<p><strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT 0.27%）首次在 1998 年 9 月成為全球市值最大的公司。它在不到 18 個月的時間內被取代。但這家軟件巨頭在 2025 年重新回到了頂峯。</p>
<p>我認為這次微軟的統治也不會持續太久。此外，我預測未來十年內，以下三隻股票的價值將超過微軟。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzMzgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC0yLXBlb3BsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzMzgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC0yLXBlb3BsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 英偉達</h2>
<p>我懷疑 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 0.51%）很快就會超過微軟。這可能在幾天或幾周內就會發生。英偉達無疑處於最佳位置，市值已經超過 3.3 萬億美元，準備將微軟拉下馬。</p>
<p>英偉達要想奪回第一的位置需要什麼？其實不需要太多。微軟業務的任何小問題都可能使英偉達重新獲得去年短暫保持的全球市值最大公司的地位。</p>
<p>然而，我認為微軟並不一定要出錯才能發生這種情況。英偉達有望成為多個人工智能（AI）趨勢的最大受益者，尤其是快速採用能夠推理的 AI 代理。這些 AI 代理需要巨大的計算能力。英偉達的 GPU 仍然是市場上用於 AI 推理的最強大芯片。</p>
<p>如果英偉達成為首個市值達到 5 萬億美元的公司，我一點也不會感到驚訝。當然，對中國的 AI 芯片出口限制在一定程度上會影響其增長。然而，我認為這種逆風不會阻止英偉達在未來十年內變得更大。</p>
<h2>2. 蘋果</h2>
<p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.14%）在過去十年中大部分時間裏都是全球最大的公司。微軟在此期間是其主要競爭對手。儘管蘋果的市值現在小於微軟和英偉達，但我認為到 2035 年，iPhone 製造商不會排在第三位或更低。</p>
<p>懸在蘋果頭上的大問題是：公司下一個重大突破產品是什麼？蘋果手錶取得了成功，但與 iPhone 相比並不在同一水平。蘋果的 Vision Pro 混合現實頭顯在商業上表現不佳。其被稱為蘋果智能的生成 AI 功能也沒有提供許多投資者所希望的火花。</p>
<p>我認為智能眼鏡可能是蘋果期待已久的下一個巨大成功。傳言稱該公司計劃最早在 2026 年底推出首款增強 AI 的眼鏡。這些眼鏡將與 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 Ray-Ban AI 眼鏡競爭。</p>
<p>但據報道，蘋果也在研發支持增強現實（AR）的智能眼鏡。這可能是公司真正的遊戲改變者。如果蒂姆·庫克和他的團隊能夠利用 Vision Pro 上使用的一些技術，蘋果可能會推出幾乎與多年前的 iPhone 一樣必不可少的智能眼鏡。</p>
<h2>3. 亞馬遜</h2>
<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN 0.81%）從未成為全球最大的公司。不過，在未來十年內，它並不一定需要成為最大公司就能超過微軟。</p>
<p>不久前，我認為微軟能夠在未來幾年內保持其市值優勢，領先於亞馬遜。為什麼我改變了主意？主要是因為我懷疑亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）能夠比我之前預期的更強有力地保持在雲服務市場的領導地位。</p>
<p>我觀點轉變的部分原因是微軟與 OpenAI 之間的關係似乎在惡化。如果沒有 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，我不相信微軟今天會擁有最大的市值。兩家公司之間的聯繫越不緊密，我就越不相信微軟 Azure 能夠縮小與 AWS 之間的市場份額差距。</p>
<p>不過，我現在對亞馬遜更樂觀的另一個原因是，該公司繼續全力以赴。它的 AI 計劃令人印象深刻，包括開發自己的 AI 芯片。該公司對底線的關注正在取得成效。亞馬遜還在擴展新業務，最近推出的 Project Kuiper 衞星將提供全球互聯網接入，便是一個很好的例子。</p>
<p>當然，亞馬遜必須在未來十年內比微軟增長得更快，才能使其市值變得更大。然而，我預測這正是將要發生的事情。</p>

<p>文章預測，三隻股票——英偉達、蘋果和亞馬遜——將在未來十年內超越微軟的市值。英偉達預計將受益於人工智能趨勢，市值可能達到 5 萬億美元。蘋果預計將因智能眼鏡的潛在突破而反彈，而亞馬遜的 AWS 預計將繼續保持其雲市場的領導地位，得益於強大的人工智能舉措和新的業務擴展。作者認為，這些因素將使這些公司在未來幾年內超越微軟</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.27%) first became the world's biggest company based on market cap in September 1998. It stayed No. 1 for less than 18 months before being dethroned. But the software giant has clawed its way back to the top in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT 0.27%）首次在 1998 年 9 月成為全球市值最大的公司。它在不到 18 個月的時間內被取代。但這家軟件巨頭在 2025 年重新回到了頂峯。</p>
</div><p>I don't think Microsoft's reign will last very long this time, either. What's more, I predict that the following three stocks will be worth more than Microsoft 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為這次微軟的統治也不會持續太久。此外，我預測未來十年內，以下三隻股票的價值將超過微軟。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAzMzgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC0yLXBlb3BsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820338%2Fdata-center-with-2-people.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 英偉達</h2>
