<p>歐洲晨間快訊 - 法庭的曲折增加了關税風險</p><p>凱文·巴克蘭對歐洲和全球市場的前景進行展望</p><p>隨着我們進入這一週戲劇性法庭驚喜的尾聲，特朗普總統的關税政策似乎更多是反覆無常，最初讓投資者歡呼，但隨後又讓他們面臨更多的不確定性。</p><p>在亞洲早盤交易中，日本的日經指數的下跌尤為顯眼。東京的股票受到避險日元需求回升的額外打擊，這削弱了該指數重磅出口商的海外收入價值。</p><p>香港的恒生指數的下跌同樣引人注目，兩個基準指數基本上放棄了前一天的所有可觀漲幅。</p><p>當鮮為人知的美國國際貿易法院在週三意外阻止特朗普大部分激進關税時，理由是他超越了自己的權力，似乎有跡象表明司法機構可能對他常常不穩定的政策制定提供製衡。</p><p>但一天後，這些關税又回來了，因上訴法院在考慮案件時重新實施。這並不意味着最終裁決的前兆，但特朗普的團隊已經表示，他們有其他途徑來維持關税的有效性。</p><p>對於企業、消費者和中央銀行來説，這只是一個讓他們繼續觀望的理由，推遲已經延遲的招聘、支出或降息決策。</p><p>然而，對於美國的貿易伙伴，特朗普政府向我們保證，善意談判仍在繼續。財政部長斯科特·貝森特特別提到他今天將在華盛頓與日本代表團進行的高級別會談。</p><p>儘管特朗普持樂觀態度，但達成協議卻很困難——與英國的廣泛協議迄今為止是唯一的一個。貝森特承認與中國的談判 “有些停滯”，並補充説可能需要特朗普和中國國家主席習近平的直接參與。</p><p>圍繞關税的法庭戲劇恰逢關税收入開始上升。派博·桑德勒的唐納德·施奈德在社交媒體平台 X 上估計，關税收入的年化速度為 2550 億美元，高於約 850 億美元的常態。</p><p>這將是個好消息，因為特朗普的 “宏偉美麗法案” 中的大規模減税和支出措施即將提交參議院，已經引發了對美國財政可持續性的擔憂。</p><p>該法案的一位批評者是埃隆·馬斯克，跡象表明他在 DOGE 的工作看似安靜的退出可能帶來一些不快。</p><p>但特朗普隨後宣佈將在白宮舉行盛大的告別新聞發佈會，補充説，儘管這將是特斯拉和 SpaceX 首席執行官在政府薪酬上的最後一天，“他將永遠與我們同在”。</p><p>在週四白宮的私人會議後，特朗普與美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾之間的氣氛似乎也不再那麼沉重。儘管總統重申他認為中央銀行不降息是個錯誤，但社交媒體上沒有任何人身攻擊的言論，可能讓上個月因特朗普公開威脅解僱美聯儲主席而動盪的市場鬆了一口氣。</p><p>可能影響週五市場的關鍵發展：</p><p>-德國消費者通脹數據（5 月）</p><p>-意大利銀行行長帕內塔在羅馬發言</p><p>-美聯儲發言人包括舊金山聯邦儲備銀行行長達利、達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長洛根、亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行行長博斯蒂克和芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長古爾斯比</p>

<p>特朗普總統的關税面臨不確定性，因為美國法院最初阻止了這些關税，但上訴法院又恢復了它們。這種反覆無常增加了市場的波動性，企業也因此推遲了決策。儘管談判仍在進行中，但重大的貿易協議依然難以達成。關税收入預計將顯著上升，這引發了對美國財政可持續性的擔憂。關鍵經濟指標和美聯儲的講話預計將進一步影響市場</p>

