的估值過高。該股票的市銷率（P/S）為 17.3，顯著高於亞馬遜、微軟和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 等雲計算和 AI 領域的領導者：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SNOW 市銷率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Snowflake ticks at least two of Buffett's boxes, with a caveat on both counts: The company is growing its revenue quite fast, but that won't last long if its current rate of deceleration continues. The company is also returning money to shareholders through a stock buyback program, but that can't last forever if it keeps losing money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 符合巴菲特的至少兩個標準，但兩者都有一個警告：該公司的收入增長速度相當快，但如果其當前的減速率持續下去，這種增長不會持續太久。該公司還通過股票回購計劃向股東返還資金，但如果持續虧損，這種做法也無法永遠維持。</p>
</div><p>On the flip side, Snowflake's valuation and its steep losses would normally have excluded it as an investment option for Berkshire entirely, so I'm not surprised the conglomerate eventually exited its position. Besides, that stake was worth just $800 million at the time of sale, so it represented a tiny sliver of Berkshire's $276 billion portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，Snowflake 的估值和其鉅額虧損通常會使其完全排除在伯克希爾的投資選項之外，因此我並不驚訝於這個綜合企業最終退出了其持倉。此外，該股份在出售時僅值 8 億美元，因此在伯克希爾 2760 億美元的投資組合中只佔了微小的一部分。</p>
</div><p>In summary, it doesn't matter if you're Buffett or an average retail investor -- some stocks will rise after you sell them. That's part of the investing journey, and we have to accept that timing the market reliably is impossible. It's better to focus on the fundamentals of the business in question, and on that basis, I think Berkshire made the right call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，無論你是巴菲特還是普通散户投資者——一些股票在你賣出後會漲。這是投資旅程的一部分，我們必須接受準確把握市場時機是不可能的。更好的做法是關注相關企業的基本面，基於這一點，我認為伯克希爾做出了正確的決定。</p>
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Had You Bought This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock When Warren Buffett Sold It, You'd be Sitting on a 47% Return Now

如果你在沃倫·巴菲特賣出這隻人工智能股票時買入，現在你的回報率將達到 47%