<p>十多年來，<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.76%）一直是全球市值最大的公司。儘管截至目前它的市值仍為 3 萬億美元，但在過去幾年中，隨着雲計算和人工智能（AI）計算芯片的迅猛發展，它已被 <strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>英偉達</strong> 超越。</p>
<p>這是市場歷史上最長的統治之一，但蘋果作為市值領導者的地位正式宣告結束。它會東山再起，重新奪回第一的位置嗎？至少在接下來的幾年裏，投資者的答案相當明確。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4OTcvaXBob25lLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4OTcvaXBob25lLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>增長速度低於同行</h2>
<p>為了將蘋果與其他市值萬億美元的同行進行比較，首先要關注增長。微軟在過去三年中收入增長了 36%。英偉達的收入增長超過 300%。而蘋果呢？在過去三年中，其收入僅增長了 3.3%，幾乎沒有增長，遠遠落後於通貨膨脹率。每年購買 iPhone 的消費者越來越少，而像 Vision Pro 這樣的新產品則遭遇了失敗。</p>
<p>看起來這種情況在未來幾年也將持續。微軟和英偉達在人工智能及其對雲計算和半導體產品需求的影響中受益匪淺，而這兩家公司都是該領域的領導者。蘋果未能在這些快速增長的領域中佔據任何份額，這也是為什麼這些其他的 “七大奇蹟” 股票在市值上超越了它。如果這些趨勢持續下去，其他雲計算和 AI 公司如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 可能會超過蘋果，使其股票在市值排名中進一步下滑。</p>
<h2>估值是否更便宜？</h2>
<p>增長並不是股票的全部，投資者還需要考慮估值以及蘋果、微軟和英偉達當前的盈利倍數。一方面，看看市盈率（P/E），蘋果的市盈率為 31，遠低於微軟的 35 和英偉達的 46。這使得蘋果的股票在一定程度上顯得更便宜，並可能幫助其在市值競爭中重新奪回一些地盤。</p>
<p>然而，很可能這兩家競爭對手由於每股收益（EPS）增長更快，應該以更高的盈利倍數進行交易。與收入類似，微軟和英偉達的每股收益增長速度遠快於蘋果，而蘋果的每股收益在過去幾年幾乎沒有變化。預計這種情況將在未來五年內繼續。</p>
<p>蘋果在未來幾年可能會看到其每股收益下降。其高利潤的服務和軟件收入正受到反壟斷訴訟的攻擊。App Store 被裁定為壟斷，蘋果現在被迫允許第三方支付處理器在移動應用中使用。由於針對谷歌的當前訴訟，其與谷歌的鉅額默認搜索引擎地位支付也面臨被取消的風險。這兩項發展可能會在未來幾年內削弱蘋果的盈利能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益稀釋（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>為什麼蘋果不會重新奪回全球最大公司的地位</h2>
<p>我認為蘋果不太可能重新奪回市值排行榜的王座。它幾乎沒有增長途徑來推動收入增長，而像英偉達這樣的公司在最新的季度業績中實現了 69% 的年收入增長。這種對比意味着在市值方面，蘋果將在未來幾年進一步落後於英偉達和微軟。</p>
<p>目前，蘋果是一隻風險較大的股票。它增長緩慢，市盈率較高，並且面臨可能影響未來盈利能力的風險。暫時避免購買這隻股票。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果曾是市值最大的公司，如今已被微軟和英偉達超越，過去三年的收入增長停滯在 3.3%。儘管其市盈率為 31，低於競爭對手，但缺乏增長途徑以及來自反壟斷訴訟的潛在盈利風險表明，蘋果不太可能重新奪回其領先地位。分析師建議投資者避免購買蘋果股票，因為其增長緩慢且估值偏高，面臨着人工智能和雲計算領域日益激烈的競爭</p>