<p>MORNING BID EUROPE-Courtroom twists add to tariff risks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲晨間快訊 - 法庭的曲折增加了關税風險</p>
</div><p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凱文·巴克蘭對歐洲和全球市場的前景進行展望</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's tariffs are more on-again than off-again as we head into the end of a dramatic week of courtroom surprises, which initially had investors cheering but then left them with little more than an additional source of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着我們進入這一週戲劇性法庭驚喜的尾聲，特朗普總統的關税政策似乎更多是反覆無常，最初讓投資者歡呼，但隨後又讓他們面臨更多的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Looking around Asia in early trading, losses to Japan's Nikkei stand out. Stocks in Tokyo were hit by an additional whammy from renewed demand for the safe-haven yen, which undercuts the value of overseas revenues for the index's heavyweight exporters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在亞洲早盤交易中，日本的日經指數的下跌尤為顯眼。東京的股票受到避險日元需求回升的額外打擊，這削弱了該指數重磅出口商的海外收入價值。</p>
</div><p>The drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also eye-catching, with both benchmarks essentially giving up all of the sizeable gains of the day before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港的恒生指數的下跌同樣引人注目，兩個基準指數基本上放棄了前一天的所有可觀漲幅。</p>
</div><p>When the little-known United States Court of International Trade on Wednesday unexpectedly blocked the bulk of Trump's aggressive levies, on the grounds that he had overstepped his authority, there was some inkling that the judiciary could provide a check on his often erratic policymaking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當鮮為人知的美國國際貿易法院在週三意外阻止特朗普大部分激進關税時，理由是他超越了自己的權力，似乎有跡象表明司法機構可能對他常常不穩定的政策制定提供製衡。</p>
</div><p>But a day later those tariffs were back, reinstated by an appeals court while it considers the case. That is by no means a foreshadowing of its eventual ruling, but Trump's team is already saying it has other avenues to keep the tariffs in effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但一天後，這些關税又回來了，因上訴法院在考慮案件時重新實施。這並不意味着最終裁決的前兆，但特朗普的團隊已經表示，他們有其他途徑來維持關税的有效性。</p>
</div><p>For businesses, consumers and central banks, it's just one more reason to sit on their hands, pushing out already delayed decisions on hiring, spending or cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於企業、消費者和中央銀行來説，這只是一個讓他們繼續觀望的理由，推遲已經延遲的招聘、支出或降息決策。</p>
</div><p>For U.S. trade partners, though, the Trump administration assures us that good-faith negotiations continue undeterred. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed specifically to high-level talks he will have with a Japanese delegation in Washington later today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，對於美國的貿易伙伴，特朗普政府向我們保證，善意談判仍在繼續。財政部長斯科特·貝森特特別提到他今天將在華盛頓與日本代表團進行的高級別會談。</p>
</div><p>Despite Trump's optimism, deals have been hard to come by - a broad agreement with Britain is the only one so far. And Bessent acknowledged talks with China are &#34;a bit stalled&#34;, adding they may require the direct involvement of Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管特朗普持樂觀態度，但達成協議卻很困難——與英國的廣泛協議迄今為止是唯一的一個。貝森特承認與中國的談判 “有些停滯”，並補充説可能需要特朗普和中國國家主席習近平的直接參與。</p>
</div><p>The courtroom drama around tariffs came just as tariff revenues were starting to pick up. Donald Schneider at Piper Sandler on social media platform X this week estimated them at an annualised pace of $255 billion, up from a norm of about $85 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圍繞關税的法庭戲劇恰逢關税收入開始上升。派博·桑德勒的唐納德·施奈德在社交媒體平台 X 上估計，關税收入的年化速度為 2550 億美元，高於約 850 億美元的常態。</p>
</div><p>That would be welcome news as the sweeping tax cuts and spending measures in Trump's &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34;, which is about to go to the Senate, have been fanning worries about U.S. fiscal sustainability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將是個好消息，因為特朗普的 “宏偉美麗法案” 中的大規模減税和支出措施即將提交參議院，已經引發了對美國財政可持續性的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>One critic of the bill has been Elon Musk, and there were signs that what looked to be a quiet exit from his work at DOGE might carry some bad blood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該法案的一位批評者是埃隆·馬斯克，跡象表明他在 DOGE 的工作看似安靜的退出可能帶來一些不快。</p>
</div><p>But Trump has since announced a big sending off with a joint press conference at the Oval Office for later today, adding that although it'll be the Tesla and SpaceX CEO's last day on the government payroll, &#34;he will always be with us&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特朗普隨後宣佈將在白宮舉行盛大的告別新聞發佈會，補充説，儘管這將是特斯拉和 SpaceX 首席執行官在政府薪酬上的最後一天，“他將永遠與我們同在”。</p>
</div><p>The air also seems less heavy between Trump and Fed Chair Jay Powell following a private meeting in the Oval Office on Thursday. While the president reiterated his feeling that the central bank is making a mistake by not lowering rates, the lack of any name-calling in social media posts afterwards may have come as a relief to markets that were roiled last month by Trump's public threats to fire the Fed chief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週四白宮的私人會議後，特朗普與美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾之間的氣氛似乎也不再那麼沉重。儘管總統重申他認為中央銀行不降息是個錯誤，但社交媒體上沒有任何人身攻擊的言論，可能讓上個月因特朗普公開威脅解僱美聯儲主席而動盪的市場鬆了一口氣。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影響週五市場的關鍵發展：</p>
</div><p>-Germany consumer inflation data (May)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-德國消費者通脹數據（5 月）</p>
</div><p>-Bank of Italy Governor Panetta speaks in Rome</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-意大利銀行行長帕內塔在羅馬發言</p>
</div><p>-Fed speakers include San Francisco Fed President Daly, Dallas Fed President Logan, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-美聯儲發言人包括舊金山聯邦儲備銀行行長達利、達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長洛根、亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行行長博斯蒂克和芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長古爾斯比</p>
</div><p>Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想跟上最新的關税新聞嗎？</p>
</div><p>Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們的新每日新聞摘要提供了影響全球貿易的市場動態頭條的概述。請在此註冊關税觀察 here。</p>
</div><p>Projected U.S. tariff revenues 2025-2034 https://reut.rs/4koDI8k</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計美國關税收入 2025-2034 https://reut.rs/4koDI8k</p>
</div><p>(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（凱文·巴克蘭撰寫；埃德蒙·克拉曼編輯）</p>
</div>

MORNING BID EUROPE-Courtroom twists add to tariff risks

- 特朗普的關税政策反覆無常，增加了市場的不確定性。  
- 日本和香港股市因避險需求下跌，影響出口企業收益。  
- 美國關税收入預計年化達 2550 億美元，財政可持續性引發擔憂。  

歐洲早間競標——法庭上的曲折增加了關税風險