</div><p>I suspect <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.51%) will move past Microsoft quite soon. It could even happen in a matter of days or weeks. Nvidia is certainly in the best position to knock Microsoft off its perch with its market cap already topping $3.3 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我懷疑 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 0.51%）很快就會超過微軟。這可能在幾天或幾周內就會發生。英偉達無疑處於最佳位置，市值已經超過 3.3 萬億美元，準備將微軟拉下馬。</p>
</div><p>What will it take for Nvidia to take the top spot? Not much. Any hiccup with Microsoft's business could be enough to enable Nvidia to regain the position it briefly held last year as the world's largest company based on market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達要想奪回第一的位置需要什麼？其實不需要太多。微軟業務的任何小問題都可能使英偉達重新獲得去年短暫保持的全球市值最大公司的地位。</p>
</div><p>However, I don't think Microsoft has to stumble for it to happen. Nvidia is poised to be the biggest beneficiary of several artificial intelligence (AI) trends, notably including the rapid adoption of AI agents that can reason. These AI agents require enormous computing power. Nvidia's GPUs remain the most powerful chips on the market for AI inference used by AI agents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我認為微軟並不一定要出錯才能發生這種情況。英偉達有望成為多個人工智能（AI）趨勢的最大受益者，尤其是快速採用能夠推理的 AI 代理。這些 AI 代理需要巨大的計算能力。英偉達的 GPU 仍然是市場上用於 AI 推理的最強大芯片。</p>
</div><p>It won't surprise me in the least if Nvidia becomes the first company with a market cap of $5 trillion. Sure, the restrictions on AI chip exports to China will hurt its growth to some extent. However, I don't think this headwind will keep Nvidia from becoming much larger over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果英偉達成為首個市值達到 5 萬億美元的公司，我一點也不會感到驚訝。當然，對中國的 AI 芯片出口限制在一定程度上會影響其增長。然而，我認為這種逆風不會阻止英偉達在未來十年內變得更大。</p>
</div><h2>2. Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 蘋果</h2>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.14%) dominated as the world's largest company throughout most of the last 10 years. Microsoft was its main rival for the No. 1 position during this period. Although Apple's market cap is now smaller than both Microsoft's and Nvidia's, I think the iPhone maker won't be in third place or lower by 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.14%）在過去十年中大部分時間裏都是全球最大的公司。微軟在此期間是其主要競爭對手。儘管蘋果的市值現在小於微軟和英偉達，但我認為到 2035 年，iPhone 製造商不會排在第三位或更低。</p>
</div><p>The big question hovering over Apple is: What's the next big breakthrough product for the company? Apple Watch has been successful, but it isn't in the same league as the iPhone. Apple's Vision Pro mixed-reality headset has been a commercial disappointment. Its generative AI functionality, branded as Apple Intelligence, hasn't provided the spark that many investors hoped it would, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>懸在蘋果頭上的大問題是：公司下一個重大突破產品是什麼？蘋果手錶取得了成功，但與 iPhone 相比並不在同一水平。蘋果的 Vision Pro 混合現實頭顯在商業上表現不佳。其被稱為蘋果智能的生成 AI 功能也沒有提供許多投資者所希望的火花。</p>
</div><p>I think smart glasses just might be the much-anticipated next huge hit for Apple. Rumors are circulating that the company plans to launch its first AI-enhanced glasses as early as late 2026. These glasses will compete against <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> Ray-Ban AI glasses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為智能眼鏡可能是蘋果期待已久的下一個巨大成功。傳言稱該公司計劃最早在 2026 年底推出首款增強 AI 的眼鏡。這些眼鏡將與 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 Ray-Ban AI 眼鏡競爭。</p>