<p>For more than a decade, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.76%) was the largest company in the world by market capitalization. And while it still has a market cap of $3 trillion as of this writing, it has been surpassed by <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> in the last few years as cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) computer chips take the market by storm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十多年來，<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.76%）一直是全球市值最大的公司。儘管截至目前它的市值仍為 3 萬億美元，但在過去幾年中，隨着雲計算和人工智能（AI）計算芯片的迅猛發展，它已被 <strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>英偉達</strong> 超越。</p>
</div><p>It was one of the longest reigns in market history, but Apple's status as top market cap leader has officially come to an end. Will it make a comeback and reclaim its No. 1 spot? In the next few years, at least, the answer is quite clear for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是市場歷史上最長的統治之一，但蘋果作為市值領導者的地位正式宣告結束。它會東山再起，重新奪回第一的位置嗎？至少在接下來的幾年裏，投資者的答案相當明確。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk4OTcvaXBob25lLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819897%2Fiphone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Slower growth than its peers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增長速度低於同行</h2>
</div><p>In order to compare Apple with other trillion-dollar market cap peers, the first thing to do is look at growth. Microsoft has grown its revenue by 36% over the last three years. Nvidia has grown its revenue by over 300%. Apple? Its revenue is only up 3.3% in the last three years, not growing much at all and greatly trailing the rate of inflation. Fewer consumers are buying iPhones every year while new products like the Vision Pro flopped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了將蘋果與其他市值萬億美元的同行進行比較，首先要關注增長。微軟在過去三年中收入增長了 36%。英偉達的收入增長超過 300%。而蘋果呢？在過去三年中，其收入僅增長了 3.3%，幾乎沒有增長，遠遠落後於通貨膨脹率。每年購買 iPhone 的消費者越來越少，而像 Vision Pro 這樣的新產品則遭遇了失敗。</p>
</div><p>It looks like this will continue over the next few years as well. Microsoft and Nvidia are benefiting immensely from AI and its impact on demand for cloud computing and semiconductor products, where both companies are leaders. Apple has failed to capture any share of these rapidly growing sectors, which is why these other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks are charging ahead of it in market capitalization. If these trends hold, the other cloud and AI players such as <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> may pass Apple and send the stock further down the market cap rankings list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看起來這種情況在未來幾年也將持續。微軟和英偉達在人工智能及其對雲計算和半導體產品需求的影響中受益匪淺，而這兩家公司都是該領域的領導者。蘋果未能在這些快速增長的領域中佔據任何份額，這也是為什麼這些其他的 “七大奇蹟” 股票在市值上超越了它。如果這些趨勢持續下去，其他雲計算和 AI 公司如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 可能會超過蘋果，使其股票在市值排名中進一步下滑。</p>
</div><h2>Is the valuation cheaper?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值是否更便宜？</h2>
</div><p>Growth is not the entire picture with a stock. investors also need to consider valuation and the current earnings multiples of Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. On the one hand, look at the trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and see that Apple's P/E of 31 is well below Microsoft's P/E of 35 and Nvidia's P/E of 46. This would make Apple stock cheaper in a vacuum and could help it regain some ground in the market cap race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增長並不是股票的全部，投資者還需要考慮估值以及蘋果、微軟和英偉達當前的盈利倍數。一方面，看看市盈率（P/E），蘋果的市盈率為 31，遠低於微軟的 35 和英偉達的 46。這使得蘋果的股票在一定程度上顯得更便宜，並可能幫助其在市值競爭中重新奪回一些地盤。</p>
</div><p>However, in all likelihood, these two competitors deserve to trade at higher earnings multiples than Apple because of faster growth in earnings per share (EPS). Similar to revenue, both Microsoft and Nvidia have grown EPS at a much faster pace than Apple while Apple's EPS has barely budged in the last few years. Expect this to continue over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，很可能這兩家競爭對手由於每股收益（EPS）增長更快，應該以更高的盈利倍數進行交易。與收入類似，微軟和英偉達的每股收益增長速度遠快於蘋果，而蘋果的每股收益在過去幾年幾乎沒有變化。預計這種情況將在未來五年內繼續。</p>
</div><p>Apple may see its EPS fall over the next few years. Its high-margin services and software revenue is under attack from antitrust lawsuits. The App Store was ruled a monopoly and Apple is now forced to allow third-party payment processors on mobile applications. Its huge payment from Google for default search engine status is also at risk of getting nullified due to a current lawsuit against Google. Both of these developments may hurt Apple's earnings power over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在未來幾年可能會看到其每股收益下降。其高利潤的服務和軟件收入正受到反壟斷訴訟的攻擊。App Store 被裁定為壟斷，蘋果現在被迫允許第三方支付處理器在移動應用中使用。由於針對谷歌的當前訴訟，其與谷歌的鉅額默認搜索引擎地位支付也面臨被取消的風險。這兩項發展可能會在未來幾年內削弱蘋果的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7c70f8cada09bd686ad8a474ef9705c5.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Diluted (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益稀釋（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Why Apple will not reclaim its status as the largest company in the world</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼蘋果不會重新奪回全球最大公司的地位</h2>
</div><p>I think it is unlikely that Apple will reclaim its throne atop the market cap leaderboard. It has minimal growth avenues to drive revenue higher while a company like Nvidia is posting 69% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarterly results. This dichotomy means that when it comes to market cap, Apple will fall further behind Nvidia and Microsoft in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為蘋果不太可能重新奪回市值排行榜的王座。它幾乎沒有增長途徑來推動收入增長，而像英偉達這樣的公司在最新的季度業績中實現了 69% 的年收入增長。這種對比意味着在市值方面，蘋果將在未來幾年進一步落後於英偉達和微軟。</p>
</div><p>Apple is a risky stock to buy right now. It is growing slowly, trades at a premium P/E ratio, and has risks coming that could hurt its future profitability. Avoid buying this stock for the time being.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，蘋果是一隻風險較大的股票。它增長緩慢，市盈率較高，並且面臨可能影響未來盈利能力的風險。暫時避免購買這隻股票。</p>
</div>

Will Apple Reclaim Its Title as the Largest Company in the World by Market Cap? The Answer May Surprise You.

- 蘋果公司市值已被微軟和英偉達超越，增長乏力。  
- 過去三年，蘋果營收僅增長 3.3%，遠低於同行。  
- 未來幾年，蘋果面臨盈利能力下降的風險，難以重返市場首位。

蘋果是否能夠重新成為全球市值最大的公司？答案可能會讓你意想不到