</div><p>But Apple is also reportedly working on smart glasses that support augmented reality (AR). This could be the real game-changer for the company. If Tim Cook and his team can leverage some of the technology used on Vision Pro, Apple just might be able to launch smart glasses that become nearly as must-have as the iPhone years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但據報道，蘋果也在研發支持增強現實（AR）的智能眼鏡。這可能是公司真正的遊戲改變者。如果蒂姆·庫克和他的團隊能夠利用 Vision Pro 上使用的一些技術，蘋果可能會推出幾乎與多年前的 iPhone 一樣必不可少的智能眼鏡。</p>
</div><h2>3. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.81%) has never been the world's largest company. It doesn't necessarily have to be to leap past Microsoft over the next 10 years, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN 0.81%）從未成為全球最大的公司。不過，在未來十年內，它並不一定需要成為最大公司就能超過微軟。</p>
</div><p>It wasn't too long ago that I thought Microsoft would be able to retain its market cap advantage over Amazon for years to come. Why have I changed my mind? Mainly because I suspect that Amazon Web Services (AWS) will be able to hold on to its leadership in the cloud services market more strongly than I anticipated in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不久前，我認為微軟能夠在未來幾年內保持其市值優勢，領先於亞馬遜。為什麼我改變了主意？主要是因為我懷疑亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）能夠比我之前預期的更強有力地保持在雲服務市場的領導地位。</p>
</div><p>Part of my shifting opinion is due to Microsoft's seemingly deteriorating relationship with OpenAI. Without OpenAI's ChatGPT, I don't believe Microsoft would claim the largest market cap today. The less tight the bond between the two companies, the less confidence I have that Microsoft Azure will be able to narrow the market share gap with AWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我觀點轉變的部分原因是微軟與 OpenAI 之間的關係似乎在惡化。如果沒有 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，我不相信微軟今天會擁有最大的市值。兩家公司之間的聯繫越不緊密，我就越不相信微軟 Azure 能夠縮小與 AWS 之間的市場份額差距。</p>
</div><p>Another reason why I'm more optimistic about Amazon now, though, is that the company continues to fire on all cylinders. Its AI initiatives are impressive, including the development of its own AI chips. The company's focus on the bottom line is paying off. Amazon is also expanding into new businesses, with the recent launch of its Project Kuiper satellites that will provide global internet access serving as a great example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，我現在對亞馬遜更樂觀的另一個原因是，該公司繼續全力以赴。它的 AI 計劃令人印象深刻，包括開發自己的 AI 芯片。該公司對底線的關注正在取得成效。亞馬遜還在擴展新業務，最近推出的 Project Kuiper 衞星將提供全球互聯網接入，便是一個很好的例子。</p>
</div><p>Granted, Amazon must grow significantly faster than Microsoft over the next 10 years for its market cap to become larger. However, I predict that's exactly what will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，亞馬遜必須在未來十年內比微軟增長得更快，才能使其市值變得更大。然而，我預測這正是將要發生的事情。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 3 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Microsoft 10 Years From Now

- 微軟在 2025 年重新成為全球市值最高公司，但預計其地位不持久。  
- 三家公司可能在未來十年超越微軟，包括英偉達、蘋果和亞馬遜。  
- 英偉達受益於 AI 趨勢，蘋果有望推出智能眼鏡，亞馬遜雲服務持續領先。  

預測：未來十年內價值將超過微軟的三隻股票